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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:17
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quote:
Originally posted by paiktis22
Roman military overstretch  hihihihi anybody knows what that means? 
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yeah ive read paul kennedy ("rise and fall of the great powers")
Overstretch was a real threat to US in the 1980's when we were running huge budget deficits, we were losing international economic competitiveness, we had growing infrastructure problems, and we were maintaining/expanding strategicv commitments. But Reagan (and the rest of us) lucked out, and the USSR, whose overstretch was much worse, collapsed first.
Since then we have reduced defense expenditures as share of GNP dramatically, had over a decade of dramatic economic growth, and improved our political/diplomatic relations in many parts of the globe. The US at the end of the "good years", which ran from November 1989 (fall of Berlin Wall) to 9-11-01 (fall of twin towers) substantially improved its power potential, focusing on a much improved budget and economic picture (relative to 1989)
The war on terrorism presents many challenges, but we do not yet face anything close to overstretch. We have elements of 2 army divisions in afganistan/central asia (101st airborne in the former, 10th mountain in the latter), and some special ops. Marines have left afgan, are now available for elsewhere, such as Somalia or Yemen. 650 special ops in Philipines seems as many as that govt is willing to take. We still have a peacetime deployment in South Korea, and a relaitvely small (by cold war standards) deployment in western europe, and some peacekeepers in Bosnia and Kosovo. This leaves most of US forces at home, some in homeland defense but most available.
And this is with only limited mobilization of reserves, with no prospect of conscription, or even of stepped up military recruiting, which should be easy given current recession. Yes we're going back into deficits, but this is result of recession and Bush tax cuts, and even so are manageable. We certainly appreciate our allies' help, from stepped up roles Bosnia, to Brit/German/Canadian/Aussie roles in Afgan, to NATO AWACS in US homeland defense. But we are not nearly in the position we were in the mid-80's, when every European division mattered
to give us a chance of stopping the Soviets on the central front without nukes.
There is certainly a chance of overstretch, or something approaching it, if we were to go after Iraq AND Iran AND North Korea while still dealing with Al qaeeda in Afgan and elsewhere, which would also lose us most allied support. However Powell and Rumsfield and Rice are not stupid (whatever you think of their
boss) and they seem determined to take things sequentially. They have no intention of taking on N. Korea, that was included in the Bush speech for political correctness, to avoid only naming Muslim countries. Iran IS a real problem, but there is political ferment there, and our strategy is play into that, establish a successful pro-wetern regime in Afganistan, maybe later in Iraq, as models for Iran. Only real chance of expanding war beyond al qaeeda is Iraq, and tha wont be for a while, until we have A. gotten further along in war on Al Qaeeda B. Built up Iraqi National Congress into more credible opposition C. Lacunched diplomatic offensive for renewed inspections, "smart" sanctions D. Resolved issues with Turkey, Saudi about future shape of Iraq, assuring them that role for Kurds and Shiites in new govt wont lead to independence for either group.
LOTM
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Bereta_Eder
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We need to look at concrete and a vast number of statistics to determine the level of (if any) military overstretch of the US at the present.
As quick pointers your defence spending is now at 12% of your GDP (whereas Greece's for example is at 6.4% and is already the highest in western Europe) and your internal defence expediture has doubled (although this is understandably not a clear indice since you had almost no need for internal defence before).
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Pembleton
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Cyberspace
Apr 1999
time: 23:17
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quote:
Originally posted by lord of the mark
yeah ive read paul kennedy ("rise and fall of the great powers")
Overstretch was a real threat to US in the 1980's when we were running huge budget deficits, we were losing international economic competitiveness, we had growing infrastructure problems, and we were maintaining/expanding strategicv commitments. But Reagan (and the rest of us) lucked out, and the USSR, whose overstretch was much worse, collapsed first.
LOTM |
Don't mean to set aside such a lengthy analysis but to me it's just so simple: geography.
All other superpowers have never had the benefit of being as isolated and relatively independent. We are still dependent on oil, but it is a temporary and unnecessary source of energy and the U.S. and other nations *will* find other sources for the future when oil starts to run out.
Who do have as our neighbors? Canada and Mexico. That's it.
Britain and Japan are also fortunate to have their geographical isolation, but they are/were too small (area and population) to sustain long-term independence as a superpower.
And also, I don't think it was a matter of luck as it was the inevitable economic failure of communism/socialist or however you want to define their form of government. China is fortunate in that they are learning from those mistakes and allowing a gradual capitalization of their economy.
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Bereta_Eder
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Also if you read Robertson's latest statements it becomes apparent that the US feveresly wants Europe to start building up its military or it will cease to have the power to influence US politics.
Although this is a laughable statement and very crude it underlines the need of the US for up to standards «military companions» in order to avoi future problems of a(very) potential military overstretch.
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WhiteElephants
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Toledo Ohio
Mar 2000
time: 00:17
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quote:
The Minus Group is supposed to be some sort of ultra-secret ready-deployment team. They were kind of vague about what it is that they do, other than they kept talking about "state security" and the security of the state in the event of a crisis. It makes you wonder about the "security" of whose "state." |
Gee, kinda vauge... Who does this remind me of?
quote:
The Friendly Colonel added that the announcer this week was a German officer who was dressed in the uniform of an American National Guard. He was parading around in an Alabama State National Guard uniform. Yet he was an officer of the German Army. He spoke very little English, so that nobody could understand what he was saying, except the other German guys who were there. He has said that you never know who anyone is. You see Russian guys wearing Israeli uniforms. You see Israelis wearing German uniforms. Everyone is wearing uniforms other than from their own country. |
 
quote:
The Chinese guy that spilled the marinara sauce bought a quantity of these satellite-transmitting, exploding, wristwatch hockey puck devices. It doesn't have an exact name. It has some sort of designated code. It's like the **** Tracy Watch of the 21st Century. |
quote:
"It's called U-Pack-It," he told him. The Chinese guy then turned around and said, "oynga magouynga chopsuey fooey louey Upackit Upackit." And the other Chinese guys said, "Ah so. U pack it U pack it." They sounded like a bunch of parakeets "U packit U packit." So the Friendly Colonel's going to do business with them. |
quote:
CNN stated that the vehicle was recently revealed at an army symposium. This vehicle is evidently built by Ford. The Army calls it an "urban assault or urban warfare vehicle," to be used in urban areas "to fight terrorism" or "to suppress any domestic uprisings."
The vehicle has many high tech devices. It is armor plated and among its weapons is a laser cannon.
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Laser Cannon!
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Goingonit
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Toronto, Canada - AECCP member
Apr 2001
time: 00:17
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quote:
Originally posted by Comrade Tribune
How long ago was this? 15 years? 20? Do you want to bombard Mexico next, because of the Mexican-American War? Remember the Alamo? |
Well, I'd still call you on it if you said, "The Americans have never fought the Mexicans!"
I'm not saying that they are out to get you, but if they're a peace-loving liberal democracy, I'm the King of f***ing England. Next, you'll think that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is the world's best country to live in, because it has the words "democratic", "people's", and "republic" in its name.
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04-02-2002 05:44
) so the US can delegate some matters to the EU and take some of the burden off its back.
I wonder when types like this Wolkowski or whatever his name is will start asking us to 'share the financial burden' of whatever Bush´s next military adventure is going to be. I don´t want to pay for the US destroying our trading partners in Iran. 
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