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DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:15
  Old Post 20-10-2001 21:01 Visit DanS's homepage!
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"Names like Video Velvet and Video Silk evoke images of porno productions."

And the problem with this is...?

Just ask Ming how many pictures of models he has in his office. Sex sells! Especially in this demographic. I haven't received an order for a board from a woman yet.

I'm really leaning toward "Digital Silk" or "Visual Silk", unless you guys think that it would be a dreadful mistake. The connotations might be there, but just like the company "Virgin", you make of it what you want to make of it. I want to avoid an overly techie name.

Colon: you convinced me on the "video" versus "visual". I like the verb "Looking" and the noun "Lightning". A future card could have a sound component, so "thunder" is also a good idea. However, the Soundblaster Live has a thunderclap on bootup of your PC, so the sound is already associated with them. Not sure whether that would be a barrier.

Minerva is interesting, but I think that would be a good icon, rather than a name. For the target audience, Minerva won't mean anything. In fact, a good portion of the target audience will be lost at the reference, because they aren't Western. I've already received orders from Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, for instance.

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:15
Post  Old Post 20-10-2001 22:22
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Colon,

"how do you calculate the output gap?"

Well I start off using the OECD's estimates for the output gap at the peak of the last boom (1989-90) and then I use my own estimates of the trend growth rate to take it up to the latest year for which data is available (2000) I then use the average of what my estimates for the output gap was in 2000 and the OECD's estimate.

I used to rely solely on the OECD estimates of output gaps until they said that the trend rate of growth for the US was 4% - implying 3% productivity growth! - which I felt was totally unrealistic.

I have also done a series of forecasts using only my own estimates of the output gap - but I really hope that they are not more accurate than the ones I published above beacuse they say that the recession we are due now will be the worst since the 1930's with the G3's output actually falling by 0.5% in 2002 - something that is hasn't done since WW2 - with output rising by only 1.5% between 2000 and 2003 (that's a total rise not the average!) that's even worse then 1979-82 when output rose by 2.75%.


BTW I have also done some very long-range forecasts for GDP in 2050 for the US, EU, Russia, Japan, China and India - I did offer to post them up but no-one took me up on it, that was on September the 10th though...

Colon is offline Colon
Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
Jan 1970
time: 06:15
  Old Post 20-10-2001 22:33
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True, virgin isn’t associated with sex, but they have Richard Branson and you don’t.
Silk has a connotation with sex to me, but I don’t believe it would be a dreadful mistake and I admit that, on it's own, it’s a nice name. Of the two, Visual Silk and Digital Silk, I prefer the latter because “Digital” counterweights the sexual connotation and sounds more powerful to me.

Regarding Minerva, I don’t believe it really matters whether people know what it means or not. I didn’t know what it meant when I thought of it either (it was the name of an Antwerpian car manufacturer decades ago) and most don't know what "Thales" or "Consignia" mean either. It just has advantage that it sounds nice and that it provides you a story to tell when people ask after the origin of the name. (always nice to tell your Japanese customer you named your company after the Roman goddess of arts )

BTW, how about Eve (Enhanced Visual Engines/Energy),
Eva (Enhanced Visual Applications) or Ave (Advanced Visual Engines/Energy)? You can’t complain about a glut of syllables here.

DanS is offline DanS
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time: 00:15
  Old Post 21-10-2001 00:01 Visit DanS's homepage!
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ef: those September 10 postings probably got caught up in the September 11 storm. I would like to see your 2050 numbers, but I think I've seen some of your 2025 numbers in the past and have a sense on where you stand.

The thing about these numbers that seems to be most variable is immigration. I would love to see the political will there for continued and perhaps even drastically increased immigration, but, as you know, some of that follows the changing political winds. In that respect, September 11 might have a much greater impact on the economy than we give it credit for, one way or another. We'll see how it shakes out. (As an aside, in the past, American society has shown the ability to assimilate up to 2-2.5% per annum immigrants).

My sense is that in the US pre-September 11, there was will across the political spectrum to at least maintain the current high rate of immigration, especially since the majority of immigrants are from Western, but second and third-world societies. It's a quite strong political argument here that we're a land of immigrants and that to deny others a chance to immigrate is somehow unfair. There is a lot of nuance attached, that would take a psychiatrist to figure out, I'm sure. In any event, I absolutely love our population age distribution--nearly flat for the foreseeable future.

I would have thought that Europe and Japan would see the benefits of immigration, but don't know about the political will. From what little I see from this side of the pond, there is almost no political will available in Europe and the face of immigration to the majoriy is riots and other "aggressive" behavior (this might be a misimpression--if so, tell me). In Japan, I see very little hope. In contrast, the general view in the States is that immigrants will work (or need to work) to the bone, and that seems to be widely respected as an excellent net plus to society and the economy.

Colon: what? I'm no Branson? Bite your tongue!

"Digital Silk" it is? What does "Digital Silk" translate into other languages? Does it work well?

Re Eva, I really like it. It reminds me of a girl I met in Prague in '98. She worked for Andersen Consulting, which was nearly working her to death. It was the dead of winter, she was probably pulling 16-hour days, and she looked really tired. She seemed to have a slavic-cum-communism jaded fatalism that was especially touching to me at the time.

Anyway, the pension I was going to stay in shut for the holidays, and we hooked up in a crystal shop, where she was doing last minute gift shopping and I was doing the dumb American "you know anyplace I can stay?" routine to the cashier. I ended up staying with Eva's mom.

Btw, she was really good looking.

Alas, www.eva.com is taken.

edit: digitalsilk.com is also taken. So too visualsilk.com. videosilk.com is still available, though.

Last edited by DanS on 21-10-2001 at 02:33

Roland is offline Roland
Emperor
Auf'm Jahrmarkt :(
May 1999
time: 06:15
  Old Post 22-10-2001 13:16
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EF:

"Maybe you are confusing the activity rate with the employment rate - which is ar 75%. The activity rate also includes the unemployed."

Not confusing anything, I had employment at 72 % and participation at 75/76 %.
Gotta check that. Did you adjust for the 2000 census ?

Dan:

The Japanese decided to have no immigration despite their demographics, IIRC.
As for europe, the EU has about 1 million net immigration per year. At least that's what gets counted. Most people's attitude is neutral I'd say.

But I find it piss funny when the former Vienna chief of the FP rambled against immigrants, while his name was Pavkovic. Sheesh, Austria has been an immigration country for at least 3000 years.

In recent news I saw some surprises.... I didn't know we had about 8000 hindus, 8000 sikhs and (officially) 25.000 chinese/chinese origin here... and we naturalised more Indians than Czechs last year...

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:15
  Old Post 22-10-2001 14:48 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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DanS:

Digital Silk is very sexy.

All this arguing about statistics between Herr Stats (Roland) and Stats Jr. (el Freako) is getting me all hot and bothered.

Roland is offline Roland
Emperor
Auf'm Jahrmarkt :(
May 1999
time: 06:15
  Old Post 22-10-2001 14:52
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"...is getting me all hot..."

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:15
Question  Old Post 22-10-2001 20:01 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Roland: thank you for a rundown of the political realities and the on-ground realities. Of course, I am skeptical that even if the political will is there to crack down on illegal immigration, that it will actually happen.

Re the company name, I'm now leaning for "Video Silk". The connotations aren't that great, but the domain is available. Would this name be a grave mistake?

Roland is offline Roland
Emperor
Auf'm Jahrmarkt :(
May 1999
time: 06:15
  Old Post 22-10-2001 20:18
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Dan:

"Of course, I am skeptical that even if the political will is there to crack down on illegal immigration, that it will actually happen."

Well estimates here are for 100k-200k "submarines" on a population of 8.1 million.
And with ID cards and registration systems, control should be easier here.

But ours wouldn't get counted in a census. Yours would ?

"Re the company name, I'm now leaning for "Video Silk"."

Don't know. I'd really consider some talking abbrev....

Colon is offline Colon
Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
Jan 1970
time: 06:15
  Old Post 22-10-2001 20:49
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EF, how do you know for sure that the output gap is correct if you know that structural productivity rate is disputed and itself hard to discover?
Besides, the structural rate is a long-term rate which doesn’t rule out significant variation from year to year, under the influence of macro-economic policy, crises, confidence and so on.

Dan, I don’t like Video Silk very much, it sounds corny and lame and it makes me think of a video renter.

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:15
  Old Post 23-10-2001 03:44
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Roland,

"Did you adjust for the 2000 census ?"

Aha! that's were we were getting our different figures - no I have not mainly beacuse in the spreadsheet used I wanted a consistant run of yearly data and AFAIK there are no revised estimates of US population for the period 1991-1999 yet.

Colon,

"how do you know for sure that the output gap is correct if you know that structural productivity rate is disputed and itself hard to discover?"

I don't! That's what a 'forecast' means it's just a best guess!

"the structural rate is a long-term rate which doesn’t rule out significant variation from year to year"

Which is why I am far more confident about the averages for the period 2001-2005 than for any single year in them (with the exception of 2001 which is half over anyway).

DanS,

I will post up my 2050 forecasts (with my methods and sources) if I have another person interested as well.

Last edited by el freako on 23-10-2001 at 04:29

Colon is offline Colon
Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
Jan 1970
time: 06:15
  Old Post 23-10-2001 19:12
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”I don't! That's what a 'forecast' means it's just a best guess! “

Well EF, that was exactly my point, so would you please friggin’ stop arguing with me.

Do you know what methods IMF, OECD and other dominant international organisations use to compile their forecasts?

Go ahead and post your 2050 forecasts, we have seen worse spam around here.

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:15
  Old Post 24-10-2001 22:10 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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blah blah

NASDAQ GDP

uSA!

Attachment: pant.jpg
This has been downloaded 40 time(s).

Saras is offline Saras
King
Vilnius, Lithuania
Apr 1999
time: 06:15
  Old Post 24-10-2001 22:48
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Minerva is taken, there's a software firm in UK.

Video silk is SEXY and cool

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:15
Thumbs up  Old Post 24-10-2001 23:29 Visit DanS's homepage!
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We decided to go with something simple and workmanlike, but good...

SDI Silk

The silk forms the brand here, so the name can grow with our product line (if it does grow). Unfortunately, "Digital Silk" just had too many encumberances. SDI Silk is easily remembered in our market space and doesn't suffer from any encumberances.

Our first product is the SDI Silk 100 OEM card.

Thanks for all of the suggestions!

Colon is offline Colon
Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
Jan 1970
time: 06:15
  Old Post 24-10-2001 23:42
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Dan, weren't you a pesticides analyst anyway?

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:15
Thumbs up  Old Post 24-10-2001 23:56 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Yep. Still am. This endeavor should take only a couple of hours an evening to run and will probably never amount to anything more than about 1/2 million dollar/year sales, if it ever even gets to that.

Personally, I am interested in being involved in the development and sale of a PCB. I have thoughts on a couple of petroleum industry automation/remote data collection projects that require a lower degree of sophistication than does this video project.

Colon is offline Colon
Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
Jan 1970
time: 06:15
  Old Post 25-10-2001 00:10
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I must admit I don't have the slightest clue how large the market for this kind of applications could be.

What exactly are you doing in this project?

Please remind what a PCB was again. (in case you told me before)

And last but not least, I like SDI Silk. Were you inspired by that other SDI?

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:15
Thumbs up  Old Post 25-10-2001 00:47 Visit DanS's homepage!
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PCB = Printed Circuit Board.

"And last but not least, I like SDI Silk. Were you inspired by that other SDI?"

Thanks! No, SDI is a term of art. SDI stands for Serial Digital Interface and is a way to transport video (and sometimes audio) from one video device to another. It is mainly used by broadcast TV and video producers, but we're using it for home theater.

"What exactly are you doing in this project?"

I conceived the product in its current configuration, am coding the software support in DScaler, and am selling the card. My partner did most of the hardware engineering.

"I must admit I don't have the slightest clue how large the market for this kind of applications could be."

The software to support this type of board (DScaler) is free and open source and gets about 7,500 downloads a week--the growth in distribution has been geometric and started about a year ago. A similar piece of software gets a ton more downloads, and is still growing geometrically (Virtualdub). The total number of boards that have been sold with this chipset is around 10 million at (let's say) $75/board.

If you figure that this board costs $400 apiece compared to a normal board at $75 apiece, we might be able to get orders on .1% or .2% of those software downloads (i.e., several standard deviations from the mean on a normal distribution curve). Of course, this is just back of the envelope stuff and doesn't even remotely resemble a well put together marketing plan (a pricing curve isn't a normal distribution, after all).

Anyway, all I care to know at this point is that we're seeing sufficient interest. The price isn't proving to be an undue hurdle.

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:15
Thumbs up  Old Post 25-10-2001 13:04 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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DanS,

Actually I'm glad you didn't pick Digital Silk, it sounds soooo 1998. (No offense to whoever thought it up). SDI Silk sounds pretty cuttting edge yet professional.

If you wanted to TOTALLY discredit your product, name it something like, "Green Dragon" or "Blue Gorilla" or something similar to any a number of Roland's .com stock holdings.

Roland is offline Roland
Emperor
Auf'm Jahrmarkt :(
May 1999
time: 06:15
  Old Post 25-10-2001 13:06
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like kingsizeporn.com

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:15
Question  Old Post 25-10-2001 21:25 Visit DanS's homepage!
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I thought that kingsizeporn.com was bought out by... Suffering from ads?

...teenobesenymphos.com?

Another question... Why has the Dollar proven so strong versus the Euro? Everybody's predicting a meltdown, but it hasn't done it yet. Explanations? Lag time?

I would have expected something different, considering that the gov't is printing money like it's going out of style...

Last edited by DanS on 25-10-2001 at 22:12

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:15
Thumbs down  Old Post 26-10-2001 17:34 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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quote:
Only about 75 percent of the nation's industrial capacity is now being used, the lowest level in 18 years, and profits are still falling.



http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/26/b...=1005364800&;en=fa6c03a296ded750&ei=5004&partner=NETZERO

This damn link won't work.

Linking to the New York Times is always impossible.

Last edited by Ted Striker on 26-10-2001 at 18:46

Saras is offline Saras
King
Vilnius, Lithuania
Apr 1999
time: 06:15
  Old Post 26-10-2001 18:38
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=eventual closures, debt restructurings & bankruptcies, trouble at financial institutions due to bad loans and maturity mismatches, rising unemployment & average wages, falling real estate prices, mortgage foreclosures, even more problems at financial institutions...

After this is over, US will be a beautifully deleveraged economy, hopefully having learned a lesson in Macro 101 ...



*runs towards Winkler Bunckersgesellschaft GmbH bunker*

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:15
Thumbs up  Old Post 26-10-2001 19:25 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Today I modified my screen (which contains about 300 stocks right now; mkt cap > $1 b, P/B < 1.4) to account for debt/equity below .2. Nothing interesting shook out of the mix for me (beyond COMS, which I continue to buy on opportunities), but there were a ton of financial services and insurance companies. An enterprising investor who has knowledge of this area could make some good investments.

Saras is offline Saras
King
Vilnius, Lithuania
Apr 1999
time: 06:15
  Old Post 26-10-2001 19:33
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Got spare money?

by .2. you mean 2 or 0.2?

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:15
  Old Post 26-10-2001 19:46 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Actually, there were 30 stocks in my screen (~10%) with debt/equity above 2.0. Only half as many as those in my screen with debt/equity less than 0.2. Such top-flight companies as Level 3 Communications made the > 2.0 grade.

Basically, my less than 0.2 screen was a test to see who had cash lying around and not much debt. There aren't that many!

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
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United States of America
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time: 21:15
Question  Old Post 26-10-2001 20:01 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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PornS,

Any big names with cash on hand?

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:15
Thumbs up  Old Post 26-10-2001 20:14 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Vodafone (VOD) had $20 billion on hand as of 3/30
Cable and Wireless (CWP) had $11 billion on hand as of 3/30
Matsushita (MC) had $10 billion on hand as of 6/30

edit: hey, Matsushita is no longer censored!

Ted Striker is offline Ted Striker
Emperor
United States of America
Jan 1970
time: 21:15
  Old Post 26-10-2001 20:17 Visit Ted Striker's homepage!
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Damn that's alot of cash!

Doesn't look like any US companies in that list...

 
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