13-03-2003 02:01									#211
	Inflate your Upload Space

quote: Originally posted by DanS but I don't see how anyone could credibly come up with a figure of .5% per annum additional growth I'll try to find more backup for these calculations. I believe the .5% per annum is how they derive the expected bump up in equities prices as well--i.e., discount .5% additional growth per annum with a suitable discount rate to get a 9% increase in equities prices.

If equity prices go up it wont be because of growth it will because of increase demand for equity. Either people are going to make business investments or they are going to invest in something else. The tax cuts could improve the equities market and not contribute anything to the economy directly.

quote: Originally posted by DanS On another topic, it's pretty amazing how bad the CAC40 and DAX have been doing. Here's the DAX... Does this suggest that the S&P/FTSE are trailing CAC40/DAX and still have a ways to go on the downside? It's amazing to me that Germany and France aren't in a depression. Are these markets really that small? Or have we learned our lessons sufficiently well that a 70% plummet in equities prices doesn't create instability?

Interesting. I didn't know these markets had done so poorly. I think there is a wealth effect in these countries, but maybe not as much as in the US.

	13-03-2003 02:04									#212
	Suffering from ads?

quote: Originally posted by DanS On another topic, it's pretty amazing how bad the CAC40 and DAX have been doing. Here's the DAX...

Did you notice that price levels have only gone back to 94' levels.

	27-03-2003 15:45									#213
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

So Congress injects some sense into the whole stupid enormous £700+ Billion tax cut shenanigan.

Ari Fleischer's comment on the intervention: “The more they shrink the tax cut, the harder it will be for people to find work, because the economy won’t grow as fast,”

Republicans say that the tax cut would kick-start the economy, boost government revenues and eventually shrink federal budget deficits.

I can see why Krugman gets so worked up in his column.

Last edited by DrSpike on 27-03-2003 at 21:05

	27-03-2003 20:17									#214
	Suffering from ads?

This tax discussion will continue without much grist until we get some semblance of a final cost for the war. These moves are just tactical preparations for the conference committee, which will end up writing the bill. It will end up being a compromise, as this process always does.

	31-03-2003 21:03									#215
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Good Gawd. DAX down 7.68% since the beginning of the war. CAC down 7.73%. War Wimps!

	31-03-2003 22:12									#216
	Increase Your PM Length

War realists.

	18-04-2003 21:04									#217
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

Back to the real world of global economics...

Germany is on the brink of losing their AAA bond rating.

Bond yields in the US continue to hover at generational lows.

The US corporate bond risk premium has declined significantly from historical wides.

Commercial paper issuance is back to the upswing.

Sten's company gets folded into an affiliate and everyone has to find a new job!

Just the usual stuff.

	21-04-2003 19:38									#218
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Over the weekend I heard two analysts starting to talk about a growth stock rally.

According to Morningstar, year to date,
US Growth Stocks +5%
US Core Stocks +1%
US Value Stocks -3%

Has all the air finally been let out of growth stocks?
Or do buyers have short memories?
And how much will growth stocks get hammered when interest rates rise from historical lows?

	21-04-2003 21:29									#219
	Tired of ads?

Why is Germany on the brink of losing its AAA? Aggregate state debt doesn't seem overly burdensome (~60% of economy). Is it just that growth is in the crapper?

p.s. It's nice to hear about normal stuff again after the war.

Last edited by DanS on 21-04-2003 at 22:17

	21-04-2003 21:45									#220
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

.

	26-04-2003 05:59									#221
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by DanS Why is Germany on the brink of losing its AAA? Aggregate state debt doesn't seem overly burdensome (~60% of economy). Is it just that growth is in the crapper? p.s. It's nice to hear about normal stuff again after the war.

Haven't really read into it but I assume it's the (projected) budget deficit combined with bleak growth forecasts and disappointment with pension reform that's behind it.

On a sidenote, who believes the European Stability and Growth Pact is suffocating economic growth?

	26-04-2003 10:21									#222
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Originally posted by DanS .

Yep

	24-05-2003 19:48									#223
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

I believe it's not the ESGP, but rather lack of strauctural reform that's killing growth in Europe.

	24-05-2003 21:03									#224
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Do you have some examples of reforms that would have high immediate payback?

	24-05-2003 21:03									#225
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by Saras I believe it's not the ESGP, but rather lack of strauctural reform that's killing growth in Europe.

What!?!? You think the growth of the economy occurs as a result of work and projects and free markets? Not central bank shenanigans?

	24-05-2003 21:06									#226
	Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by DanS Do you have some examples of reforms that would have high immediate payback?

I think there is a problem looking for immediate paybacks from structural changes. A structural change that encourages investment or work or whatever will only have wealth creation effects after some time has been spent on the projects. No? Of course, there might be an immediate stock market jump. So equity holders might get richer quick. But for the average joe, it would take a while for his per capita income to go up. No?

	24-05-2003 21:06									#227
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by Colon On a sidenote, who believes the European Stability and Growth Pact is suffocating economic growth?

I think it's causing some trouble in the short run.

	24-05-2003 21:15									#228
	Full PM-box? Change here!

A structural change that encourages investment or work or whatever will only have wealth creation effects after some time has been spent on the projects.

Politicians have to make priorities based on a limited amount of political capital that they have. If everyone can reap some benefits early, the whole package of reforms can be run through over time.

I'm just interested in knowing where the action is on this.

	24-05-2003 21:23									#229
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Good point. Some stimulus could eliminate some of the drag from the reforms.

	24-05-2003 22:39									#230
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Originally posted by DanS A structural change that encourages investment or work or whatever will only have wealth creation effects after some time has been spent on the projects. Politicians have to make priorities based on a limited amount of political capital that they have. If everyone can reap some benefits early, the whole package of reforms can be run through over time. I'm just interested in knowing where the action is on this.

I think that's just wishful thinking. Before they even get the chance to start utilising the capital for structural reforms they have to deal with elections coming up or have they shifted their focus to another issue. Or the short-term fix gives the impression the structural problem has disappeared, which means there's even less desire to implement structural reform.
I don't think there's an overriding necessity to boost growth in the short run either. (sometimes at expense of growth in the long run) It's not because you can't lift growth by a percentage of GDP the following year, that you're going to end up in a depression.

	24-05-2003 22:42									#231
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Saras I believe it's not the ESGP, but rather lack of strauctural reform that's killing growth in Europe.

I doubt it, even the posterchild of pseudoliberalism, the UK, isn't doing too great. Even less so if you discount for the housing bubble.

Seems more like the tech bubble created a worse hangover than expected.

quote: Originally posted by GP What!?!? You think the growth of the economy occurs as a result of work and projects and free markets? Not central bank shenanigans?

Greenspan would be shocked, SHOCKED by that pesky Lithuanian.

	24-05-2003 22:43									#232
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Before they even get the chance to start utilising the capital for structural reforms they have to deal with elections coming up or have they shifted their focus to another issue. Or short-term fix creates the impression the structural problem has disappeared, which means there's even less desire to implement reform.

This is a really odd way of looking at it, even if it is an accurate picture. You would only have this problem if the politicians aren't true believers in the policies that they're espousing. A malaise of cynicism.

Last edited by DanS on 24-05-2003 at 22:51

	24-05-2003 23:00									#233
	Increase the size of your Attachments

"A malaise of cynicism."

Also known as realism.

	24-05-2003 23:07									#234
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by DanS This is a really odd way of looking at it, even if it is an accurate picture. You would only have this problem if the politicians aren't true believers in the policies that they're espousing.

Events, my friend, events. If Bush had kept the promises he made in his election campaign the US wouldn't have been bombing the Taliban, let alone invading Iraq and attempting to reshape the Middle East. 9/11 forced him to run an activist foreign policy and I think he's flexible enough to believe in it.
I'm willing to believe many to most politicians try whatever they can to realise their ideals. It's just that they also have compromise to get the necessary support while there's only a limited amount of time one has. A politician also has to be an administrator, sometimes implementing policies that aren't his or which he doesn't fully support. (unless he's intellectually flexible - and I think many are)

Back to the ESGP: it doesn't seem all that bad if it means that Schröder doesn't have any other option but to forgo short-term fixes and push through structural reforms.

	24-05-2003 23:08									#235
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

You DanSed again!

	24-05-2003 23:16									#236
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

quote: Originally posted by Colon Back to the ESGP: it doesn't seem all that bad if it means that Schröder doesn't have any other option but to forgo short-term fixes and push through structural reforms.

Sounds like you just want to send the economy to a recession. That will make the reforms look responsible and I can't see that they will stick.

	24-05-2003 23:19									#237
	Full PM-box? Change here!

If Bush had kept the promises he made in his election campaign the US wouldn't have been bombing the Taliban, let alone invading Iraq and attempting to reshape the Middle East. 9/11 forced him to run an activist foreign policy and I think he's flexible enough to believe in it.

Well, there you have it. He's flexible enough to believe in it, and you would never expect him to go back on it or half-ass it, right? He went in to Afghanistan to build credibility for a wider war. We got some immediate anti-terrorism benefits from it and now our demarches are more respected.

So why would you expect the leaders of the Euro-zone to half-ass reform overall, unless you think they don't believe in the policies they're putting out?

	24-05-2003 23:28									#238
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by DanS Well, there you have it. He's flexible enough to believe in it, and you would never expect him to go back on it or half-ass it, right? He went in to Afghanistan to build credibility for a wider war. And we got some immediate anti-terrorism benefits from it.

Isn't he being half-assed now? Ok, he acted vigorously in Afghanistan and Iraq, but the treatment to Saudi Arabia, North Korea and especially Pakistan has been completely different. Bush can't go much further beyond cooling down relations and applying diplomatic pressure because circumstances force him to it.

quote: So why would you expect the leaders of the Euro-zone to half-ass it, unless you think they don't believe in what the policies they're putting out?

I didn't say I expect them to half-ass, I was reacting to your statement that short-term fixes have primacy.

	24-05-2003 23:38									#239
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

I didn't say that the fixes should be short-term. Rather, the highest priority should go to those that have the fastest positive impact.

Why is there controversy about my question? It seems so simple!

Isn't he being half-assed now?

Are you on crack? Bush has threatened Syria with regime change, proposed a free trade area of the Middle East, introduced a major peace initiative, made Iran fess up about holding al Qaeda terrorists, publicly accused Saudi Arabia of ignoring explicit warnings about terrorism, and announced the movement of all US troops from Saudi Arabia. All within the timespan of less than two months!

Edit: On North Korea, he has successfully realigned US and Japanese interests on the issue, and gone a long way to doing so with South Korea and China. This administration has been busy!

Last edited by DanS on 24-05-2003 at 23:45

	25-05-2003 00:02									#240
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by DanS I didn't say that the fixes should be short-term. Rather, the highest priority should go to those that have the fastest positive impact.[quote] Ok, I misunderstood. [quote]Why is there controversy about my question? It seems so simple

What controversy? And I don't think you ever say anything simple.

quote: Are you on crack? Bush has threatened Syria with regime change, proposed a free trade area of the Middle East, introduced a major peace initiative, made Iran fess up about holding al Qaeda terrorists, publicly accused Saudi Arabia of ignoring explicit warnings about terrorism, and announced the movement of all US troops from Saudi Arabia. All within the timespan of less than two months!

Don't your examples confirm what I'm saying? He treathens Syria with regime change because he can, he can't do that with Saudi Arabia or Pakistan. (certainly not to the same extent) It's all still cooling down relations and applying diplomatic pressure, just as I said. (except of that free trade area thingy but I doubt it's much more than a diplomatic gesture)

What I'm saying is just as simple as what you are saying: policies are only partly formed by the beliefs of those who implement it.