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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:19
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We've got all sorts of pro sports in the US. There's always room for one more. You mention hockey, but there's also NASCAR which has taken off in the last couple of decades, and is one of our largest spectator sports. In the 90s, the sport more than doubled to "oh ****, that's huge" levels.
Last edited by DanS on 04-05-2005 at 01:39
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Imran Siddiqui
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The Potterverse
Jan 1970
time: 00:19
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quote:
I think we'll have at least two teams averaging 40,000 in our lifetime. |
You are on drugs. You know that.
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The Home Depot Center holds 27,000, so that is an upper limit for a while. |
And they don't even fill that! In soccer-mad LA!
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These are not out-of-this-world projections. Demand need only follow population growth for all of my projections to be golden. |
Latinos who come to the US follow the Mexican League or other Latin American leagues over the MLS. As I pointed out, look at Dallas, which has abyssmal attendance.
It just won't happen. In 30 years, we may have a 20 team league, with an average attendance of 20,000, with our biggest teams drawing an average of 30,000. That's optimistic, however. But beyond that? I don't think it goes much further... if it reaches that level at all.
You are acting like people looking at Chinese economic growth rates and projecting them into perpetuity and thinking they'll be some uber-country. It won't happen.
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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:19
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They did not play in the Cotton Bowl in 2003. Rather, they played in a dump of a stadium and attendance fell by 40%. Then they moved back to the Cotton Bowl last year and attendance rebounded somewhat.
They're moving into their new stadium in August. I think it reasonable to consider FC Dallas a special case until they have a couple of years in their new stadium.
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You are acting like people looking at Chinese economic growth rates and projecting them into perpetuity and thinking they'll be some uber-country. It won't happen. |
We will still be a country of some 400 million people playing against countries an eighth our size. This doesn't take much imagination, dude.
Last edited by DanS on 04-05-2005 at 04:07
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Locutus
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ACS CTP1/2 Manager & Civ4 Co-Manager
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Hengelo, The Netherlands
Nov 1999
time: 06:19
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Population is almost completely irrelevant when it comes to football. The Netherlands and Czech Republic are prime examples today, but the best one is probably Uruguay which dominated the international stage in the first half of the century and won two world cups, when they only had a population of about 2 million.
The key to success in football is education, education, education. I keep hearing how non-Dutch people are so surprised that one supertalent after another rolls out of the Dutch football 'factory', considering we're such a small country. But it's no surprise really if you know that 24 of the 36 professional football clubs in the Netherlands have their own youth academy and they all take this academy seriously (they have to: by order of the Dutch FA these academies have to meet the highest of standards). Kids enter at the age of 8-14 and get a full education (both in football and in 'real' courses and professions) until either it becomes clear that they don't have what it takes to succeed as professional football player (at most until they're 18ish) or until they're promoted to the professional team (or until some other team picks them up if the club the academy belongs to isn't interested). The 'drop-outs' (the vast majority) end up playing for a lower league or amateur team and can sometimes still climb up from there.
At the same time, all those youth players that don't end up in a youth academy can follow a very natural path from youth team to first squad at one of the thousands of amateur teams that this country has (even villages with a population of a few thousand often support several football clubs). If they do well there, they might be invited to play for stronger amateur teams in higher leagues and if they have the talent will eventually be picked up by a professional team. With a system like that, very little talent goes to waste...
If the US ever wants to become a big football nation, they will have to abandon that hopeless system of only picking up players for pro teams when they're in college; a football education needs to start much, much sooner if you want to get the most out of your players... And of course, particularly in a country where football is not the biggest sport, it's pivotal to track down and pick up players with talent before they choose to pursue some other sport...
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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:19
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There are lots of ways for the US to make a splash in international soccer. In the end, what works for the US might look different than what works in other countries. The US might have a slightly older team playing than others.
That said, as Imran pointed out, we now have a national academy to cherry pick and train the biggest talents. The system will probably evolve to be multi-pronged like our other sports.
For example, some people go to junior highs and high schools known for their basketball. Some don't. Some go to college and play ball. Some are drafted into the NBA right out of high school. Some are drafted in the middle of college. Some are drafted after graduation. Talent and skill level are evaluated at all places.
Last edited by DanS on 04-05-2005 at 05:41
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04-05-2005 01:18
We are not going to have a team averaging 40,000 a year in our lifetimes. If we are lucky in 20 or so years, we may have LA average 30,000.
And why Japan is better than Spain or Portugal?
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