07-11-2001 02:16									#1
	Economic analysis of server situation Increase the size of your Attachments

Colon and I were doing a little brainstorming on the economics of the server situation over at FFZ

Here is the basic analysis:

GS should upgrade the server if it makes sense economically. If the costs of providing more server space are lower than the added revenues, they should provide the space.

The revenue that Poly generates for GS is based on advertising. Markos gave some recent figures about the numbers of pageviews we're experiencing, here. If we figure 100,000 page-views per day, then this equates to $200-5000 dollars per day based on Colon's estimate of $2-50 dollars per thousand page views (note this is from the GS perspective...not what Mark and Dan get...since they are not in the hosting/server providing market...yet!) If we figure that GS gets the low end figure, that still equates to $200 per day. If we figure that the server problems are causing us to miss 50% of our possible market (seems reasonable given down-time, OT locking and chat locking and most importantly that new visitors are unlikely to return to a site that's unavailable.) This means that the lost revenue is $100 per day.

I'm not an expert on server costs, but it sounds like the servers used are basically souped up desktops, so let's figure $2000 for a new server.

This pays for itself in 20 days!! I think it's reasonable to expect current hit rates to continue through the rest of November considering the game hasn't hit yet in Europe. Please also note (in case my servers cost numbers are too low) that the lost revenue figures may be conservative. If we tried to boost demand instead of stifling it, we ought to be able to be at triple current page views, at least while Civ is "hot".

of course there are some other options to consider. Are both of the Gamestats servers at capacity? Could capacity be added by shifting associates off the "associate" server and onto the "main" server. What about streamlining Poly content (without reducing demand perhaps by eliminating unused features like the "thread rating" concept). Or reducing other affiliate/GS demands on the servers (only if this can be done without reducing demand.)


The key thing is to act now!! This high useage won't last forever. In fact, GS and Poly may have missed some considerable revenues already. If we "wait until things go back to normal" than all of this analysis will be superceded. Take a look at the economics and act!

Last edited by TCO on 07-11-2001 at 03:07

	07-11-2001 02:29									#2
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Have they tried asking firaxis to sponsor them? Apolyton must be very efficient adverticement for their game.

	07-11-2001 02:33									#3
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

from another thread it looks like the CPU is understrain. Is the server running multiple CPU's do you think?

In any event, NEW CPUs can't be that expensive if they can't afford a new server.

	07-11-2001 02:37									#4
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by Gasmaske from another thread it looks like the CPU is understrain. Is the server running multiple CPU's do you think? In any event, NEW CPUs can't be that expensive if they can't afford a new server.

They are running high-end P3's. To move to fx P4 they would need a new motherboard. Then they would also need new RAM. And then the replaced parts constitutes most of a computer.

	07-11-2001 02:38									#5
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

from another thread it looks like the CPU is understrain. Is the server running multiple CPU's do you think?

In any event, NEW CPUs can't be that expensive if they can't afford a new server.

	07-11-2001 03:33									#6
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

What would another p3 933 cost to buy or lease?

	07-11-2001 03:42									#7
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

You have to ask yourself (if you're GS), should I be in this business at all?

If you decide, yes, then you should think about what projects will make money for you. If I were them, I'd be crunching some numbers (yesterday!) This is their baby. They should be thinking through this.

They also might want to see if they can create the site for MP release. Assuming there will be some sort of subscription service for MP...(Hello! Is there anybody home there? Soemthing like that would be "cha-ching"!)

	07-11-2001 03:58									#8
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

To get a good server through Dell that'd be an improvement over this one, it costs way more than $2000.

I customized one for $5,817.

Specs:
<li>Dual Pentium III 1.26GHz w/ full speed 512KB L2 cache (twice what the current one has)
<li>2GB RAM
<li>2 36GB 10000rpm SCSI Hard Drives
<li>Gigabit ethernet
<li>RedHat Linux 7.1

Last edited by Asher on 07-11-2001 at 04:04

	07-11-2001 04:00									#9
	Increase Your PM Length

$50 cpm? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

thanks GP

	07-11-2001 04:03									#10
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Mark,

If you could unbend yourself to look at my analysis, you'll see that I used a figure of $2 per thousand views!

I think this is on the low end, Colon had some additional info to show that $11-5 per thousand is more reasonable.

	07-11-2001 04:14									#11
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Originally posted by Asher To get a good server through Dell that'd be an improvement over this one, it costs way more than $2000. I customized one for $5,817. Specs: <li>Dual Pentium III 1.26GHz w/ full speed 512KB L2 cache (twice what the current one has) <li>2GB RAM <li>2 36GB 10000rpm SCSI Hard Drives <li>Gigabit ethernet <li>RedHat Linux 7.1

Thanks a lot Asher. Extremely helpful.

1. Would this server be more powerful than a P3 933? What would another P3 933 cost to lease or buy? (less?)

2. I think GS would not be interested in "top of the line" equipment given transitory nature of the demand here. Also, it seems to me another P3 933 would be advantageous in terms of compatibility and quick installation. I would think what you would do is just displace the other hosted sites to the new P3 933, so Poly could have full use of the current machine.

	07-11-2001 04:16									#12
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by MarkG $50 cpm? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA thanks GP

What is the cpm rate that GS receives (not you, but GS for your traffic.)

	07-11-2001 04:17									#13
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quote: Originally posted by GP If you could unbend yourself to look at my analysis, you'll see that I used a figure of $2 per thousand views!

oh, ok, sorry

that's still very high though

	07-11-2001 04:31									#14
	Increase Your PM Length

Mark,

1. Thanks. Appreciate the input. A few more things to think through. MikeH in the FFZ thread said that the rented cost of a server is about $300 per month. Even at very low, CPM this should pay for itself easily. Do the numbers.

2. Also, please realize that the key here is what GS gets for adds, not you. (agreed?)

3. There are some other interesteing things to think through...like how Firaxis could sponsor Poly...especially if tied in with an MP subscription server. (For instance Hasbro subsidizes the National Scrabble Association to the tune of several hundred K.)

	07-11-2001 04:37									#15
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

OTOH Mark could just take out a second mortgage on the Greek Island he bought with the ad revenue and does Dan really need his yacht, "Clickthu"?

	07-11-2001 04:46									#16
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

quote: Originally posted by GP 1. Thanks. Appreciate the input. A few more things to think through. MikeH in the FFZ thread said that the rented cost of a server is about $300 per month. Even at very low, CPM this should pay for itself easily. Do the numbers.

highly doubt it could suit us with our bandwidth numbers

quote: 3. There are some other interesteing things to think through...like how Firaxis could sponsor Poly...

so you really have no problem with us having a direct money relation with firaxis? cool

	07-11-2001 04:57									#17
	Get a bigger avatar today!

There are some ways to structure it. (In all seriousness, Mark.) You could look at the NSA as an example.

	07-11-2001 05:06									#18
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by GP You could look at the NSA as an example.

National Security Agency?

	07-11-2001 05:10									#19
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

National Scrabble Association

Do try to keep up, Dear Markos.

	07-11-2001 05:19									#20
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BTW Markos, all of this discussion is based on your staying with GS. I'm just thinking through the business case that GS would need to decide if they should invest in some temporary capacity.

Last edited by TCO on 07-11-2001 at 05:26

	07-11-2001 06:18									#21
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Hey Mark, if you are making lots of money, would you consider adopting me

	07-11-2001 06:52									#22
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

Maybe this is just one giant conspiracy to get us all to buy t-shirts and mugs 'n' things...

Maybe they're waiting for someone to say: "Hey guys! If we all bought at least one thing from the Apolyton store each - we'd raise thousands and fix this problem!!!"

Nah, didn't think so...

	07-11-2001 06:55									#23
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by MOBIUS Maybe this is just one giant conspiracy to get us all to buy t-shirts and mugs 'n' things...

The thought had crossed my mind

	07-11-2001 06:58									#24
	Remove this text

At the moment, even $2 CPM is pretty high. I'm guessing that you're looking at *maybe* $1 CPM (accounting for Gamestats' share, et cetera).

Let Gamestats decide whether or not they're ready for a new server. Until then, it'll probably be only a few weeks while we ride this out.

	07-11-2001 07:22									#25
	Suffering from ads?

Rev,

1. The added capacity might still pay for itself at 1 CPM. (You have to ask yourself, why be in this business at all if added demand can't be served economically by adding capacity.)

2. The point is that this is the time to hook new users and if you don't take advantage now (if the opportunity is fleeting) that money just flows by you...gone forever.

3. And Rev, we've been discussing things from the GS point of view. What makes you think they couldn't use some prodding to think harder about this?

	07-11-2001 07:27									#26
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

If you want realistic estimates, check out this site. I lurk here a lot. The Making money on the net forum is interesting.

http://www.geekvillage.com/forums/index.php?

	07-11-2001 07:33									#27
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

I'm in there. Where's the good stuff?

	07-11-2001 07:49									#28
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Interesting site.

1. It wouldn't let me register with a yahoo account.

2. Seems like cpm rates are more in the subdollar range (saw .60 and .40 cent estimates.) (not sure if this is what GS gets.)

3. Didn't see any discussion of UGO.

	07-11-2001 07:52									#29
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

quote: Originally posted by rev At the moment, even $2 CPM is pretty high. I'm guessing that you're looking at *maybe* $1 CPM (accounting for Gamestats' share, et cetera).

Just noticed this. Rev, you're making the mistake at looking at this from the Mark/Dan perspective. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about GS revenues.

	07-11-2001 08:05									#30
	Support Apolyton

GP, you have to dig around a bit to find the pearls but they are there.

If you want to post something, read the site rules first - they run it quite strictly.

One of the more interesting contrasts is sites with very high impression rates which don't make any money. Then there are others with the same impression rates that make a lot.