27-08-2005 14:15									#31
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Yep

	27-08-2005 14:15									#32
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China needs oil, dude, and the world isn't going to find the same sort of cheap sources that exist in the ME just lying around

We're not going to run out of oil any time soon, but people are going to be able to charge more for it than they have in the past

	27-08-2005 14:19									#33
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I agree. Chinese are drinking that oil like Jon Miller and Krazyhorse at the TGI Friday's in Foggy Bottom DC.

	27-08-2005 14:21									#34
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I think the Indians are still lagging behind in their oil consumption, but also starting to drink it up also.

	27-08-2005 14:24									#35
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Why do physicists drink so much?

It's not the start of a joke. It's a real question. All the physics grad students I know drink like fish (except for the Chinese kids; I don't hang out with them)

	27-08-2005 14:26									#36
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Maybe physicists use a part of their brain that gets overworked by all that crazy formulas, and that part of the brain overheats, and drinking is a way of putting ice on it to cool it down.

	27-08-2005 23:33									#37
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Why? It'll get preferential buys from the EU if it denominates in euros, which means (given the likely preponderance of euro versus US imports from Iran) that they'd actually get a slightly better price than they were getting before...

If Iran artifically limits the number of bidders for its products, why would those bidders bid more than they have to? They would bid the minimum they could get away with. Fewer bidders means lower bids.

	28-08-2005 02:08									#38
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quote: Originally posted by pchang If Iran artifically limits the number of bidders for its products, why would those bidders bid more than they have to? They would bid the minimum they could get away with. Fewer bidders means lower bids.

and since they don't have the refining capacity to actually use the oil they'd have to turn around and sell it to us.

	28-08-2005 02:08									#39
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger If Euro replaces the USD as the standard global currency, nasty things can happen to the US, esp. with its ability to live on borrowed $.

living on borrowed $ sucks arse anyway. All it means is that the US becomes a net exporter of capital rather than breaking even or being a net exporter of goods and services.

	28-08-2005 02:10									#40
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker We're already headed for another recession I think

Well I can't say I'll notice much difference apart from the fed no longer hiking interests rates.

	28-08-2005 02:12									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Mr. President More than 40% of America's oil consumption is produced in America. Another 22% comes from Canada and Mexico. Just another Asian writer waffling on the imminent doom of the U.S. without feeling the need to resort to facts or knowledge. Once the hydrogen economy is economical those oil producing countries are going to feel really stupid. And so, coincidentally, is everybody who lives in this forum.

hydrogen will almost certainly require as much oil to produce economically as gasoline does. No other energy source for the generation of the hydrogen would likely be competitive or in the case of coal as environmentally friendly as using oil to generate the hydrogen.

	28-08-2005 02:15									#42
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energy independence,barring a massive advances, means gutting environmental rules. coal/shale to oil is dirty. its also going to mean not allowing the market to control the process.

	28-08-2005 10:03									#43
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quote: Originally posted by pchang If Iran artifically limits the number of bidders for its products, why would those bidders bid more than they have to? They would bid the minimum they could get away with. Fewer bidders means lower bids.

Except in this case, the sellers have all the cards. They can reduce production, thus creating a situation where buyers will be forced to pay more.

	28-08-2005 10:34									#44
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Except in this case, the sellers have all the cards. They can reduce production, thus creating a situation where buyers will be forced to pay more.

only if countries with lots of excess production capacity like Saudi arabia don't take advantage of irans reduction in production to grab more market share for Saudi arabia without lowering prices.

	28-08-2005 15:49									#45
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lets say the auto industry shapes up and goes with a alternative power source...lets say battery powered

IMO:
1. there is no infrastructure, cost passed onto consumer
2. there would be no common interchangeable battery type
(consumer gets hosed just like Plasma/LCD tv fiasco going on)
3. big money just changes from oil to battery
4. all batteries to be built in China?

	28-08-2005 20:34									#46
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quote: Originally posted by Geronimo only if countries with lots of excess production capacity like Saudi arabia don't take advantage of irans reduction in production to grab more market share for Saudi arabia without lowering prices.

That is a possibility, although I have never heard a cartel that would not go for maximising profit margin.

	29-08-2005 18:42									#47
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To date, OPEC (and Saudi Arabia especially) have appeared to act to maximize cash flow, not profit margin.

	29-08-2005 22:49									#48
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The current problem with a hydrogen economy — other than the fact that there's not that many hydrogen fueling stations — is the fact that, in order to acquire the hydrogen, we'd have to pull it out of coal, oil and whatnot.

That particular process is a dirty one, although scientists are working on ways to get around that (and to get hydrogen from non-petroleum sources). So while vehicles and whatnot would burn hydrogen cleanly, how we get said hydrogen in the first place wouldn't be so clean, at least as it stands now.

Gatekeeper

	29-08-2005 23:02									#49
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quote: Originally posted by Joseph Guys What would have happen, if the US did not buy a drop of Oil for a month from all of these little Oil kindom?

Well, with our strategic petrol reserves -I think- at 3 months, I'd expect the rest of the world to have cheaper oil prices, America's oil prices roughly the same, and not-too-pleasant results for the economy.

Besides, most of the oil in the reserve is second-string in nature, not the good stuff.

	29-08-2005 23:04									#50
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Incidentally, the article points to the notion that since some nations are considering putting their foreign exchange holdings to oil--a form of stored energy--one wonders how prescient the energy currency world of SMAC is.

	30-08-2005 12:08									#51
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Once you have fusion the bottom is going to fall out of the energy market.

	30-08-2005 13:26									#52
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper Taxes and Americans generally don't mix, unless there's some obvious threat breathing down our necks. Dependence on oil doesn't count because most folks cannot — or refuse to — take the long-term view and see what awaits us just over the horizon.

But there are plenty of wealthy technologically advanced people who aren't Americans and who pay at least twice as much as we do for gasoline who haven't yet discovered a magical means for replacing petroleum. Some proven technologies just can't compete with petroleum on a cost basis even with a fair bit of competitive advantage due to taxes and supply difficulties. Other technologies seem to be waiting for a tech breakthrough or two before they can be realized even in demonstration modes.

This tells me that while there may be a lucky breakthrough that changes the way we produce energy, it is unlikely that this will happen soon. A lot of people have been looking into this for decades and there doesn't appear to be an easy solution around the corner. Which is too bad of course. I'd like to see some more taxes on petroleum in order to promote conservation and increase the potential payoff for anyone doing reasearch in the area, but I'm doubtful that this will itself produce a scientific breakthrough which could justify a Manhattan project style demonstration anytime soon.

	30-08-2005 13:27									#53
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Once you have fusion the bottom is going to fall out of the energy market.

I thought we were playing with random events off.

	30-08-2005 20:58									#54
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Yeah, but you still have the Planetary Council.

	30-08-2005 22:00									#55
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quote: Originally posted by pchang If Iran artifically limits the number of bidders for its products, why would those bidders bid more than they have to? They would bid the minimum they could get away with. Fewer bidders means lower bids.

Huh? It's not limiting the number of bidders. If it was simply banning US bidders then this would be the situation, however it's not. If they denominate in, say, euros then they will get a large influx of bidders (europeans) and a small outflow of bidders (americans) given the cost of transportation involved.

Therefore they have more bidders overall.

	31-08-2005 06:52									#56
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Huh? It's not limiting the number of bidders. If it was simply banning US bidders then this would be the situation, however it's not. If they denominate in, say, euros then they will get a large influx of bidders (europeans) and a small outflow of bidders (americans) given the cost of transportation involved. Therefore they have more bidders overall.

And the americans (and anybody else) could still bid in dollars right? so it doesn't actually leave any denomination in the cold?

	31-08-2005 07:50									#57
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quote: Originally posted by Sikander But there are plenty of wealthy technologically advanced people who aren't Americans and who pay at least twice as much as we do for gasoline who haven't yet discovered a magical means for replacing petroleum.

That's true; instead, they have found ways to limit the role of oil in their economies. For one thing, they tax the hell out of gasoline to discourage overconsumption. For another, they spend that tax money on a real public transit infrastructure and real railroads.

The fact remains that we have the highest motivation to wean ourselves off oil, because we are (by far) the greatest per-capita consumers. The solution isn't going to come from another G8 country, because the rewards for their own societies aren't worth the investment.

But I'm with Gatekeeper. We went from zero to A-Bomb in less than five years; we went from near-zero to moon landing in less than 10. There's no reason a concerted R & D effort couldn't rid us of at least gasoline dependency, if not oil dependency, within a decade. It just takes social and political will.

	31-08-2005 07:52									#58
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We went from zero to a-bomb, not zero to all electricity in the US supplied from nuclear. We went from zero to man on the moon, not from zero to a moon colony.

	31-08-2005 07:56									#59
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker We went from zero to a-bomb, not zero to all electricity in the US supplied from nuclear. We went from zero to man on the moon, not from zero to a moon colony.

Fair enough. First you need the technology though. You can then encourage/mandate adoption. Look at how quickly we got rid of leaded gas, for example.

	31-08-2005 07:59									#60
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US cities seem to have been designed with private transportation instead of public transportation in mind; the cities are all sprawled out with low population density. This also increases the time and energy required to go from one place to another.