01-04-2005 11:03									#1
	A simple reason why Bush's SS plan is stupid Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Now, unless I'm missing something this is how things stand:

1. $s that are currently going to support people on SS are diverted into government-supervised private acount thingies.

2. Since that money is now going into private acount thingies instead of supporting people on SS there's going to be a huge-ass shortfall.

3. To cover the shortfall, the government prints huge stacks of treasury bonds and sells them to investors.

4. The private accounts then make a ****-load of money, since stocks have a higher return than treasury bonds and all this money makes everything happy and wonderful.

So basically the whole thing is based on the premise that stocks are a better investment than government bonds (the current content of the SS trust fund) and that by having SS taxes go into buying stocks everyone's going to make a ****-load of money, right? So basically the government is gambling that stocks will have a significantly higher future return than treasury bonds? Or am I missing something?

But in order to make this whole thing work you need someone to buy all those HUGE stacks of treasury bonds that will be needed to fund the SS checks of the current retirees while the money that's going to them now is diverted into private account thingies. These are the very same treasury bonds that are apparently a crap investment.

So, in short, for Bush's SS plan to work you have the smart government buying the high yield stocks and the stupid private investors buying the low yield government bonds. The whole plan doesn't make any sense unless it assumes that the government is a smarter invester than private investors who'll need to buy ****-loads of treasury bonds in order to fund the whole thing.

WTF! Isn't that kind of thinking supposed to be punishable by death by republicans or something?

	01-04-2005 11:05									#2
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Not if its a scam, Dave.

	01-04-2005 11:07									#3
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Not if its a scam, Dave.

So how would it be different from the system we have now then?

	01-04-2005 11:07									#4
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It's not a scam. it's a good plan for smart people such as myself, while stupid people lose all their money in the stock market on stupid stock picks.

	01-04-2005 11:08									#5
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc So how would it be different from the system we have now then?

But Bush can't be THAT stupid? Can he? To me his plan looks just surreally stupid, is there something I'm missing?

	01-04-2005 11:10									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident It's not a scam. it's a good plan for smart people such as myself, while stupid people lose all their money in the stock market on stupid stock picks.

But then who buys all the treasury bonds that would be necessary to fund your stock picks?

	01-04-2005 11:11									#7
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc So how would it be different from the system we have now then?

The current system works and isn't a scam.

	01-04-2005 11:13									#8
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara The current system works and isn't a scam.

I have a bridge in New York to sell you.

	01-04-2005 11:13									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Boshko But then who buys all the treasury bonds that would be necessary to fund your stock picks?

The Chinese, obviously.

	01-04-2005 11:14									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Boshko But then who buys all the treasury bonds that would be necessary to fund your stock picks?

errr, perhaps I'm misunderstanding how this works. I thought we'd be using our social security money for this, not goverment money.

	01-04-2005 11:14									#11
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i think the biggest problem is it cost 1 trillion more dollars than SS simply running out.

	01-04-2005 11:15									#12
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Personally, I'd cut benefits and raise the retirement age.

	01-04-2005 11:17									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident errr, perhaps I'm misunderstanding how this works. I thought we'd be using our social security money for this, not goverment money.

Where do you think your Social Security money is going now? Into a big hole where the government keeps it until you get it back? Right now its going to pay for the SS checks of someone's grandmother. If you buy stocks with it instead then the government has the cover the shortfall by printing a **** load of bonds. To in a manner of speaking, the government in financing your stock-buying by printing treasury bonds.

Who the hell is going to buy these bonds? I think the Chinese are losing patience with this game, there've been making sounds about diversifying their foreign currency reserves and making the Yuan pegged to a basket of currencies instead of a dollar.

	01-04-2005 11:20									#14
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Personally, I'd cut benefits and raise the retirement age.

then I'll stop paying into social security (if I could, but the goverment forces me to pay ). I'll be lucky to live to 65. The goverment is just stealing my money.

It's a ****ing ponzi scheme. yeah, yeah- I know that's not true. It won't be bad once we get these baby boomers out of the way. They screwed everything up. . If only we could eliminate them somehow.

	01-04-2005 11:22									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident It's a ****ing ponzi scheme.

Duh.

	01-04-2005 11:23									#16
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Personally, I'd cut benefits and raise the retirement age.

thats sane, but what politician wants a sane solution.

	01-04-2005 11:24									#17
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quote: Originally posted by MRT144 thats sane, but what politician wants a sane solution.

Certainly not the Democrats.

	01-04-2005 11:32									#18
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Certainly not the Democrats.

Better than what Bush has proposed.

	01-04-2005 11:33									#19
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc I have a bridge in New York to sell you.

No you don't. I do, however, have some land in Florida to sell.

	01-04-2005 11:33									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Boshko Better than what Bush has proposed.

What have they proposed?

	01-04-2005 11:33									#21
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Certainly not the Democrats.

Certainly not anybody

	01-04-2005 11:33									#22
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Personally, I'd cut benefits and raise the retirement age.

That plus getting rid of the earning cap.

	01-04-2005 11:53									#23
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc What have they proposed?

Basically nothing.

	01-04-2005 12:59									#24
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Well, if the number of overweight and obese Americans continues to rise, they'll bite the dust at earlier and earlier ages, thus saving Social Security in the long run because they won't be alive to draw from it.

Gatekeeper

	01-04-2005 13:02									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper Well, if the number of overweight and obese Americans continues to rise, they'll bite the dust at earlier and earlier ages, thus saving Social Security in the long run because they won't be alive to draw from it. Gatekeeper

No, the hell of it is they won't; med tech will just keep them alive longer and longer, which means we'll not only pay for their SS but also be paying a fortune for health care.

	01-04-2005 13:04									#26
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And by "them," I mean "me."

	01-04-2005 13:27									#27
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*LOL* I, too, am somewhat over the "normal" range when it comes to weight for a 6'2" Caucasian male. Oh, well. That's why I walk and ride my stationary bike.

Gatekeeper

	01-04-2005 13:36									#28
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How can any young person support Social Security in its current form? I'm not too keen on Bush's plan but at least he's trying to reform a broken system, which is more than I can say for the Dems. I'd prefer it if the Boomers didn't bleed my paychecks dry over the next few decades, so any push for reform is welcome...

	01-04-2005 16:19									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten How can any young person support Social Security in its current form? I'm not too keen on Bush's plan but at least he's trying to reform a broken system, which is more than I can say for the Dems. I'd prefer it if the Boomers didn't bleed my paychecks dry over the next few decades, so any push for reform is welcome...

There's plenty wrong with the modern SS system (I can do my saving myself thank you very much) but what Bush is proposing is worse than the current system.

	01-04-2005 17:11									#30
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I don't really care if his plan is good or not. The important thing is that he's attempting to break down the resistance that has prevented any sort of reform in the past. The best possible scenario would be to have that resistance broken down and also have Bush's plan amended into something more useful, but I'd settle for just the former at this point. The vital thing is to stop the treatment of Social Security as an untouchable third rail; if we do that, we can always fix any problems Bush's plan introduces.