16-07-2005 04:08									#61
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Well, that's obviously nonsense from the general, and taking his statements seriously is silly.

	16-07-2005 04:43									#62
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No, it indicates that there is a few nuts in the Chinese military leadership. It is possible that one of them might someday get control of the nuke button, and that we should hit them while they are still weak.

	16-07-2005 04:46									#63
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This is BS. China isn't going to nuke the USA. The Chinese government is not going to take an action that would lead to them losing power(which would be a byproduct of China facing Nuclear Annihilation.

quote: If you do that the American economy will tank because China will stop financing the U.S. government deficit. Inflation will shoot up. Interest rates will climb.

That works both ways, Tingkai. What do you think happens if they stop financing our trade deficit? The dollar likely falls quite a bit, Chinese goods become more expensive, and if there is a recession as you say the USA is now buying much less Chinese goods. China's rapid economic growth is now threatened, and China faces the possibilty of a severe recession. The Chinese government, which is tolerated by the Chinese people on the grounds that it lets people get rich, now loses the basis of it's legitimacy. Now the stability of the Chinese regime is threatened.

	16-07-2005 05:04									#64
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Shi is quite right. China would not play that card unless it was absolutely necessary; maintaining the US trade deficit is in its interests.

Wrt the General, I wouldn't be considering the Ecthelion option just yet (if he was the President of the USA in October 1962 we'd all have been annihilated 40 years ago - nice suggestion buddy).

The General was completely out of order, yes, but I think he's bluffing. China's path of least resistance to great power status is economic (for the time being), which means its interests lie in the maintenance of the status quo (from which it is currently benefiting greatly).

It is also currently in the interests of both parties to maintian the status quo wrt to Taiwan. But if in the future sacrificing Taiwan is the best option to safeguarding the peaceful transition of China to great power status... I would say that we should take the pragmatic and utilitarian option. Can anyone say Taiwan SAR?

We have to make room in the International system for these rising powers. This will mean sacrifices... but better to make tolerable concessions than the ultimate sacrifice.

	16-07-2005 05:12									#65
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There was a status of MAD in 1962 between the USA and the USSR, but isn't today with USA and China.

	16-07-2005 05:19									#66
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Declaring a pre-emptive war against China based on the wayward words of a hawkish general strikes me as a little bit "mad", don't you think?

	16-07-2005 05:31									#67
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Are you sure you know what you're talking about? 10,000 vs. 400 is not mutual assured destruytion.

	16-07-2005 06:23									#68
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Well, that's obviously nonsense from the general, and taking his statements seriously is silly.

Which is why you asked about them, right?

quote: Where the hell did the general ever say China would consider a nuclear attack if it's ships were attacked?

	16-07-2005 06:24									#69
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quote: Originally posted by Ecthelion Are you sure you know what you're talking about? 10,000 vs. 400 is not mutual assured destruytion.

Especially when that 400 is actually 20 or so.

	16-07-2005 06:24									#70
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We should call their bluff and openly support Tiawanese independance.

	16-07-2005 06:37									#71
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Considering the American population alone (not including the military, national guard, or police forces) has enough fire power to destroy the entire Chinese military (except air force, nukes, and missiles), China doesn't stand a chance...the fact is, in the face of nuclear warfare, enough Americans have bomb shelters and extensive water and food supplies to still preserve the nation...

If China is hit with nukes, on the other hand, almost all of its population would die, as there are so many people in China...in short, after nuclear war, the US and China would end up having the same amount of people...

Even with equal populations, the US still has nuclear submarines and the largest navy and airforce (that need not be on the US mainland) and, unlike China, many Americans own weapons, and not just six shooters, fully automatic weapons, shotguns, high-powerd rifles with scopes...

What was it, 4 or 5 years ago a kid in Michigan killed 9 people with 8 shots...the Chinese couldn't even hit a Panda for crying out loud...

	16-07-2005 07:05									#72
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Soon those evil Chinese will be invading our countries and starting opium dens in which good white protestant women will become prosituted to their filthy yellow desires.... the Terror of the Tongs!! Help!!!

This frankly racist Sinophobia on Apolyton is becoming ridiculous....

	16-07-2005 08:59									#74
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Doesn't the US have better than 10 times the number of nukes that China has? Isn't it true that only a few Chinese nukes are mounted on missles capable of reaching the US?

	16-07-2005 09:53									#75
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What is sad is that any of you think the US can actually strategically threaten China in this situation. Its does show an utter and complete lack of reason or cognitive capabilities.

Lets spell it out for all of you, specially Ecthelion.

1. The US is a democracy-the American people would NEVER accept the use of strategic nuclear weapons by the US without the US homeland having been attacked first. Any government that launched a pre-emptive nuclear strike would fall. Any members of such a government would also probably face (rightfully) war crimes charges, as well as charges of crimes against humanity and attempted genocide.

2. This reality is compounded when you realize the populace would be even more sanguine for the blood of any leader that tried if a single Chinese ballistic missile hit a US city. A million dead Americans purely as a result of the actions (unwarranted and undemocratic) of a US leader would end with the prompt outing of such a government.

3. For all the bluster, Taiwan is not a critical component of US interest- ie. war for Taiwan and its democracy would never warrant any escalation that placed American cities in danger-the US public, the voters, don;t care about Taiwan, certainly not enough to risk any US city getting nuked for it. On the other hand the authoritarian Chinese regime might, just might, be willing to lose a few cities to do it. Probably not, but they care about the issue far more than the US.

4. Any US regime that carried out suich a strike would be world paraih. Besides the fact that if the US launched its missiles, the Russians might not know it wasn;t headed their way and launch just to be on the safe side.

5. Even if the Russians did not, no state would ever trust or deal with a US regime that had attacked China strategically without China having gone first. So again, any US regime that acted as such would have to fall for the US to have a chance of repairing its international relations.

So, can we please stop talking utter nonsense about the US doing anything to China, because its just plain utterly moronic.

There are some plausible nuclear scenerios here, but a US strategic first strike is not one of them.

	16-07-2005 11:02									#76
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Our words are backed by NUCLEAR WEAPONS!

	16-07-2005 11:09									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Soon those evil Chinese will be invading our countries and starting opium dens in which good white protestant women will become prosituted to their filthy yellow desires.... the Terror of the Tongs!! Help!!! This frankly racist Sinophobia on Apolyton is becoming ridiculous....

	16-07-2005 11:36									#78
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quote: Originally posted by Timexwatch Could you at least answer me serious and tell me why Chinese ships in the Taiwan straight and other places would be considered "chinese soil" and cause for nuclear reataliation against the U.S.? If the U.S. simply sunk the PLAN, wouldn't it be against "war logic" to respond with a nuclear strike against U.S. targets?

It's not clear the general said nukes would be used if the US hit a Chinese ship.

The FT reports said: He added that China's definition of its territory included warships and aircraft.

Note that Zhu did not specifcally say that nukes would be launched if the US attacked Chinese warships or aircraft.

It appears that Zhu was answering a question from the FT reporter (most of the other reports I have seen do not mention the comment)

So the reporter likely asked "Are PLA ships and aircraft considered Chinese territory?"

Zhu's response could mean two things:
a) if the US attacks our ships, we'll repond with nukes; or
b) he answered the question as a statement of fact, not related to his earlier comments.

The latter is most likely because if he had meant point A, FT would have reported it as such.

	16-07-2005 11:39									#79
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi That works both ways, Tingkai. What do you think happens if they stop financing our trade deficit? The dollar likely falls quite a bit, Chinese goods become more expensive, and if there is a recession as you say the USA is now buying much less Chinese goods. China's rapid economic growth is now threatened, and China faces the possibilty of a severe recession. The Chinese government, which is tolerated by the Chinese people on the grounds that it lets people get rich, now loses the basis of it's legitimacy. Now the stability of the Chinese regime is threatened.

China would likely repegged the Yuan to the euro, but yes, China's economy would also suffer.

The point still stands that if the US tries to punish China with a trade boycott, the US would suffer major economic consequences. So for the US to state a trade war would be stupid and self-defeating.

	16-07-2005 11:41									#80
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Aha! the party line no doubt, and you heard it here on Poly first.

Did the dear general get his buttocks raped for causing all this hubbub?

	16-07-2005 11:53									#81
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quote: Originally posted by Timexwatch Could you at least answer me serious and tell me why Chinese ships in the Taiwan straight and other places would be considered "chinese soil" and cause for nuclear reataliation against the U.S.? If the U.S. simply sunk the PLAN, wouldn't it be against "war logic" to respond with a nuclear strike against U.S. targets?

What Zhu said is the similar to what Gywnne Dyer, who has taught at the Royal Military College in Canada and at Sandhurst, said in 1983.

Dyer argued that in any war between nuclear powers, as soon as one side started losing a conventional war, the weaker side would likely resort to nuclear weapons, first tactical weapons. The other side would then respond with nukes and the exchange would escalate to launching ICMBs. And everyone dies.

Would it definitely happen, no. Is it likely to happen, yes.

So starting a conventional war between nuclear powers risks the destruction of world.

Is that risk worth declaring Taiwan official independent, as oppose to its de factor independence?

	16-07-2005 12:05									#82
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Yes, because in any war at this time, China would lose. If they fought us conventionally, China would lose. So they won't, because they know that it would be up to them to escolate, according to Dyer. If they escolated, they might hit a few of our cities, but all of China would be destroyed, and a billion people killed, if the US chose to. China won't attack conventionally, because it's a no win situation. So, Tiawan would be independant. If this happened, the current leadership of China would be shamed, they would fall in a short time, and democracy take root.

It all starts with independance for Tiawan, the rest of China will join Tiawan in time, not the other way around.

Play China's bluff.

Last edited by Lancer on 16-07-2005 at 12:19

	16-07-2005 12:06									#83
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Let's give it back to the Portuguese, problem solved.

	16-07-2005 12:08									#84
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Ted, damnit, you going to make this Phil trip or what pal?

	16-07-2005 12:18									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Lancer Yes, because in any war at this time, China would lose. If they fought us conventionally, China would lose. So they won't, because they know that it would be up to them to escolate. If they escolated, they might hit a few of our cities, but all of China would be destroyed, and a billion people killed, if the US chose to. China won't attack conventionally, because it's a no win situation. So, Tiawan would be independant. If this happened, the current leadership of China would be shamed, they would fall in a short time, and democracy take root. It all starts with independance for Tiawan, the rest of China will join Tiawan in time, not the other way around. Play China's bluff.

You're making a gamble that the Chinese government will think rationally in a time of crisis. If you're wrong, the world gets destroyed.

If you're right, we have a massive conventional war, millions of deaths, and in the end Taiwan is just as indepenant as it is now.

Maybe, the communist government falls and in it's place we get Iraq magnified a million-fold with warlords and civil war just as there was in the first half of the 20th century, a civil war that ended with the communists winning.

You're gambling millions of people's lives, perhaps the world, so that Taiwan can have what it already has.

	16-07-2005 12:24									#86
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Well, bring it.

Last edited by Lancer on 16-07-2005 at 17:02

	16-07-2005 12:35									#87
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blah

Last edited by Lancer on 16-07-2005 at 17:01

	16-07-2005 12:38									#88
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quote: Originally posted by Lancer No, China gets destroyed, not "the world". It's kind of humorous to me that you're using Nixon's strategy of insanity that he used to attempt to force North Vietnam to the bargaining table. Yeah, like China is crazy enough to risk destruction on the outside chance they'll attain Tiawan. You know, the US is ready to lay waste to China. Is China able to destroy America? Well, bring it.

The only one being insane here is you. No American president would risk the immolation of even one American city. The Chinese aren't going to risk it either.

Try again.

	16-07-2005 12:39									#89
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon The only one being insane here is you. No American president would risk the immolation of even one American city. The Chinese aren't going to risk it either. Try again.

blah

	16-07-2005 14:53									#90
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War crimes charges? There can be no such charges against you when you're a WINNER.