05-09-2002 10:14									#1
	Who will be the next (AI) Abananaba Super Power? Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Who do you think will be the next Abananaba Super Power: Germany, Aztecs, England, Rome or Greece?

This poll is designed to show who will be the first AI to emerge PREMINENT to the others, if you think one will get better, vote for it only if it will surpass them all and emerge our chief competitor.


The other powers were not included for the following reasons:

Persia: unable to expand, doesn't have access to immortals, ready to lose a war to us which will hurt them some. I expect them to lose to the English in their first fight, by which time Immortals will be useless. The reasoning is that the English should have a number of units honed by the fight against the Greeks, and could take advantage of the Persians weakened state. I consider it very unlikely that Persia will be able to keep up in the future. England will be close, but should be able to hang in there as they already are second, and thus have room to maneouver

Russians: Lack of infrastructure prevents them from forming an all powerful empire. They only have a few well developed cities. The Aztecs have similar infrastructure problems, but have a larger empire, and thus make the list. The Russians aren't likely to get more good city sites, and thus are unlikely to emerge top dog in the long run.

Babalyon: Few cities, the strong culture won't help them survive the Russians or Romans. The lack of iron prevents them from getting knights. Unable to expand, they will be squeezed as if by a boa constrictor. Even culture flips won't be enough to save them.

Iroquois: They have a fair number of cities, but to be blunt, and pardon my French, they suck. Suck big time. Being stuck in the desert is the worst you could ask for, except maybe an arctic island. Don't expect them to survive a determined enemy.

French: We kicked some serious ass in the last war, and they won't be the same ever again. Expect them to be a holdever that is eventually swallowed in the early industrial period. They are stuck on the least attractive side of the Great Basin, and their cities on the other side are vulnerable. The loss of their best cities will be their doom.

America: You wish. Lincoln is one war away from assimilation by us. The Americans are a doomed race, fit only to hold the land we will eventually claim.

Now, when you vote, could you please explain your reasoning? Perhaps there should be some discussion first, then everyone can vote. If you feel that one of the above should have been included in the poll, please express why politely. If you think it is too early to tell, say why.

edit: I know that I put a lot of choices on the poll, but I wanted to put this up now to see what people think now, so that in the future we can look back and see who was right. (Also, so we can figure out who is really a psychic) I am sure Reddawg could find a use for this in the future.

double edit: I should have put the date on the thread tag, but will do that for the second one. I intend to poll again in about 200 to 300 years, to see what ppl say then.

triple edit:
I want to apologize, because, after careful condsideration, there could easily be two superpowers on Abananaba. I should have one poll for Abananaba Minor, and one for Abananaba Major. Geography means that it is like we are on two seperate continents, and what happens south of us may not change what happens north.

Last edited by Donal Graeme on 05-09-2002 at 21:05

	05-09-2002 10:33									#2
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1 vote now, and for Germany. Now I have a question, why? This is not like selecting a person for office, anonymity is not important for self interest. I just would like to know whether it is an educated guess or just a random pick.

	05-09-2002 10:41									#3
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Greece is the biggest threat at this point.

Has anyone else noticed that the Greeks occupy at least one English city?

Oh, and btw, compared to Greece our military is weak. That is a recipe for an invasion.

	05-09-2002 13:07									#4
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Voted Greece, BUT....

All of the following is based on looking at the current maps (210BC), so I may be wrong in many places... Please feel free to correct

In short term Greece is the power to look out for, for now. As they are our neighbours and as nye said, have superior army.
This is why we should start preparing for a Greek invasion in our border cities. I don't know now are they included in any other wars than the one against the English.
If they are, then maybe we can relax a little but if not then I would urge our ministers to keep the possible Greek invasion in mind regarding future orders.
If the war against the English go well and they destroy the English to only a few cities they have shown the world their power, and I think that it is enough to keep them above all other nations.
Should they start loosing the war, well then maybe it would be time for us to take advantage of the situation and perhaps take a few cities... (Yes I know, its not going to happen )

In longer term I would nominate the Romans as candidate for number one as they occupy a lot of good and fertile land, have some infrastructure in place and is surrounded by many weak neighbours (read: soon to become parts of the Roman Empire).
The only thing stopping the romans from taking the Iroquis, Russians and Babylon is the Babylonians. They have lots of infrastructure and high culture, but should Rome focus first on the Babylonians then the rest of the nations are easy. (That is that no alliances get signed). I think that an alliance with the Greek could save the Iroquois, Russians or Babylon. Also there is the chance that all three of them ally against Rome which would propably mean an end to the Roman Empire.
Should the Romans take advantage of their situation in their peninsula soon they are about to rise to a mighty nation to deal with.

Also the Aztec earn to be mentioned as possible super power as they also hold some good terretory.
But I fail to see how could they produce a lot of infrastructure and military before some one decides to attact them.

Well then the Germans...
Yeah they have the desire to wage war and to rule the world, but hey, as history has teached us, don't worry...
As our neighbours they pose a threat to us but with some good defensive structures and units I think we can manage to keep them out. As a peace treaty has just signed between us I hope that the Germnans will now focus on the Aztecs or somebody else (ideal would be the Greeks!). Should they declare war against us, well then we just have to take Hamburg, Berlin and Frankfurt (in that order). I think after those losses they are willing to give us anything we want and more.

Ok, then the Persians
Currently at war with us. This is good as we now have the excuse to take some of their border cities as planned by many of our citizen.
I dont see how they could become a serious threat to us as they lack iron (don't they?). Without iron they dont have many good offencive units to harass us with.
The only hope for Persians would be to get peace with us asap (which they aren't going to get, right?) and then build up military and attack the English.
This way they could get some more space for them selves but it would only be temporarily, as I'm sure they are on our list of Extinct Nations to Be.


The others are in my opinion not worthy of mentioning as they are to become extinct somewhere in the near future.


To sum up something from this post is that we should prepare ourselves for the worst by building a lot of both military units (def&off) and concentrate on taking the most Persian cities as possible.
But as member of the DIA I must say that once the war against Persia is over we should concentrate on building infrastructure and improvements to allow us to develope into a powerhouse. This would ideally lead to a situation where we would be able to deal with any other super power in Abananaba.


Thank you for reading this far.

	05-09-2002 16:51									#5
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I'm rather confident that Germany is going to emerge as the next major power. From rankings we already kn ow that Greece is the strongest and this is confirmed by the military advisor. While England is second, they're losing ground to the Greeks.

However now that a Peace has been created with Germany, and they lost only one insignificant town, they are free to do whatever they want basically. They'll be the next major power, and I'm sure they will surpass England; perhaps not Greece.

	05-09-2002 18:06									#6
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Rome, good position, a variety of luxuries and resources in their territory.

They've beaten all their neighbors into submission and have no worries at home. Can fight wars on other nations homeland. Roman protectorates will be Iroquois, Babylon, Russia, and France.

Greece is cocky but they have HORRIBLE land and a horrible location. They will end up being at war with several civs who will carve out chunks of Greece and drive them to their island in the sea.

Persia if we don't take them out now. EXTREME amount of luxury resources clumped together in optimal small area on river tiles. Will generate immense amounts of science and commerce. They have the PERFECT builders land situation. Unless someone takes them now, they are going to be the strings behind every other nation.

Aztecs have potential as they have a similiar defensive advatage like Persia. Must maintain Germany as a bufferstate or vassal. I see the Aztecs building several Great Wonders and pulling a combo of advancing in science AND building advanced military units.

Unless they ally with someone Germany's doomed. They are completely surrounded. If they form a continuing alliance with the Aztecs, England or Us they will become an excellent mercenary state. Seriously doubt they can go anywhere on there own for the long haul but they may have a short span of influence before the end of the Middle Ages.

	05-09-2002 18:16									#7
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I vote APOLYTONIA!!!

As long as we follow Operation ROP(e) Revenge, we will have three lux (with extra to trade) a large modern veteran army, and Uber Island. All will fear our mearest of thoughts.

	05-09-2002 21:26									#8
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I've picked the Romans.

But my pick is based on a simple assumption: the assumption that they will realize their dominance over their neighbors and begin the conquest shortly.

The Romans are militeristic and have already produced a number of Legionaries, and ought to go on a conquest spree as the REX phase is over. My only concern is the sighting of two of their legionaries headed past Cherborg in a north-eastern direction. If they "pull a Greece" and pick a war on a far-off target, they will waste their advantage and gain nothing except a premature GA.

However, if they pounce on the Iriquois and Russians, they will pull away from the rest of us with a large number of cities, no powerful neighbors, and a very defensible hegemony of Abananba Minor.

Greece doesn't excite me. They only managed to take one worthless English city by surprise, they were caught off-guard by the Aztecs and had to buy the Germans to help. No one has taken a single city in their pointless war. They have potential. They have weak neighbors. But their UU is now pointless, their GA nearly over, their time on top is done. They didn't take advantage of it. They will become second rate as Germany and Apolytonia rise above them by the end of the Middle Ages.

Germany is surrounded by too many strong powers: England, Apolytonia, Greece, and the Aztecs (if they get their act together -- their land is golden). They are a rogue nation without a target. They lost in their war with us, they haven't made any progress against the Aztecs. Their advantage has been squandered. They'll get another chance in the Industrial Age, but unless they pull off a major conquest, they will not be the next Super Power.

--Togas

(edit. Typo)

Last edited by Togas on 05-09-2002 at 23:19

	05-09-2002 21:29									#9
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hi ,

who knows , maybe we get an invasion from an other civ , ....

actually , very soon we shall rule abananaba , ..... héhéh

have a nice day

	05-09-2002 23:12									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Togas My only concern is the sighting of two of their legionaries headed past Cherborg in a north-eastern direction. If they "pull a Greece" and pick a war on a far-off target, they will waste their advantage and gain nothing except a premature GA.

Wow, Togas and I see pretty much eye to eye on everything.

I think WE are "the far-off target".

	05-09-2002 23:17									#11
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quote: Originally posted by GhengisFarb I think WE are "the far-off target".

Very possible. I'm just surprised they skipped the undefended Cherborg. We don't have too much to fear from them if it is us ... we can fend off two legionaries. Would be rather funny to see them waste their GA on a long distance war with us. Their Republic government would settle for peace with us before any of the troops arrived to invade.

--Togas

	05-09-2002 23:30									#12
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After re-examining the map some I have come to the conclusion that I should have included the Persians and Russians. Right now neither can hope to be top dog, unless they attack and absorb a neighbor. If Russia invades and conquers Babylon, then they can supersede Rome in Abananaba Minor. And if the Persians can somehow take out the English and grab their cities, the same can happen. But that is the only outcome I see in which either has a chance. The English are different from the Persians as they can grab a number of Aztec cities, and thus have some room to expand.

Side note: I don't think the Greeks can really pull off a power-play in the future, their Geography seems to prohibit them from becoming a super-power, the only way they can become one is to conquer America, and attack us and capture our closest cities, otherwise they don't have a strong enough core of cities. Geography allowed them to rise to the top in the beginning, but won't let them maintain that position for long. The Germans only have a core, which means they might be able to pull it off, but it will almost certainly involve them absorbing some of the Aztec Empire. Simply put, they need more "feeder" cities.

	06-09-2002 01:57									#13
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1) Persia doesn't need to fight anyone to become a superpower. It simply has to keep its core and build infrastructure.

2)You really need to throw the GA's into this. Persia hasn't had theirs and may not until after they've built up their luxury cities.

3)Greece ranks high because their coming to the end of theirs. Rome is powerful because of theirs also, they just used it better that the Greeks.

	06-09-2002 09:59									#14
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I forgot to mention one of the reasons why I didn't include Persia was the fact that we will be walloping on them before too long, and they could lose a couple of cities. Their military will likely take a beating as well, so they will not be able to absord England, a perequisite to them becoming a superpower (in Civ3, its impossible to have a 6 city Superpower, unless each city is size 20 with lots of shields and food. Not the case for them.)

	06-09-2002 19:57									#15
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quote: Originally posted by GhengisFarb 1) Persia doesn't need to fight anyone to become a superpower. It simply has to keep its core and build infrastructure. 2)You really need to throw the GA's into this. Persia hasn't had theirs and may not until after they've built up their luxury cities. 3)Greece ranks high because their coming to the end of theirs. Rome is powerful because of theirs also, they just used it better that the Greeks.

hi ,

, an early GA could be intresting , but in this case (in moast actually) an early GA aint good , ....

we should try to hold ours until its really needed !

actually , when would be a good time to have ours , ...
any thoughts , ....

have a nice day

	06-09-2002 20:39									#16
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Rome is dangerous, by his geographic location. But in the last Road Map (210 BC, I need to do an update) we can see a serious lack in his infrastructure. Only a few roads. I was expecting more. The Russians, IMHO, are been underestimate, and the Greeks have the same problems that Romans have, poor infrastructure. Not to mention the lack of space to grow (btw, we need to be prepared, they could think about invade us). It's hard to decide... I'll pick the Romans, but I’m not quite sure of it.

	06-09-2002 21:44									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Aro Rome is dangerous, by his geographic location. But in the last Road Map (210 BC, I need to do an update) we can see a serious lack in his infrastructure. Only a few roads. I was expecting more. The Russians, IMHO, are been underestimate, and the Greeks have the same problems that Romans have, poor infrastructure. Not to mention the lack of space to grow (btw, we need to be prepared, they could think about invade us). It's hard to decide... I'll pick the Romans, but I’m not quite sure of it.

hi ,

lets hope it stays that way , ... but indeed we need to be prepared , ...

who knows what species might still be out there ,....

and that sets foot on our soil , .....

have a nice day

	06-09-2002 23:12									#18
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I voted none, because I really see things developing into a pseudo "balance of power" between Rome, Greece, and us and possibly Germany or the Aztecs if one or the other comes out way ahead in their war. If things go well for us in Uber Island and Persia then chances are the rankings will look like Rome, Apolytonia, Greece, Germany, England with the other civs being more or less insignificant.

	07-09-2002 00:29									#19
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the "Lost Civs" are India, China, Japan, and the Zulus?

(The undiscovered world is the Mysterious Orient and Dark Africa )

Not knowing what they have size or terrain-wise, we have China and India, both builder civs and quite capable of science advancement, put them together and they'll be trading their way up the technology chart.

Japan and the Zulus are more aggresive, and I'd say the Zulus started out in a bad position or isolated geographically as they would have wiped out one of the other civs with their Impis otherwise.

Mind you these are just shots in the dark, but I'd hate to come into contact finding out their the tops of the heap with our continent falling behind.

	07-09-2002 01:06									#20
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I agree with you on the Zulus thing but I don't think that the other civs are very technologically advanced. There's no evidence that they all began on the same continent or have any contact with each other, so it's possible that they were unable to collaborate in research like the 12 Abananaban civs did and still do.

	07-09-2002 01:15									#21
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I think there is a chance the lost civs are as advanced as we are, but I dont think more so. The main reason I say that is every wonder thats been constructed so far that I know of was constructed by one of the 12 we have contact with. If Im wrong correct me, but that tends to say we have at least a slight lead in technology or at least that we have better terrain for shields in our part of the world

	07-09-2002 01:33									#22
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Excellent point wervdon.

	07-09-2002 01:33									#23
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About Japan and Zulus, the fifth city in the Top Five Cities (F11) is japanese (Kyoto) This says something...

	07-09-2002 01:44									#24
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Good observation Aro.
I wonder how it made it there. It's a 1 pop. town with no wonders. I guess it must be surrounded with tiles with luxuries or something.
Btw, here's another interesting point: according to the way the city looks, the Japanese are still in the ancient era.

	07-09-2002 01:52									#25
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And this practically proves the wervdon point.

	07-09-2002 02:00									#26
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One more thought: the first civ able to find those lost guys will be rich. They probably have luxuries, resources and some money, but no techs. What a shame, unfortunately this is not for us... Unless we can get navigation first, but IMO, this seems impossible.

	07-09-2002 04:19									#27
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Greece. They have Theology and can bring in as many allies as they want in the war.

	07-09-2002 08:51									#28
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I just checked the game out, and the Japanese are still in the Ancient Era. That means we can sell them tech, and get rich in the process. As for the top dog, I think we can all agree Rome is going to be in the top 3, provided they don't waste their GA and get their asses kicked by the Russians later. Othewise, I think Greece, Germany, the Aztecs or England will be the other competitor. The English haven't had their GA yet, along with the Germans, so either could get a boost in the late midieval that might change the geopolitical situation around some. I believe the next 10 turns will say a lot.

	07-09-2002 08:56									#29
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I think England and the Aztecs are in for an ass kicking. Greece is going to techwhore for allies.

	07-09-2002 09:21									#30
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To whom? Germany has already gotten in a war with 2 ppl, us and the Aztecs, they settled on our terms for peace, leaving them weaker, and are still fighting the Aztecs. The Persians are about to kicked their heads handed to them thanks to our latest offensive, and everyone else is too far away.