11-02-2003 06:29									#1
	Does the Great Library still make sense? Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

Thanks to disease, we're running in the neighborhood of ten turns behind our original schedule for trying to add workers to speed up construction of the Great Library, which translates into somewhere in the neighborhood of seven turns' delay for the completion date. Further, tech trading seems to be going at a fairly fast pace, and with human beings deliberately coordinating research efforts, it is not at all difficult to envision our world's outpacing what's typical in even an Emperor-level SP game.

We're pretty definitely looking at 40+ turns to build the Great Library, if only because it will take a while to improve enough tiles before we can add any significant number of workers. By that time, with the right trades, a strong research civ that beelines to it could have Republic. And depending on how diverse and well-coordinated research among the other civs is (and, of course, on whether peace holds), trades could take the leading civs into the medieval era around the same time.

Vox will get one medieval tech free when it enters the medieval era, so if our deal with them is still on at that time, that's one of the three techs the Great Library would give us that we'll get anyhow. That could set up a situation where we might get as few as just two or three techs from the Great Library before it becomes obsolete, especially if the tech leaders elsewhere get sneaky enough (e.g. "I'll give you Theology and Education now, and you give me Engineering and Invention after the Great Library goes obsolete"). So with the rate research is progressing at, it's rather questionable whether we would actually get much value from the Great Library.

If we were willing to "bet the farm" that we could get the Great Library, and to suspend all research past Literature in the meantime, going for the Great Library could be either a nice coup or an unmitigated disaster. But that's too big a risk, especially after our delay. And if we keep pushing research hard while we build the Great Library, I'm starting to seriously doubt whether the Great Library would provide enough advantage to be worth the cost (not just in shields but in delay to our other development).

Nathan

	11-02-2003 08:28									#2
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Instead of Great Library, we should build the Colossus.

	11-02-2003 09:45									#3
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I think I agree that the Library is losing its value rapidly.

I honestly didn't anticipate the level of trading among teams, I expected at least one team to be eliminated by now and the others to be more standoffish. Teams are playing much more timidly (perhaps its the high stakes of the time investment) than they would in a normal PBEM, much more conservatively, thus we might see the industrial age before firing a shot or raising a sword.

What would the goal be if we don't go for the GL?

Go for a different ancient wonder? NOne really apeal to me at this point, though the colossus is nice, however its been awhile since availble so it might be being built (or prebuilded for stealthiness) elsewhere.

Go warmongering in the ancient age? Would be fun, and to spice up the game. We could have Vox give us cash (to appear neutral) and pay GoW to fight with us against Lux.

	11-02-2003 13:11									#4
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There are 3 things to evaluate and compare.

1. The benefits the GL gives
2. The price we pay for it
3. The probability, that we can get it

Given the circumstances, that appeared in the past few turns (tech trades, contacts, disease), the benefits of the GL are decreasing, the price has become higher (if we go for it, our growth will be delayed by another 10 turns = 2 cities), and the probability due to the delay is sinking.

Yet five turns ago, we found an acceptable compromise and the project seemed quite doable. But we have been taught a lesson, that it's dangerous to depend on floodplains, and that sophisticated plans may be contradicted by bad luck.

It hurts, to say no, after so many invested time and passionate discussions, but sometimes it's the best one can do. Stop the project, is my vote.

	11-02-2003 13:57									#5
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- One 2vs2 or 3vs1 war on the mainland would be enough to change all our estimates and make the GL much more profitable.

- We are certainly not going to continue to give all our techs to Vox for free after the GL is built. When they'll see the GL completion screen on their save, I'm sure that they'll understand.

- Our only competition for the GL is Legoland. The four civs on the mainland will not go for a wonder right now, given the tension between those teams (they've already settled the entire landmass, according to what RP told us!). They'll prefer building barracks and military units over building wonders.
Vox is too weak to build anything as big as a wonder.
We are left with Legoland, whom we know (according to the F11 screen) has had a start that is not as good as ours, and has been surprise-attacked by barbarians and had to poprush a defender, which ought to have cost them. Furthermore, chances are that they won't try something as radical as joining workers to their wonder city to complete it faster. IMHO, chances are that we're the only crazy folks around actually attempting such a plan.

- Given the improving relations between Vox and ourselves, there's a better chance than before that they would agree to give us workers for future benefits. Unless I've missed something and they've already received this offer and denied it, I think we should present this offer to them.

	11-02-2003 14:02									#6
	Put an end to popups!

I think it is premature to assume that we will come by too many techs too easily. I'm not exactly sure what's going on, but we could easily see a door closed in our faces at anytime.

	11-02-2003 15:01									#7
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If we were talking in terms of making Vox full enough partners on the Great Library project that they would clearly stand to benefit more from it than they do from a "give each other all techs discovered" arrangement without the Great Library, I would view the odds of bringing Vox in as good. But simply offering Vox a couple techs in exchange for workers means they lose out on the current arrangement (since under the current partnership, they would get whatever we discover anyhow), and I have a hard time imagining Vox view that as a positive development. And even assuming we get a couple workers from Vox, it will take time to improve tiles to use them.

Also note that if the main continent is in fact running out of room to expand, that significantly increases the odds of foreign galleys visiting our shores, and they won't necessarily be empty. That might make settling our land mass quickly more important than it would be otherwise.

As for Lego, their score says they can't be doing too badly. Yes, a lot of that comes from their capital's already having grown another notch (since they seem to have built a temple quite some time ago), and yes, a loose build pattern, especially coupled with another temple or two elsewhere, would also give them a much higher score per city than we have. But even allowing for that, they're probably competitive with us in number of cities.

The point that a war on the main continent could slow down research is a good one. But anything that would slow down research significantly elsewhere would also give us real potential to pull away with a significant tech lead if we don't count on the Great Library for our techs. As I've said before, I rarely have much interest in the Great Library in SP (except perhaps for denial purposes) because to use it, one has to become a tech follower rather than a tech leader.

So if peace and tech trading continue, the Great Library probably won't give us nearly as much as we were hoping for, while if war significantly hinders research in the rest of the world, relying on the Great Library for our techs would very likely cost us the opportunity to pull away with a nice tech lead. For that matter, even if the other civs stay at peace but turn out to be significantly more crowded than we are, counting on the Great Library for our techs would deny us the chance for a tech lead. Pretty much any way things go, its value is likely to be a lot more limited than what we assumed in our original projections.

Nathan

	11-02-2003 15:22									#8
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I even think the pyramids could be more usefull, even from a denial point of view.
If someone on the "main" continent is able to get his hands on it, is likely to become the most powerfull civ on it.

	11-02-2003 15:23									#9
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I think it is premature to assume that we will come by too many techs too easily. I'm not exactly sure what's going on, but we could easily see a door closed in our faces at anytime.

Opportunities come as they go. Assuming that we would not need or benefit from the GL is just as dangerous as assuming that we will get the GL and halting all research after we get Literature.

	11-02-2003 15:28									#10
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Nathan: regarding the tech leader vs. tech follower, if techs spread around so quickly in this game, then the difference between the tech leader and the tech follower would be that of a mere few turns.
Alva: I've been having similar thoughts... but right now, I think we should start on the GL and only switch later on.

	11-02-2003 15:57									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Shiber Nathan: regarding the tech leader vs. tech follower, if techs spread around so quickly in this game, then the difference between the tech leader and the tech follower would be that of a mere few turns. Alva: I've been having similar thoughts... but right now, I think we should start on the GL and only switch later on.

The difference might or might not be just a few turns. If other civs have similar size and a similar degree of freedom to focus on city improvements, the difference will be small. But if we have more land to begin with (or the same amount of land but a lot more cities crammed into it) and can also focus more on city improvements and less on military, or if we start out bigger and use our military to pile on still more of a size advantage, the difference between us and second place could be considerable.

Also note that two civs have to have a tech before the Great Library civ gets it. So if there is a significant tech disparity in the rest of the world, the Great Library's owners can find themselves significantly behind first place. Thus, the overall advantage we get researching ourselves is the lead we get over second place plus the difference between first and second place among the rest of the world. (And at times, even a little more than that, since the Great Library civ doesn't get techs until first and second place make their trades so both have the same techs.)

Granted, building up a tech lead without the Great Library is nowhere near a sure thing. But the possibility that we could do it reduces the "expected value" (i.e. the weighted average of all possible values) of the Great Library considerably.

I have no objection to going for a wonder in Hurricane, and if events start to unfold in a direction that makes it look more worthwhile, we could even start piling in workers later. But for the moment, I'm a bit more inclined to focus on REXing rather than invest two or three settlers' worth of workers (depending on whether or not we get Vox's help) going all out for the Great Library.

	11-02-2003 16:01									#12
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By the way, note that after disease, EotS can build a settler or two instead of workers without having to shift to lower-growth tiles for extra production. That makes now an even better time to focus on settlers over workers, especially since we have a couple more locations where our new settlers can take advantage of wheat.

	11-02-2003 17:13									#13
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I still value the GL, how could I not be. But that doesn't mean I don't see the problems here. Indeed, tech trading is picking up, but I predict this will stabilise quickly, simply because new techs can't be learned when not enough beakers are available. Republic would take us 30 turns right now to research, and we're 2nd best in research worldwide. Sure, this will get a bit better, but as long as there is rexing, the beaker output of civs is going to be minimal.

So, even if right now techs flow easily, people will get a lot more protective of their valuable techs later on. There are 2 implications of the GL: first of all, the one who gets it can keep up (albeit a bit behind the tech leaders) spending no gold, leading to an estimated 2000 gold (which is deminishing, as we're still receiving techs for free). Secondly, the GL leads to even greater sharing, and balance between teams, because once the GL-team has a tech, everyone wants to be the first to trade it to those who don't have it yet. If 2 teams are in the middle of a war and thus don't trade, 2 other possible tech trading partners are standing by.

This last effect leads to an even more frantic research pace, which benefits 2 civs: the GL one (as it doesn't have to invest anything), and the best researcher after the GL has done its share. If we could get both advantages, we will launch ourselves in a comfortable tech lead by the middle-end of the middle ages (provided we get that far with this game).

Some more thoughts about it: I think part of the reason why I still want to go for the GL is that it would deny the wonder to anyone else, who might not have the kind of research potential we have. I don't want to start to think on how to deny techs to another GL-team, if we could get it ourselves.

Most importantly, I see 2 reasons why this comes up again, and people are starting to hesitate on the GL: 1) we were unlucky with disease, and therefore are delayed by an estimated 7 turns. 2) the tech deal that Vox and us now have wouldn't benefit from the GL.

With 1) I can agree, it was unfortunate, but that's the game. If we need to adjust because the past 4 disease turns have cost us too much, okay. But, I don't think everything is lost, I dare to say we've got most cities at this moment (maybe 2nd to ND), and we've got some 15 turns left before the next boom in cities. By that time, we should more or less have built all workers needed, and Cyclone would be ready as a pump too. Sure, we might temporary lose the advantage of pure rexing, but we won't get behind (far), and in 20 turns time we again should have the best expansion potential. I don't consider it a problem, for it to become one we would need to be hit with disease for another 4 times or so...

2) Is a problem: we might not get in front with the deal with Vox, but we'll manage to keep up anyhow, even without the GL. But there are a couple of problems here: Vox needs this deal more then us, their crappy research isn't going to net us anything, all we can get from them is what they got from others. Sure, they're giving us most now, and we are taking advantage of them now, but we should all realize that the longer this deal goes on, the worse it will get for us. So instead of scrapping the GL for the current deal, I would rather scrap this deal for the GL. It would give our independence back, as now we're getting to relying on Vox

Last PS: I'm not sure we're going to see foreign galleys on our coasts soon, at least not before we are able to take most key spots on this continent of ours. If I count, our continent isn't terribly big, where as the main continent seems to be bigger. Before they are able to expand to all corners, we will have gotten all our ground, and will be looking to more land. Don't forget that while we more or less can Rex unprotected (which we aren't doing at this moment, but which is possible if it needs to be), the mainland civs need to have 2 spears or so for each city they found. That in itself is going to limit their growth potential tremendously.

DeepO

	11-02-2003 17:21									#14
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Nathan, IMHO tech leadership in the ancient age isn't as important as you describe it. The best thing about the GL is that it allows us to keep up in research while stockpiling gold, which can later be used to rush libraries, for instance. By the time the GL will become obsolete, we'll have more libraries than anyone else and we'll quickly become the tech leaders in the Middle Age, which is much more valuable than being the leader in the Ancient Age.

Last edited by Shiber on 11-02-2003 at 17:50

	11-02-2003 19:07									#15
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The big question is how our larger strategy is going to fit together. If we want to invade someone (presumably not one of the tech leaders) in the time between Republic and Feudalism, the Great Library could let us focus on gold for warrior-to-swordsman upgrades and maybe later WC-to-knight upgrades while ignoring research for a while. In that scenario, our investment would be in enlarging our nation so we'll have a larger research base when we do start researching, and we would pretty definitely get our shields' and workers' worth out of the Great Library. (Although the delay does eat significantly into the potential profit.)

The other option is to play an almost pure research game, try to beat the rest of the world to Military Tradition by a significant margin, and stomp with cavalry upgraded from WCs. In that case, I think we'd be better off focusing on doing our own research so we can get Education and Banking (and thus start investing in universities and banks) earlier. If we can build a tech lead, the savings from earlier universities and banks could easily outweigh the savings the Great Library would provide. (Note that trying to get Leo's would also be a key part of such a strategy, although with China and the Arabs in their prime in that period, they may end up with enough leaders to make it hard for anyone else to build wonders.)

So whether we should go for the Great Library or not probably depends on which direction we're leaning in terms of overall strategy.

Nathan

	11-02-2003 20:34									#16
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Disease sucks.

I'm having a hard time gauging where we're at, in terms of the overall game. PBEM games are like that... what flashes by quickly in SP takes an eternity.

Having said that, I'm leaning toward my original wish: the Colossus. It's more conservative (lower risk, lower reward... but still a nice reward). Meanwhile, pump settlers in EotS (to the extent that the friggin' RNG doesn't decide to hit us with more disease).

-Arrian

	11-02-2003 23:07									#17
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Well... although I still favor the GL, I like the Collosus too. However, if we would go for that one, we would be best to pump the size of Hurricane too, as the larger the city, the better the profits. And once it gets to size 11 or 12 (which are both stable without a border increase, for size 12 a harbor is needed), we can't really use it as a pop-supplier, but solely as a barracks and science city. But yes, it's a valid option

DeepO

	11-02-2003 23:16									#18
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Oh, BTW, I recently was able to get a new personal record on the completion of the GL: 1175 BC, starting with the second city immediately after founding, and without adding many workers (1 or 2, there were cows in abundance). I think as a comparison it can count: this was an emperor large map, of which the discovery of literature really was the only limiting factor, and I went all out on it, risking as much as I could. By the time it finished, I only had 3 cities, and hardly any decent troops...

If I count the delays, we should be able to finish the GL in 850 - 800 BC, maybe faster, and at that time have some 8 cities or more, even if we get hit by disease again. I still think this is a viable situation, getting a supersized wondercity, the GL and 8 cities in 800 BC (which is before any major invasion forces could arrive)... but yes, we need to adjust middle long term plans, as we don't want to speed along the tech tree if this means we need to give techs away for free. We can catch up later, and still keep some techs to deal to others...

Oh, and Arrian, I think our current situation is about as good as they come, when not archer rushing the AIs. We're still only 51 turns far in the game...

DeepO

	12-02-2003 00:12									#19
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Indeed, a tough call- the monetary benefits of the GL (which i see as most important, especially in terms of buying other teams- like Gow) against its cost in early growth (8 cities by 800 is too little IMHO) and the fact that we can't predict what will happen on the main continent- sure, some will war and some will trade- but how many? and will we be able to use our monetary advantage before they make our GL almost absolete. I mean- will we use our money for buying GoW, for example, just to keep the war going and our GL advantage?

After the last disease strikes and the great trade potential we will soon have (after trading contacts), as well as our relative comfortable geographical position (although others probably have more room), i think its better we focus on a more modest wonder or project, like building the colossus, or building hurricane as our east port

	12-02-2003 00:23									#20
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Well... if going for the Collosus doesn't keep us from adding workers (other teams will value it too, and race for it, plus it pays off best when built in a large city), we'll get the same situation when it comes to amount of cities. Note that for 8 cities in 800 BC, we don't build any settlers outside of our two pump cities, and build workers there too. I guess it will be closer to 10 cities, which would maybe mean we're not the largest civ anymore, but still one of the largests.

If Collosus in a large city seems a good option to most of us if the GL doesn't have that much use in a new trade situation, we could start a palace prebuild now, add workers, and decide in some 15 turns if we'll go for the Collosus or the GL. But we need to adjust our long term plans a lot sooner.

Personally, I would keep the Collosus or the lighthouse an option, but still aim for the GL. But yes, I'm less fanatic as I used to be.

DeepO

	12-02-2003 08:14									#21
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I'm still up for the GLib.

Our best strategy here could be just as much Machiavellian as it might be REX or warfare.

In my own SP games, I too often limit my game strategies, by not keeping enough balance among the Pillars (thus my reports of significant come-backs in the Strat forum).

Although I think Nathan and others pushed a too-pacifistic agenda early on (and I was probably wrong), I very strongly feel we need to maintain an EXTREMELY balanced strategy for the time being.

What does that mean?

REXing, yes.

Appropriate defense, yes.

Offense? Not yet.

A game-breaking GW effort? Yeah, why not... Re-assess often, and stay flexible.

	12-02-2003 20:26									#22
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Theseus, if I were convinced that the Great Library would be that "game-breaking GW effort," I would be all for it myself. But the Great Library is very much a hit-or-miss proposition. In the "Son of SVC" AU game, I used the Great Library to excellent effect because the starting position provided too little halfway-decent land to build up an adequate research base on my own. I knew there was no way I could keep up in tech on my own, so I made the Great Library a high priority. But in the isolation game as Persia (where civs were deliberately held back from meeting each other), I pushed ahead with my own research and let the Great Library (which I had built in case it looked like the AIs were outpacing me) just sit there doing nothing. As a result, I was out stomping all over the rest of the world with cavalry at a time when players who relied on the Great Library were still waiting to be contacted. Yes, that was a unique case, but games where I would have to give up a significant potential tech advantage to use the Great Library aren't rare. The Great Library can be a game-breaker, a ball and chain that holds you back, or anything in between, all depending on the circumstances.

This game is a lot harder to get a read on because human opponents aren't going to play like AIs. There are possible scenarios where the Great Library could benefit us a great deal (especially if we get a chance to play vulture after an ancient-era fight between rivals), and possible scenarios where using it could cost us an opportunity for a significant tech lead. That makes me a lot more unsure it's worth a significant compromise to our REXing to get it.

And frankly, the fact that so much of the team has such serious reservations about a long-term partnership with Vox gives me a lot more reservations about the Great Library. We and Vox have the only two offensive-oriented ancient UUs in the game. Our UU upgrades to knights, while Vox's has enough of an offensive punch to take on pikemen without upgrading. Together, our two civs could pack a very serious wallop for an offensive in the late ancient/early medieval era, the time when we would need to mount an offensive for the Great Library to be worthwhile.

But for that to work right, we need to bring Vox in on the Great Library deal as something approaching full partners, giving them a good enough return that their deal from the Great Library is clearly better for them than what they're getting from the current research pact (and preferably enough better for them to view it as in their interest to contribute workers to the effort). But no one but me seems interested in that kind of partnership, and without such a partnership, our potential for fighting the kind of war that would use the Great Library to best possible advantage is a lot more limited.

Nathan

	12-02-2003 20:42									#23
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Indeed, I don't care about having a long term partnership with Vox, simply because they may have got possibly the best ancient UU, but I doubt they will play optimally with it. I was never scared from them when it came to defending our own territory, I'm sure other teams are not that scared of them either...

But there are other offensive possibilities around the time mentioned, and the most obvious one would be to eradicate Vox. We may not want to see the long term alliance with Vox, Nathan, but are you sure you want to see the option where Vox is sitting on a time bomb?

DeepO

	12-02-2003 21:07									#24
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I can't help but think the kind of "suspend research and do massive upgrades" tactics normally associated with the Great Library would be major overkill going after Vox. But while Vox would have no real chance of standing up against us, such a fight would weaken us enough and cost us enough time to make an invasion of the main continent during that era a lot more difficult.

And frankly, if Vox proves not to be particularly competent as allies, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. No matter how incompetent Vox is, a big stack of immortals would be bound to draw a lot off attention away from us and kill some enemy units in the process. If Vox's attack then falters, we'll be left with the advantage of reduced casualties for us without making Vox a major power in the process.

Also keep in mind that Vox is willing to trade some of their cities closer to us for conquered Luxian cities, since Lux is closer to their capital. So we could end up with most of our continent, a better-placed FP because we wouldn't have to worry about reducing corruption all the way from one end of the continent to the other, and a foothold (and hopefully a palace) on the other continent. That seems like a lot more potential profit than what we could gain from killing Vox. And with us controlling a larger percentage of our home continent, Vox would be in a weaker position to attempt a doublecross later as well.

Nathan

	12-02-2003 21:56									#25
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I agree that the GL plan is no longer a good idea, for all the reasons mentioned above. I also do not like the Colossus plan. The Colossus would be a nice addition once we're up and running, but putting heavy investment into it now is not worth the return, IMO.

I may be wrong, but there seems to be a subconscious desire to "do something" with this game, since things are moving so slowly compared to SP. Thus we're considering tier-2 Wonders. The only Wonder that is worth uber-heavy early investment in this game is the GL, and even that plan has much going against it now. So generally I'm with Theseus that would should play a strong, conservative game here.


Dominae

	12-02-2003 23:31									#26
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I still like the idea of the Great Library in conjunction with a joint operation with Vox to invade the main continent. That could bring a considerable payoff, and the timing is right to make good use of the Great Library. And with a little luck, Gow, ND, and Lux will have worn each other down a bit fighting by then, or at least will be weak from having neglected their REXing while focusing on a military build-up.

But otherwise (and no one else seems to support my alliance idea), my inclination is to start Hurricane on a prebuild for "a wonder" and see how things play out. We would keep REXing for the time being, but maybe add workers later once our more important city sites are all up and running.

Nathan

	12-02-2003 23:44									#27
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Should we give up on the GL and prepare for building the Sistine Chapel and another midage wonder (Leonardo's or JS Bach's are both great) instead?

	12-02-2003 23:53									#28
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I too support the "a Wonder" plan, as long as we do not join any Workers or otherwise focus on it too much. Sun Tzu would be nice, and who knows, we might even manage to deny the GL to the other teams. Too bad we've got that Barracks in Hurricane, though...


Dominae

	12-02-2003 23:58									#29
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Shiber, that won't be possible right now, it's much too early for that. If a war does break out on the main continent, tech rates are going to drop extremely, the middle age could be far away. We're very decent research wise, but we can only discover techs in 10 or more turns even after we build libraries, and if nobody is doing the same the Sistine Chapel can be many centuries away.

If we don't get the GL, there is one less tech trading partner around, and the two teams that have most chance of building the GL peacefully are also the best candidates for research (RPG and Lego). If one of those keep the slider at 100% tax because of the GL, it will take ages before anything gets researched around here.

Think about this for a minute: what are we going to do in the case when another team builds the GL? Are we going to beeline for education, spending all we have on research so at least they will gain less money? Or, are we going to try to ceise the GL forcefully? Or, are we just going about our business, not taking into account the possible advantages one team gets, as other teams will focus on them?

DeepO

	13-02-2003 00:05									#30
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

One last comment, in case we have a trustful, long term relation with any team at the moment the GL wears out, we can still get a considerable advantage out of it if the other team is willing to not research are acquire education for a while. We could e.g. focus on one path, and after 30 or 40 turns offer our city to our ally for 1 turn, at which point he will get all current techs known to 2 teams. If we play it right, that team will thus be able to stockpile gold, which they later can share with us, together with any new techs they discovered,

DeepO