19-07-2005 06:00									#181
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quote: The US doesn't have many planes that could easily and on a regular basis hit targets in Central Asia. One mission, fine, but after that the air defenses around it would be radically increased and trying to send any more long range bombers in would be less and less effective.

Stealth bombers. And my bet is any of our B-52's can hit a target even deep in China... remember we can launch from Taiwan or probably Japan.

quote: The cost of keeping the pipe repaired would be minimal. You can;t possibly think it otherwise. Its a pipe, for heaven's sake.

Why do you think pipelines cost so much to build?

	19-07-2005 06:03									#182
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quote: remember we can launch from Taiwan or probably Japan.

Or Kabul...

	19-07-2005 06:05									#183
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Or Uzbekistan, for that matter.

	19-07-2005 06:05									#184
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker quote: The US doesn't have many planes that could easily and on a regular basis hit targets in Central Asia. One mission, fine, but after that the air defenses around it would be radically increased and trying to send any more long range bombers in would be less and less effective. Stealth bombers. And my bet is any of our B-52's can hit a target even deep in China... remember we can launch from Taiwan or probably Japan.

B-52 are not the type of bomber you use without having air superiority anymore. Chinese air defenses would certainly be able to stop them at sucha rate as to make the raids too expensive in planes and crews. As for Stealth bombers, they are few, very expensive to fly, and even then, if the Chinese know were they are coming to attack, it sort of defeats the purpose.

Even in the best case, the Chinese switch to trucking it in.

quote: Why do you think pipelines cost so much to build?

The overall lenght, plus getting the ground prepared so forth. Railroads aren;t cheap to build either, but you can repair them easily. When insurgents blow up pipelines in Iraq it delays oil for only a few days.

The US could not cut the flow to oil to China today anymore than we could cut the flow to Germany 55 years ago, other than actually making sure other states stopped shipping to China, which is not going to happen.

	19-07-2005 06:06									#185
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quote: B-52 are not the type of bomber you use without having air superiority anymore.

Why wouldn't we have air superiority?

quote: As for Stealth bombers, they are few, very expensive to fly, and even then, if the Chinese know were they are coming to attack, it sort of defeats the purpose.

Not if they don't know where along the miles and miles of pipeline it's going to hit...

quote: The overall lenght, plus getting the ground prepared so forth. Railroads aren;t cheap to build either, but you can repair them easily. When insurgents blow up pipelines in Iraq it delays oil for only a few days.

I imagine railroads are hard to repair if you blow them up in fifteen places at once.

	19-07-2005 06:07									#186
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: remember we can launch from Taiwan or probably Japan. Or Kabul...

Right, cause the new Afghan goevrnment would be that stupid. Letting a foreign power attack from your territory is an act of war. Last time I looked, Afghanistan border China.

And as for Uzbekistan, if it had to chose pissing of China or the US right now, the US is the clear loser.

	19-07-2005 06:08									#187
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quote: Right, cause the new Afghan goevrnment would be that stupid. Letting a foreign power attack from your territory is an act of war. Last time I looked, Afghanistan border China.

Last time I checked, it was US troops in Kabul.

	19-07-2005 06:11									#188
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker Why wouldn't we have air superiority?

Because China is as big as the US, as tens of thousands of planes and SAM missiles, and the US does no have any reliable bases over which the US could lauch poorly defended refueling planes capable of making sure fighters could actually patrol over central asia. That's why. Establishing air superiority over the battlefield or a small country is very different from an area bigger than the Continental US.

quote: Not if they don't know where along the miles and miles of pipeline it's going to hit...

That still limits the target area significantly. Plus, a single bomb hit won't do mcuh long term

quote: I imagine railroads are hard to repair if you blow them up in fifteen places at once.

nope, not with enough manpower ready to do it. Two nights at most. And if you think we would have 15 stealth bombers hitting either a pipeline or a railroad on the same night and on a regular basis, I think you are in dreamland.

	19-07-2005 06:13									#189
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker quote: Right, cause the new Afghan goevrnment would be that stupid. Letting a foreign power attack from your territory is an act of war. Last time I looked, Afghanistan border China. Last time I checked, it was US troops in Kabul.

Oh, yeah, 10,000 US troops scattered on the areas facing Pakistan will really do much.

They can't stop the freaking Taliban, they are going to stop a real army?

	19-07-2005 06:15									#190
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quote: Last time I looked, Afghanistan border China.

Yeah, at one tiny point in the heart of the biggest mountains on the planet. Just perfect for an invasion...

	19-07-2005 06:17									#191
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quote: Originally posted by GePap The overall lenght, plus getting the ground prepared so forth. Railroads aren;t cheap to build either, but you can repair them easily. When insurgents blow up pipelines in Iraq it delays oil for only a few days. The US could not cut the flow to oil to China today anymore than we could cut the flow to Germany 55 years ago, other than actually making sure other states stopped shipping to China, which is not going to happen.

We could interdict tankers headed for China via the Straits of Malacca or the South China Sea, but that would also wreak havoc on tanker traffic headed to Taiwan, Southeast Asia and Japan. And depending on far out in the sticks the pipeline is, it might take days to repair it, especially if pumping stations are hit.

	19-07-2005 06:18									#192
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Oh, yeah, 10,000 US troops scattered on the areas facing Pakistan will really do much.

If they move to Kabul? Yes.

quote: They can't stop the freaking Taliban, they are going to stop a real army?

Yes, actually.

	19-07-2005 06:19									#193
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quote: Originally posted by Timexwatch We could interdict tankers headed for China via the Straits of Malacca or the South China Sea, but that would also wreak havoc on tanker traffic headed to Taiwan, Southeast Asia and Japan. And depending on far out in the sticks the pipeline is, it might take days to repair it, especially if pumping stations are hit.

Plus, I imagine a bomber could just fly straight over the pipeline and drop each of its bombs at regular intervals.

	19-07-2005 06:20									#194
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: Last time I looked, Afghanistan border China. Yeah, at one tiny point in the heart of the biggest mountains on the planet. Just perfect for an invasion...

China doesn;'t need to invade, It can simply come up with proxies, arm them, and make things miserable for any Afghan government. Hell, even now Karzai is trying to back away from the US. Imagine his troubles if a great power started fnding the opposition.

Sorry if you guys wish to ignore all reality, but no states in Central Asia will allow the US to carry out combat missions vs. China (an act of war on their parts) for something as utterly irrelevant to them as whether China gets Taiwan.

	19-07-2005 06:22									#195
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker If they move to Kabul? Yes.

And thus leave the south to fall the Taliban. Yes, perfect.

quote: Yes, actually.

Right....

	19-07-2005 06:23									#196
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quote: Originally posted by GePap And thus leave the south to fall the Taliban. Yes, perfect.

You think we'll care about the Taliban if we're at war with China?

quote: Right....

Isn't the whole point that it's rather more difficult for us to face irregular armies than normal ones? That's why the insurgency in Iraq has been so much more difficult than the actual invasion.

	19-07-2005 06:24									#197
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quote: Originally posted by GePap China doesn;'t need to invade, It can simply come up with proxies, arm them, and make things miserable for any Afghan government. Hell, even now Karzai is trying to back away from the US. Imagine his troubles if a great power started fnding the opposition. Sorry if you guys wish to ignore all reality, but no states in Central Asia will allow the US to carry out combat missions vs. China (an act of war on their parts) for something as utterly irrelevant to them as whether China gets Taiwan.

I guess we'll just have to stick with airbases in Taiwan, well within range of any targets in China

	19-07-2005 06:24									#198
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quote: China doesn;'t need to invade

Why the hell did you bring up the fact that Afghanistan borders China, then? Or wonder if America could stop a "real army" in Afghanistan? You don't need to share a border to support proxies. It's helpful in getting your "real army" into the country, however.

Sounds like someone is backpedaling...

	19-07-2005 06:25									#199
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Don't be mean, Drake

	19-07-2005 06:26									#200
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker I guess we'll just have to stick with airbases in Taiwan, well within range of any targets in China

Except that they aren't, and that's the point.

Unless you believe for some wild reason that you gain air superiority with bombers.....

The afct the US had to go looking for bases in Uzbekistan to hit in Afghanistan even with its bases in the gulf should at least make you understand a bit about the problems involved. Or not, I guess.

	19-07-2005 06:29									#201
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: China doesn;'t need to invade Why the hell did you bring up the fact that Afghanistan borders China, then? Or wonder if America could stop a "real army" in Afghanistan? You don't need to share a border to support proxies. It's helpful in getting your "real army" into the country, however. Sounds like someone is backpedaling...

Maybe because its easier to arm and support a proxy army if your goods don;t even have to cross through a third party?

But yes, the thread of Chinese invasion alone would be enough to ward off the notion of Afghanistan commiting an act of war vs China. The HImalayas did not protect India from China in 1962, and China certainly has forces capable of fighting in such terrain.

	19-07-2005 06:29									#202
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Although the larger question is whether or not Japan (or Korea) will allow us to use our bases there, and whether or not China will consider U.S. bases in Korea and Japan constitute legitimate targets.

	19-07-2005 06:34									#203
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quote: But yes, the thread of Chinese invasion alone would be enough to ward off the notion of Afghanistan commiting an act of war vs China.

There is no threat. China would have to go all the way through the thin corridor jutting out of northeast Afghanistan, over some of the highest mountains in the world, while being attacked by the best air force in the world. It's impossible and not a plausible threat.



Then again, you probably think the route is "relatively flat"...

	19-07-2005 06:34									#204
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker You think we'll care about the Taliban if we're at war with China?

I think the Afghans would care about the Taliban, and they are the ones with final say about how their territory is used, and 10,000 American trops there aren't enough to make Afghanistan do anything.

quote: Isn't the whole point that it's rather more difficult for us to face irregular armies than normal ones? That's why the insurgency in Iraq has been so much more difficult than the actual invasion.

Depends on the issue. Irregular forces have a very dififuclt time threatening the very existance of the conventional forces arrayed against them-but another large conventional force can destroy those convetnional forces.

To compare the Iraqi army of 2003 to the Chinese army of 2003 is a rather strange position. To compare the fighting ability of 150,000 men vs the fighitng power of 10,000 men is also a bit much.

	19-07-2005 06:39									#205
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Except that they aren't, and that's the point.

The B-2 can hit targets from the Midwest.

quote: The afct the US had to go looking for bases in Uzbekistan to hit in Afghanistan even with its bases in the gulf should at least make you understand a bit about the problems involved. Or not, I guess.

Yes, that F-16's and A-10's don't have ranges in the thousands of kilometers.

	19-07-2005 06:40									#206
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I think the Afghans would care about the Taliban, and they are the ones with final say about how their territory is used,

quote: and 10,000 American trops there aren't enough to make Afghanistan do anything.

	19-07-2005 06:43									#207
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quote: [SIZE=1] Originally posted by Drake Tungsten There is no threat. China would have to go all the way through the thin corridor jutting out of northeast Afghanistan, over some of the highest mountains in the world, while being harrassed by the best air force in the world the whole way. It's impossible and not a plausible threat.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milit...rt/1984/CJB.htm

quote: Finally, the PLA was well prepared for this type of war- fare. The troops had warm, padded uniforms. They carried only what rations they needed to complete a particular mis- sion. And they trained and practiced mobility, moving through mountain passes or over ridges at night, encircling the enemy. Even their mortars and small artillery was mobile. The Indian soldiers would report that the Chinese burp gun and human wave assaults were "demoralizing." Despite its defense budget problems, the People's Libera- tion Army appeared to be prepared and ready for military opera- tions in the Himalayas.

Back in 1962 the Chinese were capable of operations in the HImalayas.

The power of airforces against mountains is far less than against those in open plain, It is questionable planes would be even able to fnd targets. The worse the mountains, the less airpower can actually do. And I doubt the Afghans would be able to defend that strip against the Chinese.

	19-07-2005 06:44									#208
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quote: Originally posted by GePap To compare the Iraqi army of 2003 to the Chinese army of 2003 is a rather strange position. To compare the fighting ability of 150,000 men vs the fighitng power of 10,000 men is also a bit much.

Fighting along a tiny 100-mile strip of mountains?

EDIT: drake made the point already

	19-07-2005 06:44									#209
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker The B-2 can hit targets from the Midwest.

As long as they keep getting refuled from the air at regular intervals. And again, B-2 are expensive and rare.

	19-07-2005 06:46									#210
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker Fighting along a tiny 100-mile strip of mountains?

Yesw, of course, the US will send its tropps there, leaving the Afghan government even MORE isolated at home.

And as for your laughing, to think the US cold impose its will on Afghanistan with 10,000 men if the government was against it is laughable.

The soviets could not do it with fare bigger forces with greater firepower.

10,000 US troops can do what they do in Afghanistan with the support of the government and its supporters.