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Catt
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California - SF Bay Area
May 2002
time: 21:19
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Sava, thanks for the reply, but I think the civulator is just a calculator. It doesn't answer the question of whether or not the defenders get the bonus (since the user selects the applicable defensive bonus options).
I do think that the defenders get the bonuses (i.e., that an amphibious assault is just like a land-based assault), but only because I don't see any "official" (i.e., manual, civolopedia (sp?), or Firaxian comment) confirmation, nor a posted experiment that demonstrated, beyond statistical doubt, that marines were winning far more battles than would seem normal.
OTOH, I don't know that the defender gets the bonus, and I have seen the view expressed so many times, that I wonder if I'm just missing something, or whether this truly is an urban civilization myth.
Catt 
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Catt
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California - SF Bay Area
May 2002
time: 21:19
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Okay -- I managed to set up and run a test to determine whether defenders lose their city defense bonuses when facing amphibious assaults. The answer (definitive, in my view) is that they do not. In other words, city defense bonuses apply to defenders, even when being attacked amphibiously by marines.
First, the test results:
Situation: marines attacking from a transport. Defender is an infantry, fortified in a metropolis (size 14), built on grassland. Assuming all defensive bonuses apply, the infantry defense should be 23.5 (base of 10, bonuses as follows: 100%+25%+10%, from metropolis, fortification, grassland respectively). With an attack value of 8, we would expect the marine to win 25.40% of the individual combat die rolls (i.e. hit point lost by attacker or defender).
Actual test results:
2501 individual combat die rolls
1867 HPs lost by marines
634 HPs lost by infantry
Empirical marine success rate: 25.35%
Someone who actually took statistics and remembers the experience can comment on whether 2500 trials is sufficient to give comfort -- it certainly is for me.
Catt
[For those who wish to understand how I conducted the test, details here.]
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vulture
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Leeds, UK
Jun 2001
time: 05:19
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quote:
Originally posted by Catt
First, the test results:
Situation: marines attacking from a transport. Defender is an infantry, fortified in a metropolis (size 14), built on grassland. Assuming all defensive bonuses apply, the infantry defense should be 23.5 (base of 10, bonuses as follows: 100%+25%+10%, from metropolis, fortification, grassland respectively). With an attack value of 8, we would expect the marine to win 25.40% of the individual combat die rolls (i.e. hit point lost by attacker or defender).
Actual test results:
2501 individual combat die rolls
1867 HPs lost by marines
634 HPs lost by infantry
Empirical marine success rate: 25.35%
Someone who actually took statistics and remembers the experience can comment on whether 2500 trials is sufficient to give comfort -- it certainly is for me.
Catt |
Using the standard binomial results, the standard deviation for your results is +/- 21.8, so you success rate becomes (25.35 +/-0.87) % with 68% confidence (although the confidence interval isn't really symmetric about the value you derived). From this you can work out the 68% confidence limits for the city defensive bonus, and it gives you 90%-112%, with the actual value from the data being 101%.
The data are sufficient to reject the hypothesis that the city defense bonus is reduced to 50% or less (size 12 or less city) at about the 5 sigma (>99.99%) confidence level.
Last edited by vulture on 17-06-2002 at 14:23
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Catt
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California - SF Bay Area
May 2002
time: 21:19
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quote:
Originally posted by panag
hi ,
 , not exactly , with higher HP's a unit has a bigger change of getting a victory , and in the example of marines , it could be a large difference when using elite in stead of regular's , ....
have a nice day |
Obviously with more HPs a unit is harder to kill. And I know that a veteran has more HPs than a regular, and an elite more than a veteran. But more HPs do not mean a higher chance of winning one individual trial -- i.e., one "combat die roll" that determines who loses a HP but not which unit ultimately dies. If you would simply read my post more carefully, and or go to the original post where I explained how I did the test, you would see that the results are based solely on HPs lost, not on whether one unit has a better chance to win or lose a full engagment (i.e. survive or die). The status (regular, veteran, elite) makes no difference in such a test.
If, OTOH, you're saying that an elite unit with one HP lost (so it has 4 HPs remaining) has a better chance of defeating a defender than a veteran unit of the same type that is completely healty (i.e., 4 HPs left), I would like to understand why you believe this is true, since I don't believe that this is correct.
Catt
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arkanjuca
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São Paulo - Brazil
Sep 2001
time: 02:19
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quote:
Originally posted by panag
hi ,
, not exactly , with higher HP's a unit has a bigger change of getting a victory , and in the example of marines , it could be a large difference when using elite in stead of regular's , ....
have a nice day |
But he is not talking about victory, but single matchs of HP.
The stats say HP, not units...
So, in a match that a elite loses 3 hp and the regular loses 3, it will come 3,3 and not 1,0...
Understood???
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panag
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MY WORDS ARE BACKED WITH BIO-CHEMICAL WEAPONS
Oct 2000
time: 07:19
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quote:
Originally posted by Haupt. Dietrich
Hi,
Explain what you mean by going way further. I thought that combat screen that appeared in SMAC/X was pretty cool. I am interested in hearing your thoughts.
thanks................ |
hi ,
not just a combination of both or a similar screen from SMAC , it should be something that "improves , that is written for this game , SMAC was good , but , something differnet then civ3 , something that shall let us control in real time , that is needed with "turnless-mode" , something tha has a lot of options , that the player could customise a bit" , .....idea's there are enough , but to get them implemeted in the game , ...., afterall , is it possible , can it be done , is there the will to do so , ....
maybe if some one from Firaxis would "guide" us a bit , ...
have a nice day
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05-06-2002 02:26
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