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BlackCat
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
Who told you the Peak Oil was a theory that oil was going to run out? It's just going to get more expensive - a lot more expensive. All of the alternatives will be expensive too. |
I think that you have something wrong- oil may get more expensive, but that will only help alternatives - they keep on becoming less expensive. Some day people will consider oil as a nuicanse if they find it in their neighbourhood.
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BlackCat
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
That may be true in the future, but at the time that world oil production peaks all of the viable alternatives to oil will be just as expensive as oil. |
When prices go up, just imgine the enourmous reduction in gas comsumption that will happen when american cars goes from 8 to 20 km/l.
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BlackCat
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quote:
Originally posted by Kidicious
I don't imagine this to make a big difference. I imagine that you will still see a lot of SUVs on the road thoughout the crisis. |
Yeah, I gess that for a period people will suffer in other places before they will cut on gasoline consumption, but when they figure out that driving vehicehles using at least thrice of others cost them a fortune, the will change.
In some ways, americans are idiots, in others they aren't - they just need a lagre kick in their arses to become sensible.
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BlackCat
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quote:
Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
But it won't be a Peak Oil CRISIS. It won't immediately spring upon us, with us wondering what to do. If oil production hits its "peak", we'll have moved on already or will be in the process of doing so. |
Exactly my thoughts. No doubt that oil will decrease as the major source of energy, especially when it increases in price and thereby make other sources valid (may be the wrong word).
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Spiffor
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CPA - Evil Clone brigade
Nov 2001
time: 06:37
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quote:
Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
But it won't be a Peak Oil CRISIS. It won't immediately spring upon us, with us wondering what to do. If oil production hits its "peak", we'll have moved on already or will be in the process of doing so. |
I partly disagree.
If the current situation is anything to go by, the energy companies will cling to oil for as long as possible, and lobby their way for it to last as long as possible (thus pushing back in time the transition, and thus making it more brutal).
In order to reduce oil consumption, you don't merely need a better price for other energy dources. You also need an infrastructure that can create and transfer that energy. Nuke plants take quite a few years to be built (and I bet fusion plants would take even longer): the later you start building these plants, the more brutal the transition. Alternate fuel for cars and trucks would rock, but they mean nothing if you can't find them at your local fuel depot. If the oil companies resisst the change (which would be perfectly reasonable, as they'd be protecting their profits), they'll do everything to avoid the spread of alternate fuels on the territory.
Point is, when we reach the "peak oil", whenever it is, we won't be prepared well in advance. Like we often do, we'll act only once in deep ****, hich means the crisis will be about as important as the 70's oil shocks were for Europe. Not a dark age, but a genuine economic crisis.
The difference between Europe and the US on fuel consumption is indicative of my point BTW. Since we had barely any oil on our territory, the crisis was much worse for us than for the US. And even today, we are extremely advanced wrt fuel-efficiency (in cars, but also in other consumer goods), whereas the Yanks continue to be as gas-guzzling as ever. If it's not a proof that we only do things when forced to, I don't know what it is 
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Apolyton Time is 00:37. |
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29-07-2005 04:52
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