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shawnmmcc
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I'm just a briefer, not a forecaster. In fact a portion of my training was to make sure I do not forecast, as that would make the FAA liable - but I can say the weather is improving/getting worse faster than forecast, slower than forecast, or different than forecast. I know the distinction sounds silly, but Imran could probably do a better job than I can of explaining why that makes our lawyers happy.
The guys at the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) are pretty damn good at this. They predicted Katrina right on the money. As I said, they have gotten excellent at predicting impact, but they still hedge their bets because a Hurricane is the 800 pound gorilla of the weather world. Where does it sit? Wherever it decides to. 
Once it come inland it gets harder to predict. Given where you live I would definitely get plywood for my windows, make sure I can put my autos, pets, children, and husband (last optional) indoors, and if I live where there is flooding start moving things out of the basement or first floor (and remember with the amount of rain you could get you may end up very surprised at the kind of flooding you can get - my rule of thumb is that if it's below ground level and you can move it, get it out.
Look at it as an opportunity to clean all the corners, and get rid of the stuff that's accumulated. Plus good exercise for all and sundry. As an aside, especially for Tubes - consider getting one of the weight lifting belts that are especially broad across the back, and velcro in place (not the leather ones). When lifting something heavy, you help him tighten it, as I've told my friends - like you are squeezing the goo out of a catepillar. It works, and helps prevent those back injuries that start in the 30's and get worse in the 40's and 50's. No matter how good a shape you are in, the spinal discs are starting to age and are more subject to damage. You might consider one for yourself - they can be sorta cute, my wife has one.  Watch knees and ankles do when lifting heavy crap up the stairs, and wear braces as appropriate for previous injuries. If it has been injured, wear the brace. By the time it hurts enough that you decide to put it on, it is too late.
You also might want to purchase those cheap tarps they have at some stores and put them on your stuff upstairs, that way if you lose some shingles and get water from roof leaks you'll safe the stuff. Make sure you have PLENTY of drinkable water, and food that does not need heating. Also make sure you have as much ice as you can make with your freezer. In fact you may want to put in milk jugs mostly full of water and freeze them, just in case the power fails. If it doesn't, move them down into the fridge until they thaw, so you don't totally waste the power spent. If you have one, place a thermometer in the fridge so you can see what temperature it has thawed to, so you know the point to start cooking/throwing things out. Remember to read it immediately on opening the door (set in further back in so you can see what the real temperature is), though one with the little wire probe is even better, you don't need to open the door which is important. You can often find them for around $10.
In case of power failure, make sure you have enough gas/charcoal to cook everything in your fridge/freezer. Invite your neighbors, I had a coworker do this during bad ice storm in Mississippi several years ago. It will make you popular, and in her case she could still make a claim. And of course make sure you have enough barbecue sauce, you are after all in Texas.
Fill the bath tub full of water. It lets you flush your toilet extra. Same with filling buckets, etc. full of water. Even though it may not be drinkable, there is much to be said for flushing toilets. Other than that, link to some sites with the full checks lists, not having enough oxygen if you need it, or insulin, killed some people around New Orleans and the Mississippi delta. Good luck.
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shawnmmcc
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Oh, and I forgot - if you have to park your car outside, try to park where it won't flood, and somewhere sheltered opposite the side where the worst wind will come from. Definitely do not park it underneath something that can fall, like a tree. Carports can be a mixed blessing, many are not that structurally sound and can end up a liability.
My coworker and I have been watching this, and it did a weird little jog (on the satellite imagery). Ivan did that last year, and Katrina did one too. It's not scientific, but we are convinced it is going to be a bullet, instead of the one that was dodged, so to speak.
Oh, and Mrs. Tuberski - a battery back up and dial-up modem so you can post on Apolyton before your power comes back.
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shawnmmcc
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Last update from the satellite - the outer fringes of Rita (where the clouds are still showing circular motion) extends all the way from the Yucatan to the US Gulf Coast. 
The core area - at least by satellite, extends over half that distance. She is going to be one mean b*tch.
Oh - the forecasters saw that little shift I mentioned earlier, and think she will impact a little further up the Gulf Coast. They keep shifting the impact point closer and closer to Louisiana.
edited to add the newest landfall data
Last edited by shawnmmcc on 22-09-2005 at 14:19
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Richelieu
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Gatineau
Dec 2001
time: 00:37
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This one shows the projected path of the eye with intensity level. It looks to me like its going a little bit to the east of the projected path.
link to NOAA
edit To see the projected path, click the "Trop Fcst Pts" checkmark at the top righthand corner.
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shawnmmcc
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I'm not a hurricane specialist or forecaster, but the NE side of Rita may be weakening as per the forecast. Now weakening may mean simply hitting as a Category 5 instead of the strongest Atlantic Hurricane ever. Except for the little problem that follows two paragraphs down, but read the next one first.
The bad news is, if you overlay the track data on this IR image - similiar to Richelieu's link but it shows intensity better Rita IR loop and check the last box in the legend above the loop - Trop Fcst Pts - you will see that it is veering further east. This is not good - well it is for oil prices, areas hit by Katrina are not producing oil anyway, but New Orleans does NOT need more rain dumped on it.
Plus one other unpleasant picture. I pulled the last ocean surface temperature map before Rita obscured too much of the picture. It seems that if Rita tracks more easterly, the waters off of Louisiana are f*cking hot, compared to Texas. Hot water is NOT a good thing with a monster hurricane. Remember the baselilne for Hurricane's is 80 degrees (thats the minimum for the ocean to give up energy to the hurricane), so figure that as you zero axis for the amount of energy that is available (gross oversimplification but it mostly works). Then look at the Texas Coast, where Rita was supposed to hit, and then look at the temps where it's heading.
http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/show/?file=../regions/gulfmexico/sst_comp/noaa/2005/img/050919.262.comp.lnt.jpg
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Richelieu
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Gatineau
Dec 2001
time: 00:37
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It has definitely moved slightly to the east.
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shawnmmcc
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But the track overlay has been adjusted, so that they now show it coming onland in Texas just west of the Louisiana border. Now look at those water temps. Yech.
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Richelieu
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Gatineau
Dec 2001
time: 00:37
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The way things are going, the whole southern coast of the US will have been hammered by the end of the Hurricane season.
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Brachy-Pride
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On tv they said it had weaken.
I would scape if I lived there, poor people.
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Mrs. Tuberski
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universal city tx
Jan 2005
time: 23:37
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quote:
Originally posted by shawnmmcc
Oh, and I forgot - if you have to park your car outside, try to park where it won't flood, and somewhere sheltered opposite the side where the worst wind will come from. Definitely do not park it underneath something that can fall, like a tree. Carports can be a mixed blessing, many are not that structurally sound and can end up a liability.
My coworker and I have been watching this, and it did a weird little jog (on the satellite imagery). Ivan did that last year, and Katrina did one too. It's not scientific, but we are convinced it is going to be a bullet, instead of the one that was dodged, so to speak.
Oh, and Mrs. Tuberski - a battery back up and dial-up modem so you can post on Apolyton before your power comes back. |
Thanks man that helps I have been hearing the hurricane shifted and most we can expect is long spans of rain. Well we are already having lots of cancellations of activities this weekend. We do have a dial up modem in all of the pcs in the house however the only one that has battery back up is the laptop so we will be good for about 5 hours on the laptop. My sons laptop from school also has a modem and a battery back up. Good thing the hospital that scott works at is only 5 minutes away if need we can venture out and charge the battery on the laptops if power is out or we need imediate shelter . But as they say the storm is sliding dosent mean it cant slide back though.
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22-09-2005 10:43
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