01-02-2003 06:25									#1
	Lower Saxony and Hesse Elections Suffering from ads?

Looks like Schroeder is going down to a big defeat in his home region on Sunday.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentS...p=1012571727092

Can anybody here describe what is at stake for the government? Is it just humiliation, or does it make some operational difference?

To the Germans here, what is the mood in the country? Approval polls, etc.

	01-02-2003 10:08									#2
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No thoughts?

	01-02-2003 10:10									#3
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The rumors going in say Gerhard's party is going to suffer badly.

	03-02-2003 01:10									#4
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CNN among others have the story

State voters reject Schröder

According to some projections, the SPD will plunge from 48 to 33% in Niedersachsen (Lower Saxony) and from 40 to 28% in Hessen.

Maybe the peacenik anti US bluff of the general elections is coming back to haunt old Gerhard, eh?

Hessen's CDU premier Roland Koch has 50%, and in Niedersachsen, which is traditionally viewed as Schröder's base of power, the CDU is looking at 48%.

This is a historic defeat for the SPD as I see it.

	03-02-2003 02:09									#5
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Burn, Schrodi, burn! Ya gotta admit, that whole 'getting elected based on Yank-baiting' thing was pretty low, and he generally gives me rather negative vibes.

I wonder whether there will be Soc. Dems or Greens in parliament who'd be willing to join CDU/FDP in a vote of no confidence?

	03-02-2003 02:12									#6
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More likely the Greens, Stefu. Though even then, I think they'd realize that the CDU wouldn't invite them to a coalition afterwards .

	03-02-2003 02:24									#7
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Excellent. Crash and burn Schroeder.

	03-02-2003 02:32									#8
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Don't forget the CDU / FDP are as bad as the SPD or even worse. There is currently no valid alternative in Germany. Just the same old party-politics which won't bring anything good for the country.

Edit : btw, the "peacenik anti-US bluff" would help the SPD not to lose by too far. The Germans are outstandingly anti-war, and it is rumored Schröder won against Stoiber because of this in October.
(EditEdit : don't get me wrong : Stoiber was almost as impopular as Schröder ; Schröder has likely won just the few votes he needed with antiamericanism)

Last edited by Spiffor on 03-02-2003 at 02:43

	03-02-2003 02:34									#9
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I prefer the CDU and FDP . They may not be the same as Kohl's party, but servicable .

	03-02-2003 02:36									#10
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Why is that, Spiffor? It sounds to me like the CDU is a valid alternative. One of the only things I don't like about the CDU is its stand on immigration.

	03-02-2003 02:42									#11
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The CDU is a conservative party with no modern approach against the problems that Germany is facing, and is in favor of many outdated ideas (especially the traditional German hostility to groundright nationality).
Economically, the CDU and the SPD are really close to each other, with a slightly more pro-unions stance from the SPD. But both want to promote private enterprise, notably small businesses.
Put simply, both parties lack dearly the vision Germany oh so needs, and are just struggling for power.

The FDP is for a radical liberalization of the economy, which would be terrible for many aspects of the German society (yes, I am not talking about pure economics here). Especially in the East, where the still underdeveloped economy vitally needs help from the federation.

	03-02-2003 02:48									#12
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The very fact that the anti-American rhetoric helped Schröeder win marginally in the general elections was the reason I hinted it may now have come back to haunt him, Roland.

Edit:

I also don't agree with your analysis of the lack of differences between the two blocks. I agree there are similarities in some goals and means to reach them, but there's a profound difference in the leadership qualities the two main parties could provide for Germany, and not just person-wise, but more importantly political and ideological leadership.

But they've just held general elections, so I guess the people have spoken...

Last edited by Winston on 03-02-2003 at 02:54

	03-02-2003 02:50									#13
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I am Spiffor

Maybe it'll haunt him in the future, when Germany will be ridiculed internationally, and if Germans do care of this. But for now, antiamericanism is stronger as I've ever seen in Germany, and anti-war as well.

	03-02-2003 02:57									#14
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The fact that anti-Americanism is strong is not a reason to play on it. Not if you're a responsible political leader anyway.

Which might admittedly explain why Schröder did it.

	03-02-2003 03:02									#15
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The CDU is a conservative party with no modern approach against the problems that Germany is facing



The FDP is for a radical liberalization of the economy

Sound like my kind of guys.

	03-02-2003 03:15									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Winston The fact that anti-Americanism is strong is not a reason to play on it. Not if you're a responsible political leader anyway. Which might admittedly explain why Schröder did it.

Schröder is a shrewd politician, who'd use anything to get to power. Like his rivals.

	03-02-2003 03:19									#17
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quote: Originally posted by DanS The CDU is a conservative party with no modern approach against the problems that Germany is facing The FDP is for a radical liberalization of the economy Sound like my kind of guys.

If you're globally fond of solutions which aren't adapted to the problems, then you should vote for them as well
I don't know if any party has some valid approach though. If I could vote in Germany, I'd vote PDS (former communists), but only out of party fidelity - they suck approx. as much as the others.

	03-02-2003 03:23									#18
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I'd vote PDS (former communists)

OK, now I understand your "modern approach".

	03-02-2003 03:28									#19
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Maybe he ain't Roland after all.

	03-02-2003 03:41									#20
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DanS : as I said, I'd only vote for them out of party fidelity. They do not provide any satisfying answer to the challenges Germany must face, like the others. The FDP are the most "modern" ones, however they try to import solution radically unsatisying in the German context

And no, I am not Roland. Did you already see a DL which became King in a year ?
I think Roland's new login is HerschOstropoler

	03-02-2003 13:33									#21
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Somebody called me?

I doubt anti-americanism would be a vote-catcher. Contrary to US media propaganda, Schröder only said he's not interested in the Iraq adventure. Stoiber said essentially the same, just less loudly.

Pretty hefty defeat with two consequences: People will be sawing Schröder's chair. Lafontaine is already making noises, Clement is silent, so Clement has the headstart. Schröder did not react yesterday, that increases the chances of something bigger cooking. But I think he'll hang on.

The other consequence is that I think the opposition now has a 2/3rds majority in the Bundesrat, which means they can block even the non-consent-requiring laws. So the coalition has to invite the opposition to the dance.

Dan: You'd likely vote FDP, followed by the Greens.

	03-02-2003 15:10									#22
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The Greens? Well, I would have to see the platform first.

I just think my brother's social benefits in Bavaria are way over-the-top generous--well to the point of stifling. Any way they can put him to work (and take him and his family off the dole post haste), is appreciated.

Thanks for the rundown. Never heard the "sawing Schroeder's chair" before, but it's nifty. Is there anything that has a good chance to make the Schroeder gov't fall before the year is out, like Stoiber predicted?

Stoiber said essentially the same, just less loudly.

We would have been perfectly fine with accepting Stoiber's approach to the situation for Germany. We are accustomed to German pacificism, given Germany's history.

	03-02-2003 15:16									#23
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With Stoiber we'd invade Iraq ourselves :P

	03-02-2003 15:16									#24
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After the way Schröeder have treated all the other european countries I'm happy to see him defeated even if it is a little.

	03-02-2003 16:13									#25
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"The Greens? Well, I would have to see the platform first. "

They are making way more sense than the CDU.

"I just think my brother's social benefits in Bavaria are way over-the-top generous--well to the point of stifling. Any way they can put him to work (and take him and his family off the dole post haste), is appreciated."

He's on the dole? Well the benefits last way too long in germany. I was doing a study for a amall project in Traunstein, and we would have needed a mid-level manager. Almost impossible with 3.5 % unemployment and german unemployment benefits....

"Is there anything that has a good chance to make the Schroeder gov't fall before the year is out, like Stoiber predicted?"

IMO, no. The coalition as such can stay; it might just be that Schröder has to resign if the SPD stays at 25-30 % in the polls.

Lafontaine's comments: http://www.n-tv.de/3097905.html

"We would have been perfectly fine with accepting Stoiber's approach to the situation for Germany."

Then why the trouble with Schröder?

	03-02-2003 16:14									#26
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Isn't Lafontaine slighltly to the left of Marx

	03-02-2003 16:22									#27
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Lafontaine is more a mix between Keynes and Robin Hood.

	03-02-2003 16:23									#28
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Lafontaine is more a mix between Keynes and Robin Hood.

is that because he looks good in green

	03-02-2003 16:24									#29
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That probably too....

	03-02-2003 20:19									#30
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He's on the dole? Well the benefits last way too long in germany.

Yep. I don't know if I mentioned it earlier. He was doing web work at a pharma business-to-business dot com.

I don't blame my brother, since he's only following the incentives, and it's nice that he can help more with his wife and kids. These are real Disneyland benefits, though. I can't help but feel the system is encouraging him to piss away his best work years. Why would anybody accept a temporary job under these circumstances?

Last edited by DanS on 03-02-2003 at 20:27