06-02-2003 01:11									#1
	Did Powell's presentation convince you? Tired of ads?

curious to know if this really had any effect

	06-02-2003 01:21									#2
	Suffering from ads?

From what I've seen on CNN so far, very few people who were opposed to war before Powell's speech came out of it with a different opinion. Just as I predicted...

	06-02-2003 01:22									#3
	Suffering from ads?

I was already convinced. I have heard some of the leading Democrats have issued statements that they are convinced. The foreign ministers at the UN SC merely read canned speeches. We will learn more about whether Powell's presentation changed any of their positions tomorrow.

	06-02-2003 01:25									#4
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I watched most of the speech. Powell even said before that there would be no "smoking gun" contained within the presentation, so in effect it was just a one-stop summary of what's been largely known/suspected all along.

	06-02-2003 01:28									#5
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Powell only gets the impossible jobs. His life is like some sort of Ancient Greek hell.

This whole 'convincing evidence' thing reminds me of a Saturday morning cartoon where they use the exact same 'power-up' sequence in every single episode.

	06-02-2003 01:34									#6
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Double post (my first ever)

	06-02-2003 01:59									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Sandman Double post (my first ever)

Cherish the moment...

I agree that it seems like a bunch of silliness. DBZ is like that. After about the fiftieth powerup in a single ten minute span, you start wishing one of them would split their pants right down the middle of their buttock, bringing an immediate and embarasing end to their posturing...

...Not that I'd wish that on Colin Powell 'cause I like the guy. He's not an ass like most of the Bush Jr. Posse.


As far as convinced I've always believed Saddam is a threat to everyone in the region, including the Iraqis, but I believe the inspections should continue and even be intensified as suggested by *ugh* France. However, adding more people isn't enough; they need to be far more aggressive, perhaps even to the bleeding edge of beligerence. Saddam needs to be forced to squirm. Allied forces need to be kept at threatening levels in the region, ready to attack any moment Saddam resists significantly.

But today's episode of "As the War Drum Beats..." was as I feared: weak and unconvincing. "National Security Concerns" were cited as predicted, meaning they have nothing concrete, just more circumstantial evidence and hearsay.

*Sigh...* Why does Colin even bother hanging around anymore if Bush Jr. refuses to let him do his job to the best of his ability? What a waste of talent, charisma, and expertise...

	06-02-2003 02:03									#8
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im having a real hard time mapping the posts here to the poll votes. When you post, could you indicate how you voted (i mean you can maintain secret ballot if you like, but it would clarify things)

	06-02-2003 02:08									#9
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I was convinced already.

	06-02-2003 02:12									#10
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I haven't had a chance to thoroughly read up on his presentation, but I've talked with several people who did, and not a one changed their opinion, whatever it was beforehand.

	06-02-2003 02:17									#11
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quote: Originally posted by DRoseDARs But today's episode of "As the War Drum Beats..." was as I feared: weak and unconvincing. "National Security Concerns" were cited as predicted, meaning they have nothing concrete, just more circumstantial evidence and hearsay.

So you think Iraq is not in violation of 1441???

And did the tapes of Iraqi conversations about evacuating the sites count as circumstantial evidence or hearsay?

And did the photos of trucks showing up just prior to inspections count as circumstantial evidence or hearsay?

	06-02-2003 02:18									#12
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I don't really know. I'm not bothered by a war in Iraq, but I'm not excited about one either. It seems to me like we've got this hyperactive military with a whole bunch of guns, and frankly I'd rather turn them loose on a psychotic dictator than say, Canada.

EDIT: It seems clear to me that Iraq is at least in violation of 1441. If we want to maintain credibility, kicking Saddam's butt would be a good idea, but I don't think he's a real threat to our national security.

	06-02-2003 02:20									#13
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I have to take a look at the whole thing, but what I've seen so far leaves me feeling less than satisfied. I really was expecting the Administration to do a smackdown on Iraq, smoking gun, see you wussy anti-war folks are FoS. I'm not getting that impression, but more study is needed.

Then again, as I've said all along, I don't care what Iraq has. This is about US imperialism, to which I'm irrevocably opposed. I just wish the Administration wouldn't live down to my expectations.

	06-02-2003 02:31									#14
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I think Powell showed how inspections will not reveal a smoking gun. It would be neccessary for Iraq to stand down while the inspections take place. They aren't doing that. They continue to hide evidence. I think Powell showed that. Therefore stop the inspections and get that ****er out of there. And another thing, I think that France and the rest of the idiots just showed how they will never support military action just continued inspections whether they work or not.

	06-02-2003 02:47									#15
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I'm leaning a bit more towards Iraq being in violation...
Ahem... But that was before I read what exactly resolution 1441 was.

There seem to be two main points to the resolution:
1. Give Iraq a final opportunity to disarm/show they have disarmed. It's the job of the inspectors to verify this.
2. Make sure Iraq cooperates fully.

As for point 1, there's no way the inspectors could search all of Iraq in a month. So either the US added this to make it seem as if they were being gentle and truly interested in the inspections, the future of which would be determined at the end of the 60 day term, OR Bush just thought February/March was a good time to start a war, so he could just as well pretend to cooperate with the UN for a bit.

As for point 2, the US has now brought some evidence that Iraq isn't cooperating, more so even than Hans Blix said earlier. IMHO, I still think it's mainly up to the discretion of the inspectors to decide whether Iraq is cooperating enough or not. Mr. Blix seemed happy enough...

After reading the resolution, I'm still slightly more convinced Iraq may be violating, but I think it's mainly the inspector's task to judge that.

But if for the US this means war, I disagree. I think war will only **** up Iraq and the entire region more than it already is, and increase the "Arab/Muslim hatred" for the US. I just don't see how that will do anyone any good. Maintaining the pressure of a war and American military presence, however, is, for now, a good thing.

I think Britain and the US are wrong by wanting to go to war right now (and pretending to be all diplomatic about it), but France et al. would be unwise if they were consistently dismissing it all since that stance could give Iraq the possibility to continue kind-of violating UN resolutions.

I think inspections should be stepped up one or two notches, perhaps even have the inspectors guided by UN troops, and use US intelligence to locate the problems. At the same time they could lift the trade embargo. That way the situation in Iraq could improve, while the noose around Saddam's neck is tightened.

	06-02-2003 03:28									#16
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Mercator, they are in violation.
They hide things, deny access, detain inspectors.
What's it take?

	06-02-2003 03:52									#17
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quote: Originally posted by SlowwHand What's it take?

Perhaps a valid reason to go to war, besides satisfying Texan bloodlust. Maybe we should build you guys a Roman Collusseum, where you can throw Christians to lions.



You people aren't gonna be happy until the US is at permanent war with the rest of the world.

	06-02-2003 03:58									#18
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Screw off with your little personal insults, Chegitz. T
his is a U.N. thing. In theory.
If they'd follow up on their "demands".

	06-02-2003 04:05									#19
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It convinced me as to having an adequate casus belli. I'm still not convinced the US has a clue what to do, or how, with a post-Saddam Iraq, such that we don't create a bigger mess than exists now.

	06-02-2003 04:08									#20
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I just started a poll that deals with that issue, MtG.

	06-02-2003 04:38									#21
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The only thing it proves to me is that Iraq is yanking their chain. No proof of WMD or that they are a serious risk to the US. But yanking their chain is a violation and provides cause to respond. Whether war is the proper responce is still not a given to me. I too am a bit concerned that not enough thought has been given to what happens after. I don't want to spill all that blood and still have it screwed up.

But being in violation of a UN resolution has never been that serious of a thing since the UN rarely backs up it's threats. Which is why so many people don't take the UN very seriously.

I think for Bush, he has enough cause, but I don't think the American people do. Bush really needs the UN to stand up before he can move. But once he's convinced that he'll never get it, he'll move without it and take the PR hit. (fortunately or unfortunately, bush is a man of conviction and I believe that if he feels that strongly that what he's doing is right, the PR hit won't be a deterence) I hope today wasn't the final straw. It would give more time to figure out what to do after.

RAH

	06-02-2003 04:46									#22
	Tired of ads?

It has started to make me think abour war as a viable option.

	06-02-2003 04:57									#23
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Another day, another uneventful load of crap from the Bush administration. Human intelligence is very unreliable, and that's what the entire Bush case is based on. Sure, they have great circumstancial evidence, but it's simply not enough to risk American lives in a war, and certainly not worth killing Iraqi civilians.

I don't get why the media was hyping Powell's speech as the most significant since Stevenson's. I see a great many differences between the two. The US actually had proof of Cuban missiles; whereas the US now just has the testimonies of a few Iraqi dissenters. I wonder if it's occurred to anyone that Saddam might be putting these informants up to misinform the US?

I say, keep the pressure on. I don't see Saddam making any WMD's or giving them to terrorists with all eyes on Iraq and the inspectors looking around. And if Saddam can't give WMD's to terrorists or use them against the US, there's no point to invading. He's not going anywhere. Time is on our side. I certainly think that with all the stakes involved, we shouldn't risk starting a war unless there is a smoking gun.

	06-02-2003 05:12									#24
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LoTM:

You forgot one option: it did not convince me cause I disagree with the fundamentals.

This month will be like watching the show trial of a guilty man: A painfull farce.

The US has decided to go to war: the major decision was taken back in August, no matter how much they tell you that the president has still to decide. All Powell won was how to get to this point. It was a good choice for the admin. cause by making this all about 'disarmament', instead of what it really is about, National-engineering, they get most people on board.

In the end everyone save the Germans will climb on board: most states value their relation with the US too much and this admin. is so bent on demanding loyalty tests to its party line that it can't see the forest beyond the trees. The Chinese won't say no, neither will the Russkies, and the French, the primal pragmatists, will at some point latter this month decide that Bush wants this so hard, its best just to go with it.

Lets get on with it. We will be wat war at the end of the month.

	06-02-2003 05:29									#25
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It wasn't a smoking gun, and it dodn't prove everything they set out to. But it did definitely prove that the Iraqis are in violation of international law in certain areas.

And those intercepted convercations were great. "Hey muhammad! Stop talking about nerve gas in wireless transmissions." "Nerve gas?" "That's right." "Transmissions?" "Wireless transmissions."

	06-02-2003 05:35									#26
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4 people said Iraq hasn't violated 1441. Silly

	06-02-2003 07:24									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Sava Another day, another uneventful load of crap from the Bush administration. Human intelligence is very unreliable, and that's what the entire Bush case is based on. the US now just has the testimonies of a few Iraqi dissenters.

Um, did you watch it? This case was based partly on human intelligence, not entirely as you just said verbatim. How 'unreliable' can satellite photos and wireless intercepts be?

	06-02-2003 07:45									#28
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Without reading the whole thread, I say, we need about 500 inspectors and about 100 Cessnas flying the whole damm country at about 300 feet above the country side at about 80 MPH and look for any thing that does not appear to be normal.

	06-02-2003 07:47									#29
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It didn't convince me, but the "say something enough times sooner or later people will believe it" is slowly kicking in.

	06-02-2003 07:50									#30
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It's the fact that they have the "dove" of the administration saying it this time that helps it along, BC.