05-02-2002 09:53									#61
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Come on; before they successfully build an ICBM, I am going to fly to the Moon...

	05-02-2002 15:33									#62
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supposedly N. Korea has a medium range missle able to get to the western U.S. Hoover Dam anyone? target? yeah

	05-02-2002 19:46									#63
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 We need to look at concrete and a vast number of statistics to determine the level of (if any) military overstretch of the US at the present. As quick pointers your defence spending is now at 12% of your GDP (whereas Greece's for example is at 6.4% and is already the highest in western Europe) and your internal defence expediture has doubled (although this is understandably not a clear indice since you had almost no need for internal defence before).

source for 12%? IIRC the entire US federal budget is barely 20% of GDP, and most of that is civilian. Dept of Defense budget is about 3-4% of GDP now. You can up the number if you throw in CIA, Coast Guard, etc, but not much.

Internal defence is increasing dramatically, as you point out, but is still much smaller than DOD budget.

LOTM

	05-02-2002 19:52									#64
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quote: Originally posted by Comrade Tribune Iran didnīt attack you, ever. They just want to be left alone. The Bush government obviously intends to use 9/11 as a pretext to attack whomever they want.

Iran just wants to be left alone. Yeah, right.
1. Iranian meddling in post-Taliban Afganistan, sending arms and advisors to warlord Ismail Khan, apparently encouraging him to establish his "emirate" independent of central (Kharzai) govt. Sending arms and agents even into central Afganistan, in Helmand and Orozgun provinces, until chased out by forces of enraged Kandahar governor Shirzai, with US help.
2. Continued support for and close ties with Hezbollah, giving Iran big say in Lebanon politics, and helpig to keep their "ally" Syria in line. Support for Hezbollah attacks on Israel, which have continued even after Israeli withdrawl from Lebanon.
3. Arms boat to Palestine

LOTM

	05-02-2002 20:01									#65
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Say, are those the monitoring devices they use in "Dark Angel"?

	05-02-2002 20:47									#66
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark source for 12%? IIRC the entire US federal budget is barely 20% of GDP, and most of that is civilian. Dept of Defense budget is about 3-4% of GDP now. You can up the number if you throw in CIA, Coast Guard, etc, but not much. Internal defence is increasing dramatically, as you point out, but is still much smaller than DOD budget. LOTM

Yup mea culpa. US defence is at 3% of GDP.

	05-02-2002 20:47									#67
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still defence expenditure has risen by 12%

take a look at that chart:

	05-02-2002 21:00									#68
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Apolyton is damn slow now

see the rise of the curb. US wants Europe to share the burden.

If it's about terrorism it's all well and good. But Europe will propably be resistant to finance the US pursuit of its own interests which the US really does try to mask it under the label Ŧterrorismŧ. It is an assesment of interests.

For example Greece would very reluctantly go along since the US is backing Turkey's claims to the Aegean (or does very little to stop them).

The rest of Europe will also be reluctant since there is a clear difference of interests too. Europe must feel it is also in danger of those the US labels freely as Ŧterroristsŧ or it will be resistant.

If the US keeps pressing and the EU keeps refusing the NATO (between US and EU) cohesion will drop.

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This has been downloaded 57 time(s).

	05-02-2002 23:41									#69
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident supposedly N. Korea has a medium range missle able to get to the western U.S. Hoover Dam anyone? target? yeah

I read an in-depth article on this in the Neue Züricher Zeitung (Conservative Swiss Paper). It takes the North Coreans about 4 days (in full sight of US satellites) to prepare the launch of their med range missile. Talk about sudden surprise attacks!

	05-02-2002 23:48									#70
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark 1. Iranian meddling in post-Taliban Afganistan, sending arms and advisors ...

You mean, the US donīt meddle in post-Taliban Afghanistan, sending arms and advisours?

Ah, yes, I forgot, you have a divine right to do so.

quote: 2. Continued support for and close ties with Hezbollah, giving Iran big say in Lebanon politics, and helpig to keep their "ally" Syria in line. Support for Hezbollah attacks on Israel, which have continued even after Israeli withdrawl from Lebanon.

Wait a moment; since when is Israel a NATO member? And what have they ever done for us?

quote: 3. Arms boat to Palestine

Dito.

	05-02-2002 23:52									#71
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quote: Originally posted by Comrade Tribune Ah, yes, I forgot, you have a divine right to do so.

Close. We have the permission of the internationally recognized government in the region.

quote: Wait a moment; since when is Israel a NATO member? And what have they ever done for us?

Isreal is a Western ally. What does Iran have to offer us that would justify selling them out?

	06-02-2002 00:04									#72
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 We need to look at concrete and a vast number of statistics to determine the level of (if any) military overstretch of the US at the present. As quick pointers your defence spending is now at 12% of your GDP (whereas Greece's for example is at 6.4% and is already the highest in western Europe) and your internal defence expediture has doubled (although this is understandably not a clear indice since you had almost no need for internal defence before).

12% of Federal budget, not GDP, unless there's 7 trillion or so that disappeared.

	06-02-2002 00:08									#73
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat 12% of Federal budget, not GDP, unless there's 7 trillion or so that disappeared.

That would definately be quite a feat, though, considering that we've only maged to loose a few billion here and there so far.

	06-02-2002 00:52									#74
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc We have the permission of the internationally recognized government in the region.

After you have strong-armed the international community into recognizing them. Not convincing. If Iran succeeds in toppling your puppets, perhaps the international community would change its mind again? Remains to be seen.

quote: Isreal is a Western ally. What does Iran have to offer us that would justify selling them out?

What does Israel have to offer us Euros? Iran has oil.

	06-02-2002 01:19									#75
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quote: Originally posted by Comrade Tribune After you have strong-armed the international community into recognizing them.

We didn't need to convince them to recognize Karzai's regime, by all acounts the Euro's did it quite readily and are currently contributing money of thier own volition to help prop his government up and rebuild the war torn country. I'd actually like to see evidence that strong arming, as you so dutifully called it, really took place.

quote: Not convincing.

I don't aim to convince starry eyed dreamers who choose to see every issue through the rose colored glasses of "The US is always wrong" in order to allow themselves to understand complex issues.

quote: What does Israel have to offer us Euros?

Influence in the region. It would really help matters if you would learn from the faliures of the USSR.

	06-02-2002 01:29									#76
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Still totally unconvinced; case closed.

	06-02-2002 01:35									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Comrade Tribune Still totally unconvinced;

As am I. Reading your paranoid lefty fantasies that lack even the bare necessities of facts is quite boring and I'm quite glad that you declared the matter closed if that is all you have to bring to the table.

	06-02-2002 01:44									#78
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OK, Iīll accommodate you once more:

Israel offers:

1- A Bottomless Pit for Western Money
2- Lots of Angry Enemies

Iran offers:

1- Lots of Oil

Iīd prefer having Lots of Oil to having Lots of Enemies and a Bottomless Pit to throw my money into. Whatīs lefty and paranoid about that?

	06-02-2002 03:49									#79
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Iran offers: A schizophrenic and ever shifting internal tug of war between Khamanei and the fundamentalists (including lots of underclass, especially young poor males - people with excess energy, insufficient employment, and little to lose) against Khatami and some 70% of the Iranian electorate - mostly softer, previously westernized middle and upper classes who've learned to adapt to the "revolution" in order to survive.

A deep-seated and mutual distrust and antipathy towards arabs.

A religiously-based schism and desire to expand the influence of a minority Islamic sect.

The potential for a destabilizing degree of military power, which is why all our arab buddies *didn't* want us to finish off Saddam and why they still don't want us to finish off Saddam.

A potential for significant territorial expansion and strategic domination of the gulf if the Hussein government in Iraq collapses and a satellite Shiite revolutionary movement takes hold in the Basra area.

Israel offers: not much, but less overall negatives than Iran.

I think Bush was ****ing stupid to give Khamanei a propaganda coup over Khatami, but the most the US can realistically do in the present Iranian political climate is offer low-key encouragement to Khatami, and take a wait and see attitude.

	06-02-2002 04:07									#80
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat I think Bush was ****ing stupid to give Khamanei a propaganda coup over Khatami, but the most the US can realistically do in the present Iranian political climate is offer low-key encouragement to Khatami, and take a wait and see attitude.

Hey; I agree with that!

One thing, however:

-Iran has just enough problems that they are not, and will not in the foreseeable future, be a problem for anybody outside their region. They may be a problem for Israel, but: So, what?

And one more thing:

-Even if what you say sounds plausible, there is nothing in it that would give anybody a right to attack Iran or force a government change on them. If Saddam fulfills a purpose in keeping things balanced, well, keep Saddam. I didnīt say you shouldnīt.

	06-02-2002 04:31									#81
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"Rights" are such an abstract concept in geopolitics.

I certainly don't want to get rid of their government - Khatami is a good man. The key is to find a way to help him "lose" a few Ayatollahs and their disproportionate constitutional grip on the Iranian government, without getting caught at it.

Anyway. Iran doesn't have to be a problem outside their region since they've got a front row seat in the most critical geographic area for the developed world.

	06-02-2002 05:02									#82
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Anyway. Iran doesn't have to be a problem outside their region since they've got a front row seat in the most critical geographic area for the developed world.

Hey; you minced my words. I didnīt just say Iran isnīt a problem outside its region. I said Iran isnīt a problem for anybody outside its region. Particularly, Iran isnīt a problem for Europe, either directly or indirectly. So I want no (financial or military) part in any action against Iran.

I simply believe we donīt have a problem with them. And they donīt have a problem with us. If they have a problem with the USA, it stems from the time when the CIA removed Mossadegh. Which is entirely understandable. But I think they would let it rest, if the US would.

	07-02-2002 00:36									#83
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quote: Originally posted by Comrade Tribune Hey; I agree with that! One thing, however: -Iran has just enough problems that they are not, and will not in the foreseeable future, be a problem for anybody outside their region. They may be a problem for Israel, but: So, what? And one more thing: -Even if what you say sounds plausible, there is nothing in it that would give anybody a right to attack Iran or force a government change on them. If Saddam fulfills a purpose in keeping things balanced, well, keep Saddam. I didnīt say you shouldnīt.

Its a matter of Iran being a problem for Israel, but of Iran, by its actions, preventing a peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
That is a matter of great concern to the US, as the lack of such a peace weakens the US in the region. Of course the US could avoid that by abandonging Israel, as you desire, but the question of whether Iran is a problem is based on what US policy is likely to realistically do. I was arguing from realistic view of what impacts the US now, not legalistically discussing a casus belli. Whether the US now has a casus belli against Iran is moot, as the US is not now going to war against Iran, and, given the political situation in Iran, is not likely too.

LOTM

	07-02-2002 00:40									#84
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quote: Originally posted by Comrade Tribune Hey; you minced my words. I didnīt just say Iran isnīt a problem outside its region. I said Iran isnīt a problem for anybody outside its region. Particularly, Iran isnīt a problem for Europe, either directly or indirectly. So I want no (financial or military) part in any action against Iran. I simply believe we donīt have a problem with them. And they donīt have a problem with us. If they have a problem with the USA, it stems from the time when the CIA removed Mossadegh. Which is entirely understandable. But I think they would let it rest, if the US would.

which iranians have the problem with the US? 70% of Iranians voted for Khatami, who wanted to improve relations with the US. He was stopped by the Ayatollahs, who decided such moves were "unislamic" The Ayatollahs, IIUC control the judiciary, the police, and the military.

LOTM

	07-02-2002 00:44									#85
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 Apolyton is damn slow now see the rise of the curb. US wants Europe to share the burden. If it's about terrorism it's all well and good. But Europe will propably be resistant to finance the US pursuit of its own interests which the US really does try to mask it under the label Ŧterrorismŧ. It is an assesment of interests. For example Greece would very reluctantly go along since the US is backing Turkey's claims to the Aegean (or does very little to stop them). The rest of Europe will also be reluctant since there is a clear difference of interests too. Europe must feel it is also in danger of those the US labels freely as Ŧterroristsŧ or it will be resistant. If the US keeps pressing and the EU keeps refusing the NATO (between US and EU) cohesion will drop.

Your chart is interesting. I assume the past military expenditures have been converted to the 2001 US Dollar. It seems that the military budget was fairly constant after the end of WW2. But what you fail to mention is that GDP has grown many times since back then, thus the actual US military expenditure as a percentage of GDP has fallen by many times since the 50s.

So much about over-stretching.

	07-02-2002 02:34									#86
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quote: Originally posted by Goingonit This "theory of mine" was pioneered by John Maynard Keynes.

Military spending and breaks for businesses aren't what Keynes proposed...

	07-02-2002 04:26									#87
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quote: Originally posted by Transcend Your chart is interesting. I assume the past military expenditures have been converted to the 2001 US Dollar. It seems that the military budget was fairly constant after the end of WW2. But what you fail to mention is that GDP has grown many times since back then, thus the actual US military expenditure as a percentage of GDP has fallen by many times since the 50s.

this hardly contradicts what I say considering that we are talking about percentage of GDP , wouldn't you say?

	07-02-2002 05:03									#88
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 this hardly contradicts what I say considering that we are talking about percentage of GDP , wouldn't you say?

Didn't you initially claim that the current US military is beginning to overstretch?

	07-02-2002 21:18									#89
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I suspect the cost of the actions in Afghanistan so far has hardly made a dent in overall US spending. Bombs are actually quite cheap.

Re: Iran. Since Iran has got its wish of getting rid of the Taliban at no cost to itself I think US-Iranian relations are going to improve unless the lunatics really do take over the asylum in both countries.

As far as Comrade Tribune is concerned, it is a mistake to assume that what happens in the Middle East is of no concern to us in Europe. Until we find an alternative to oil, we have to be interested. If you play civ3 you will recognise the situation of civs trying to grab the last oil square. The one that ends up with no oil does not last long.

I wonder if CT subscribes to the view, popular in the UK, that ANY anti-American government is OK even if it consists of woman-hating medieval fascists?

By the way, I am a socialist. I just happen to think that religious fundamentalism - whether Muslim, Jewish or Christian - is dangerous and that any nation has the right to defend itself if attacked. As members of NATO European countries are obliged to assist, as the US would have helped had the Soviets invaded.
If we don't like this arrangement we should just get out of NATO.

	07-02-2002 21:35									#90
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quote: Originally posted by Transcend Didn't you initially claim that the current US military is beginning to overstretch?

Nein, I said that it goes to that path and to determine wether this has occured and to what degree we need much more information than we have here and now.

oh and


what you said about GDP being bigger now that it was before has no bearing on what we are talking because we were using %.