10-04-2005 19:10									#121
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither How close is too close? They do the math and figure where it could reasonably fall. Nothing is in that area. They should now extend it? What? 100 miles? 1000 miles? You never know when things could go really wrong and the thing blast off toward Chile. Might want to just stop launching rockets. On second thought, we might want to slip a few payements to ensure that Ottawa is ground zero for an evernt.

Rhetoric aside , my understanding is that the evacuation is being ordered by the companies involved . . The Hibernia platform is operated by ExxonMobil, a US corporation not gioven to irrational actions that hurt the bottom line.

The reality is that none of us on here has seen details . Some are assuming that the space guys "one in a trillion" qote is accurate while others, including myself have been assuming that the oil companies would not be considering evacuation if that was the real probability.

I just know that if the planned impact zone is within a mile, that seems awful close. If thats the zone " where it could possibly hit if everything goes wrong" then we have a different situation. But if thats the situation, why are the the oil companies so fussed?

Its a big big ocean out there and much of it is empty but theres a relatively small patch out there thats relatively busy. Aside from the Hibernia platform, there is the Terra Nova development and work being done on the Whiterose development all within less than 50 km of Hibernia. Each if these developments have exclusion zones where there don't even let shipping pass through, so caution is the norm when we are talking offshore oil development. The question is whether the oil companies are going overboard here

	10-04-2005 19:13									#122
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In the 1950s the Canadians were nice enough to give us permission to detonate nuclear anti-aircraft missles in their airspace to defend opurselves if the need were to ever arise. This is peanuts by comparison.

	10-04-2005 19:14									#123
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The Fifties: When Canadian men were still men!

	10-04-2005 19:17									#124
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten The Fifties: When Canadian men were still men!

...... and quiet men at that.

	10-04-2005 19:24									#125
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The fifties: when there was a real threat...

	10-04-2005 20:16									#126
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The fifties: when real men, manly men, were born.

	10-04-2005 20:48									#127
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quote: Send the ****ing thing another 20 miles east. That way everything will be cool.

If we give in to Canadian irrational fears now, such requests for accommodations would never end. Better to educate the Canadians on the actual risk and do the launch as planned.

	10-04-2005 20:51									#128
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How fast will the debris be travelling at when it hits? And will it hit land or sea?

	10-04-2005 20:53									#129
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Because if it hits the sea, what sort of splash will it make?

	10-04-2005 20:57									#130
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk ...or we did, if you count all the states together.

If quality counts over qunatity, then Bolivia wins, getting impacted with an intact nuclear reactor.

	10-04-2005 20:57									#131
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"Because if it hits the sea, what sort of splash will it make?"

I wonder if I could get a billion $ government grant to answer this very important and relevant question, for the good of mankind of course.

	10-04-2005 21:04									#132
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Was it still intact after it hit? If so, I'm impressed.

	10-04-2005 21:19									#133
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quote: Originally posted by DanS If we give in to Canadian irrational fears now, such requests for accommodations would never end. Better to educate the Canadians on the actual risk and do the launch as planned.

Irrational my ass.

A lot more rational than the people quacking "one in a trillion"

	10-04-2005 21:25									#134
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Have you taken a look at the risk analysis? Every launch in the US requires one. If not -- as I expect -- then I'm not going to trust your straight-from-the-ass assessment.

	10-04-2005 21:26									#135
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Risk analysis on anything except the crudest level in rocketry is a joke.

	10-04-2005 21:27									#136
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Anybody who says that the chances of impact are one in a trillion is either stupid or lying.

	10-04-2005 21:29									#137
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Have you ever done one of these, KH? Have you ever even seen one?

	10-04-2005 21:30									#138
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If they wanted to exaggerate the safety they should have said one in a million. At least that would be reasonable (though on the low side in my opinion)

One in a trillion is the chance that it'll land somewhere on the physics building at hopkins.

	10-04-2005 21:31									#139
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Have you ever done one of these, KH? Have you ever even seen one?

Do you even know how many zeroes there are in a trillion?

	10-04-2005 21:33									#140
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So I take it then that your analysis is indeed straight from your ass, whereas the Air Force took their one-in-a-trillion from their risk analysis, a sample of which you have never seen nor participated in preparing?

	10-04-2005 21:37									#141
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No, they took their analysis straight from their ass. I'm pointing out how obvious this is.

You, on the other hand, obviously have no feel for the approximate numbers involved.

	10-04-2005 21:42									#142
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They've been doing these analyses for every launch for 50 years. While that doesn't automatically make the analysis for this launch valid, I would ask you what precise problems you have with it.

I have heard of people working through these risk analyses for the uninvolved public. They tend to be rather extreme and therefore have earned a reputation in the business for being draconian.

	10-04-2005 21:43									#143
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One in a trillion is absurd hyperbole, DanS.

	10-04-2005 21:46									#144
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How do you know that?

	10-04-2005 23:20									#145
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quote: Originally posted by DanS How do you know that?

I don't .

But so far we have the fact that very rationale multibillion dollar corporations are contemplating an action that will cost them money. We also have the fact of a glib sounding "one in a trillion" quote from an official that would presumably know.

Oh and I have seen risk analysis (not for space launches but for business decisions)

	10-04-2005 23:26									#146
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quote: Originally posted by Flubber Rhetoric aside , my understanding is that the evacuation is being ordered by the companies involved . . The Hibernia platform is operated by ExxonMobil, a US corporation not gioven to irrational actions that hurt the bottom line. The reality is that none of us on here has seen details . Some are assuming that the space guys "one in a trillion" qote is accurate while others, including myself have been assuming that the oil companies would not be considering evacuation if that was the real probability. I just know that if the planned impact zone is within a mile, that seems awful close. If thats the zone " where it could possibly hit if everything goes wrong" then we have a different situation. But if thats the situation, why are the the oil companies so fussed? Its a big big ocean out there and much of it is empty but theres a relatively small patch out there thats relatively busy. Aside from the Hibernia platform, there is the Terra Nova development and work being done on the Whiterose development all within less than 50 km of Hibernia. Each if these developments have exclusion zones where there don't even let shipping pass through, so caution is the norm when we are talking offshore oil development. The question is whether the oil companies are going overboard here

From this article
http://www.canada.com/news/national...89-0fcb2eddc8dd
it sounds to me as if the govt and oil companies had a reaction similar to that seen in this thread to the possibility of booster rockets falling willy nilly over the ocean. Now they're being briefed by the Air Force and we'll see what happens.

I'd say it's premature to warn that the sky is falling, but it's a fun thread none the less.

	10-04-2005 23:43									#147
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quote: But so far we have the fact that very rationale multibillion dollar corporations are contemplating an action that will cost them money.

The company needs to keep the local government and its employees happy. The rationality of their actions should be evaluated in this context. Hell, it's impossible to know whether the Newfoundland top guy has other motives in pitching a fit. Under such a scenario, the oil companies would still be obliged to follow his lead (or his commands), no matter the actual risk.

	11-04-2005 01:20									#148
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither How large is the impact zone? That's the detail I am wondering about. 10 mile radius? 100 mile radius?

I have no idea, but the oil companies were prepared to "go to war" with the Pentagon over this.

	11-04-2005 03:00									#149
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quote: Originally posted by DanS How do you know that?

It's a trillion. 10^12.

	11-04-2005 03:37									#150
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quote: Originally posted by DanS The company needs to keep the local government and its employees happy. The rationality of their actions should be evaluated in this context. Hell, it's impossible to know whether the Newfoundland top guy has other motives in pitching a fit. Under such a scenario, the oil companies would still be obliged to follow his lead (or his commands), no matter the actual risk.

Odd -- my information is that the companies are taking the lead on this.