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Faeelin
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Tau Ceti
Oct 2001
time: 05:20
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quote:
Originally posted by paiktis22
and you forgot to say that we also have nice beaches. |
Eh. the beaches in France are better.
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Rufus T. Firefly
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is one way of saying it, though I prefer "mensch"
Sep 2000
time: 07:20
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quote:
Originally posted by Chris 62
Sounds like Turkey will either:
Go Islamic as the people want, and default on it's loans
Have a military coup, in which hardliners will try to control an unruly populance
Have a civil war, with several factions
Lose a third of their country if the Armenians and Kurds get a nation.
None of it looks very appealing. |
None of the above -- at least, not initially.
Here's what seems to be the deal. Elections will be called for October or November. Of the three parties in the ruling coalition, the DSP -- the prime minister's party -- will almost certainly not get enough votes to make it into the parliament (the threshold is an absurdly high 10%). The other two parties in the coalition might survive if the elections are held in November, but probably won't if the elections are held in October (because they won't have had enough time to spin the crisis as "not our fault"). Those two parties are (1) the Motherland party, which might be returned to parliament if it aggressively promotes its pro-EU stance and everyone forgets about the myriad scandals they were enmeshed in two years ago; and (2) the National Movement Party, a hard Right (or, if you prefer, crupto-fascist) party which might be returned to parliament if they can marshall all the anti-EU, anti-Islamic, anti-Kurdish votes in the country.
So the parliament in 2003 would probably consist of:
- The new party Cem has founded, which will run on a strong pro-Western coalition
- The True Path party, which is pro-EU but willing to accomodate Islamicists
- Justice and Progress Party, which hass Islamicist roots but claims to be secular and pro-EU, modeling themselves on European Christian Democratic parties
- possibly the Republican People's Party -- Ataturk's old party -- which will be ideologically very much like Cem's new party
- possible Motherland (pro-secular, pro-EU)
- possibly National Movement (pro-secular, anti-EU)
The big question is what kinds of coalitions will produce a government. The best bets are either (1) a pro-EU coalition government consisting of Cem's party, True Path, and either Republican People's or Motherland, or (2) True Path in coalition with Justice and Progress (effectively the make up of the last government before Ecevit's; Justice and Progress is the latest successor to the Islamicist party that joined with True Path in the mid-90s).
There will be no civil war. There will be no loan default (National Movement might want that, but they won't be part of a ruling coalition). There will be no military coup, at least not initially. There ill be, believe it or not, free elections and the peaceful transfer of power.
Of course, an autumn invasion of Iraq by the US could color all of this -- and I can't even guess how.
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Rufus T. Firefly
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is one way of saying it, though I prefer "mensch"
Sep 2000
time: 07:20
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quote:
Originally posted by The Pioneer
One thing is very very important and that is the fact that Turkey has to stay "pro western" and finally included in the EU (although I'd like to see the Cyprus thing solved till then) to keep the balance btwn muslim and christian states. Like for example now Turkey is leading the coalition forces in Afghanistan and that's a very very good thing (example of unity, no discrimination btwn christians and muslims). It is very important for the rest of the world to appreciate it and promote it. As a greek I wish Turkey will stay stable and its finances to recover, in the last couple years we have shown that if we leave the past behind us it is for the better of us and our children. So for us from theoutside keep our fingers crossed and hope that things will turn out on the right side! |
Those of us inside are crossing our fingers as well. Unfortunately, there's a fair amount of anti-EU sentiment in Turkey. In fact, another reason National Movement is trying to delay elections until November is to screw up any chance the new government would have to prepare for December's EU ascension talks. I think most Turks want to be in the EU -- after all, the economic advantages are obvious -- but many feel that the Copenhagen Criteria for ascension -- which would require Turkey to abolish the death penalty and recognize the rights of Kurds to their own language, among other things -- are too extreme (which is rubbish). Some are also reluctant to become the Sick Man of Europe again, preferring the possibility of being the Strong Man of Central Asia (plans for an EU-like federation of Turkey and the Turkic forner Soviet republics are often mentioned,again mostly by the pan-Turkic fascists in the National Movement Party).
I think Cyprus will be another big issue in the elections, too. Cem is so well-liked in the West in part because he favors rapprochment on the Cyprus issue. By contrast, unfortunately, his resignantion has led to him being replaced by a Cyprus hard-liner, which should effectively squash any progress until a new government is formed.
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Bereta_Eder
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Let's face it. Greek and Turkish relations were never as close as when Cem was Foreign Minister.
There's even a "red hotline phone" between Cem and Papandreou offices to call eachother and difuse tensions when things get hot.
So it's got to be Cem.
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Bereta_Eder
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And shi, instead of supporting democratization in Turkey you support a military regime. You betray the ideals of democracy in the most grottesque way.
When I reply in kind to your pathetic trolls you call me a right winger (which in itself is an insult to me  )
You are an obstacle, the problem and not the solution.
And purposeslly obtuse in distinguishing trolls from reality.
The problem with you is that you are pissed that Greece is doing ok while your beloved Turkey is not. People like you damage Turkey instead of helping her.
So if you want your beloved Turkey to fair better start from the man in the mirror.
(sorry for the unintentional Michael Jackson reference here)
Last edited by Bereta_Eder on 14-07-2002 at 17:39
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Bereta_Eder
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And sorry if I couldn't care less.
Turkey better start being democratic to its own people first, less of an abnoxious child to all its neighboors and maybe we can talk.
Although, as I said, before, how can I have anything against the Turkish and Kurdish people who are the ones who truely suffer.
Instead of lobbying for the political prisoners to get out of their cells and stop being tortured you unashamingly support the military regime. And instead of lobbying for the Kurds to be treated like human beings you supported their slaughter. Are you human? 
Last edited by Bereta_Eder on 14-07-2002 at 17:51
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13-07-2002 18:59
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