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Apolyton Civilization Forums : Powered by vBulletin version 2.0.3 Apolyton Civilization Forums > Miscellaneous > Archive > Off-Topic-Archive > GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 11
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TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-05-2002 07:12
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quote:
Originally posted by Colon
GP, I was particularly thinking about spin-offs in which a division is floated on the stock market or sold to private-equity firms.
It seems to me that financially troubled corps selling of a loss-making bit are actually outsourcing the work of fixing its profitability, pointing to a weak or unimaginative management.


Yes, that is certainly sometimes the case. Another way to think of it is like Sten said. (Differences in expertise.) Management (in some cases very candidly) will say we don't know how to run this business best.* Somebody else will do it better. A good example is a cash business that needs some drastic layoffs, etc. to be most profitable. It may be easier to give that problem to an LBO firm, than to fix it within the conglomerate.

It's not always the crappy parts of companies that are sold off, though. Sometimes it is the nice pieces. American Ski Corporation is hovering near bankruptcy. They just sold their crown jewel, Heavenly resort in California. The reason was that they needed some serious cash...and only the crown jewel would bring in enough... You will often see spinoffs of attractive businesses which were grown out of R/D or out of core businesses, but which can (now) stand on their own legs. Some companies will be pretty up front, even with middle management, that a new business unit is being "grown to spin".

Traditionally, there was some stigma associated with becoming smaller and this was much behind a lot of the conglomerate rage in the 70's. But lately the fashion has been more towards focus. It's not a perfect trend and it's not by any means settled.** It probably hit a little earlier and deeper in the US than in Europe and in Europe than in Asia.

*Or they may say, we can concentrate our efforts more towards the core business and grow it better. Really, the key thing is what is worth more, disseperate pieces, or a conglomerate.

**For each individual circumstance, you have to look at the particulars to make a decision on divestitures.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-05-2002 07:33
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quote:
Originally posted by Sten Sture
or busy, or lacking specialty expertise, or lacking the necessary time horizon.... From a consultancy standpoint I would assume that GP will say there are an almost infinite number of solutions to address a business deficiency.

GP - Morton Salt?


Sten,

A. Agreed on the different "spins" of management expertise.

B. There are probably a near infinite set of deficiencies and solutions. But from a top management perspective, you should put together a clear framework to help bring order to the universe of choices. That was always the way I was taught to look at problems. Attempt to categorize things, so that you can more easily troubleshoot and explain proposed solutions.

In light of our discussion, here, we might say that for a troubled business unit, the options are three-fold:*

1. Major turn-around effort.

2. Divestiture

3. Continue to operate "normally"

Underneath each of these there are other various options. For instance under divestiture, you might have spin-out, MBO, sale to competitor. Under spin-out, you might have partial or full spin. Rather than have a global framework for addressing all troubled companies, it would be better to construct this framework (or at least refine it) for a given engagement, since the best categorization scheme would vary from case to case.

C. Don't remember much about Morton Salt. Seem to remember when I was still in grad school, hearing that it go bought. By Rohm and Haas? What are you alluding to?


*This is a magic number. It's always good if your thought heirarchy is organized into groups of 3. Sorry being cute...but they really do love the number 3.

Last edited by TCO on 21-05-2002 at 07:38

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 21-05-2002 07:37
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Colon, a good framework for assessing some of these decisions on portfolio re-alignment is the "pentagon" (no Satan jokes please) in the second edition of Valuation by Tom Copeland, et. al. Essentially what you are doing is looking at your company the way a raider would do so...

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 01-06-2002 09:11 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Does anybody here know of an accessible comparative look at the components of GDP. For instance, the US produces x% food, y% energy, z% autos. Same for Germany, etc.

I'm especially interested in seeing a proportional services breakdown, if it is available.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 01-06-2002 10:56
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Got spare money?

Anybody know a good board where people talk about finace/econ/business at a high level?

moomin is offline moomin
King
Moo Like In Moomin
Jul 2000
time: 05:18
  Old Post 01-06-2002 15:56
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What, the Motley Fool dosn't do it for ya anymore, GP?

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 01-06-2002 22:01
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haha

looking for something that is more MBA oriented than individual investor oriented.

pchang is offline pchang
King
Cupertino?
Aug 1999
time: 05:18
  Old Post 02-06-2002 01:28
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quote:
Originally posted by GP
Anybody know a good board where people talk about finace/econ/business at a high level?


I thought this was it

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 02-06-2002 04:11
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want some more action...

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:18
  Old Post 02-06-2002 17:23
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What's happened to america's jobs machine? Remove this text

I've been looking more closely at the data for employment and unemployment in the US and EU.

US unemployment has risen from a low of 3.9% in mid 2000 to 6.0% now - historically a small rise for a recession.
The EU, by contrast, has seen a small fall in unemployment during that period from 8.2% to 7.6%

However something weird has been going on in the US job market over the last 3 years - namely the first large fall in the activity rate (proportion of the working age population that is either working or looking for work) which has greatly mitigated the rise in unemployment.

In the 1979-82 recession activity rose from 70.5% to 71.4%
During the 1990-92 recession it was pretty static going from 76.3% to 76.1%
But since 1999 when it was 75.7% it has fallen to 74.3% now.

Conversely the EU has seen it's largest rise in activity for a generation.

During 1979-85 it fell from 67.8% to 66.5%
During 1990-95 it fell from 68.0% to 67.5%
During 1999-02 it rose from 69.2% to 70.2%

Indeed if activity rates had stayed where they were 5 years ago in 1997 (when US unemployment was 4.9% and the EU's 10.6%) then their current unemployment rates would be 8.3% for the US and 5.0% for the EU!

It seems that the US economy has become more 'european' with faster productivity growth but slower employment growth whilst the EU has moved towards the US with the opposite effect.

moomin is offline moomin
King
Moo Like In Moomin
Jul 2000
time: 05:18
  Old Post 02-06-2002 21:24
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quote:
Originally posted by GP
looking for something that is more MBA oriented than individual investor oriented.


Hey, if all those glowing speaches about how this or that CEO really thinks it's woth sacrificing his kids and selling his mother over shareholder value are true, the best MBA orientation you ever gonna get is the investor point of view

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 02-06-2002 21:37
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quote:
Originally posted by moominparatrooper


Hey, if all those glowing speaches about how this or that CEO really thinks it's woth sacrificing his kids and selling his mother over shareholder value are true,


no reaction

quote:
the best MBA orientation you ever gonna get is the investor point of view


Individual investor point of view can be interesting. Much of the press is pretty vapid, though. I'm more interested in the actors than the audience...

Colon is offline Colon
Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
Jan 1970
time: 06:18
  Old Post 03-06-2002 02:50
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Dan, what you describe is the production approach towards the components of GDP (aka gross-value added by industry), rather than the expenditures approach. I think you’ll have to do some digging if you want to compare them and the classification is not always the same or as detailed. (if it’s available at all) I don’t think many offer a breakdown as detailed as that of the BEA for instance.

I’ll give a couple of link to national offices from the biggest economies that release GDP data to get you started

http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat/...alogue=Eurostat (eurostat - EU)
http://www.destatis.de/ (Germany)
http://www.istat.it/homeing.html (Italy)
http://www.insee.fr/en/home/home_page.asp (France)
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/index.htm (Japan)
http://www.statistics.gov.uk (UK)

Adam Smith is offline Adam Smith
King
Maryland, USA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 26-06-2002 23:17
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Sten's research department said 9000 was bottom. Looks like we just arrived. Where are the buyers? (Or where is Sten's research department? )

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 26-06-2002 23:25
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They said 9000 was bottom or was fair value? Not differentiating the two is part of the problem...

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 26-06-2002 23:27 Visit DanS's homepage!
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This was a timely bump, AS. But I thought it was 850-900 for the S&P at the time...

Colon: Thanks for the links. Looks like a hit and miss proposition. This question was brought up by some press reports stating that about 18% of the Japanese economy was devoted to construction ( ), while only 9% of the American economy was devoted to this.

Given this, I wanted a better feel for the composition of the GDP numbers...

Roland is offline Roland
Emperor
Auf'm Jahrmarkt :(
May 1999
time: 06:18
  Old Post 27-06-2002 12:11
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Didn't you know that the japanese government loves building bridges to nowhere ?

Saras is offline Saras
King
Vilnius, Lithuania
Apr 1999
time: 06:18
  Old Post 27-06-2002 12:53
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quote:
Originally posted by Roland
Didn't you know that the japanese government loves building bridges to nowhere ?


It's cultural, no? Like Seppuku, ikebana, origami and bushido

Roland is offline Roland
Emperor
Auf'm Jahrmarkt :(
May 1999
time: 06:18
  Old Post 27-06-2002 13:23
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Indeed. Bridges to nowhere are to the japanese what funny accounting is to americans. Part of the national identity.

Wraith is offline Wraith
King
Austin, Texas, USA
Aug 1999
time: 23:18
  Old Post 27-06-2002 17:40
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--"This question was brought up by some press reports stating that about 18% of the Japanese economy was devoted to construction"

The Japanese government is, for some reason, convinced that construction projects are the way to end their rather lengthy recession. That it hasn't worked yet does nothing to stop them from trying, like most government projects.

Wraith
"Wherefore being all of one mind, we do highly resolve that government of the grafted by the grafter for the grafter shall not perish from the earth."
-- Abraham Lincoln as told by Mark Twain

Roland is offline Roland
Emperor
Auf'm Jahrmarkt :(
May 1999
time: 06:18
  Old Post 27-06-2002 17:57
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Construction carries that myth. See US housing.

Colon is offline Colon
Emperor
Antwerp, Colon's Chocolate Canard Country
Jan 1970
time: 06:18
  Old Post 27-06-2002 19:10
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Or the Hoover dam.

Saras is offline Saras
King
Vilnius, Lithuania
Apr 1999
time: 06:18
  Old Post 27-06-2002 20:07
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quote:
Originally posted by Colon
Or the Hoover dam.


or the Battlefield Medicine

(it is a Civ board, after all )

Adam Smith is offline Adam Smith
King
Maryland, USA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 27-06-2002 21:48
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quote:
Originally posted by Roland
Didn't you know that the japanese government loves building bridges to nowhere ?
Just south of Baltimore there is a big unfinished highway intersection with a sign saying "FUTURE" and an arrow pointing off to the right. Always wanted to take that exit......

Saras is offline Saras
King
Vilnius, Lithuania
Apr 1999
time: 06:18
  Old Post 28-06-2002 11:23
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bump

And now for some conspiracy theory:

Doesn't it seem odd that as soon as there are credible risks to the whole circle of beliefs crashing down there suddenly appear "positive" macro stats, stocks rally like there was no Enron/WC etc?

I mean, isn't there a Zurich Gnome plunge protection team ((C) Roland) ?

Roland is offline Roland
Emperor
Auf'm Jahrmarkt :(
May 1999
time: 06:18
  Old Post 28-06-2002 12:32
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Maybe it was the PPT. But more likely it's some silly bulls with borrowed cash to burn.

I like bulls. They're bear market fuel.

Adam Smith is offline Adam Smith
King
Maryland, USA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 28-06-2002 17:55
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So speaks the uberbear

Roland is offline Roland
Emperor
Auf'm Jahrmarkt :(
May 1999
time: 06:18
  Old Post 28-06-2002 18:00
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Amen.

Dauphin is offline Dauphin
Emperor
Caught in a tuna net
Jan 1970
time: 05:18
  Old Post 29-06-2002 00:29
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Drunken ramblings Suffering from ads?

Apologies if this has been posted already but EBITDA reminded me of the mnemonic I heard today:


Earnings before I trick (the) dumb auditor.


GP, don't say I never contreibute to these damned threads.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:18
  Old Post 29-06-2002 02:23
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One line in the next day, WSJ said something to the effect of "This shows the bad points of using EBITDA as a valuation metric. Maybe we should use free cash flow." Well...DUH!!!

 
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