28-01-2003 15:21									#31
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: 1. What for? To project Chinese power, something that isn't possible right now.

Right now, the PRC takes a defensive strategy, so there is no need for these.

quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: 2. Who knows? Military experts, who say no.

quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten quote: 3. Russian hardware is excellent value. True, but Russian equipment can't compete with the top-of-the-line ships fielded by the US (and to a lesser extent) Taiwan and Japan.

That's a pretty broad stroke with nothing to back it up.

	28-01-2003 15:25									#32
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quote: That's a pretty broad stroke with nothing to back it up.

You should try reading on the subject. Even Chinese experts agree that China will be technologically inferior to the United States for decades to come...

	28-01-2003 16:33									#33
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Ah yes, says the omniscient Mr Floyd.

CHINA!!! CHINA!!! CHINA!!!


Keep laughting Yanks. Someday they'll kick your as$es.
....easily.

	28-01-2003 16:42									#34
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A lot of CIA analysts have said that China will be involved in a Cold War with the US in the next 20 years. Could this be the start?

	28-01-2003 17:42									#35
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Any one who knows anything about the Chinese People's Army Air Force knows how under funded and out of date all of it's aircraft and weapon systems are. Sure, they're making a big push for modernization but just compare the current and projected military budgets of the U.S., Japan, the major EU powers, South Korea, and China and you'll see China's spending is on the bottom.

It's rising fast but if the Germans & French can't afford a decent next generation fighter (the Eurofighter just catches up to the F-15 and the F-22 will be a generation ahead) then the Chinese certainly won't be able to pay for one. The future of China's air force for the next twenty years is going to be domestically made modified versions of Russian aircraft. They are also likely to try to get into collborative new fighter development with countries such as Russia but you're not going to see in true technological firsts coming out of it.

	28-01-2003 17:46									#36
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quote: Keep laughting Yanks. Someday they'll kick your as$es. ....easily.

China's a bigger threat to Russia than it is to the United States. Keep laughing Russkie; you'll be a Chinese citizen someday.

	28-01-2003 17:55									#37
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quote: Ah yes, says the omniscient Mr Floyd.

Sorry, but the PLAN is ****, and everyone knows this. It has a bunch of obsolete submarines, an SSBN that is so loud it defeats the purpose of having it, and a motley collection of aging destroyers and frigates and missile boats.

Yes, the Russian hardware you have, such as the Sovremmnys, are decent, but still not up to par with the USN.

But I was mainly talking about amphibious transport - you barely have any, and certainly not enough to force an assault on a nation (yes, nation, and if you disagree see what happens if you try to "deploy troops" to "your own province" ) as well-armed as Taiwan.

	28-01-2003 17:58									#38
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quote: Keep laughting Yanks. Someday they'll kick your as$es.

Then they'll do what the Soviet Union was never able to do

If you want to say China will be more powerful 100 years from now, or 50, that's fine. Maybe, maybe not - no one can say. Personally, I hope that they are, because that would mean the US scaled down military spending drastically, which is a good thing.

But right now, and for the immediate future, China would have no chance in a war against the US.

	28-01-2003 19:26									#39
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Unfortunately, China does not have access to the alien technology that the US used to develop its stealth planes.

	28-01-2003 19:50									#40
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten China's a bigger threat to Russia than it is to the United States.

And surely you can prove this claim? You know, hostile nations usually don't involved in military cooperation of such scale as cooperation between Russia and China.
I don’t know why you guys are so sure about hostilities between us. As for me, such scale of cooperation between our countries happens perhaps first time in our history and sure relationships between China and Russia are thousand times more warm, then between any of us and USA.

quote: Keep laughing Russkie; you'll be a Chinese citizen someday.

I don’t have plans to change my citizenship in near future.

	28-01-2003 19:57									#41
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quote: Originally posted by David Floyd Then they'll do what the Soviet Union was never able to do

Like USA was ever able to do the same with SU.

quote: If you want to say China will be more powerful 100 years from now, or 50, that's fine.

I want to say that you like to laugh and underestimate other peoples. You are so sure that you’re invincible. It’s pretty unwise, not to say more.

quote: But right now, and for the immediate future, China would have no chance in a war against the US.

"Maybe, maybe not - no one can say. "
- David Floyd.

"I bet on China"
- Serb.


"Never fight war in Asia."
-Don’t remember who.

	28-01-2003 19:59									#42
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quote: China would have no chance in a war against the US

What a silly, overconfident statement... Sure, the US is great at aerial bombardment, but China could put together a ground force greater than 2X the population of the entire US. Any war between the two would end in a bitter stalemate.

	28-01-2003 20:58									#43
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First of all, carrier groups are blind without AWACS, and a bunch of countries are fielding long range anti-radiation missiles developed specifically to kill off AWACS. Without these, carrier groups make very good targets for enemy planes and land based missiles. Oh, and those Russian Sunburn missiles. They are quite deadly.

Secondly, even by Pentagon's own simulation, the 7th Fleet cannot sustain air superiority in a war with the PRC. That was in 1995 I believe. Now the PRC has even better planes and missiles while the US counterpart stays the same, combined with long range anti-radiation missiles, the carrier groups won't even want to get near.

But why should we bother with telling this to Mr Floyd?

	28-01-2003 21:15									#44
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During the Korean war the Americans killed red Chinese at a rate of 20:1 and captured red chinese at a rate of 40:1. The aircraft kill rate was equally impressive and the Reds had the latest fighter aircraft the SU could provide.

I think the U.S. technology lead has increased greatly since 1950 so we could expect similiar or higher kill rates.

	28-01-2003 21:21									#45
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quote: And surely you can prove this claim? You know, hostile nations usually don't involved in military cooperation of such scale as cooperation between Russia and China.

The highly touted Sino-Russian cooperation agreement is long on rhetoric, but suprisingly short on substance. Little has come of it besides the mutually benificial sale of Russian arms to China.

At it's core, the Sino-Russian relationship hasn't changed much. The same conflicts still exist. China is the rising power in East Asia and is going to want to reassert its control in areas that historically fell under its purview. This includes Mongolia, an area Russia is extremely touchy about, and the Soviet Far East beyond the Amur River, which was taken from China by the Russians in what many Chinese view as a unequal treaty. Add in competition between Russia and China for influence in Central Asia and you have a plethora of issues that could put a serious kink in the supposedly good Sino-Russian relationship.

quote: As for me, such scale of cooperation between our countries happens perhaps first time in our history and sure relationships between China and Russia are thousand times more warm, then between any of us and USA.

Russo-American relations are at a high point. Putin and Bush are supposedly good friends. I'd suggest that Russo-American relations are just as warm or warmer than Sino-Russian relations.

	28-01-2003 21:24									#46
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Secondly, even by Pentagon's own simulation, the 7th Fleet cannot sustain air superiority in a war with the PRC. That was in 1995 I believe. Now the PRC has even better planes and missiles while the US counterpart stays the same, combined with long range anti-radiation missiles, the carrier groups won't even want to get near. But why should we bother with telling this to Mr Floyd?

That's why in 1995 they sent two carrier battle groups. Plus they would have the help of the Taiwanese Air Force and probably the South Korean and Japanese as well. Not to meantion the U.S. could forward position it's planes in Taiwan as soon as it looks like trouble is brewing or even pull in additional air craft carrier battle groups.

	28-01-2003 21:26									#47
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quote: But why should we bother with telling this to Mr Floyd?

Go right ahead. I don't think you'll bother him much; until you take into account American land-based air assets in Korea, Japan, and probably Taiwan, your argument won't carry much weight. You might also want to eliminate the assinine notion that American capabilities have remained the same since 1995. The technological leap in American weaponry since that time has been gigantic.

edit: Damn it, Oerdin! You stole my thunder!

	28-01-2003 21:40									#48
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This entire thread is amusing.

	28-01-2003 21:46									#49
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The US couldn't take Vietnam... and China is a lot bigger than the 30 million Iraq has.

	28-01-2003 22:01									#50
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quote: Originally posted by Drake Tungsten The highly touted Sino-Russian cooperation agreement is long on rhetoric, but suprisingly short on substance. Little has come of it besides the mutually benificial sale of Russian arms to China.

Blah...blah...blah...
China is one of the largest (if not the largest) trade partners for Russia. And it's not all about arms, but many, many other things. (Including our nuclear plants, btw )
Yeah, go ahead, include both of us in the "axis of evil", because of Russians who build nuclear plants in China.

quote: At it's core, the Sino-Russian relationship hasn't changed much.

BS. Our relationships changed dramaticaly since fall of SU. Today we consider ourselves partners, not enemies.

quote: The same conflicts still exist.

It is not.

quote: China is the rising power in East Asia and is going to want to reassert its control in areas that historically fell under its purview. This includes Mongolia, an area Russia is extremely touchy about, and the Soviet Far East beyond the Amur River, which was taken from China by the Russians in what many Chinese view as a unequal treaty. Add in competition between Russia and China for influence in Central Asia and you have a plethora of issues that could put a serious kink in the supposedly good Sino-Russian relationship.

Few years ago the threatu about common border was signed between our countries. "Border problems" were solved in this document.

quote: Russo-American relations are at a high point. Putin and Bush are supposedly good friends.

Yeah, like me and David Floyd.

quote: I'd suggest that Russo-American relations are just as warm or warmer than Sino-Russian relations.

Not even a close. Russo-American relationships lacks trust.

	28-01-2003 22:06									#51
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quote: True, but Russian equipment can't compete with the top-of-the-line ships fielded by the US (and to a lesser extent) Taiwan and Japan.

I think it would be a big waste of money for the Chinese to try to match the US, considering the liklihood of ever going up directly against the American military.

quote: (...) just compare the current and projected military budgets of the U.S., Japan, the major EU powers, South Korea, and China and you'll see China's spending is on the bottom.

Is that good or bad? Me, I think spending the funds on space exploration is a better idea!

quote: A lot of CIA analysts have said that China will be involved in a Cold War with the US in the next 20 years. Could this be the start?

Do you mean this thread, here at Apolyton?

	28-01-2003 22:14									#52
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quote: Originally posted by Sava The US couldn't take Vietnam... and China is a lot bigger than the 30 million Iraq has.

It most certainly could if it decided to invade the north. Johnson wasn't sure how far he could go before he would provoke the SU into WW3 so he just tried to fight and not fight at the same time. Defend but never attack. Bomb but don't send in the tanks.

Powell is right; either something is worth fighting for and you go all out or you don't fight. Only sort of fighting and letting things drag on and on is no plan at all.

	28-01-2003 22:26									#53
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin It most certainly could if it decided to invade the north.

The Chinese would have invaded and the USSR was prepared to go to war over North Vietnam as well. No one would have one that war except the cockroaches.

BTW, why would South Korea and Japan aid the US if the US decides to attack China?

	28-01-2003 23:17									#54
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin During the Korean war the Americans killed red Chinese at a rate of 20:1 and captured red chinese at a rate of 40:1. The aircraft kill rate was equally impressive and the Reds had the latest fighter aircraft the SU could provide. I think the U.S. technology lead has increased greatly since 1950 so we could expect similiar or higher kill rates.

Do you really think the Korean war is a good example to throw around, considering that when the Chinese entered the war the US controlled almost all of the peninsular and at the end of the war you controlled only half of it?


Several other factors have shifted in China's favour since then as well:

Number of men of millitary age (17-38)
1950 Ratio: 4.1 chinese to 1 american
2005 Ratio: 5.5 chinese to 1 american

China's industrial output:
1950: 2% of the USA
2005: 23% of the USA

	29-01-2003 00:01									#55
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Great! Let em build as many as they want. The financial costs of developing and maintaining such toys will bring down the communist government.

	29-01-2003 00:13									#56
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Stealth units are ideal backstabbing weapons. Bad for international peace.

On a related note, could stealth aircraft pilots be executed as spies under the Geneva Convention? They're unmarked, after all.

	29-01-2003 00:27									#57
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The aircraft may not be marked but the pilots are.

	29-01-2003 00:27									#58
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Stealth planes are only useful against smaller countries. Russia and China both have the technology to track American stealth planes. Hell, Yugoslavia even managed to shoot one down.

	29-01-2003 00:45									#59
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Yeah, I don't understand why "stealth" is so big deal. Stealth planes are not a problem for Russian SAM's as S-300 and S-400.

An anecdote:
Yugoslavian AA battery gunner is constantly shooting in absolutely clear sky... Explosion...Stealth bomber is falling down
American pilot: "you- fuc@%#$^ % #$%^#^ @#%#$^"
Yugoslavian gunner: "Sorry bro, I didn't noticed you"

	29-01-2003 00:53									#60
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quote: The aircraft may not be marked but the pilots are.

Yeah, but if a spy entered a country 'marked' with national colours under his civilian clothes, he'd still be executed.

Or what about a frogman planting explosives on cargo ships, with a national uniform underneath his drysuit?