01-07-2005 11:49									#181
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quote: Santorum is polling in the low 40s for approval, and he's running 15 points behind his 2006 rival, who is a very popular Pennsylvania Democrat. No one I can think of is seriously touting Santorum as a possibly presidential candidate. Maybe in fundie circles, but in the real world he has a snowball's chance in hell. His first step would be to not seek reelection for Senate, since losing to Casey would kill any hopes he has.

Yeah, that would pretty much preclude you hearing anything about Santorum, if he's touted by the 'fundy' set.

	01-07-2005 12:06									#182
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who cares? bush has the last laugh. hes not up for reelection and we cant do anything against him. even if it goes to 5% approval.

	01-07-2005 14:07									#183
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Very true however the fallout on his political party has the potential to be tremendous.

	01-07-2005 17:33									#184
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quote: Yeah, that would pretty much preclude you hearing anything about Santorum, if he's touted by the 'fundy' set

Brownback is generally considered to be the fundies' boy in the '08 primaries. Santorum is disqualified seeing as how he's going to lose badly in '06.

	01-07-2005 17:34									#185
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quote: Originally posted by Odin If this keeps up the Dems have a good chance of retaking the Senate.

	01-07-2005 18:52									#186
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Don't laugh too hard. While it's a challenge, it's certainly possible. The Dems have been handed a magnificent gift in Florida. Their most endangered incumbent was Nelson. But now that Katherine "Cruella" Harris has announced her bid to unseat him, his numbers have improved dramatically. Rove & Co. are quietly fishing around for other candidates, but the problem is they promised Harris she could run this time, since they asked her to back off the last Senate race so Martinez could get in. Harris has enough support and name recognition to win the primary, but it looks like she'd be one big dead duck in the general election.

Meanwhile, the GOP's endangered spots look pretty grim, especially Santorum.

	01-07-2005 19:09									#187
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Ben (the other one) Nelson isn't looking so good in Nebraska, and Kent Conrad's up for re-election in North Dakota, which isn't exactly a haven for Democrats. Also, your man Byrd will be 89 by the next election. It's quite possible he'll retire. Dayton is vacating his seat because he's afraid of the terrorists ()

If Santorum gets knocked out, I won't shed any tears. But you'll need a couple more Republican seats to make up for the ones you lose, and you'll need to knock out about seven Republican incumbents, total, to get a majority.

I'm not exactly quavering in fear.

	01-07-2005 19:31									#188
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Ben doesn't have a decent challenger. Both him and Kent are some of the most popular Senators around. Byrd probably won't retire. MN is a Dem state, and it has some strong Dem candidates running for the seat. ND and MN (and to a lesser extent, MD and WA) may be somewhat vulnerable, but they're more or less balanced out by the marginal vulnerabilities in states like TN and OH.

BTW, the Dems need 6 seats, not 7 for a majority (Jeffords caucuses with the Dems as does his likely successor, Sanders).

I predict that the Dems'll win three seats: PA, MT, and RI. Meaning a two seat adantage for the Reps.

	01-07-2005 19:35									#189
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Conrad? Conrad is at 71% approval rating in ND as of June 15. He's safe.

Byrd is most likely running again--he's been building up campaign funds and has not given any indication he is retiring any time soon. And polls show him easily beating the only GOP opponent with name recognition.

I think Nelson will hold his seat, esp. if they can't get ex-governor Johanns to run. He's proven to be pretty politically deft in the past, and with the national mood not being kind to the GOP, I give him a slight advantage.

Dayton's being off the ballot is probably a lucky break for the Dems there. That will be a competitive race, so by no means is it assured for either party.

I think it's quite possible the Dems will hold all their seats, Minnesota being the only really dangerous one. But I think they're in a strong position to pick up several, such as PA, VA (If Warner runs), TN, OH, and possibly MO if McCaskill runs (and conventional wisdom says she will). That's 5 seats right there. And MT is an outside possibility, considering the popularity of Dem Governor Schweitzer and Burns being beset by a lot of bad publicity lately. Another is Kyl's AZ seat. He's polling under 50%, which is trouble for an incumbent, and he's viewed as vulnerable.

So I think it's definitely possible. Probable? No, but it could happen. Especially if Bush's coattails continue to drag down his party.

	01-07-2005 19:37									#190
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Chaffee is secure in RI. The ousting of Langevin by a fanatical women's group pretty much secured the seat for the Republicans.

Burns in MT is an outside possibility, but I'd look to MO over that. He still has decent numbers.

	01-07-2005 19:39									#191
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Yeah, that would pretty much preclude you hearing anything about Santorum, if he's touted by the 'fundy' set.

Yes, silly me for relying on realistic political news from political news sources rather than revival meetings.

	01-07-2005 19:44									#192
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Coattails refers to an election where there's a presidential election going on, I thought. It's what happens when people come to the polls to vote for the presidential candidate, and then vote for candidates of the same party in races they would have otherwise not bothered to vote for. The party with the better presidential candidate gets a boost in minor races all over the country.

It doesn't apply here. People don't go vote in congressional races because they hate/like the President. But congressional races in the sixth year of a Presidential administration do tend to go for the other side, generally because one base is frustrated, while the other is complacent.

However, you listed four red states and a blue state, and said "there's five seats right there". That's bordering on wishful thinking.

	01-07-2005 19:45									#193
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A recent poll shows Whitehouse down only 36-41% among RV's. With Whitehouse's lower name ID, Chaffee is still pretty damn vulnerable. But Langevin certainly would've been preferable.

McCaskill hasn't entered the race in MO yet. She still may have designs on the Gov's mansion. The Dem bench is pretty weak besides her.

As for MT, Schweitzer barely lost to him in 2000. Without Shrub on the ballot, with all the scandal Burns has gotten himself into, and with the resurgent MT Dem Party, it seems like one of the Dems' best shots in the Senate.

	01-07-2005 19:51									#194
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quote: Originally posted by Jaguar It doesn't apply here. People don't go vote in congressional races because they hate/like the President.

I know you were in diapers in 1994, but you've no excuse for forgetting 1998. And both of those elections indeed were strongly influenced by the popularity of the president and issues surrounding the president.

quote: However, you listed four red states and a blue state, and said "there's five seats right there". That's bordering on wishful thinking.

Red state/blue state is political hack bullshit. It's more about the particular candidates running, and the overall sentiment towards the particular parties at that time. Democrats and Republicans win seats in their "opposing" states all the time. The races I mentioned are all there because the GOP seats are vulnerable and face potentially strong Dem opponents. And Bush's sagging numbers will hurt them.

	01-07-2005 19:53									#195
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Ramo:

Most of the inside gossip says McCaskill is definitely going for the Senate seat. Could change, but thats the CW now.

Burns may have had trouble against Schweitzer, but the current batch of opponents aren't nearly as strong as Schweitzer was. I think they have a shot, but I think the odds slightly favor Burns still.

	01-07-2005 19:57									#196
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Tester comes fairly close, from what I've heard. And Burns will have a lot more baggage than he did in 2000.

	01-07-2005 20:06									#197
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5/31/2005 Mason-Dixon poll has Burns over Tester 50-26. The better bet seems to be John Morrison, but Burns was over him 49-34 percent. Increased name recognition for the Dems and Burns' problems will change things, but for now I still give Burns an advantage.

	01-07-2005 20:16									#198
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While those numbers look better for Morrison, keep in mind that he has almost twice the name ID of Tester.

quote: Burns' name was second with 45 percent favorable to 24 percent unfavorable, with 30 percent neutral and 1 percent not recognizing him. Morrison's name received 22 percent favorable recognition to 7 percent unfavorable, with 40 percent neutral. Thirty-one percent of the voters didn't recognize his name. Tester had a 14 percent favorable recognition and 4 percent unfavorable, with 21 percent neutral. Sixty-one percent of voters didn't recognize his name.

http://www.billingsgazette.com/inde...mbents-lead.inc

With only 39% name ID, 50/26 isn't all that bad.