01-02-2002 07:08									#31
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And what of India? In these geopolitical discussions, it's always about China rising, and the European Union gathering together, but I feel that India is a bit overlooked in terms of importance. It's got a lot of people, a good potential brain pool, and some good resources. Plus a strong culture. I suspect, also, that India and the US + West will move closer together as time moves forward...

	01-02-2002 07:56									#32
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quote: Originally posted by 9 ECAC Titles (China, India, Pakistan) + EU + US winding up in the same bind if the US went isolationist and the east Asian powers started to slip back towards being western vassal states.

yeah because india likes pakistan and china soooo much......



russia was a superpower and will be again soon. especially when they become the number one oil exporter soon and get more money from that.

the eu will be a superpower only when they have one commander, a general staff or something. untill then they're just members of an alliance to me.
do you guys have something like that? seperate from nato i mean.

china won't be a superpower for awhile. not untill they get a real navy and airforce. and i imagine they'll have to be a real people's republic not this commy-capitalist stuff they're trying.



my avatar is coooooooooool, by the way

	01-02-2002 08:06									#33
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No....

In order for China to continue being a superpower, it must retain it's current weird mixed-system.
Just look at what happened to Russia. The entire country was propped up by the communist system. When that was gone, so was the economy and power.
And China is significantly more unstable considering it's much less urbanized and has a basically nonexistent middle class.
If China suddenly abandons the dictatorship today it will quite disastrous fall apart. It will be Bulgaria+Romania+Yugoslavia+Russia times ten. (The nicer cases, like Poland, Czech+Slovakia and Hungary, simply are too distant from the current social conditions of China. They are urbanized, industrialized societies.)

A real-live case is Indonesia. For thirty years Indonesia enjoyed relative stability and economic growth under a dictatorship. When Suharto the Dictator fell, so did Indonesia. Today Indonesia is falling apart and the currency (the Rupiah) has inflated by five times.

However, assuming that the communist party continues to hold onto power (which they seemed to be poised at doing), yes China will become the next power. But it's still a long way away... will the communist party survive that long? And besides, who can guarantee that the communist party won't suddenly go insane all over again, as it has done in the past? (and killed 50 million Chinese between 1949 to 1977?!)

Well.... no use speculating. Anything could happen.

	01-02-2002 08:41									#34
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quote: Originally posted by Victor Galis And one case doesn't do very much... try looking at all the wars/conflicts from 1400 to present, like my professor did. Took him about 6 years just to compile the list of wars/conflicts

Why 1400? The international system as we know it didn't come about until 1648.

	01-02-2002 09:42									#35
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I see China or India rising up. However, I don't think they'd eclipse the power of the EU+US, who, even though there is some tension will remain close friends because of (mostly) shared ideals.

	01-02-2002 15:38									#36
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quote: Originally posted by 9 ECAC Titles It's the Czechs. We're just waiting for the right moment.

well, the right moment will be inside EU, I think

	01-02-2002 15:53									#37
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quote: Originally posted by ranskaldan However, assuming that the communist party continues to hold onto power (which they seemed to be poised at doing), yes China will become the next power. But it's still a long way away... will the communist party survive that long? And besides, who can guarantee that the communist party won't suddenly go insane all over again, as it has done in the past? (and killed 50 million Chinese between 1949 to 1977?!)

The Chinese have learned from the mistakes Russia made by going form communist to capitalist in a day. Total anarchy has turned Russia into a deep recession. China is very slowly opening up, and it will take some decades to come to its full economic potential.

The thread of mass murdering regimes is diminishing. It's still possible, but modern day communicationtechnology will bring the rest of the world to attention much quicker. And when that country has some economic importance, the world will react. If not, they're screwed.

	01-02-2002 16:27									#38
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I don't think the British-American alliance will step down as the only true world superpower. When they do, then we can say "It's the end of the world as we know it".

	01-02-2002 17:15									#39
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quote: Originally posted by Drekkus The Chinese have learned from the mistakes Russia made by going form communist to capitalist in a day. Total anarchy has turned Russia into a deep recession. China is very slowly opening up,

However, China has been growing for years strongly and Russia seems that it leaves the crisis, the anarchy backs down...

quote: and it will take some decades to come to its full economic potential.

but...an enormous potential

	01-02-2002 17:24									#40
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quote: Originally posted by Asher Nobody expects the Canadian invasion.

Ssssh. We're not supposed to talk about that.

	01-02-2002 17:38									#41
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How about an alliance of Arab states? They would form a great empire expanding from Marocco to Iraq.

	01-02-2002 18:34									#42
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quote: Originally posted by Kyle That's the major problem. Europe sees their potential rise as a counter-balance/competitor rather than a compliment to the US. That type of thinking will cause future problems. But when it comes to military power, does/will Europe really have the stomach to be a military power?

???

Compliment to US ???

quote: Have a look mum, I'm a big boy now !

1) EU want to be free from US influence, not to be its vassal. Of course, some country in EU are cleary under US influence...
It's logical that you use the right of the stronger on us. But it's our right to accept or to seek another solution. After the WWII, choosing between the influence of the URSS and USA, the choice was simple. But now things are different.

2) It will take time for countries which were opposed by 2 deadky world wars during the last century to unify their army and have total confidence in each other. Have still a different past and different allies.
Our military power is actully oriented for home protection. Just some 'elite' troopers are sent around the world, for "helping" diplomatic relationship.

Rome ne s'est pas faite en un jour!

The problem for europeans is not 'Damned, have we a chance to become a superpower in the futur ?'. The problems is, if we want not to disappear into the shadow of the other superpower we have to succeed our unification. I hope for our childrens we are on the good road. The theory of evolution apply itself to civilizations too.

	01-02-2002 18:46									#43
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quote: Originally posted by Juggler How about an alliance of Arab states? They would form a great empire expanding from Marocco to Iraq.

Even if they somehow unite, it will take them many many many years to make everything work. Not in this century.

	01-02-2002 19:08									#44
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A definition of what "Superpower" means might have been helpful to this discussion at the outset.

My definition is:

A state that has strong conventional and nuclear capabilities and the ability to project those forces to countries beyond their immediate neighbors.


This implies naval power and economic power as well as missles and armies.

	01-02-2002 19:49									#45
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quote: Originally posted by Sikander My definition is: A state that has strong conventional and nuclear capabilities and the ability to project those forces to countries beyond their immediate neighbors.

That isn't a terribly good definition because then the UK and France and a few other countries would also be 'superpowers'.

I don't have any better idea though.

Also, does the term 'superpower' only include military and political power, or is some sort of cultural dominance required?

	01-02-2002 20:40									#46
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quote: Originally posted by Rogan Josh That isn't a terribly good definition because then the UK and France and a few other countries would also be 'superpowers'.

Uk and France can "project those forces to countries beyond their immediate neighbors"

I think they can´t do it.

	01-02-2002 20:41									#47
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quote: I see a tripolar system: US, EU, China emerging. Which is good, because tripolar systems are the most stable empirically.

Are you sure this is good? It looks too 1984 to me...

Oceania (US+UK+Canada+Australia+dependent states of Latin America+dependent states of South Africa)

Eurasia (EU+Russia+Middle East)

Eastasia (China+Japan+Korea+SE Asia+big chunk of central asia)

It looks more probable nowdays than it did in 1949, when 1984 was written...

	01-02-2002 20:49									#48
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quote: Originally posted by Estilpón Uk and France can "project those forces to countries beyond their immediate neighbors" I think they can´t do it.

Of course they can. What about the Falklands War or the war with Iraq? Don't you think they count? For that matter, there were British troops operating in Afghanistan.

	01-02-2002 21:01									#49
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quote: Originally posted by axi Are you sure this is good? It looks too 1984 to me... Oceania (US+UK+Canada+Australia+dependent states of Latin America+dependent states of South Africa) Eurasia (EU+Russia+Middle East) Eastasia (China+Japan+Korea+SE Asia+big chunk of central asia) It looks more probable nowdays than it did in 1949, when 1984 was written...

Nah, the formation of super nations won't happen by geography, but more by similarities in political, economical, and religious systems.

	01-02-2002 21:19									#50
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quote: Originally posted by Estilpón Uk and France can "project those forces to countries beyond their immediate neighbors" I think they can´t do it.

We don't have lot of weapon and troops, but still France have a lot of soldier in Africa by exemple. Not for humanist reason through ...

Our 'Legion Etrangère' is an example of one of our projection forces.

Still nothing comparable with US in quantity.

	01-02-2002 21:29									#51
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quote: Originally posted by ZoboZeWarrior ??? Compliment to US ??? 1) EU want to be free from US influence, not to be its vassal. Of course, some country in EU are cleary under US influence... It's logical that you use the right of the stronger on us. But it's our right to accept or to seek another solution. After the WWII, choosing between the influence of the URSS and USA, the choice was simple. But now things are different. 2) It will take time for countries which were opposed by 2 deadky world wars during the last century to unify their army and have total confidence in each other. Have still a different past and different allies. Our military power is actully oriented for home protection. Just some 'elite' troopers are sent around the world, for "helping" diplomatic relationship. Rome ne s'est pas faite en un jour! The problem for europeans is not 'Damned, have we a chance to become a superpower in the futur ?'. The problems is, if we want not to disappear into the shadow of the other superpower we have to succeed our unification. I hope for our childrens we are on the good road. The theory of evolution apply itself to civilizations too.

I absolutely agree.

We must however ameliorate the the level of information the EU citizens get from the EU institutions.

EU seems distant to many people and that's got to change. Also transparency needs improving as well as democratic accountability of some institutions.

And we must pursue the unification process in a much more aggressive manner.

The economic foundations for the political unification have been layed down! There's no use in delaying or being overcautious.

	01-02-2002 21:50									#52
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> And one case doesn't do very much... try looking at all the wars/conflicts from 1400 to present, like my professor did. Took him about 6 years just to compile the list of wars/conflicts

Read R. Williams Jr.'s (sociology prof emeritus at Cornell and Yale) scholarship on the sociology of war and peace. He studies all of history and essentially arrives at this conclusion: multi-polar balance of power systems are the most stable. You either get The Concert of Europe, or low intensity regional/proxy conflicts. The fewer powers, the more likely that you have interbellum stretches, but the worse the wars themselves become. WWI is the result of a loss of believable balance enforcement at the center of the system -- a reduction in the n-polarity of the system.

If you want another tripolar system, try UK, France, and the Habsburgs. Constant global warfare throughout the late 17th through mid 18th centuries.

Bipolar systems are the least stable. Long periods of bristling stalemate, punctuated by horrendous ideological clashes that mobilize entire populations and feature the greatest degree of demonization of the opposition. (Bipolar struggles always resolve to The Great Satan vs. The Axis of Evil).

For greater stability, up the n in the n-pole system.

Well, I guess there is a balance of sorts in a mono-polar system. Pax Romana, Pax Britannia, Pax Americana. Just do what we say and nobody gets hurt.

Last edited by 9 ECAC Titles on 01-02-2002 at 22:01

	01-02-2002 21:58									#53
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Right !

The unification process is slowned or misguided by local political point of view.

And as people have fcew information about the european system they have not confidence in it. And some politics use these for there own interest ...

Time to use the Guillotine again...

	01-02-2002 22:00									#54
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quote: Originally posted by 9 ECAC Titles He studies all of history and essentially arrives at this conclusion: multi-polar balance of power systems are the most stable, because even situations of more or less constant warfare are restricted to regional conflicts. The fewer powers, the more likely that you have interbellum stretches, but the worse the wars themselves become.

It is a natural sheme : Balance is due to multiple forces directed in all direction with different strenght.

This true from the atom laws to the living laws and the social laws.

	01-02-2002 22:06									#55
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> This true from the atom laws to the living laws and the social laws.

Careful, you are moving into Ernst Haeckel territory.

I prefer to think that even if social systems may appear to mimic natural science patterns, these similarities are accidental and without meaning. At least until we reach Avogadro's Number in base population, let alone number of states.

	01-02-2002 22:20									#56
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Other: Microsoft.

	01-02-2002 22:25									#57
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quote: Originally posted by 9 ECAC Titles > This true from the atom laws to the living laws and the social laws. Careful, you are moving into Ernst Haeckel territory. I prefer to think that even if social systems may appear to mimic natural science patterns, these similarities are accidental and without meaning. At least until we reach Avogadro's Number in base population, let alone number of states.

I've no knoweldge in sociology , but still through (limited of course) observation, I've more and more the 'feeling' that all things on this world obey to the same mathematical shemes.

	01-02-2002 23:03									#58
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quote: Originally posted by Rogan Josh Of course they can. What about the Falklands War or the war with Iraq? Don't you think they count? For that matter, there were British troops operating in Afghanistan.

and...will they operate alone?


Falklands? ahhhh, las islas Malvinas

It's a different question, if some country attacks... the Channel Islands, UK counterattacks, in the same way that if another attacks Sicily for example, Italy counterattacks...


(excuse my poor english )

	01-02-2002 23:09									#59
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Faklants?

Oh Maggie what have we done?

who said that?

	01-02-2002 23:27									#60
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 Faklants? Oh Maggie what have we done? who said that?

well, I don´t know what means Faklants, but Maggie... ¿Tatc***?