27-06-2005 06:50									#151
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quote: Originally posted by Jaguar I think this is the end of the Republican steamroller, though. Certainly in the House, this is the best they will get.

Never underestimate the ability of we Democrats to be able to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

Watch what happens in next month's AFL-CIO convention. The largest public employee union SIEU and other large groups such as the Teamsters are threatening to pull out. The purpose of the AFL-CIO is to maintain peace between the unions and coordinate their activities. If the SIEU pulls out, there will probably been an internecine struggle with my union AFSCME. Already, members of two of our large units have received inquires about jumping to SEIU. I can see the 2005-06 as the years the unions battle each other, and the anti-labor forces of the Republicans pick up all the marbles.

	27-06-2005 08:18									#152
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Schwartzenegger's fall is the front page story in today's L.A. Daily News.

The story makes an interesting comparison between Schwartnenegger's fall and Grey Davis's similar fall.

Davis's fall was triggered by external crises -- the energy crisis and the economic downturn. Schwartnenegger's decline comes from his political strategy, his dealing with the legislature and his decision to call a special election. However, the story goes on to opine that, because he's not facing an external crisis, Schwartnenegger's ability to turn things around will be easier than it was for Davis.

	27-06-2005 09:34									#153
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi Perhaps so, however, the question at hand was whether Bush Sr. could have beaten Bill Clinton if Perot did not run. That was the whole point of running the numbers.

Which, even in your overly generous calculations, still gives Clinton a narrow electoral victory. In reality, I think he still would have broken 300 EVs.

quote: Secondly, if Clinton could not beat Bush in a straight up election, who is to say that he would have beat Dubya in 2004?

Because Clinton's outgoing approval rating in 2001 was about 20 points higher than Bush's was in 2004?

1992 is patently irrelevant to 2004, since in 1992 Clinton was an unknown. He then had an easy reelection over Dole (far easier than Bush's), and left office with one of the highest approval ratings any president has had.

Bush currently has 42-43% approval ratings, with a higher disapproval rating. At the same poing in Clinton's presidency, he had 59% approval rating vs. 35% disapproval ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2005Apr11.html )

Bush's numbers are all-round abysmal. The only issue that he's polling a higher approval-to-disapproval rating is terrorism, and that's not close to being the number one issue for Americans now (it's the war and the economy, and Bush's ratings are low on both). He got his ass kicked on social security, too.

	27-06-2005 09:38									#154
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quote: who is to say that he would have beat Dubya in 2004?

Do the math:

Clinton = smart + charisma.
Gore = smart + no charisma.
Kerry = smart + even less charisma

	27-06-2005 09:47									#155
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Clinton could have PWND a 2004 Dubya. I am willing to concede that.

	27-06-2005 11:15									#156
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GePap, be gentle with Jaguar. Weren't all of us cynical, older voters once idealistic and sure of ourselves. He'll outgrow - hopefully. Or may he won't - Yes master, I will follow you to the darker side, the Nediverse.

	27-06-2005 12:21									#157
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon quote: What character flaws? Most people regard chronic skirt chasing as a character flaw. The exceptions are usually the chronic skirt chasers.

Skirt chasing.

	30-06-2005 04:32									#158
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Update on CA Governor:

In the latest field poll, Arnie has dropped so much that now two prospective Democrats are beating him:

Treasurer Phil Angelides (D) - 46% (35%)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 42% (52%)

Controller Steve Westly (D) - 44% (33%)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 40% (52%)

Parentheses denote previous poll numbers. It's important to note that that Angelides and Westly only have 71% and 63% name recognition (respectively) with Californians at this point. So as time goes on, their numbers are likely to improve even more against Arnie.

He ain't dead yet, but he's in critical condition.

Last edited by Boris Godunov on 30-06-2005 at 05:10

	30-06-2005 04:44									#159
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Arnie does have an advantage that his political guys were VERY good in his first campaign, and I think they'll be just as good in the next one.

	30-06-2005 04:47									#160
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Following up... I would be sad if Arnie loses... he is one of the few moderate Republicans who are considered one the darlings of the party.

	30-06-2005 10:31									#161
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Slightly. It would have been better than breathlessly opening the thread about poll results in California and expecting people to give a ****.

Like you always used to say in other past threads, your "give a ****" thingy is broken.

	30-06-2005 10:58									#162
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Following up... I would be sad if Arnie loses... he is one of the few moderate Republicans who are considered one the darlings of the party.

He may be good at campaigning, but he seems to be unable to actually govern witht he opposition in power in the legislature. NOt a good trait for a republican governor of Cali.

	30-06-2005 11:06									#163
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Gepap:

It's just that the approval ratings jump around so much, that it really helps me to know where you are getting your numbers from.

quote: The Party in control gets the blame- this is a startegy Republicans under Gingrich used before '94, by fighting a nasty little war to tie up things.

So you are affirming Gingrich's tactics?

quote: That said, congressional Democrats are no more popular then Republicans, and until lately, were even less popular. That hurts incumbents, NOT challangers, Given there are more republican incumbents than Democrats, this is a bigger problem for the Republicans.

Depends on the concentration of the unpopularity. If the Democrats shoulder most of the unpopularity, then the incumbancy of the Republicans will not play a factor.

I'm also unsure why you feel Santorum is vunerable. He is touted as one of the successors to Bush Jr.

	30-06-2005 12:25									#164
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Santorum is polling in the low 40s for approval, and he's running 15 points behind his 2006 rival, who is a very popular Pennsylvania Democrat.

No one I can think of is seriously touting Santorum as a possibly presidential candidate. Maybe in fundie circles, but in the real world he has a snowball's chance in hell. His first step would be to not seek reelection for Senate, since losing to Casey would kill any hopes he has.

	30-06-2005 12:30									#165
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I haven't been following the Governator too much so I'm a little in the dark about what is going on with him.

I do know the teachers' union is out for blood against him, and that can spark all sorts of alliances. I don't believe the opposition against him is any sort of organic, grassroots movement, I believe it's coming from an organized movement, and starting foremost with the teachers union, who have been running tv ads nonstop against him.

I'm not saying what he is doing is wrong or right, but I just don't know enough about it.

What I do know is that there is some shrewd political machinery here at work that I believe exaggerates the public opinion. (What else is new).

The Governator recently gave the keynote address at Santa Monica college, and many of the students turned their backs on him while he was talking. I thought that scene was unbelievable.

	30-06-2005 16:36									#166
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The Governator's ****ed. According to the Fields Poll (which is insanely accurate), he's losing to both of the Dem challengers (2/05 results in parenthesis):

quote: Treasurer Phil Angelides (D) - 46% (35%) Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 42% (52%) Controller Steve Westly (D) - 44% (33%) Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 40% (52%)

And both challengers have far-lower name identification (63% for Angelides and 71% for Westly), so those numbers are basically ceilings for Arnie. His approval rating (37% of registered voters) is not that much better than Davis just prior to his recall.

	30-06-2005 16:37									#167
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Boris already posted that

	30-06-2005 16:42									#168
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Well, Ted apparantly didn't see it either.

	30-06-2005 20:21									#169
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More state numbers from dailykos:

quote: SurveyUSA is kicking ass on these 50-state polls. The latest is Bush's approval ratings everywhere in our great country. The bottom line, Bush is at 50 percent or above in only 11 states -- Utah (63), Nebraska (60), Wyoming (58), Idaho (56), Montana (56), Alabama (54), Alaska (53), North Dakota (52), Kansas (51), Kentucky (50), Mississippi (50), and Texas (50). He's at 40 percent or lower in 14 states -- Ohio (40), Wisconsin (40), Maine (39), Massachusetts (39), Delaware (38), Nevada (38), New Jersey (38), Michigan (38), California (37), Connecticut (37), Illinois (37), New York (33), Rhode Island (33), and Vermont (32). The weighted average (based on each state's percentage of the US population) is 43 approve, 53 disapprove. Lots of Red States experiencing a rash of buyer's remorse.

He also now has higher disapproval ratings than approval ratings in the following "red" states:

Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Iowa
Missouri
New Mexico
North Carolina
Tennessee


Only 50% in Texas? Ouch.

	30-06-2005 20:41									#170
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Only 50% in Texas? Ouch.

Not enough time on the ranch lately. And not enough "Yee Haw"s thrown into his press conferences.

	30-06-2005 21:26									#171
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Ironic that Bush mentions 9/11 every damn chance he gets, yet his approval rating in the state of New York is at an abysmal 33%.

	30-06-2005 21:41									#172
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Try looking at his approval rating in NYC. Double, triple and quadruple ouch. People there don't buy his bullshit one bit.

	01-07-2005 05:15									#173
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If this keeps up the Dems have a good chance of retaking the Senate. Is retaking the house possible, or is it too gerrymandered?

	01-07-2005 05:27									#174
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I never thought I'd say it, but... Tennessee

	01-07-2005 05:29									#175
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Tennessee is a really awesome state, all around really .

Bush doesn't have over 50% in Georgia! WOW... that's incredible!

	01-07-2005 05:31									#176
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Tennessee is a really awesome state, all around really .

You didn't live there.

EDIT: AFAIK

	01-07-2005 06:11									#177
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I was born there. My shame is lessened.

	01-07-2005 06:17									#178
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker I haven't been following the Governator too much so I'm a little in the dark about what is going on with him. I do know the teachers' union is out for blood against him, and that can spark all sorts of alliances. I don't believe the opposition against him is any sort of organic, grassroots movement, I believe it's coming from an organized movement, and starting foremost with the teachers union, who have been running tv ads nonstop against him. I'm not saying what he is doing is wrong or right, but I just don't know enough about it. What I do know is that there is some shrewd political machinery here at work that I believe exaggerates the public opinion. (What else is new). The Governator recently gave the keynote address at Santa Monica college, and many of the students turned their backs on him while he was talking. I thought that scene was unbelievable.

I really don't think he's trying to get reelected. I hear people complaining about him everywhere. Maybe there is a silent group out there that supports him, but all the complaining has to be having an effect.

	01-07-2005 06:20									#179
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov I was born there. My shame is lessened.

I still have to hold out for Alabama to join the list...

	01-07-2005 06:35									#180
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Alas, I lived there, too.