22-08-2002 23:54									#1
	Is there any scenario in which the Arabs defeat America in the current war? Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Is there any reasonably feasible scenario that anyone could think that would count as a "victory" for the Arabs against America? Not necessarily a victory on the battlefield, but some hypothetical scenario in which future historians would consider them the victors of this current war.

	22-08-2002 23:57									#2
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I don't think so .

	22-08-2002 23:57									#3
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Absolutely none. Zip, zero, notta.

	23-08-2002 00:27									#4
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hmm, I will have to think on it

Jon Miller

	23-08-2002 00:31									#5
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If we capitulate to their demands to stop supporting our chief ally in the region (hint: not Egypt or Saudi Arabia) then they might consider that to be a victory.

Out war aims are different. We want them dead, while they want Israel dead. If the **** hits the fan we might both win.

	23-08-2002 00:37									#6
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If a WMD is used in AMerica?

	23-08-2002 00:44									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Faeelin If a WMD is used in AMerica?

One already has been.

	23-08-2002 01:39									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Faeelin If a WMD is used in AMerica?

Expect the country to go radical.

Expect to see all Arabs locked up in internment camps.

Expect to see some fireworks in the Middle East and Pakistan.

Expect the US to become an empire.

	23-08-2002 01:45									#9
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Yes.

The critical step for the terrorists is to change the perception of the war from being civilized nations vs. terrorism to being Christian & Jews vs. Muslims. If the terrorists can recruit the majority of the Muslim world to their side, they can cut off sufficient oil supplies to the West to bring about an ecnomic catastrophe. Moreover, the mere size of the conflict alone will cause a massive breakdown in world trade.

	23-08-2002 01:46									#10
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As I said, WMDs have been used against the US already.

So those things listed by LM should be happening, which they are.

	23-08-2002 01:49									#11
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That the US has declared war against the entire ethnic arabic people was news to me, i guess that's a typical Bush-speach blunder in that case.

	23-08-2002 01:59									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Sagacious Dolphin As I said, WMDs have been used against the US already.

Why wasn't I informed of a NBC attack?

	23-08-2002 02:01									#13
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Obviously, military victory in any sense is not possible for the Arab states (not even getting into how loaded a statement it is to say that the US is fighting the Arabs). However, they could score other victories depending on how far the US is willing to pursue the war. I'm mainly thinking economic....

Here's something plausible: The US attacks Iraq unilaterally, not satisfying their allies or the majority of the American public of the absolute necessity. The war becomes protracted, fuelling anti-American sentiment around the Arab world (a quick US victory would definitely stir things up, but nothing pours salt into a wound like a lengthy conflict). IMHO, you would immediately see (and we're probably gonna anyway) a huge drop in the stock market. Depending on the duration and opposition to the conflict, there could be a further sell off by foreigners and, especially, wealthy Arabs of US stocks. Oil prices skyrocket, and, coupled with the burden of paying for the invasion itself (unlike the other Gulf War), the US economy goes into a nose dive that will make the last year look like the late 90's. Further, the possibility of increase terrorist attacks against US interests, especially abroad, will keep the markets down.

This is just something I thought of off the top of my head, and I guess you could argue that if this did happen, it would be less of an Arab victory than a nasty side-effect. Still, there is a great deal of economic damage that could be done by wealthy Arabs who hold US stock (and it's a lot), not to mention restricting oil production. Now, in the long run the US could probably overcome all of these problems, but it would likely require going imperial, occupying the majority of the ME and basically becoming entirely isolationist from an economic perspective. Europe ain't gonna like it, and while they are very unlikely to do anything militarily to stop the US, you can pretty much expect the world economy to go down the crapper for a while have a very different looking world afterward.

	23-08-2002 02:12									#14
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What's with that perception that America somehow depends on arab oil ? Russia can increase production, America can actually produce , and not preserve it's own resourses.

	23-08-2002 02:13									#15
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They are not happening yet. But if New York get nuked for example, they will happen.

The Anthrax attacks were not carried out by terrorists, but by an eccentric and over-concerned American scientist.

Arabs would never win this contest. The worst that can happen to us is the US turning into a totalitarian empire and several million casualties. The worst that can happen to Arabs is the destruction of their civilization. No sane people want either of the 2 possibilities to become the reality.

Those Al-Qaeda fanatics were only banking on Christian democracies playing nice. But have they considered the possiblity that these "democracies" can go radical and play nasty?

	23-08-2002 02:13									#16
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quote: Out war aims are different. We want them dead, while they want Israel dead. If the **** hits the fan we might both win.

uh i didn't know we actually wanted to kill eachother?

	23-08-2002 02:15									#17
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I wouldn't worry too much about oil. 3/4 of our oil doesn't come from Arab states anyway. In addition, we already possess alternative technologies, but these technologies are prevented from taking off by the cheap oil. Rising oil prices would do wonder to technological innovations.

	23-08-2002 02:16									#18
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I really dislike the loaded nature of this question. We are really fighting pan-muslim terrorism, or even terrorism more broadly construed (Columbia, etc.).

	23-08-2002 02:18									#19
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yes, of course. ( note : I support you )

	23-08-2002 02:21									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Trajanus uh i didn't know we actually wanted to kill eachother?

I oversimplified things immensely to make my statement palatable for foreign consumption.

First of all, Belgium is not involved. Second, we don't want to kill all the Arabs, just the uppity ones. Third, we don't want to just kill them, we also want to torture them and extract information.

Is that more helpful?

	23-08-2002 03:43									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Lord Merciless Expect the US to become an empire.

We already are an empire.

Comrade monkspider, we are not at war with the Arabs. We are at war with a Muslim terrorist organization which is largely Muslim, but also has people of different ethnicities.

	23-08-2002 03:46									#22
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Well, there is the one scenario where pigs fly out my ass...

	23-08-2002 03:50									#23
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Perhpas if the terrorists had planned a sustained assault to commense immediately after the planes hit, with car bombs going off and machine gunning in malls and such, etc. They hit us and ran away. They should have hit us and kept on hitting us and hitting us. That would likely have caused the US to declare martial law and our democratic experiement would be over.

That opportunity has passed.

	23-08-2002 03:53									#24
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Crazy and stupid, huh chegitz?

	23-08-2002 03:53									#25
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Thank goodness.

	23-08-2002 03:56									#26
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1,754 nukes raining down on the US will give the arab nations a sporting chance.

Ofcourse everyone would dead so there is really no winner.

	23-08-2002 04:13									#27
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Hmm, I could see few scenarios where they could take the lead, but maybe for a short time. It would have some surprise attacks with surprise alliances in the arab world, mostly a masterplanned attack to Israel, invade.
No arguing about Israel kicking them back, it could happen, it is not impossible if done greatly. It would be tough for the US then.. It's not like they would nuke the place. It would give initiative to arabs, which is essential.
But maybe only for starters.. what would happen after this, I think total chaos. This wouldn't be victory for them, but it would be hard to defeat them after that and call it victory.

Anyway what the arabs need to do is to take the war away from their lands, or at least spread it to the enemies lands, not just small terror strikes, but full scale. Eventually they'd be kicked back from Israel, but when that time comes, they'd have the war spread so wide, it wouldn't be a problem. Would they defeat the US? Maybe not.
But they should keep the initiative, as to control the happenings. Change pressure points, move in, move out, train the villagers and the people, spread propaganda, spread terror, take hostages, spread wild rumours, give informants to enemy with wrong info.. etcetc. Try to mobilize the troops so, that it couldn't be taken out in one strike, and it could operate with only one team on their own.. etc. Stuff that small countries usually do if they want to success, or even the scores.

Last edited by Pekka on 23-08-2002 at 04:20

	23-08-2002 04:16									#28
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara We already are an empire.

The "empire" I meant was more like a totalitarian regime. It the US were such an entity, you wouldn't be here posting anti-US stuff. They would have you exterminated already.

	23-08-2002 04:21									#29
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Sounds like the USSR way .

	23-08-2002 04:26									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Pekka Hmm, I could see few scenarios where they could take the lead, but maybe for a short time. It would have some surprise attacks with surprise alliances in the arab world, mostly a masterplanned attack to Israel, invade. No arguing about Israel kicking them back, it could happen, it is not impossible if done greatly. It would be tough for the US then.. It's not like they would nuke the place. It would give initiative to arabs, which is essential. But maybe only for starters.. what would happen after this, I think total chaos. This wouldn't be victory for them, but it would be hard to defeat them after that and call it victory. Anyway what the arabs need to do is to take the war away from their lands, or at least spread it to the enemies lands, not just small terror strikes, but full scale. Eventually they'd be kicked back from Israel, but when that time comes, they'd have the war spread so wide, it wouldn't be a problem. Would they defeat the US? Maybe not. But they should keep the initiative, as to control the happenings. Change pressure points, move in, move out, train the villagers and the people, spread propaganda, spread terror, take hostages, spread wild rumours, give informants to enemy with wrong info.. etcetc. Try to mobilize the troops so, that it couldn't be taken out in one strike, and it could operate with only one team on their own.. etc. Stuff that small countries usually do if they want to success, or even the scores.

They tried that already 4 times from 1948 to 1973, with full backings from the great USSR. Result: they got their ass literally kicked every time. That's why they resorted to terror now.

As I said before, if they played too dirty, what does prevent their enemies from playing dirty too?