03-06-2005 07:00									#1
	The science behind the probability of extraterrestrials Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

I have seen the speculative documentary recently on the National Geographic channel about the probability of extraterrestrials.

In this documentary, astronomers and biologists use computer technology to speculate on, and then design, possible life-sustaining types of planets and moons and then designing different life forms that could evolve and live there.

I thought it was fascinating.


For those who have seen this show, what are your thoughts? And I would be interested in hearing other ideas from Apolyton's amateur astronomers and biologists on different possible ecosystems and lifeforms.

Here is something to start off with. The linked Wikipedia article below explains why lifeforms would be less likely with silicon or ammonia elements. Does anyone disagree and think differently?

Building blocks for lifeforms

	03-06-2005 07:04									#2
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I don't even believe human life is possible. The improbable sequence of events for a complex organism such as homo sapiens to form on a world in just the right place at just the right time with just the right events is just astronomical.

So forgive me, if I don't believe in aliens.

	03-06-2005 07:05									#3
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Actually, when talking about extraterrestrials, we can talk about any lifeform -- from the most primitive, microbe extraterrestrial to the most technogically and socially advanced complex lifeform.

	03-06-2005 07:06									#4
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Drat, In knew it was coming but I missed that National Geo. show.

As an aside, I do like Carl Sagan's speculation about balloon-like creatures floating around in the atmosphere of gas giants, dining on primordial neutriants churned up from lower down....but that's a whole different show.

	03-06-2005 07:07									#5
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Not to mention the fact that nearly all of the universe's basic elements come from stars, including elements on which life came to form from here on Earth.

So given that there are countless stars throughout the universe, all it would really take is water and the right type of planet at the right distance from the right type of star. And given the vastness of the universe, even these prerequisites are not out of reach.



EDIT: cross-posting

	03-06-2005 07:08									#6
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I watched as much of that infantile program as I could bare to watch. While the subject doesn't bother me in the least, the way NGS presented the program left me constantly expecting Big Bird to come on-screen saying, "Today's program is brought to you by the letter 'E'."

	03-06-2005 07:09									#7
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What didn't you like about the program?

Not everyone is an expert astronomer or biologist -- they had to talk in lay terms, and even then, they certainly weren't talking down to anyone.

	03-06-2005 07:12									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident I don't even believe human life is possible. The improbable sequence of events for a complex organism such as homo sapiens to form on a world in just the right place at just the right time with just the right events is just astronomical. So forgive me, if I don't believe in aliens.

C'mon Diss, you're better than this..

	03-06-2005 07:17									#9
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No, not the details presented in lay terms, but the presentation itself. Worf kept repeating the same points over and over, but with different wording each time. I couldn't stand watching the rest of Blue Moon because of it. What really irritates me about these kinds of presentations is when they show the same animated clips over and over as well every few minutes. It drives home the point that the producer of the program in question spared no expense to make as cheap a program as they could while still vainly grasping at the appearance of "Ooo, far out man. This program is so funky-fresh, dog."

	03-06-2005 07:18									#10
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Diss, look up the anthropic principal and you might understand why your assertion is patently absurd.

	03-06-2005 07:21									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Diss, look up the anthropic principal and you might understand why your assertion is patently absurd.

(sorry Diss)

	03-06-2005 07:28									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Diss, look up the anthropic principal and you might understand why your assertion is patently absurd.

I will provide the link in case Ned is lazy.


lack of imagination-based arguments

	03-06-2005 07:29									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Diss, look up the anthropic principal and you might understand why your assertion is patently absurd.

****, why don't we bring intelligent design into the discussion as well?

	03-06-2005 07:29									#14
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quote: Originally posted by DRoseDARs No, not the details presented in lay terms, but the presentation itself. Worf kept repeating the same points over and over, but with different wording each time. I couldn't stand watching the rest of Blue Moon because of it. What really irritates me about these kinds of presentations is when they show the same animated clips over and over as well every few minutes. It drives home the point that the producer of the program in question spared no expense to make as cheap a program as they could while still vainly grasping at the appearance of "Ooo, far out man. This program is so funky-fresh, dog."

I found some of the repitition annoying to, but not to the extent that I could enjoy the rest of the program.

	03-06-2005 07:30									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten ****, why don't we bring intelligent design into the discussion as well?

Well, that's essentially what Diss is asserting...

	03-06-2005 07:31									#16
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I have no idea how you came to that conclusion...

	03-06-2005 07:31									#17
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quote: Originally posted by MrFun I found some of the repitition annoying to, but not to the extent that I could enjoy the rest of the program.

Well, I can't help it if you enjoyed being talked to as if you were a toddler...

	03-06-2005 07:31									#18
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quote: Originally posted by DRoseDARs Well, I can't help it if you enjoyed being talked to as if you were a toddler...

I said I found it to be annoying myself, jackass.

	03-06-2005 07:32									#19
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Aww, does baby want his bottle?

	03-06-2005 07:34									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten I have no idea how you came to that conclusion...

It's pretty obvious, actually. If he believes life "isn't possible," in our universe, then he's essentially stating he believes the only way human life could exist here is through miraculous means, i.e. a metaphysical act of creation.

	03-06-2005 07:36									#21
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Boris, didn't you know that the Bible scientifically proves that God created life on Earth?

	03-06-2005 07:36									#22
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Or through an extremely unlikely, but random, series of events. You really shouldn't put words in other people's mouths.

	03-06-2005 07:47									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten Or through an extremely unlikely, but random, series of events. You really shouldn't put words in other people's mouths.

Are you joking? He said he doesn't believe it's possible, which is totally the opposite of above. Unlikely isn't remotely the same as impossible (since unlikely still holds to there being a possibility).

I think the problem is your failing to comprehend basic words...

At any rate, the anthropic principal addresses even the "unlikely" argument, not just the "impossible" one, so I'm still not sure what you were *****ing about from the start.

	03-06-2005 07:49									#24
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I think extraterrestrial life is more likely than unlikely.

	03-06-2005 07:52									#25
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quote: Originally posted by MrFun I think extraterrestrial life is more likely than unlikely.

It's really impossible (and I mean "impossible") to tell either way until we find it. Any "calculations" about how probable or improbable the existence of life is in our universe are simply a load of bull.

However, given that we exist, then it is reasonable to believe that extraterrestrial life exists where there are similar conditions. And it's reasonable to believe similar conditions will exist somewhere in a universe as vast as ours. But that could be so far away that we'll never know about it.

	03-06-2005 07:54									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov It's really impossible (and I mean "impossible") to tell either way until we find it. However, given that we exist, then it is reasonable to believe that extraterrestrial life exists where there are similar conditions. But that could be so far away that we'll never know about it.

Just speculation/projection here though for fun -- how long do you think it would take to make any contact with another intelligent extraterrestrial lifeform? And/or to discover, non-intelligent, more primitive extraterrestrial lifeform?

I would think within the next 100 years is the shortest length of time we can expect results. Or would you think that is wholly unrealistic?

Keep in mind the extraordinary, rapid pace of our technological advancement.

	03-06-2005 07:57									#27
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Don't listen to that crap. Read this book. It's at least serious.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...=books&n=507846

	03-06-2005 08:05									#28
	Re: The science behind the probability of extraterrestrials Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by MrFun I thought it was fascinating.

If you liked this programme, I have just the right sci-fi book for you: Dragon's Egg by Robert Forward. It's along the same lines, but at a place extraordinarily oulandish.

Awesome book.

	03-06-2005 08:07									#29
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Until we figure out how a feasible means of interstellar travel would work, I think it's fair to say any extraterrestrial contact is pretty unlikely, ever.

If you think about it, the fastest we've ever gotten an object to go was the Helios satellite which orbited the sun, which traveled at about 150,000 mph. At that speed, it would take you ~11,000 years to reach the nearest neighboring star system to us, Alpha Centauri.

And then we'd have to know about just how common intelligent life might be, which we don't. My hunch is that it's not very common, but no way to tell now. But even if it is common, the distances between inhabited systems may still be too much to traverse.

	03-06-2005 08:09									#30
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The Drake Equation is pretty much the standard formula used for this in determining the probability of Extraterrestials. A link to it is here: http://www.activemind.com/Mysteriou...e_equation.html

Bear in mind that is only for the Milky Way Galaxy. If you take into account the number of Stars in the universe and not in the galaxy, the number you start with is high enough that you end up with multiple planets with intelligent life. It makes sense, consdiering how many stars there are in the universe it would make sense that probabilistically you would end up with some other planets that support intelligent life. The problem is the Universe is so vast, we'll probably never get to communicate with them. Still it's interesting to think that somewhere in the vastness of space there is intelligent life.