19-02-2003 09:36									#61
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Iraq had the highest standard of living and was the most advanced state in the Mideast until dumbass Saddam went after Iran, and then Kuwait.

IIRC, Iraq was responding to Iranian provocations in the Southern region?

Anyway, it was dumbarse Saddam that built the country up to what it was like before Gulf War I.

	19-02-2003 09:37									#62
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quote: However, no one wants an independent Kurdistan save for Iran.

No one wants an independent Kurdistan save people who believe in freedom.

Iran certainly does not, BTW. It has a large Kurdish population which it has brutally supressed. It doesn't want go trigger any Kurdish nationalism. Why do you think it's funding anti-(secular)-Kurdish terror groups (i.e. the group that Powell brought up that supposedly connected Saddam with al-Qaeda).

	19-02-2003 09:37									#63
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Nah, Bush has proven he simply can't do it.

	19-02-2003 11:01									#64
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If this is just a transitional government, then I have no problem with it. There better be real democracy down the line, however...

	19-02-2003 11:35									#65
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The war hasn't even started (and I sure unrealistically hope it doesn't) and already people are bringing up secret "anti-democracy" plans and such...

Nobody will ever get the exact Iraq they want, and it'll take a number of years of occupation and reconstruction for anything even ressembling democracy to begin to appear anyways, so this is all premature.

	19-02-2003 11:41									#66
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The Bush people told the Kurdish governments in Northern Iraq what they had planned. The Kurds, as well as the Iraqi National Congress, do not like this plan.

	19-02-2003 13:52									#67
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Damn, I hope all the ethnic groups in Iraq get treated fairly. I know they can't just start having elections right away, but with Turkey and other ME nations involved I have my doubts if they ever will. An American democracy will not be welcome and I doubt if it will even work. Minority ethic groups are sometimes treated badly in a democracy that is not devoted to equal treatment. Equal treatment can not be guaranteed by the US. As soon as we pull out another tyrant could easily take over.

	19-02-2003 14:44									#68
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I'm starting to wonder whether this Iraq war is mostly some kind of feel-good exercise for the american right.

There's only now some reasoning about the problems that will arise, and it's perfectly plausible that it goes like this:

A: Democracy.
B: Sounds great.
A: But what about the Kurds?
B: Uhm... Well they can't have it because Turkey would intervene.
A: And the Shiites?
B: Well they can't have it because they might tend towards Iran.
A: So it's democracy for the Sunni minority.
B: Yeah, something like that...
A: Might be easier to have a homegrown dictator. Also no need to stay for long, much cheaper.
B: Yeah... I think that's it...

	20-02-2003 00:22									#69
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler I'm starting to wonder whether this Iraq war is mostly some kind of feel-good exercise for the american right.

What took you so long?

	20-02-2003 00:30									#70
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Not just feel good. It's also about domination in the 2nd largest oil reserves country in the whole world.
France already has good oil deals with it that's why it disagrees.
yet people have to keep their eyes on the ball: 500.000 people will die for the US/UK bloodlust for oil.


Feel-good only takes a minor part of this and that is:
Bush: can't really go on with trying to catch terrorists all over the damn world, better give something concrete and useful: bomb iraq.

	20-02-2003 00:34									#71
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If the USA does go in, put up a nice democracy in time, and then the Iraqis vote in Islamist American-haters like the frontier provinces of Pakistan did recently, then what? A return to Iraq to correct the mistakes of democracy?

Just a question that I've been pondering. Does the USA have the stomach for real democracy among those it liberates?

	20-02-2003 00:39									#72
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I still say the purpose is to oust Saddam. The resulting government is of secondary concern, but I just hope it's a good one.

	20-02-2003 00:42									#73
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quote: Originally posted by DuncanK I still say the purpose is to oust Saddam.

I'm gonna have to take away your Marxist credentials now.

	20-02-2003 00:43									#74
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Repeatedly posted by Pattycakes:

quote: 500.000 people will die for the US/UK bloodlust for oil.

A perfect example of pulling a number out of one's ass and then repeating it as often as possible in the hope of convincing others that it's credible. At least you've been consistent. You managed to post it 4 times in this thread alone and not screw up the number.

As for the rest... I don't have a problem with the idea of a military provisional government, so long as the goal is a functioning democracy, and the government (US) is willing to stick with it. The problem is that I'm uncertain that democracy is the goal, and I'm reasonably certain that even if it is, we won't "see it through."

-Arrian

	20-02-2003 00:44									#75
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A: Democracy.
B: Sounds great.
A: But what about the Kurds?
B: Uhm... Well they can't have it because Turkey would intervene.
A: And the Shiites?
B: Well they can't have it because they might tend towards Iran.
A: So it's democracy for the Sunni minority.
B: Yeah, something like that...
A: Might be easier to have a homegrown dictator. Also no need to stay for long, much cheaper.
B: Yeah... I think that's it...

	20-02-2003 01:08									#76
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quote: A perfect example of pulling a number out of one's ass and then repeating it as often as possible in the hope of convincing others that it's credible. At least you've been consistent. You managed to post it 4 times in this thread alone and not screw up the number.

It is infact a UN estimate.

	20-02-2003 01:22									#77
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Cite please.

	21-02-2003 09:51									#78
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Here's the "real" story for post-war Iraq...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2003Feb20.html

...and Bush still mentioning Democracy...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2003Feb20.html

	21-02-2003 10:14									#79
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I didn't see anything on this topic in the second article, but the first article says this....

The administration is particularly keen on averting interference by other regional powers, and cites the "ability of people like the Iranians and others to go in with money and create warlords" sympathetic to their own interests, one official said. "We don't want a weak federal government that plays into the hands of regional powers" and allows Iraq to be divided into de facto spheres of influence. "We don't want the Iranians to be paying the Shiites, the Turks the Turkmen and the Saudis the Sunnis," the official, referring to some of the main groups among dozens of Iraqi tribes and ethnic and religious groups.

They want to create a strong central government where the shiites and Kurds have no power. I don't know who will have power. They also won't give power to the Baathists. They will have to look hard to find people who aren't part of any of these groups.

	21-02-2003 13:51									#80
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What's the matter guys, didn't Monkspiders thread on the evil US plot to invade Syria and Iran not satisfy you? Now its the evil US plot to subvert democracy in post war Iraq.

I guess maybe we should have left Germany and Japan right away after WWII and allowed just anyone to be voted into power cause we all know democracy always puts the right person in power no matter what.

BTW it's usually customary to allow at least enough time to see what will happen before critizisms and wild fantasys(paiktis) takes hold.

	21-02-2003 13:59									#81
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I'm gonna have to take away your Marxist credentials now.

Yes! You must vote the party line or you will be reeducated!

	21-02-2003 19:35									#82
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DanS beat me to the (first) WAPO article.

I'm getting fed up with this bullshit.
There is no convincing case whatsoever that invading Iraq, setting up a government of our choosing, and then staying there for an undetermined number of years until the whole thing gets off the ground, is worth the time, money, and, yes, lives that we are going to have to put into it. Much less any reasonable probability of success when we are done. I am appalled that Paul Wolfowitz and his like receive any serious hearing in a democratically elected government. [/rant]

There. Now I feel much better.

	21-02-2003 19:55									#83
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AS: Look at the alternative. We have been patrolling (i.e., bombing) the no-fly zones and have had sanctions on them for a decade. This isn't any good either.

	21-02-2003 20:24									#84
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Of course, if the Euros were leading the charge, they'd simply talk Saddam into surrendering without a fight (uh huh...real likely), and then summon the spirit of the Fairy Godmother of Democracy, have her wave her magic wand and make it all better overnight.

But we crude Americans can't do that, so we'll have to stick to practical, real world applications and plans....like transitional governments.

-=Vel=-

	21-02-2003 20:34									#85
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"Look at the alternative. We have been patrolling (i.e., bombing) the no-fly zones and have had sanctions on them for a decade. This isn't any good either."

And getting rid of Saddam and some other bigheads while using the Sunni clan/Baath power structure to rule Iraq as a protectorate and hold the Shiites and Kurds under the thumb is better? It's pure madness.

"But we crude Americans can't do that, so we'll have to stick to practical, real world applications and plans...."

That come around to bite you very practically into the ass.

	21-02-2003 20:40									#86
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Yep....sometimes they do.

No arguments there.

However, unlike the European mindset, that would apparently rather have america foot the bill for another 10....20....50 years of "containment" we're gonna switch things up a bit, since containment hasn't been doing a lot to change the equation, except for weaken our standing with the few friends we've got in the region.

-=Vel=-

	21-02-2003 20:41									#87
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And getting rid of Saddam and some other bigheads while using the Sunni clan/Baath power structure to rule Iraq as a protectorate and hold the Shiites and Kurds under the thumb is better? It's pure madness.

You read the article about extensive plans for de-Baathification?

	21-02-2003 20:47									#88
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"that would apparently rather have america foot the bill for another 10....20....50 years of "containment""

If the Bushies screw this one up, and I'm 99 % certain they will, you'll get some containment problems that are bigger than the current one.

Does it feel good to do "something"? Probably. But we don't need another feel good exercise.

"You read the article about extensive plans for de-Baathification?"

A while ago. Apparantly this is no longer in the cards; otherwise the idea to rely on the sunni establishment to hold Iraq together will not work.

	21-02-2003 21:37									#89
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A while ago. Apparantly this is no longer in the cards; otherwise the idea to rely on the sunni establishment to hold Iraq together will not work.

No, I meant the article that I linked. It describes a de-Baathification of Iraq, with the de-Nazification of Germany used as a model.

	21-02-2003 21:44									#90
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Ah. Ok that one says:

"Criteria by which officials would be designated as too tainted to keep their jobs are still being worked on"

"A large number of current officials would be retained."

iow, get some scapegoats, or in the best case the big criminals, but use the established power structure. Which would also be relatively close to "de-Nazification of Germany used as a model".