23-01-2003 10:36									#1
	Poll: Bush Down; Abortion Restrictions Supported Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Interesting poll data. Bush is down @ 59% (welcome back to mortality). Gulf War II is less popular @ 57%, but is still much higher than at this point in the process in '91 (43%, IIRC).

The most interesting stuff for me was the abortion polls. A strong majority @ 57% now support restricting abortion on demand. See Question #32. A full 43% disapprove of Roe.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-sr.../data012103.htm

	23-01-2003 11:08									#2
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Good thread

Only 23% favour abortion on demand.

31. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1973 that a woman can have an abortion if she wants one at any time during the first three months of pregnancy. Do you favor or oppose that ruling?

This wording will increase the number in favour of Roe v Wade because Roe technically permits abortions for the first 6 months not 9. To still have 43% against is very high. 43 percent is very close to the 42 percent supporting restriction of abortion.

Abortion done after the first six months of pregnancy only has 11 percent support, despite 23 percent favouring abortion on demand, or 23 percent favouring partial-birth abortion.



How do you make sense of that? Why are the six month abortion supporters so few?

	23-01-2003 11:19									#3
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Yes, there are other contradictions as well. The net who say abortion should be legal in most cases stands 57%, but then 57% also say "[w]hen the woman is not married and does not want the baby", it should be illegal.

	23-01-2003 12:32									#4
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Odd.

Any ideas on why the polling variations come about?
Or are there just some very confused people out there?

	23-01-2003 12:39									#5
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quote: Originally posted by obiwan18 Good thread Only 23% favour abortion on demand. 31. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1973 that a woman can have an abortion if she wants one at any time during the first three months of pregnancy. Do you favor or oppose that ruling? This wording will increase the number in favour of Roe v Wade because Roe technically permits abortions for the first 6 months not 9.

The standards are different, though - Roe leaves open the possibility that advances in medical technology would push the window of viability back before six months, and if that happens, then the recognized state interest in the welfare of the fetus moves as well.

	23-01-2003 12:49									#6
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They had an article in the Post about this the other day. They say medical tech is pushing 3 months.

I don't have a good idea about the probability of success, etc.

	23-01-2003 12:53									#7
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MtG, the question is really misleading, as people will assume that this is the status quo in the US. If it were, abortions beyond 21 weeks would be illegal.

The important case is Doe v. Bolton. Here, threat to the health of the mother is extended to emotional as well as physical well-being so that the state's interest in the fetus never enters the equation.

That would be a better question, IMHO,

"Do you support Doe v. Bolton, allowing pregnant women access to abortion throughout nine months for a threat to the woman's physical and emotional health?"

Edit:

DanS, 3 months? That is news to me. Do you have the link?

	23-01-2003 13:51									#8
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"This wording will increase the number in favour of Roe v Wade because Roe technically permits abortions for the first 6 months..."

IIRC Roe v Wade allows to limit abortion to certain indications (danger to health, rape, etc) after the first 3 months. In the last trimester they can ban abortions except for protecting the life/health of the mother, roughly.

Btw, one can "oppose the ruling" while agreeing with the policy it sets out.

	23-01-2003 14:05									#9
	Re: Poll: Bush Down; Abortion Restrictions Supported Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by DanS Interesting poll data. Bush is down @ 59% (welcome back to mortality). Gulf War II is less popular @ 57%, but is still much higher than at this point in the process in '91 (43%, IIRC).

Dubya got a halo due to 9-11 but it is wearing off. His rhetorics on Gulf War II has started grating on a lot of people. Bush Sr. didn't have the halo.

Also, the anti-war protests in the US have been huge, they were described as the biggest ones after Vietnam.

	23-01-2003 15:08									#10
	Re: Poll: Bush Down; Abortion Restrictions Supported Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by DanS Interesting poll data. Bush is down @ 59% (welcome back to mortality). Gulf War II is less popular @ 57%, but is still much higher than at this point in the process in '91 (43%, IIRC).

But declining, declining declining. And that number assumes you can get the SC to go along, IIRC...

	23-01-2003 17:07									#11
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"How do you make sense of that? Why are the six month abortion supporters so few?"

Because 6 month fetuses are viable, which makes them human, which makes abortion at that stage murder. You have to ask???

Psychology might be the key, especially given the wording of the question:

quote: In late-term procedures known as dilation and extraction, or partial-birth abortions.

"Procedures" implies, to the non-medical among us, medical necessity. I'm thinking that had the question NOT used the word procedures and just said "Partial Birth Abortions", the number would be lower.

	23-01-2003 20:13									#12
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The support for the war is based on a lot of unrealistic assumptions (few casualties, very successful very quick). The longer you assume the war will last, the more support declines. Take away U.N. support, it drops below 50% dramatically. CNN did a poll yesterday about France and Germany's lack of support, and 65% said that we shouldn't attack without their support. If the war gets bloody and we see body bags coming home, you can bet it's going to get really nasty for Bush.

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has his job approval rating down to 54%, with 40% disapproving. Only 35% backed his economic stimulus package, which is seen as a big kickback to the wealthy.

	23-01-2003 20:16									#13
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Ban it full stop.

	23-01-2003 20:16									#14
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I'm not surprised you feel that way, being our resident misogynist and all...

	23-01-2003 20:24									#15
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Abortion is a human matter, not just a female one.

	23-01-2003 20:40									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Boddington's Abortion is a human matter, not just a female one.

You know as little about human matters as you do about female ones.

	23-01-2003 20:48									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov If the war gets bloody and we see body bags coming home, you can bet it's going to get really nasty for Bush.

I'm wondering what happens if the war goes smoothly. Will Bush ride another wave of nationalism, or will it be of limited effect on his ratings? (Karl Rove's view on this will decide about war and peace )

	23-01-2003 21:13									#18
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Are you all for abortion on demand, people?

	23-01-2003 21:21									#19
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Yes.

	23-01-2003 21:21									#20
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And sometimes even without demand.

	23-01-2003 22:08									#21
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No.

1st 3 months is OK, then it gets a little hazy from there...

	23-01-2003 22:14									#22
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I'm fine with the first 5-6 months, no matter how much further medical science is able to push viability (well, depending on techniques that have to be used)...

	23-01-2003 22:29									#23
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quote: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1973 that a woman can have an abortion if she wants one at any time during the first three months of pregnancy. Do you favor or oppose that ruling?

The 1973 matter is not controlling anymore. Roe has been changed by Planned Parenthood v. Casey. The law of the land is that of a undue burden test, rather than the trimester framework, should be used in evaluating abortion restrictions before viability.

	24-01-2003 01:28									#24
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Hmm, looks like I agree with Bodds.

Abortion should be legal only when the mother's life is in danger, in cases such as an ectopic pregnancy.

Does this make me a misogynist?

quote: The law of the land is that of a undue burden test, rather than the trimester framework, should be used in evaluating abortion restrictions before viability.

Imran,
'Undue burden' is sophistry. Are there any cases where the interests of the state to protect the unborn can outweigh the interests of the mother in this balancing test?

	24-01-2003 02:27									#25
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quote: Originally posted by obiwan18 Does this make me a misogynist?

Yes.

	24-01-2003 02:34									#26
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler I'm wondering what happens if the war goes smoothly. Will Bush ride another wave of nationalism, or will it be of limited effect on his ratings?

He'll likely be untouchable in 04 if he can keep the economy from getting worse if the war goes well.

	24-01-2003 03:17									#27
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quote: 'Undue burden' is sophistry. Are there any cases where the interests of the state to protect the unborn can outweigh the interests of the mother in this balancing test?

The 'undue burden' test was held up in order to allow states (like Pennsylvania at the time) to have restrictions such as parental notification and waiting periods for abortions. But restrictions CANNOT take away the right to an abortion before viability.

I was just pointing out that the trimester framework doesn't apply so any argument that says it is ok in the 1st trimester (etc.) is a flawed argument.

	24-01-2003 04:13									#28
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One thing about the war numbers, I think they're almost irrelevant at this point, considering that in the future they will be almost entirely contingent on how the war goes. Also, the contingent support (only with allies, etc.) is almost irrelevant too--approval will be decided after the fact.

	24-01-2003 04:22									#29
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That's a pretty feeble restriction Imran. The undue burden does not even restrict abortions after viability, so long as one can find abortion doctors willing to perform them.

	24-01-2003 08:15									#30
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc He'll likely be untouchable in 04 if he can keep the economy from getting worse if the war goes well.

That's what his father thought in 92.