05-11-2002 23:02									#1
	U.S. Election Predictions/Results Increase the size of your Attachments

For those Americans watching the polls today, here is a thread for posting predictions and results.

Overall Predictions:

The Democrats will maintain a status quo in the Senate, keeping control by a 1-seat margin.

The Republicans will hold the House, possibly gaining a seat or two, but the Democrats may surprise in the close races and pick up some (not enough to take control, however).

The Democrats will pick up at least 3 governorships, which will be their most significant gain of the election.

Individual Races:

Governors:

NY: Pataki (R), no contest. The only real question is if McCall (D) can come in respectably or not. While Golisano (I) looked strong a week ago for 2nd place, he lost ground and will be 3rd for sure.

CA: Davis (D), handily. The Republicans really botched this one.

MD: Townsend (D) will pull off a skin-of-her-teeth victory, despite her awful campaign against Erlich (R).

FL: Bush (R) wins reasonably comfortably, as McBride's campaign went limp lately.

IL: Democrats pick this one up, first time in 3 decades I believe.

KS: Surprisingly, looks like the Dems will win this one as well.

PA: Ditto.

Senate Races:

MN: Mondale (D) wins, narrowly.

MS: Carnahan (D) loses, seat goes back to the GOP.

TX: Coyne (R) wins over Kirk (D), despite Kirk's recent surge.

NC: Dole (R) wins, but it's closer than expected.

AR: Hutchinson (R) is defeated handily by Pryor (D), so seat switches to Dems

NH: Too close to really predict, but I sense Shaheen (D) won't be able to eke past Sununu (R), so it stays GOP.

GA: Cleland (D) keeps it, barely

CO: Democrat gain as Strickland (D) beats the pathetic Allard (R)

NJ: Safely kept Democratic by Lautenberg.

SD: Tricky, but I think the incumbent Johnson (D) is in real trouble, so I give the edge to Thune (R). Embarrassing for Daschle.

LA: Landrieu (D) will hold the seat, eventually, even if a run-off is needed.

	05-11-2002 23:04									#2
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66666, the number of the *BIG* beast.

	05-11-2002 23:07									#3
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Doesnt rhyme

	05-11-2002 23:12									#4
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I don't agree on MD Gov and MN Senate. You have to give the edge to good politicians over bad (or over the hill, etc.). Coleman is a very disciplined candidate and is hungry (MN). Kennedy Townsend is unexciting in the extreme (MD).

Don't know too much about GA, but I think the GOP might pick this one up.

LA Senate is interesting. If it's 49 seats for the GOP, then this runoff will be nationalized--a race with no faces other than Bush's and Daschle's. If it's 48 seats for the GOP, then Landrieu is the better politician and will win. If it's 49 seats for the GOP, then the GOP wins and takes Senate control.

Lastly, re the governors races (other than MD), you are probably being too generous to the GOP.

Last edited by DanS on 05-11-2002 at 23:20

	05-11-2002 23:13									#5
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Michigan will elect its first woman governor - former attorney general and Democrat Jennifer Granholm. Democratic state senators and reps will retain their seats. Voter turnout is expected to be higher than usual for off-year elections, which should give the Dems a nice boost.

	05-11-2002 23:29									#6
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In Illinois

Senate... (Dem) Durbin over Durkin unless the sun rises in the West, or stupid Dems can't figure out the difference between a "b" and "k".

Governor
Too close to call. It will really depend on where Voter Turnout will be the highest. If Chicago can get out the vote today, the Dems will win.

	05-11-2002 23:31									#7
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Here's a good viewer's guide...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...6-2002Nov5.html

	05-11-2002 23:42									#8
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I don't agree on MD Gov and MN Senate. You have to give the edge to good politicians over bad (or over the hill, etc.).

No, I give the edge to the state party's ability to get out their vote. In MD, the Dems have historically gotten out a lot on election days, even midterms. I think this will give Townsend the edge.

The Mondale prediction is a hunch based on his popularity and that he seems a tad more in-synch with the state's idealogy.

	05-11-2002 23:44									#9
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Democrats will lob lawsuit after lawsuit in closely contested races where they lose. That's my prediction.

http://www.drudgereport.com/mc2.htm

	05-11-2002 23:48									#10
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My prediction:

The world is shocked as Libertarians pick up a majority of the seats in the US Congress. Republicans drop to minor party status and dissappear within a few years.


oh well....


Really though, I agree with your overall predictions Boris. But I'm with Dan on MD Governor race, KKT is dumb as a brick and will loose a squeaker. Though of course it didn't hurt W....

	05-11-2002 23:50									#11
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Oh, I think KKT has run a horrible campaign...I just think that MD's strong Democrat organization will give her a slight edge in a close race.

	05-11-2002 23:53									#12
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Heh. I'm a moderate Republican rooting for Tim Johnson in South Dakota.

Gatekeeper

	05-11-2002 23:55									#13
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The key question of today though is whether or not Che lives up to the quote in David Floyd's profile:

"I need a political party with some integrity. Think I'll vote Libertarian in Novermber. - chegitz guevara"

	06-11-2002 00:00									#14
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I only voted for one Libertarian candidate today... less than usual. It seems like the Illinois Libertarian Party this year had more loonies than usual. But I'll give them credit for providing much humor. After reviewing all the websites for the different parties, at least the Libs web site had me laughing... while the others were a total bore.

	06-11-2002 00:09									#15
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Well there'll be one less independent governor with Baldacci grabbbing Maine easily, he probably won't get close to 80% of the vote like last time he ran for congress though

	06-11-2002 00:11									#16
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Arkansas Predictions:
Senate: Pryor defeats Hutchinson by a small margin
Governor: Jimmie Lou Fisher (D) does better than expected but still loses to Mike Huckabee (R)
Congress: Democrats retain the two seats that are contested for a total of 1 Republican and 3 Democrats

National:
House: +1 Republican
Senate: +1 Democrat (new totals 50-1-49)
Governors: +3 Democrats

	06-11-2002 01:45									#17
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Prediction:

GOP holds House, Democrats Hold Senate. For Maryland, KKT wins the governorship and Connie Morella loses as well.

	06-11-2002 01:49									#18
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quote: MS: Carnahan (D) loses, seat goes back to the GOP

1) Carnahan isn't running here.
2) Our seat is firmly in control of the GOP.
3) The only way Thad Cochran would be endanger of loosing his seat would be for him to be charged with murder.

	06-11-2002 01:55									#19
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I will only predict the safe ones

Pataki for NY gov
Pryor for ark. Senate
Lautenberg of NJ senate

I think (not predictions!) that Shaheen might beat Sununu, I agree with Carnahan losing, I am totally unsure of Minnesota, and I hope we gat 50% or more in Lousiana.

In NY, I think grucci might loose his house seat in Long Island (+1 dems), I think Hevesi beats Faso, for all the money Faso spent tp beocme Comptroler.

Can it be that Ryan (not that ryan.. i know so many people in Illinois who got Jim and George mixed up) will beat Blagoievich? (The dem with the bald head and glasses would have been better candidate: i foregot his name, somehting greek i think)

In NJ, Frank McNamara is just wrong for bergen county (why the hell do I get to see ads against McNamara in NYC: i don't give a damn about bergen county, and I don't even know his opponents name!)

	06-11-2002 02:05									#20
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Early returns from Drudge...

GOP has GA, MN, Missouri

Dems have NC, Arkansas, CO

Big upset with NC, if it holds. This would seem to put the kaibash on the GOP gaining the Senate.

	06-11-2002 02:09									#21
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Since no polls have even closed, where does Drudge (the Sludge) go calling races?

	06-11-2002 02:10									#22
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quote: Originally posted by OzzyKP The key question of today though is whether or not Che lives up to the quote in David Floyd's profile: "I need a political party with some integrity. Think I'll vote Libertarian in Novermber. - chegitz guevara"

There was only one Libertarian running in my district, and yes, I voted for him. It was that or a Republican.

	06-11-2002 02:16									#23
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Since no polls have even closed, where does Drudge (the Sludge) go calling races?

That's what everyone did in 2000.

	06-11-2002 02:17									#24
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GePap: Well, it's exit polls giving a good indication. Hardly definitive.

	06-11-2002 02:19									#25
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I hope Ryan loses in Illinois. That man is totally without any integrity. He's a murderer mascarding as an AG.

	06-11-2002 02:21									#26
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc That's what everyone did in 2000.

And see how far that gets us. we have to wait until the system invalidates its required number of votes. i mean, just cause you went to the polls does not mean your vote will actually count.

	06-11-2002 02:21									#27
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara He's a murderer mascarding as an AG.

How so?

	06-11-2002 02:22									#28
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GePap: Lighten up, dude. It's hardly one of the major networks.

	06-11-2002 02:25									#29
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Even when there is overwhelming evidence of police torture and brutality in confessions which led to death penalty convictions, Jim Ryan has fought tooth and nail to uphold those convictions. Ryan is bloodthirsty, and I strongly suspect he would end George Ryan's moratorium on the DP in Illinois. This in a state where more people have been released from Death Row than have been executed (one man who was executed confessed after being taken to a field and having a gun pointed in his face by the cops--he was illiterate and yet signed a confession).

	06-11-2002 02:30									#30
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We can't just go by exit polls. We have to wait until Bush's cousin, John Ellis, calls the race on FAUX.