05-01-2003 23:06									#1
	Score analysis Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

1. Spain
At the end of 2850BC, our score was : 55, or before averaging 1265.
At the end of 2900BC, our score was : 53, or before averaging 1166.
Difference = 99, which divided by the complexity level (3) gives 33.
This difference is the amount accruing our total every turn.

Control :
- Madrid 21 tiles + 2 pop = 23 points
- Pamplona 9 tiles + 1 pop = 10 points
- TOTAL = 33 points

2. What about the other civs ?
Compared to our 33 points, others rank as follows :
Lego = 33
Vox = 32
GS = 31
ND = 27
GoW = 25
Lux = 24

3. Questions and comments
Although this analysis has to be validated and checked, the figures for the last three civs are really surprising. The absolute minimum at this stage should be 32; are they all pop rushing military units?
The GS figure is strange also. Could they be developing a big city before rexing L.M. ?

It seems that we could detect at least the settling of new cities by all others.

It is pretty sure that the others are doing the same kind of analysis, but in case one or two would not, it is not useful to publicize it.

	05-01-2003 23:24									#2
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Where do you get your formulation for this? Could you provide a link to your source?

E_T

	05-01-2003 23:31									#3
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I thought there might some useful analysis possible from the scores, which is why I keep including them in the turn reports.

I am also curious about how the scores are calculated and what we can derive from them.

	06-01-2003 00:18									#4
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quote: Originally posted by E_T Where do you get your formulation for this? Could you provide a link to your source? E_T

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...highlight=score

	06-01-2003 01:01									#5
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I'm a bit confused about ND. Didn't they have two cities? asuming they are not overlaped they should get at least 21+9+1+1=32 points per turn, being the first two land and the second ones citizens

	06-01-2003 01:18									#6
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Oliverfa,

We cannot make that assumption, the not overlapping city positionning is a credo only in Spain. Anyway, the next turns will help to clarify.

	06-01-2003 03:05									#7
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Also, perhaps ND got a city out of the goodie hut, not a settler, and the city just happens to overlap their capital...

	06-01-2003 13:36									#8
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Supersedes by post hereunder.

Last edited by DAVOUT on 06-01-2003 at 19:41

	06-01-2003 19:39									#9
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I have now put the analysis on Excel, and I found that roundings (since I start the computation from the final rounded figure) explain the most puzzling variations (cf Oliverfa remark here above).

ND
Score = 62
Basic Points Produced as per Score = 36
Score 61.5 rounded to 62 : BPPS corrected from rounding = 32
Score 62.49 rounded to 62 : BPPS corrected from rounding = 39.9
ND has 2 cities

GoW
Score = 56
Basic Points Produced as per Score = 34
Score 55.5 rounded to 56 : BPPS corrected from rounding = 30
Score 56.49 rounded to 56 : BPPS corrected from rounding = 37.9
GoW has 2 cities (including one possibly settled this turn or earned from Lux).

Vox
Score = 54
Basic Points Produced as per Score = 25.7
Score 53.5 rounded to 54 : BPPS corrected from rounding = 21.7
Score 55.49 rounded to 54 : BPPS corrected from rounding = 29.6
Vox has one city. Research in the past turns will show if he had lost one.

Lux
Score = 49
Basic Points Produced as per Score = 16.3
Score 48.5 rounded to 49 : BPPS corrected from rounding = 12.3
Score 49.49 rounded to 49 : BPPS corrected from rounding = 20.3
Lux has one city. One city level 2 should produce an absolute minimum of 22 basic points. Have they lost their capital ?

	06-01-2003 20:17									#10
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DAVOUT,

could Lux's drop be explained by Riot or Civil Disorder?

	06-01-2003 20:31									#11
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quote: Originally posted by jdjdjd DAVOUT, could Lux's drop be explained by Riot or Civil Disorder?

Civil disorder would suppress the points given by the pop (2 for happy, 1 for content or specialist); but the main part of the score is the number of tiles within the cultural border, and this is not change AFAIK by disorder.

	06-01-2003 23:13									#12
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I have collected all scores since 3500BC, but I cant find 3450BC and 3000BC. Could somebody help ?

	07-01-2003 01:09									#13
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great formula, Señor DAVOUT

If I understand correctly, that would mean that ND's second city could have hit size 2. Their first city is at size 3 and probably ready to push out another settler soon.

This is a great tool for gauging everyone's development...

	07-01-2003 01:43									#14
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT I have now put the analysis on Excel, and I found that roundings (since I start the computation from the final rounded figure) explain the most puzzling variations (cf Oliverfa remark here above).

So the posible roundings up and down can explain at least some of the variations! Very interesting. With this second analysis now I'm fully convinced that Lux Invicta has lost a city.

This is much like these logic games in which you can use the previous information to infere more information

One question, just for pure curiosity. Will this analysis be useful when the game advances? I mean, every turn there are more points acumulated, and the portion added by the current score is significatively smaller. Or will the higher number of land and citizens compensate it?

	07-01-2003 01:51									#15
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT I have collected all scores since 3500BC, but I cant find 3450BC and 3000BC. Could somebody help ?

Let's hope the people who did these turns still have them in the mai or their HDs...

	07-01-2003 02:17									#16
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT I have collected all scores since 3500BC, but I cant find 3450BC and 3000BC. Could somebody help ?

3450BC:
GS - 27
ND - 33
GoW - 33
RP - 33
Vox - 33
Lux - 27
Lego - 34

3000BC:
GS - 45
ND - 55
GoW - 50
RP - 49
Vox - 49
Lux - 46
Lego - 49

	07-01-2003 02:30									#17
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Excellent work DAVOUT, I can hardly wait to see what you get by next turn and after you have all the old data collected.

	07-01-2003 06:20									#18
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See my post in the Report Thread for a possible reason that Lux's score has changed so much

E_T

	07-01-2003 11:48									#19
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quote: Originally posted by oliverfa One question, just for pure curiosity. Will this analysis be useful when the game advances?

can't this only be useful while we dont have a full map or established embassies?

i mean, once there is a big world map available, and a good trade network, we wont NEED to analyze score to understand whos winning, we'll just see who has the most color on the map and understand, right?

	07-01-2003 11:58									#20
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT It is pretty sure that the others are doing the same kind of analysis, but in case one or two would not, it is not useful to publicize it.

well... looky here...

quote: Originally posted by Dissident Is anyone keeping track of the scores? Maybe we can average the scores out for each age and get winners for the age. But I doubt anyone is motivated enough to copy all the scores for each turn. It certainly isn't me

i think its a safe bet enough people have thought of this kind of thing.

just... are we the only guys with enough... time... to do this?

	07-01-2003 12:58									#21
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Oliverfa, Ninot,

The score analysis can be of some help in very complex situation such as a game against humans where it is quite difficult to make a correct assesment of the situation. And of course, when the necessary information will be directly available, its usefulness will close nothing. Until the end of the rexing period, it could help us choosing where to look at.

	07-01-2003 13:04									#22
	Re: Re: Score analysis Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

quote: Originally posted by Ninot just... are we the only guys with enough... time... to do this?

I have not heared that any other civ has incorporated a Watcher in its organization chart !

	08-01-2003 02:53									#23
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Señor Davout, maybe I haven't expressed myself properly. I think that the score analysis can be a very powerful tool. I was just wandering is it's utility will decline with the pass off the time.

	09-01-2003 18:55									#24
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The score shown every turn in the game reflects the situation at the end of the previous turn.

I assume that the rounding is standard, that is :
From 0.01 to 0.49 rounded to 0
From 0.50 to 0.99 rounded to 1

In order to reduce the uncertainty resulting from the rounding, and considering that the cumulative number of points and the number of basic points produced in a turn are integers, I choose, in the range of possible decimal values of the score, a value corresponding to integers for both the cumulative number of points and the numbers of basic points produced every turn. If I have a choice between several values, I choose the value which is the most in line with the previous results.

Based on the score shown on turn 27 (2710BC) reflecting the situation at the end of turn 26 (2750BC), the number of basic points produced in turn 26 is as follows :

1 34 Lego
2 33 GS and Spain
4 30 ND
5 25 GoW
6 23 Vox
7 21 Lux


The method described above can hardly results in errors exceeding 1 point.

But ?
For the last five turns, the civs produced the following numbers of basic points :

Lego : 32/34/34/34/34
GS : 23/32/32/33/33
Spain : 32/32/33/33/33
All this seems normal

ND : 33/29/33/33/30
GoW : 22/23/33/33/25
Vox : 23/33/23/33/23
Lux : 24/24/17/24/21
They have all strange variations.

	09-01-2003 19:39									#25
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT ND : 33/29/33/33/30

Well, we know from the demographics screen that in 2850 BC Neu Theben was size 3. In 2800 BC, it was size 1. What years do these numbers correspond to, Señor DAVOUT?

[edit]: what I mean is, is the "33" the most recent turn or is the "30"?

	09-01-2003 19:52									#26
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Perhaps, and this is just a maybe, we should consider that the score is rounded for clarity on screen but the program is actually still carrying the decimals.

I have noticed sometimes that the game will put a "~" in front of a score to imply it is approximately that. I know it may make it harder to calculate, but maybe, we need to consider that the game is not simply rounding the score off every turn but just doing so on screen for clarity.

	09-01-2003 20:21									#27
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Señor Davout:
One sugestion. What about keeping the full punctuation instead of dividing by 3 to keep calculations more acurated? let's take that a content citizen and a tile give 3 points instead of 2, and a happy citizen 6 instead of 1. Unless you are already doing that and just dividing at the end to post the result.

Señor Ruby_Maser:
Maybe I'm wrong but i was thinking this ~ means tha the player still hasn't send their orders to be played.

Anyway, the results of that analysis look really interesting

	09-01-2003 20:51									#28
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quote: Originally posted by ruby_maser Well, we know from the demographics screen that in 2850 BC Neu Theben was size 3. In 2800 BC, it was size 1. What years do these numbers correspond to, Señor DAVOUT? [edit]: what I mean is, is the "33" the most recent turn or is the "30"?

30 is the most recent turn (2750).

	09-01-2003 20:55									#29
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quote: Originally posted by ruby_maser Perhaps, and this is just a maybe, we should consider that the score is rounded for clarity on screen but the program is actually still carrying the decimals. I have noticed sometimes that the game will put a "~" in front of a score to imply it is approximately that. I know it may make it harder to calculate, but maybe, we need to consider that the game is not simply rounding the score off every turn but just doing so on screen for clarity.

Definitely, I am quite sure that the programme is carrying the decimals, it why the error cannot be bigger; but we only know what is on the screen for all the civ, except us.

	09-01-2003 20:55									#30
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quote: Originally posted by oliverfa Señor Ruby_Maser: Maybe I'm wrong but i was thinking this ~ means tha the player still hasn't send their orders to be played.

I don't see how this could be so, though, because wouldn't we see it every turn then? IIRC, it only happens every once in awhile and randomly.