01-02-2002 23:31									#61
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I'm sorry Malvinas

It was in a song of Pink Floyd.

Apparently some of the Brits had reservations against what they did.

Most of the world was appauled by it.

But in general Brits are «connected» with realizing foreign suffering. Most of them anyway. Maybe it's all that IRA bombing.

	02-02-2002 01:01									#62
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quote: Originally posted by Estilpón and...will they operate alone?

What has that got to do with it?

Your definition was: "project those forces to countries beyond their immediate neighbors"

They can and have done this in the recent past, therefore your definition is a poor one.

	02-02-2002 12:21									#63
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I did a 50 year forecast for economic growth for the major powers while ago.
Whilst economic power does not automatically translate into millitary power it at least provides the means to get it.

GDP as % of USA for countries with at least 20% of the USA total.

1950:
USA: 100%
USSR: 35%
Britian: 20%

2000:
USA: 100%
EU: 90%
China: 55%
Japan: 35%
India: 25%

2050:
China: 110%
USA: 100%
EU: 80%
India: 75%
Brazil: 25%
Japan: 20%

To make the forecasts I used the change in the working age population between 2000 and 2050 (computed using UN population forecasts) assumed a constant convergence towards a single activity rate (the proportion of people of working age in the workforce) and applied the same rate of 'catch-up' to the US's productivity level that Germany, France, Italy, Britian and Japan had in the period 1938-2000.

	02-02-2002 12:27									#64
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el freako, do you think that China's current growth rates can be maintained, however? I mean look at what happened with the Soviet Union after the high growth of the 40s and 50s. Do you think that the high interferance in the state will lead to a cap where growth can't advance much further? Of course China is shifting to more market based economy, but with the high levels of inteference of the state can we guarantee continued high levels of growth?

	02-02-2002 13:22									#65
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Imran,

A quick look at those figures would show that I don't expect China's growth to continue at the 9-10% that it has managed in the last 20 years.
If it did then instead of China's GDP being slightly bigger than the US's in 2050 it would be 10 times the size!

Here are the Growth figures for 2000-2050:

USA: 2.5%
EU: 1.75% (but the 2050 figure is boosted by new members)
China: 4%
India: 5%
Japan: 1.25%

	02-02-2002 17:50									#66
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quote: Originally posted by Estilpón Falklands? ahhhh, las islas Malvinas

The people of St Malo (France) have a more of a claim to the Falklands than the Argentinians.

quote: Apparently some of the Brits had reservations against what they did.

We had no reservations about liberating a dependency.

	03-02-2002 01:32									#67
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I have to say that many of the choices on the polll are just far out (Lybia? Switzeralnd!?) and some of the more important, though highly unlikely ones, such as Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria, Indonesia were left out.

If economics is the key, then what you need are states that can combine both high amounts of resources and large populations. Whether the resources are avilable internally or by importantion is not that important, but population size is, and so is geography. Tiny states are simply too vulnerable to be superpowers (3 nukes and Israel is gone, while it would take hundreads to take out the US) and states with small populations simply can't have that big internal markets or militaries. So out with Canada and Australia, both of which have small populations, when looking at their size. Remeber that the US is #3 in population and #4 in size.
The next best candidate, no matter what their government is, is China- which would actually be a return to the relative possiton they held in the world until the 18th century (China was the worlds biggest economy as late as 1800).

As for stability, according to Political Scinece thoeries, the less great powers, the more stable, since there is a clear hierarchy of power and thus less possible compatition. The more great powers, the more compatition, the less stability. The reasons we are so unstable now is not that unipolar situattions are unstable but that
1. The US does not engage enough to bring down conflict
2. Power has so diffused through the system that the label superpower is relatively inaccurate, since most of mankind will do as it whishes regardelss of waht the big boys think.

	03-02-2002 01:49									#68
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el freako, I know you didn't put in the 9-10% growth rates, but I think that even 4% would be a bit too much by 2050.

	03-02-2002 02:31									#69
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quote: I personally think the EU,Japan,USA, and Russia will form a global alliance.

Faded - you just wrote, that you belive in the "Empire"?????

Not that I do belive in the StarWars (that is not the hero/rebellion-parts) - but somehow, many things today DO say to me, that SOMETIME the story COULD BE closer to a reality than most of us ever would like to come true.

	03-02-2002 06:00									#70
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Perhaps I am off in my thinking, if so please correct me. Furthermore, I do not intend any insult to anyone with this post, especially Chinese.

China has over one billion people. Thats a lot of bodies to do manual labor, take bullets, and generally act as slaves. China is low-tech. The population is largely peasant farmers and forced laborers in factories. The per capita income is about $700 per year. Chinese industries are not modernized, they are not capable of doing so to a large enough extent.

The fact is, a superpower is both a nation that can project its influence anywhere on the planet, and a nation that can hold power internally. China can project power to large regions, and if they construct a worthwhile blue-water navy, they will be able to do so over a larger area, however, until the internal economy of that nation is restructured, they will never be a superpower.

The annual per capita income in the USSR was close to $10,000, industries in the USSR were modernized, and the internal economy was (for a time) very powerful.

Steele

	03-02-2002 10:46									#71
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quote: Originally posted by steelehc Perhaps I am off in my thinking, if so please correct me. Furthermore, I do not intend any insult to anyone with this post, especially Chinese.

hey! I'm Chinese, and I'm offended.

quote: China has over one billion people. Thats a lot of bodies to do manual labor, take bullets, and generally act as slaves. China is low-tech. The population is largely peasant farmers and forced laborers in factories. The per capita income is about $700 per year. Chinese industries are not modernized, they are not capable of doing so to a large enough extent.

That's a harsh way to put it, but actually you're about right, except for one thing.
http://www.photius.com/wfb1999/rank...r_capita_0.html
the GDP per capita in China is $3600.
(your wording, however, makes it sound like that most of China's populace is shackled and enslaved by a whip-wielding tyranny. oh well, maybe you're right, but i do think that the Western media tends to exaggerate things.)

quote: The fact is, a superpower is both a nation that can project its influence anywhere on the planet, and a nation that can hold power internally. China can project power to large regions, and if they construct a worthwhile blue-water navy, they will be able to do so over a larger area, however, until the internal economy of that nation is restructured, they will never be a superpower.

The internal economy of China is being restructured right now. The economic freedom in China is immense. People seem to assume that if there's no political freedom, there's no economic freedom. Yet the current communist line in China seems to be: make money in whatever weird way you want, just don't insult the government in the process. That is a very good way to induce economy.

	04-02-2002 01:27									#72
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Imran,

That 4% growth rate is based on an assumed average growth in productivity also of 4% (the Chinese workforce is unlikely to grow over the next 50 years compared with an average of 0.5% a year in the US).

This takes China's productivity from 10% of the US level now to 25% in 2050 - that's rate of convergence roughly equivalent to Brazil's over the last half-century - in other words their catch-up in terms of productivity will be as great in the next 50 years as it was in the last 20.

You have to remember that although China is a communist country there are far fewer economic distortions there than in Soviet Russia (for instance I doubt you would find many 'value subtracting' firms there).

Now if China could pull off a Japanese style miracle (Japan raised their productivity from 20% of the US's level in 1950 to 80% in 2000) then they would be untouchable in 2050.

	04-02-2002 01:47									#73
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In fact, I wouldn't even say that China is a "communist country".

Rather, it is a capitalistic dictatorship with socialist leanings.

(wait.... that sounds like Canada!)

But seriously, that makes it comparable to South Korea and Taiwan before the 90's.

	04-02-2002 02:02									#74
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mr Freako, thanks for all your calculations and i know youre right. some other facts that has China as the winner at the end of the 21th century:

1. Chinese (and Japanese) have the highest IQ
2. China has a huge 5th column all over the world; at the same time it is impossible for outsiders to hide in Chinese society
3. Chinese have no compassion, there is no word for it in chinese language, so it will have even less trouble with wars and masskillings than other peoples
4. Chinese are nationalists
5. Their adversaries are morally weak thanks to the moral rot xused by mass media

	04-02-2002 02:48									#75
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quote: Originally posted by WFHermans mr Freako, thanks for all your calculations and i know youre right. some other facts that has China as the winner at the end of the 21th century: 1. Chinese (and Japanese) have the highest IQ 2. China has a huge 5th column all over the world; at the same time it is impossible for outsiders to hide in Chinese society 3. Chinese have no compassion, there is no word for it in chinese language, so it will have even less trouble with wars and masskillings than other peoples 4. Chinese are nationalists 5. Their adversaries are morally weak thanks to the moral rot xused by mass media

ummm.... a troll! and a very offensive one.


1. racial prejudice. and a falsehood, of course.
2. ???????
3. lol! i can, well, think of two words at least to translate "compassion" in Chinese. Tong2qing2 and lian2min3. oh, and how about words similar in meaning like ren2ci2 (kindness), he2ai3 (friendliness), you3ai4 (friendliness again), hao3yi4 (well-meaning).......
oh yes, and give me a race that hasn't been involved in mass killings sometime during its history.
4. lol. And so are the Americans, Arabs, English, Russians, Germans, Spanish and Japanese, I believe.
5. ????????

	04-02-2002 03:01									#76
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quote: Originally posted by ranskaldan 4. lol. And so are the Americans, Arabs, English, Russians, Germans, Spanish and Japanese, I believe.

The English aren't. In general, we are almost as apathetic about our own country as we are about America.

	04-02-2002 03:09									#77
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As IW says, being nationalist is very un-English.

The Welsh and Scottish "national" parties are accepted by society and are very popular, whilst the concept of an English national party doesn't even exist - its considered not to be PC.

The only time the English are patriotic is in sports tournaments.

	04-02-2002 03:15									#78
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quote: Originally posted by Sagacious Dolphin The only time the English are patriotic is in sports tournaments.

Where patriotism involves throwing things at the dirty {insert other nationality here}, in a reactiont to their overawing nationalism

	04-02-2002 12:42									#79
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quote: Originally posted by Sagacious Dolphin As IW says, being nationalist is very un-English.

the people probably thinks british-nationalism. See the euro...

	04-02-2002 18:11									#80
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Look at the history of the countries of the EU. Nearley all have had empires and all have constantley gone to war (Against each other though) So a united EU would be a superpower

	04-02-2002 19:49									#81
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Some time ago there was a census in Britain where among a zillion other questions people had to say what nationality they belonged to. People could answer Pakistan, Scottish, or whatever. One guy wrote "English"...and had to pay a huge fine! (As had the shopkeeper that was using pounds instead of kilos.)

Anyway, start a Manchurian Independence Party in China (as opposed to a Mancunian Independence Party in England) and see how long it takes to be arrested. 5 minutes I reckon.

	04-02-2002 21:08									#82
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nah.... give it a day or two, coz the communist party, you must understand, is very bureaucratically slow.

besides, it would be a bit hard to start such a party, since 90% of Manchuria's population is ethnically Chinese, which is why we don't hear about a Manchurian government-in-exile.

But anyway.... your point being? The communist party likes to suppress opposition groups?

	04-02-2002 21:44									#83
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Yes, and they also have become nationalist. No doubt to increase their own popularity. The communists party of the Soviet Union did the same.
Tibet is another country that had become China-ized and China could even hold a referendum there to ask about independence.

But the same is true for Taiwan where the original population with its own languages has shrunk to some 100,000.

I dont know how China reacts to the Disney invasion that has already conquered Europe. Or do they have their own cartoon family with Pig Mao instead of Donald Duck?

I have never been to China and have no idea what one can buy and say openly.

If you want to pick up a good nationalist Chinese computergame get Romance of the Three Kingdoms, free at www.theunderdogs.org

	04-02-2002 21:56									#84
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quote: Originally posted by WFHermans Yes, and they also have become nationalist. No doubt to increase their own popularity. The communists party of the Soviet Union did the same.

WFHermans: Thanks for the news flash. I some how missed the news that the Communist Party of China is now the Nationalist Party of China. Has Beijing also announced that Chiang Kai-shek is the father of Modern China?

And if you still don't get the joke, and no doubt you don't, the Nationalists are the guys on Taiwan.

	04-02-2002 21:58									#85
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quote: Originally posted by WFHermans Some time ago there was a census in Britain where among a zillion other questions people had to say what nationality they belonged to. People could answer Pakistan, Scottish, or whatever. One guy wrote "English"...and had to pay a huge fine!

Given that you have said nothing that closely resembles the truth, I seriously doubt that this happened. You simply are not a credible source.

	04-02-2002 22:21									#86
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Well, the USA has the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. But their names don't mean that the Republican Party is against democracy or the Democratic Party is against the republic. Same with the Nationalist and Communist Party.
Since long the Communist Party of the People's Republic of China has been on a nationlist course. Although they got a lot of help from stupid US presidents like Carter (who wanted to hand them over Taiwan) and Bush the younger with his unreasonable threats after the spy planes debacle.

	05-02-2002 02:30									#87
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WFHermans:

what exactly are you trying to say???

can you stop making weird claims like:

quote: Chinese have no compassion, there is no word for it in chinese language, so it will have even less trouble with wars and masskillings than other peoples.

quote: Chinese (and Japanese) have the highest IQ

quote: I dont know how China reacts to the Disney invasion that has already conquered Europe. Or do they have their own cartoon family with Pig Mao instead of Donald Duck?

quote: If you want to pick up a good nationalist Chinese computergame get Romance of the Three Kingdoms, free at www.theunderdogs.org

(this game. which i have a copy of, is historical. not. nationalistic.)

quote: Tibet is another country that had become China-ized and China could even hold a referendum there to ask about independence.

???? Tibet is sinicized? Over 90% the population of the Tibetan Autonomous Region is Tibetan.
edit: this has been corrected by Transcend. I take back this point.

and of course:

quote: Some time ago there was a census in Britain where among a zillion other questions people had to say what nationality they belonged to. People could answer Pakistan, Scottish, or whatever. One guy wrote "English"...and had to pay a huge fine!

	05-02-2002 03:44									#88
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quote: Originally posted by Estilpón the people probably thinks british-nationalism. See the euro...

Not even that, the only reason people are against the Euro is because they don't understand/trust the continental Europeans. National pride is not the issue.

	05-02-2002 03:56									#89
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quote: Originally posted by ranskaldan ???? Tibet is sinicized? Over 90% the population of the Tibetan Autonomous Region is Tibetan.

More like 75%. Tibetans are the minority in Lhasa, capital of Tibet. If the current continues, Tibet will be sinicized in a generation.

	05-02-2002 04:09									#90
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ranskaldon, can you stop making weird claims like:

quote: Over 90% the population of the Tibetan Autonomous Region is Tibetan.

Long-term Chinese settlement in Tibet has been deliberately encouraged, with the result that Tibetans are in the minority in many areas. Independent research puts the number of Chinese in the TAR at 5 ­ 5.5 million versus 4.5 million Tibetans; in Kham and Amdo, Chinese outnumber Tibetans many times over. Chinese traders are favoured by lower tax assessments and the dominant position of Chinese in government administration.

Since 1950, an estimated 1.2 million Tibetans have been killed by the Chinese. China has ratified a number of UN conventions, including those related to torture and racial discrimination, and yet has repeatedly violated these in China and Tibet.

http://www.freetibet.org/ if your country allows you to surf there.

thx Transcend for answering this too while I was typing this.