11-01-2003 02:17									#1
	Turn 30 Support Apolyton

To be edited by the leaders of the Scholia.

Status:
- We possess 21 gold and are making 11 this turn.
- Research of Bronze Working has been halted.
- We offered The Wheel to VC.

Urgent questions:
Shall we withdraw our scouts if they withdraw theirs?

Military:
- Depends on their action and on our strategy in this matter, see urgent questions.

Economy:
- EotS grows to size 4. 3 laborers will be set to irrigated floodplains, one on irrigated fur.
- Hurricane switches to the other irrigated fur.
- Worker finishes irrigation and starts to build road.
- If the trade is accepted, switch science to Alphabet, if not, continue to research Bronze Working. In both cases, set science to 100%.
- Doublecheck that we don't need to use the luxury slider. (Okay, so I'm being paranoid.)

Diplomacy:
- Deal The Wheel for Bronze Working to be accepted, if they agree on the later deal Alphabet for Iron Working.

Your turn!

Last edited by nbarclay on 11-01-2003 at 04:54

	11-01-2003 03:01									#2
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Do we need luxury spending to keep EotS happy?

The tech deal is the big question. Well, that and whether or not Tim & Willy really turn around.

-Arrian

	11-01-2003 03:02									#3
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Regarding the scouts, I'd wait for them to ask us to withdraw our scouts strictly. When they do, we can begin discussing the border line between our civs (thereby buying some more time and stalling Vox's growth). Furthermore, I'd expect Vox's own scouts to withdraw at least as far as to the North of the jungle belt before we move any of our scouts away from the Isthmus.

	11-01-2003 03:08									#4
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Do we need luxury spending to keep EotS happy?

No, the game difficulty has in a wondersome way dropped. It seems to be Warlord or something like that. If loading it SP mode, it says Regent, but in this case we should have only 2 content citizens. I moved Gronk out and back in EotS, when the road was ready. When he was outside, all 3 citizens were content. Must be Warlord, at most.

PTW is far from being ready . It's these little issues that spoil the game a lot. There is no way to load a game safely. You can always screw it, no matter what you do.

	11-01-2003 03:24									#5
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Ah, I see.

How silly.

So be it.

-Arrian

	11-01-2003 04:51									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph No, the game difficulty has in a wondersome way dropped. It seems to be Warlord or something like that. If loading it SP mode, it says Regent, but in this case we should have only 2 content citizens. I moved Gronk out and back in EotS, when the road was ready. When he was outside, all 3 citizens were content. Must be Warlord, at most.

If it's not Regent, I bet it's all the way down to Chieftain. That's what happened in the Euro-PBEM game, anyhow. With one MP, EotS may not face happiness problems for over a millennium, leaving us more commerce for science. Also, happiness in #3 (any good names for a settler pump?) won't be nearly the issue I was afraid it might.

Conclusion: I bet we'll be the big benificiaries of this glitch, at least for quite some time.

Nathan

Edit: How about Cyclone for #3?

	11-01-2003 05:41									#7
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I think our scouts should either remain where they are or push northward. Unless they specifically ask us to not to, there is no reason for us to halt their progress.

Our demands were that Vox not go southward, right? So they will probably return to the demarcation line.

In the meantime, our scouts can follow them back a ways...

	11-01-2003 05:46									#8
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Good to see you around Meshelic. I'm going to bed now. But I don't think we get the turn soon.

	11-01-2003 06:02									#9
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We definitely want to keep shadowing Tim and Willy until we can set up a watch they can't get past (at least in my opinion), but that's not the question Sir Ralph was asking. The big question is that Vox wants us to withdraw Grog and Slash from so close to the chokepoint. Do we go ahead and do it?

I like the idea of keeping a strong early warning system in place, but if we do it, we have to let Vox do it too or we're the hypocrites. My inclination is to suggest that we move back to the mountain a bit to the southeast and let Vox set up a watch position using the mountain Willy was on earlier and another mountain to Tim's southeast. That way both sides could see any invasion force a long way away, giving us both the security to focus more heavily on economic growth (and benefitting us both relative to the other teams). Of course as the nations expand, the forward observers would have to back up to new positions.

Nathan

	11-01-2003 06:54									#10
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Looking back at the map, in my proposal, Tim's lookout position would be 3-6 from where he is now, and Willy's would be 9 from where he is now. Our initial lookout position would be 2-2 from where Slash is.

It also occurs to me that if they don't respond to our trade proposal until during or after their turn, starting to withdraw Grog and Slash as they requested would very possibly edge them closer to accepting the deal. Toward that end, moving Grog 3 and Slash 2 would be inoffensive combination possible. But keep in mind that starting to withdraw them when we want something and then moving them back or setting up a blockade after the agreement is signed could easily (and, I think, legitimately) be viewed as an act of betrayal.

Nathan

	11-01-2003 07:02									#11
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I didn't read their message so that we should need to withdraw, so why don't you ask them to start withdrawing theirs, and we'll meet them half way. They haven't seen all our land yet, so why don't we tell them they were only a few tiles away from our capital, and if they want us to move Grog, they will need to move back their scouts farther then the first mountain they encounter. After all, atm they are closer to our borders then we are to theirs. As long as that doesn't change, keep our scouts in their 'territory'.

DeepO

	11-01-2003 07:23									#12
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They have already said they will withdraw theirs, at least back to wherever the "Sierra Centralis" refers to. And they said, "More importantly, given our commitment to stopping all southerly exploration, and pulling our explorers back, it would be greatly appreciated if Gathering Storm could do the same." Not a demand, but definitely a clear request.

Actually, I recalculated, and my proposed positions for Tim and Willy would justify leaving at least one of our warriors in place. Tim would be at least as close to our capital as Grog or Slash would be to theirs. That would provide maximum security on both sides against an invasion of any significant size and would maintain a spirit of reciprocity that should help future relations.

Nathan

	11-01-2003 15:52									#13
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Vox sent back an acceptance with conditions attached. See the ambassador's office thread for their message and the related comments thread for my proposed response.

Nathan

	11-01-2003 16:02									#14
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Good. I will set the research to Alphabet then and not halt it for one more turn, if the in-game trade deal is accepted. Seems it paid off, that I by purpose waited so long to send the turn.

	11-01-2003 16:07									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph Good. I will set the research to Alphabet then and not halt it for one more turn, if the in-game trade deal is accepted. Seems it paid off, that I by purpose waited so long to send the turn.

I don't think we're ready for that yet because I'm not sure the assurances we can provide at this point match the assurances they want. They want a commitment to peace from us, and talk lately has been about our wiping them out as soon as a good time comes.

Edit: I'm trying to strike a middle ground, offering assurances that we want peace at least for a long time to come but indicating that we can't develop a consensus to commit to a permanent peace in the time available.

Nathan

	11-01-2003 16:21									#16
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They can not expect commitment of peace for the whole game in return for a single trade deal. However, a commitment, that covers a certain amount of turns (say 40, or 50) or even the ancient age (nobody attacks, if the other part is still in the ancient age), could get a consensus.

Perhaps we should propose them a trade agreement like this: Each trade of advances, regardless if military techs or not, means automatically a peace commitment for the next 20 turns. So if they want to be safe for longer, they just could trade with us again. On the other hand, if one side rejects an obviously acceptable trade (equal beakers, mandantory techs, no preresearch), this will give the other side a hint about arising hostility and they will have time to raise their defenses.

	11-01-2003 16:34									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph They can not expect commitment of peace for the whole game in return for a single trade deal. However, a commitment, that covers a certain amount of turns (say 40, or 50) or even the ancient age (nobody attacks, if the other part is still in the ancient age), could get a consensus. Perhaps we should propose them a trade agreement like this: Each trade of advances, regardless if military techs or not, means automatically a peace commitment for the next 20 turns. So if they want to be safe for longer, they just could trade with us again. On the other hand, if one side rejects an obviously acceptable trade (equal beakers, mandantory techs, no preresearch), this will give the other side a hint about arising hostility and they will have time to raise their defenses.

I think this type of proposal strikes way too much of a "trade with us or else" tone, especially for this early in the game when we don't really have anything to back it up with. In effect, you're having us commit extortion.

Have you read their message or my proposed response yet? If not, please do so.

Nathan

	11-01-2003 16:43									#18
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I have read it. In effect, they are saying "Make peace forever or we won't trade". Or do I see this wrong? This is also a kind of extortion.

	11-01-2003 16:56									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Ralph I have read it. In effect, they are saying "Make peace forever or we won't trade". Or do I see this wrong? This is also a kind of extortion.

Agreed, although I can hardly fault them for the attempt given their starting position. Can you?

But I think the kind of explicit extortion based on military force, not just the withholding of trades, that you propose would be an enormous turn-off. Even if they go along with our proposal in the short term, they would be a ready-made ally for anyone who wants to invade us, and we would never dare turn our backs on them in the slightest when invading someone else either.

What I want to do is offer them as much of what they want as we reasonably can, and do so in a way that makes it hard for them to avoid facing a lot of the blame for our inability to offer more. That sets the stage for a possibility of a truly positive long-term relationship without giving up a promise of game-long peace.

Nathan

	11-01-2003 17:15									#20
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I think a limited commitment of peace will do it. As you already stated in your prepared response, we could research both techs too within a couple of turns, and given a bad will from our side, they wouldn't be safe for the entire game either if they denied the deal.

There are no peace and friendship agreements "forever". Neither in games nor in real politics. They are all time limited. VC can not blame us to have broken a treaty, made in the stone age, if we decide to attack them with tanks. Adjust time up, say, to 40 turns, or if you want, the entire ancient age (although this would be too expensive for a single deal). This is more than enough.

Note also, that a peace commitment would allow them all ways of aggressive settling without having to fear a response. What would you say if they plopped a city on our incense? The AI would do it. Don't say that it would be an economically mistake in the present. With a peace commitment from our side, this would matter less. And it would pay on the long run.

	11-01-2003 17:38									#21
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What advantages do you see to setting a specific duration over the open-ended approach I took? If I were Vox, I'd tend to read a specific endpoint almost as a plan for GS to attack sometime not too long after that endpoint. That directly undercuts the idea that the trade is an investment in good relations.

And from a GS perspective, the reative vaguenes (edit: of an open-ended commitment) makes dirty tricks a lot more difficult. If the their behavior becomes so outrageous as to outweigh our preference for peaceful expansion, we aren't breaking a deal if we declare war.

Nathan

Last edited by nbarclay on 11-01-2003 at 17:48

	11-01-2003 17:53									#22
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You have promised nothing, and they will see that as a rejection of their proposal. To guarantee, that we hope we can coexist peacefully, means nothing. We could attack the next turn and say, "we hoped, but it was just not meant to be". What I'm proposing, is a time limited peace treaty, without any "could, maybe, and hope".

	11-01-2003 18:00									#23
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I agree on both opinions here... maybe just explaining the dillema to them would be good? e.g. tell them:
'we would like to agree to an indefinate peace treaty, but we can't. We have agreed to play honorably, so it would mean we wouldn't be allowed to attack you for the remaining of the game. While we aren't planning on doing so, we can't commit to such a deal at this instance in time, I hope you understand. However, we could propose a non-aggresion deal for a limited period, but fear that you might see it as a deadline, after which hostilities will erupt... we don't want that either, as we would like to stay peaceful, but simply cannot promise to remain so until the end of times.'

DeepO

	11-01-2003 18:08									#24
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From my draft:

quote: That said, however, we of Gathering Storm can guarantee you of two things. First, it is our great hope to avoid even the hint of warfare for a long time to come. We have far too much to do settling cities and building infrastructure to want to waste our resources fighting. And second, our interest in obtaining Iron Working so early is purely defensive in nature. Were it not for defensive concerns, especially concerns about the power of your immortals, our focus would be entirely on peaceful lines of research. But you do have immortals (or at least the basic technology needed to build them), and in light of the recent tensions, we regard the ability to build swordsmen as an important counterweight.

No offense intended, but if you can't read this as a promise of a fairly long period of peace as long as they don't provoke us into a fight we'd rather not have, you need your eyes checked.

	11-01-2003 18:10									#25
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quote: Originally posted by DeepO I agree on both opinions here... maybe just explaining the dillema to them would be good? e.g. tell them: 'we would like to agree to an indefinate peace treaty, but we can't. We have agreed to play honorably, so it would mean we wouldn't be allowed to attack you for the remaining of the game. While we aren't planning on doing so, we can't commit to such a deal at this instance in time, I hope you understand. However, we could propose a non-aggresion deal for a limited period, but fear that you might see it as a deadline, after which hostilities will erupt... we don't want that either, as we would like to stay peaceful, but simply cannot promise to remain so until the end of times.'

Good angle, DeepO. I'll incorporate a variant into my draft.

	11-01-2003 18:35									#26
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Paragraph added after the "And second..." paragraph:

quote: (If you would feel more comfortable with some specific duration attached to our promise of peace, that could be arranged as long as the duration is reasonable and there are reasonable protections for each side's legitimate interests. But durations imply endings, and I much prefer to view this as merely a beginning.)

	11-01-2003 19:41									#27
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay but if you can't read this as a promise of a fairly long period of peace as long as they don't provoke us into a fight we'd rather not have, you need your eyes checked.

Yes. Perhaps I need my eyes checked. I still can't.

	11-01-2003 21:25									#28
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Is the message acceptable with the latest changes? I was up all night last night, and I really need to get to bed. (I lay down for a while and ended up drifting off to sleep for an hour or two, but I really need more than that.)

Nathan

	11-01-2003 21:44									#29
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I accept it, and from the GS point of view the first version was acceptable as well, but somehow doubt, that VC will agree on that. My concern is, that I don't want to delay the trade deal and our further research. I suppose they have accepted the deal in their turn, and as far as I can see, you want me to reject it, or otherwise you would not have opposed to my proposal to switch science to Alphabet.

	11-01-2003 22:01									#30
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The problem is that their acceptance of the full two-stage deal seems to hinge on our commitment to peace, and I don't like the idea of accepting the first stage of the deal in-game only to have the second stage fall through because we aren't willing to give them as strong a promise as they require. If the second stage falls through with us already invested in researching Alphabet, that would leave a truly horrible mess from the perspective of us wanting to make sure they don't have a shot at an immortal rush.

Nathan