29-07-2005 13:03									#61
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explain to me what is 'peak oil'

	29-07-2005 13:13									#62
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia explain to me what is 'peak oil'

From wikipedia:
The Hubbert peak theory, also known as peak oil, is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil (and other fossil fuel) extraction and depletion. It predicts that future world oil production will reach a peak and then rapidly decline. The actual peak year will only be known after it has passed

	29-07-2005 13:29									#63
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tell me, how does future world oil production hit a 'peak' if prices are always rising - that would seem to show that more and more oil fields become profitable to drill.

	29-07-2005 13:40									#64
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Ofcorse this peak assumes a completly Free-Market consumption of oil, the whole OPEC cartel and oil embargo has already deviated oil production off of the curcve it was on and is oil is now being released onto the market based on the whims of Arab Princes. This makes the whole thing suspect.

Lets also be clear here, "Geologic Oil" the stuff we pump out of the Ground is a non-renewable resorse and THUS its production must eventualy decline.

This is not to say that the world must or will run out of "Oil" defined as "liquid hydrocarbons I can but in an internal combustion engine and burn". Already we are getting a significant portion of our "Oil" from sources other then Geologic Oil. It is entirly possible for us to someday transition to completly Renewable sources of Oil atwhich point Geologic oil might simply be abandoned as the remaining deposits could become unprofitable.

	29-07-2005 13:53									#65
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Oil will never run out. All that will happen is that when its price starts to rise, other fuel technologies become viable and widespread.

At present, they are not.

	29-07-2005 14:23									#66
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia tell me, how does future world oil production hit a 'peak' if prices are always rising - that would seem to show that more and more oil fields become profitable to drill.

As Impaler said, there is a finite supply of geological oil on earth. Even though we are not tapping all potential sources yet, there's a moment where there will be no new oil fields ripe for drilling.

The question is not whether it will happen (everybody, even oil companies, agree that the depletion of this geological resource is bound to happen), but when, how, and to what effect.

	29-07-2005 14:32									#67
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quote: Ofcorse this peak assumes a completly Free-Market consumption of oil, the whole OPEC cartel and oil embargo has already deviated oil production off of the curcve it was on and is oil is now being released onto the market based on the whims of Arab Princes. This makes the whole thing suspect. Lets also be clear here, "Geologic Oil" the stuff we pump out of the Ground is a non-renewable resorse and THUS its production must eventualy decline.

what do you mean its production will decline? production will remain at full possible, no matter how much is left. if we have 10 oil wells total in the world, all of them will be running at full capacity. no 'peak' will ever get reached. oil is only limited by how quickly we can get it ou and how much we get out a day. no peak is ever reached in supply.

	29-07-2005 14:45									#68
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Are you drunk, or are you just a fanatic?

	29-07-2005 14:56									#69
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I'm sceptical that a gas-guzzling society like America will be able to quickly change direction with no real problems.

	29-07-2005 15:13									#70
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor As Impaler said, there is a finite supply of geological oil on earth.

Stricly speaking, I suppose so. But some of that oil can not be drilled economically unless the price of oil is above $80. Ditto $100$ a barrel etc. Only when oil becomes more expensive than the next viable technology will oil consumption start to really decline.

Let the markets do their work rather than all this scare-mongering.

	29-07-2005 15:14									#71
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Spiffor's anaylysis is largely correct. One of the reasons that, given the current state of the USA economy, fuel sector, and transportation sector, that our fuel demand is largely inelastic, at least in the short term. The, the US economy, due to its not engaging in the lead-in technologies/infrastructure/mass transit will be hit VERY hard when a pseudo-peak oil point hits.

But it won't be "Peak Oil" per se. It will be "Peak Cheap Oil". If the US would grow up, and eliminate one of those "Perfect Storms" - the oil companies tremendous level of political access in the US, and the Greens denial of actual technological levels along with their fanatical insistance everybody think like they do - then we could start the transition now, gong with semi-electric cars with tuned 5HP generators - I believe Volvo was working hard on the tech before the morons in California insisted the lack of zero emmission vehicles was conspiracy, not real-technology (versus real-politik) - where a family Station Wagon gets 70 MPG.

The adjustments will hit the USA paticularly hard, unless Congress and both parties get their butts in gear. I don't see it happening until after the crisis hits, so the USA will hit a very long period of very low economic growth due to the increase in energy prices. I see no way around that unless in the next decade or so we get a political leader who can get past the free market mantra (say mostly inelastic demand three times to banish that demon) and a total marginalization of the Green element in the Conservation movement. Kismet.

	29-07-2005 16:17									#72
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spiffs analysis is largely not correct - there is no peak oil. even if there are no more oil fields left to drill, we still haven't reached 'peak oil' - supply has been decreasing since the day we started drilling. the only peak there ever was, was before we started digging, when 100% of oil was still in the ground.

	29-07-2005 16:18									#73
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor As Impaler said, there is a finite supply of geological oil on earth. Even though we are not tapping all potential sources yet, there's a moment where there will be no new oil fields ripe for drilling. The question is not whether it will happen (everybody, even oil companies, agree that the depletion of this geological resource is bound to happen), but when, how, and to what effect.

Given the vast amounts of currently uneconomical oil that can be exploited, this peak would occur far in the future, after oil production has already fallen off due to new energy technologies (they'll eventually happen).

	29-07-2005 16:24									#74
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia spiffs analysis is largely not correct - there is no peak oil. even if there are no more oil fields left to drill, we still haven't reached 'peak oil' - supply has been decreasing since the day we started drilling. the only peak there ever was, was before we started digging, when 100% of oil was still in the ground.

"peak oil" is not my analysis. I just told you the definition from Wikipedia, and the concept can be criticized. What I'm speaking about in my analysis is not "peak oil", it's the fact that oil will one day become rarer, and thus much more expansive.

And that the reality of the world (not that world of mathematical formulae you seem to live in) will make it a time of economic hardships.

	29-07-2005 16:26									#75
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker Given the vast amounts of currently uneconomical oil that can be exploited, this peak would occur far in the future, after oil production has already fallen off due to new energy technologies (they'll eventually happen).

According to Wikipedia, the most optimistic specialists expect "peak oil" to occur toward the end of the century. This is not so far in the future that we'd live in a world where energy technology will be completely different.

Especially if we remain complacent, and thus dependent of oil for our energy.

	29-07-2005 16:35									#76
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quote: "peak oil" is not my analysis. I just told you the definition from Wikipedia, and the concept can be criticized. What I'm speaking about in my analysis is not "peak oil", it's the fact that oil will one day become rarer, and thus much more expansive. And that the reality of the world (not that world of mathematical formulae you seem to live in) will make it a time of economic hardships.

in that case i agree with you. whats good for me tho, is that its still a world of mathematical formulae that predicts this, and thats a demand schedual that has a positive slope and a supply schedual that has a negative slope.

quote: According to Wikipedia, the most optimistic specialists expect "peak oil" to occur toward the end of the century. This is not so far in the future that we'd live in a world where energy technology will be completely different. Especially if we remain complacent, and thus dependent of oil for our energy.

you can bet that if prices go to 1970s level for a prolonged time, people will switch away from oil and towards something else. they started doing it to an extent already in the 70s.

	29-07-2005 16:55									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue Oil will never run out. All that will happen is that when its price starts to rise, other fuel technologies become viable and widespread. At present, they are not.

If you believe that, I've got a perpetual motion machine you might be interested in investing in...



Snake oil is the fuel of the future!

	29-07-2005 16:57									#78
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"If you believe that"

Which bit do you disagree with?

	29-07-2005 17:00									#79
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue "If you believe that" Which bit do you disagree with?

What's to disagree with? You're just flat-out wrong. As already mentioned, oil is called a "non-renewable" resource (re: finite ) for a reason...

	29-07-2005 17:05									#80
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Doesn't mean it will run out.

	29-07-2005 17:10									#81
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Our ability and desire to collect it will. We're gobbling it up exponentially and at this rate our consumption will surpass our technologies' ability to supply at reasonable costs.

	29-07-2005 17:19									#82
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia you can bet that if prices go to 1970s level for a prolonged time, people will switch away from oil and towards something else. they started doing it to an extent already in the 70s.

Yes. But switching away takes time, and it creates a transition phase. Since the oil lobbies are very powerful in the US, I expect the oil companies to be able to postpone the mandatory adjustment for as long as possible (by discouraging research on renewable fuel sources, by encouraging oil power plants to be built, by not promoting technologies and lifestyles that guzzle less gas).
And as a result, the American society will experience a shock instead of a gentle adaptation to a new energetic paradigm. Europe is likely to suffer less, considering that many European countries have attempted to reduce their dependancy to oil.

	29-07-2005 17:20									#83
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Right, cuz we've never run out of anything before.

	29-07-2005 17:42									#84
	Re: How are you preparing for 'Peak Oil' / The coming oil crisis Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

I ride my bike anywhere within six miles of my home, and take public transportation anywhere else.

If I get a job in Dade or Palm Beach counties (or even Western Broward), I will get a car, however. I don't want to commute for more than an hour. If car pooling is an option, I'll take it.

	29-07-2005 19:35									#85
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LoA,

It's called a supply shock. Look it up in your econ book.

Spif,

You might want to only explain it to him once. He never really gets it, unless he gets it the first time.

	29-07-2005 19:39									#86
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Right, cuz we've never run out of anything before.

A few examples please just so we know where you're coming from.

	29-07-2005 19:49									#87
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I'm always runnng out of beer, I live in a village and if i have to buy it from the local shop it costs a fortune.

	29-07-2005 20:07									#88
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I feel I should again quote Sheik Yamani (the Saudi Oil minister during the 1970's and 1980's):

"The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stone, the Oil Age won't end because we'll run out of oil"

	29-07-2005 20:07									#89
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the energy crisis is a myth

	29-07-2005 20:17									#90
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quote: Originally posted by el freako I feel I should again quote Sheik Yamani (the Saudi Oil minister during the 1970's and 1980's): "The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stone, the Oil Age won't end because we'll run out of oil"

The Saudis what people to believe that they have plenty of cheap oil so that people will keep planning to buy it. They have to keep the price low though otherwise people begin to suspect. In order to keep the price low they have to sometimes pump more than is good for their wells. The crisis will hit when these wells become damaged from over production.