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Bird
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South Orange, New Jersey
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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Defensive quiz.
You are East and you and your partner will pass throughout. North opens and the auction goes as follows:
1C-1S
2C-2D
3C-3N
Playing standard (4th best) leads, your partner leads the 3 of Hearts. Dummy hits with the following:
S: Ax
H: J9x
D: J9
C: KJ7xxx
Your hand is:
S: KQx
H: A84
D: Q8x
C: Q8xx
This will be a developing quiz. First things first. What do you know about declarer's hand, assuming the opponents are playing something close to Standard American?
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TCO
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Richmond, VA
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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Ola!
hmmm...developing answer. I'm not disciplined enough to think this way when playing but I'll give it a shot.
1. You know that opp has 13+ hcp because of how he bid up inot game over North's minimum responses.
2. Since you have 13 hcp and dummy has 10, declarer max points is 40-23 = 17 hcp. If your partner has at least one honor in hearts (K or Q, implied by the 4th best lead) than declarer has 14 or 15 hcp.
3. From the cards on table, there are 8 sp, 7 h, 8 d and 3 c to divide among partner and declarer.
4. From the bidding, opp has at least 4 sp and 4 d (he bid those suits.) He has less than 4 h. And a max of 3c. My best guess: something like 4-3-4-2 (sp-h-d-c). There's probably further I could go here...but I'm not sure.
5. from the point count, opp has almost all the non-showing honors. Partner can't have more than 4 points. And probably just has the Q or K of hearts.
So maybe somthing like this:
sp Jxxx
h K (or Q)xx
d AKxx
c Ax
Last edited by TCO on 30-05-2002 at 02:32
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Bird
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South Orange, New Jersey
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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That's pretty damn good for someone who just learned the game. I know people who've played for years and still don't think that way.
1. Right. Aggressive opponents might show up with 12 HCP, but in that case, unless declarer has all three missing clubs or has distorted the bidding in a big way, there is no way in hell he can make the contract.
2. This is mostly right also. The "mostly" is partly a matter of partnership style. Partner might have led from 10xxx, in which case he probably has a diamond honor, or perhaps the Ace of clubs. (There's no law against leading low from Kxx or Qxx, but on this auction I think that's unlikely.) All in all, it's not unreasonable to think that partner has an honor somewhere because declarer didn't make a slam try.
3. Right, moving on to .......
4. Assuming Standard American (5 card majors) and even Prehistoric (Goren) methods, you can refine this even further, and your second post is on target in that regard. Partner is indeed marked with 4 hearts, leaving declarer with 3. So why did declarer bid diamonds?
5. We've already agreed with this (see no. 2).
More to follow after you answer the question in number 4.
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TCO
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Richmond, VA
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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This is going to be a Socratic dialog. (I.e. you are going to have to pull teeth to get me to think it all through!)
I still use "Standard American" to describe (my) prehistoric style since that is what G calls it in the 1973 edition that I have of his. But I agree that everybody uses it to mean 5cm.
I'm a little unclear regarding the 4th best comment. Am I supposed to take that as an extra given? In a real game, he might lead even just from xxx, no? I mean he's got a pretty crappy hand. And that is the unbid suit. So why not lead to me in the hopes that, that suit is the one we need to develop? Scratch that thought. If he was xxx, he would have led from the top. So...he's either 10xxx, Kxxx, or Qxxx. (My natural instinct was to place him with one of the honors...cause I think we need to have that to defeat the contract...but I haven't really thought that part through.) In any case, if I assume opp are playing 4 card majors, that means opp doesn't have a 4 c heart suti cause he nver showed it.
Point taken on "why would he bid diamonds". With the balanced hand I showed, he would go right to nt rather than show that 4c d suit. So the hand must be more unbalanced. I guess we need to move some club(s) and/or h into the diamond suit. You could move a heart over to clubs, leaving him with Qx? Would that unbalance the hand enough to let him bid diamonds rather than nt? Since it is new suti forcing. just don't know here.
He never rebid the sp so they are definintely 4 deep.
I gues another arrangement might be
4sp
2h
5d
2c
Or should it be even more unbalenced?
4sp
2h
6d
1c?
not sure if he wouldn't rebid the diamonds than..
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Bird
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South Orange, New Jersey
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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First of all, I was sloppy with the hand layout. I meant to make dummy J92 of hearts so it was clear the heart 3 was not from a 5 card suit. That would clarify that the heart lead was not from a 5 card suit (unless partner is trying to be deceptive, which makes little sense given his bust), thus my earlier comments about leading from Qxx or Kxx. Mea culpa.
Your thoughts are right given the lack of clarity. And I agree that with partner's obviously crappy hand he might very well lead xxx in an unbid suit to try to reach my strength, but in that case he would probably lead the top or middle card, certainly not the lowest card. So you're on target there too.
For purposes of this exercise, assume the opponents are playing 5 card majors. Most people in the states do (although I don't with my regular partners) and it's important to understand the inferences from their auctions. In this case, however, I doubt the auction would have been different regardless of system.
With that understanding, what inferences can you draw from declarer's diamond bid? You are absolutely correct that declarer has some sort of "shape", and now you know he has 3 hearts.
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Bird
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South Orange, New Jersey
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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Ok, I think the right concepts have filtered through the analyses. UR is right that declarer should not have longer diamonds than spades, and on this auction he probably does not have 5 diamonds. GP -- whether playing 4 or 5 card majors, neither opener nor responder should feel obliged to automatically rebid a 5 card suit. Here, for example, if declarer has 5-3-4-1 shape, he certainly shouldn't rebid spades if for no other reason than it's a crappy five card suit.
There are two schools of thought on responding. One approach is to describe your shape by bidding up the line regardless of strength. In other words, if partner opens 1C, bid 1D any time you have 4 diamonds and no major with greater length. The other approach is to bypass the diamond suit and bid the major first whenever you don't have game forcing values. There are implications of the latter approach that can be discussed another day. In this case, b/c declarer obviously had game forcing values, I don't believe it is likely he would bypass a 5 card diamond suit to bid a 4 card (crappy) spade suit. (As an aside, IMO the most important reason to accurately bid your shape when you have game forcing values is that it makes slam bidding much easier.)
In "modern" standard bidding, a new minor suit (like the 2D bid here) is 100% forcing and does not necessarily promise diamonds. Responder would, for example, probably bid 2D with 5-3-3-2, 5-4-2-2, or 5-3-4-1 (plus others not relevant here). This allows the partnership to find their 5-3 spade fit or even a 4-4 heart fit in cases where responder might want to bid a non-forcing 2H with 5-4 shape in the majors. Playing 4 card majors, the 2D bid is also forcing, but denies 4 hearts. Taking into account the comments above, plus GP's on-target observations about the delayed NT bid, it is extremely likely declarer has 5 spades. (He won't have 6 b/c he would have bid differently.) Best guess, then, is that he's 5-3 in the majors.
Now think about the likely minor suit distribution. Could declarer have 2 diamonds and 3 clubs? Possibly, but then partner has 6 diamonds and might have led one, plus declarer might have opted to raise clubs rather than bid NT (no guarantees here, of course). I'd be inclined to expect declarer to have at least 3 diamonds, and maybe 4. If he has 3 diamonds, partner has 5 and the lead then suggests that partner must have a heart honor b/c with a worthless 5 card diamond suit and a worthless 4 card heart suit, partner has no reason not to lead a diamond on this auction. In this auction, partner certainly should not lead from a worthless 4 card heart suit if he has 5 diamonds to an honor.
UR: it is indeed a very borderline opening hand, but it's a brave new world out there and people are very aggressive nowadays. Most people would not open the hand, but for those that do, I think the bidding is right. Opener just keeps sending "slow down" messages by rebidding clubs. Obviously, if you're going to open these kinds of hands, your partner needs to take that possibility into account when bidding.
Ok, enough about the bidding. How do we beat this hand? Partner leads the 3 of Hearts and declarer plays the 9 from dummy. Things certainly look promising for your side. You're up.
Edit: let's simplify this a little. Assume partner isn't torturing you by leading from 10xxx and that he therefore has a heart honor.
Last edited by Bird on 30-05-2002 at 17:15
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TCO
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Richmond, VA
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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quote: Originally posted by Bird
Ok, I think the right concepts have filtered through the analyses. UR is right that declarer should not have longer diamonds than spades, and on this auction he probably does not have 5 diamonds. GP -- whether playing 4 or 5 card majors, neither opener nor responder should feel obliged to automatically rebid a 5 card suit. Here, for example, if declarer has 5-3-4-1 shape, he certainly shouldn't rebid spades if for no other reason than it's a crappy five card suit.
There are two schools of thought on responding. One approach is to describe your shape by bidding up the line regardless of strength. In other words, if partner opens 1C, bid 1D any time you have 4 diamonds and no major with greater length. The other approach is to bypass the diamond suit and bid the major first whenever you don't have game forcing values. There are implications of the latter approach that can be discussed another day. In this case, b/c declarer obviously had game forcing values, I don't believe it is likely he would bypass a 5 card diamond suit to bid a 4 card (crappy) spade suit. (As an aside, IMO the most important reason to accurately bid your shape when you have game forcing values is that it makes slam bidding much easier.)
In "modern" standard bidding, a new minor suit (like the 2D bid here) is 100% forcing and does not necessarily promise diamonds. Responder would, for example, probably bid 2D with 5-3-3-2, 5-4-2-2, or 5-3-4-1 (plus others not relevant here). This allows the partnership to find their 5-3 spade fit or even a 4-4 heart fit in cases where responder might want to bid a non-forcing 2H with 5-4 shape in the majors. Playing 4 card majors, the 2D bid is also forcing, but denies 4 hearts. Taking into account the comments above, plus GP's on-target observations about the delayed NT bid, it is extremely likely declarer has 5 spades. (He won't have 6 b/c he would have bid differently.) Best guess, then, is that he's 5-3 in the majors.
Now think about the likely minor suit distribution. Could declarer have 2 diamonds and 3 clubs? Possibly, but then partner has 6 diamonds and might have led one, plus declarer might have opted to raise clubs rather than bid NT (no guarantees here, of course). I'd be inclined to expect declarer to have at least 3 diamonds, and maybe 4. If he has 3 diamonds, partner has 5 and the lead then suggests that partner must have a heart honor b/c with a worthless 5 card diamond suit and a worthless 4 card heart suit, partner has no reason not to lead a diamond on this auction. In this auction, partner certainly should not lead from a worthless 4 card heart suit if he has 5 diamonds to an honor.
UR: it is indeed a very borderline opening hand, but it's a brave new world out there and people are very aggressive nowadays. Most people would not open the hand, but for those that do, I think the bidding is right. Opener just keeps sending "slow down" messages by rebidding clubs. Obviously, if you're going to open these kinds of hands, your partner needs to take that possibility into account when bidding.
Ok, enough about the bidding. How do we beat this hand? Partner leads the 3 of Hearts and declarer plays the 9 from dummy. Things certainly look promising for your side. You're up.
Edit: let's simplify this a little. Assume partner isn't torturing you by leading from 10xxx and that he therefore has a heart honor. |
I should have listened to you more when you said that his bids made sense in 4cm. My understanding of 5cm is a little flawed when it comes to subtleties.
Could you expand on why he wouldn't just sump to 3nt after the 2 club bid? I mean what is he fishing for with the 2d bid? Hoping partner will return to spades? In which case he goes to 4?
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Bird
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South Orange, New Jersey
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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quote: Originally posted by GP
Could you expand on why he wouldn't just sump to 3nt after the 2 club bid? I mean what is he fishing for with the 2d bid? Hoping partner will return to spades? In which case he goes to 4? |
He is indeed fishing with the 2D bid, basically asking opener to further describe his hand. Among other things, he may be hoping he can catch partner with 3 spades, in which case opener will certainly now support that suit. But, playing 4 card majors, he might also be catering to the possibility that opener has something along the lines of 1-2-4-6 distribution and minimum values. In that case, 5D might be the only makeable game.
Playing 5 card majors, he could be looking for any of the foregoing, plus also possibly a 4 card heart suit from opener (1-4-2-6 or 1-4-3-5 distribution, for example).
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Bird
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South Orange, New Jersey
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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quote: Originally posted by GP
I don't think he would be loking for a 4 card h suit, since h only has 3. Right? |
Well, you didn't know that until the bidding was over and partner led his suit. My comments were directed at that kind of bid in general. In this case, we know he wasn't looking for a heart fit, which helps us focus on the other possibilities.
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Bird
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South Orange, New Jersey
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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quote: Originally posted by GP
But in that case, his own diamond suit must be real. I.e. at least 4 deep.
On a side note (general issue): I agree that partner might bid a new suit as a conveneince bid, since he know it's forcing, but I will tend to read them as "real bids". So partner better be sure that I don't misinterpret his bids. I don't think it would happen in this case*...but in others I could see problems. (i.e opener jumps to game of a minor)
*Since opener has already showed a minimum opener hand...and responder is basically in charge now. |
Yes, playing 4 card majors, the bid should be real (generally). Here, however, the bidding is not 4 card majors, which means the bid isn't necessarily real. In this case, however, the rest of the bidding and opening lead give you lots of clues about the minor suit distribution. See my earlier comments in the longer post. The upshot is that declarer in all likelihood has at least 3 if not 4 diamonds.
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TCO
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Richmond, VA
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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quote: Originally posted by Bird
Yes, playing 4 card majors, the bid should be real (generally). Here, however, the bidding is not 4 card majors, which means the bid isn't necessarily real. In this case, however, the rest of the bidding and opening lead give you lots of clues about the minor suit distribution. See my earlier comments in the longer post. The upshot is that declarer in all likelihood has at least 3 if not 4 diamonds. |
I'm not trying to be vexing. Just trying to disect it all.
FYI: I wasn't aware that 5cm said that higher minor bids were false. I know that the "best minor" OPENING may be 3 short. I could see someone using a false new suit bid in EITHER system to "keep the bidding going". Just when one does so, one needs to be careful. In this case, it would work fine since partner is unlikely to jump to 5d after showing such a weak 2c bid.
Last edited by TCO on 31-05-2002 at 01:30
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TCO
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Richmond, VA
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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quote: Originally posted by Bird
Well, you didn't know that until the bidding was over and partner led his suit. My comments were directed at that kind of bid in general. In this case, we know he wasn't looking for a heart fit, which helps us focus on the other possibilities. |
Just trying to think it through. If I just accept something that I don't understand, it won't help me learn.
After bidding and dummy lawdown, we know:
1.declarer has an unbalanced hand (from the 2d bid).
2a.he either has a real diamond suit (based on the 2d bid)
2.b or he has a 5 sp suit (based on the 2d bid)
From 2a and b, he must be:
5332
5323
5341
5350
or
4343 ---> too balanced. can't be this one.
4352 ---> would have bid 1d can't be this one
So he must have 5 spades!!! gotta be.
Probably he's 5341 or 5350. Wouldn't you think that with 5332 or 5323, he would have bid 3nt rather than 2d?
hmmm...more slow thinking. With the crappy sp suit, would he have bid the diamonds suit first or the spades, if they are both 5 high? If that's true than he must be 5341. But, bidding the sp first has the benefit of being more economical and of looking for a major suit fit first. UR points out that with 5 diamonds he would have settled for 3d rather than go to game. I think this is true, if he has 13-15 points. If he has as much as 17, than he could have gone to 3nt* even with the hole in clubs. But to have any chance of defeating the contract, I've gotta figure decl doesn't have 17 points (partner has soemthing) so that argues for 5341.
My money bet: 5341.
* not a perfect contract but opener would pass 3 or 4d and with 17 points he would want a shot at game.
Oops!!! scratch that thought. he can't have 17 points if he is void in clubs since partner would have the A of clubs. So UR is right, he would have settled for 3d.
So it MUST be 5341 (you can tell me if 5332 or 5323 are balanced enough to have prompted him to bid 3nt rather than 2d)
Last edited by TCO on 31-05-2002 at 01:23
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TCO
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Richmond, VA
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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dp
Last edited by TCO on 31-05-2002 at 01:32
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Bird
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South Orange, New Jersey
Jan 1970 time: 00:19
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quote: So he must have 5 spades!!! gotta be. |
Yep, I'd say so.
quote: Probably he's 5341 or 5350. Wouldn't you think that with 5332 or 5323, he would have bid 3nt rather than 2d? |
I already talked about the minor suit distribution inferences, but answering these questions anyway: 5341 is a definite possibility. With 5350, it's a tough call -- some people would rebid diamonds with the thought of perhaps getting to 5D, but I wouldn't blame anyone for bidding 3NT with, say, a 15 count opposite a partner who bid clubs clubs and clubs again. He wouldn't necessarily bid 3NT with 5332 or 5323 shape (he might look for a 5-3 spade fit, among other reasons -- see my earlier comments).
quote: So it MUST be 5341 (you can tell me if 5332 or 5323 are balanced enough to have prompted him to bid 3nt rather than 2d) |
See previous comments.
Anyway, enough about the bidding, start defending. Partner led the H3, declarer put in the 9 from J92. Your move. (And, like I already said, things don't look so bad for the good guys.)
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