21-02-2003 16:30									#1
	BFM's Analysis of the Interior Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

note: this post is edited as I add more data.
All numbers now match Dominae's findings.

I made a spreadsheet with the current state of our little empire in it.

The full analysis can be found here.

The screenshots below shows the "first scenario": it is what'll happen if we research Bronze first, and the Pottery. It is not complete: probably building a Barracks is not such a good idea now, anyway.

Other scenarios can be accessed through the link.

Consider only Scenarios 6 and 7 serious options.

_______________ Scenario List _______________

1. Research BW, then Pottery. Build 3 Warriors, then a Barracks.
   Not a very good thing to do, IMHO.
   
2. Research BW, then Pottery. Build 4 Warriors, then a Granary.
   Drains the treasury too much.
   
3. Research BW, then Pottery. Build 3 Warriors, 1 NumMerc, then a Granary.
   Good, if we use the worker to chop a forest.
   
4. Research Pottery, then BW. Build 2 Warriors, then a Granary.
   A fast way to a Granary. The worker can then help build a Settler by chopping down a forest.
   
5. Research Pottery, then BW. Build 3 Warriors, then a Granary.
   The Granary, and thus the Settler, are delayed by only one turn, compared to scenario 4. The worker helps to build the Settler by chopping down a forest.
   
6. Research Pottery, then BW. Build 2 Warriors, then a Granary. Chop down a forest to help with the Granary.
   This will give us a Granary before growing to size 3, which nets a half-full food box. Settler can be ready in Turn 25. By far the quickest.
   
7. Research Pottery, then BW. Build 3 Warriors, then a Granary. Chop down the Game forest to help with the Granary.
   This will give us a Granary after growing to size 3, but gets us 3 food from the Game tile after it is chopped. Not as quick, but has the advantage of 3 warriors, and of better land use.

Last edited by BigFurryMonster on 23-02-2003 at 03:49

	21-02-2003 16:37									#2
	Put an end to popups!

This is just a scenario:

Last edited by BigFurryMonster on 21-02-2003 at 17:29

	21-02-2003 16:46									#3
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Isn't the capital designed mostly to build settlers? Why does it need a barracks first (it costs gpt, which would be wasted IMHO) and not a granary? If we chop and irrigate (if possible) the game, we can get a decent food surplus and speed up our expansion.

	21-02-2003 16:48									#4
	Inflate your Upload Space

Little mistake: W2 will take 4 turns to build. (edit) W3 will then only require 2.

Last edited by BigFurryMonster on 21-02-2003 at 16:54

	21-02-2003 16:50									#5
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Ralph: mostly correct. This is just one scenario that can be followed. It does not pretend to be the optimal choice.

	21-02-2003 17:22									#6
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(edit) Added *.xls. See first post.

Last edited by BigFurryMonster on 21-02-2003 at 17:31

	21-02-2003 18:49									#7
	Re: BFM's Analysis of the Interior Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster _______________ Scenario List _______________ Research BW, then Pottery. Build 3 Warriors, then a Barracks. Not a very good thing to do, IMHO. Research BW, then Pottery. Build 4 Warriors, then a Granary. Drains the treasury too much. Research BW, then Pottery. Build 3 Warriors, 1 NumMerc, then a Granary. Good, if we use the worker to chop a forest. Research Pottery, then BW. Build 2 Warriors, then a Granary. The fastest way to a Granary. The worker can then help build a Settler by chopping down a forest.

I thought I would copy this to the last post so that nobody misses this piece of information. Upon my request, BFM did a series of plans (thanks, BFM! ), trying to figure out what would be the completion times and waste for various scenarios.

The last two are most probably the only reasonable ones. The first one is pretty much ok in terms of getting the Granary built early (shortly before hitting pop 5, thus able to spit out a settler then in 4 turns, I believe - enjoying the escort of a Merc as a bonus). Could be made even MUCH better if we pop Pottery from the hut (skipping the Merc altogether), which may happen, if we are lucky. Also, if we pop money from the hut (quite possible), we could afford building 4 warriors and then the granary, operating on deficit budget for some time (until getting Pottery). In this scenario, we would have 2 warriors available for scouting (the other 2 military units would have to stay in Apolyton - plus, we would probably need to connect the incense).

OTOH, if we switch to Pottery now, we would be able to get to the granary a bit earlier at the expense of building 2 warriors only (one would be severely limited in his exploration endeavours, since he would have to get back to Apolyton soon to take care of pop 3 unhappiness). We would rule out the possibility of getting Pottery from the hut. At the same time, we would be doing better in this scenario, if we pop a friendly warrior from the hut. Basically, the ultra-early granary would still be there, plus we would have 2 warriors for scouting and 1 for MP duties.

Everybody, comment, please! The issue is still open!

Especially, the question is - do we want to go for the ultra-early granary?

	21-02-2003 18:53									#8
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

In retrospect, perhaps BW wasnt the right tech to START research on

but I dislike the idea of switching, even if so early.

and odds are generaly in favor of picking up pottery from a hut.

But in any case, a granary ultra early vs. a granary early, thats a toughie.

Im gonna stay fully undecided on this, untill proof is good for one side, or a poll is taken

	21-02-2003 18:53									#9
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Unhappiness should be dealt with by the luxury slider. The fourth variant is the only reasonable. Unfortunately, I can't check it, because I don't own Excel and am not into cracked copies.

	21-02-2003 19:20									#10
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

The fourth scenario may be tweaked by building a 3rd warrior before starting on the granary.

	21-02-2003 20:13									#11
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

I definitely want to research Pottery and build an early granary. If growth to size 3 by the time we get a granary is essentially inevitable, but we can squeeze in a third warrior and still get the granary before we hit size 4, I think an extra warrior would make a lot of sense. We need the extra exploration capability to help us determine what our research priorities should be after Pottery. But we need to make sure we don't push back the granary so much that we end up growing an extra pop before it's finished, thereby losing some of its benefits.

By the way, how much confidence do we have that this game will really end up on Regent? In my experience, PBEM games have a nasty habit of having happiness operate at Chieftain levels with little regard to what difficulty level was requested.








? If not, it seems reasonable to build one so we can have an extra unit out exploring.

	21-02-2003 20:16									#12
	Put an end to popups!

I'll make a 5th scenario that will explore this option.

	21-02-2003 20:41									#13
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay By the way, how much confidence do we have that this game will really end up on Regent? In my experience, PBEM games have a nasty habit of having happiness operate at Chieftain levels with little regard to what difficulty level was requested.

It is very likely that the game is really on Monarch. There is a workaround now known for the "Chieftain" bug, involving setting the game with PtW 1.04f rather than with the latest patch. I have done that myself for the internal Lego PBEM game and personally verified that it worked (by test playing until the third citizen went unhappy with no MP).

The actual players may play using 1.14f, the crucial thing is to use 1.04f to set the game up.

EDIT: mongoose201 of 1BC, who set the game up, was informed about the workaround and adviced on how to set the game up truly on Monarch. That's why I believe the game will really be on Monarch. We shall see in 20 turns...

	21-02-2003 20:52									#14
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Added 5th Scenario and corrected Treasury mistakes.

	21-02-2003 20:59									#15
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On Monarch: 2nd citizen is born content.

We should have no problem getting the luxary hooked up before the city grows to size 3.

	21-02-2003 21:01									#16
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If we go for the granary, we won't have the worker capacity to hook up the luxury. But a couple of turns with the luxury slider pays off later greatly.

	21-02-2003 21:07									#17
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We'll have no need for either the luxury or the slider for a while. If the city grows to 3, we'll have one warrior in it to keep the happiness. Then we can build a settler to drop the pop back again.

	21-02-2003 21:46									#18
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster We'll have no need for either the luxury or the slider for a while. If the city grows to 3, we'll have one warrior in it to keep the happiness. Then we can build a settler to drop the pop back again.

This would be not very wise. A city with a granary usually won't want to build a settler at size 3, because this would slow down the growth. The city has to grow and stay at a size, where it builds a settler food-wise and shield-wise in the same time. This is usually the case between size 4 and 6.

	21-02-2003 21:52									#19
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Interesting point. Is this actually the fastest way to expand? I usually build a settler at size 3.

	21-02-2003 22:08									#20
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quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster Interesting point. Is this actually the fastest way to expand? I usually build a settler at size 3.

Um, yes. At minimum you should float between 2 and 4, sometimes higher. You want to optimize the growth and production from the "low" population to the "high" population, so that you get the lowest turnaround for settler/spearman pairs.

E_T said in the other thread that he foresaw a turnaround of 10 turns floating from 2 to 4.

	21-02-2003 22:27									#21
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

BFM, very nice analysis! I did pretty much the same thing myself, but threw away all the "bad data".

Scenario 5 is the best one, by far. It puts us a Settler ahead compared to the other scenarios (see my analysis in the Turn 1 thread...I can provide the exact sequence of moves if you like). That is waaayyy more important, than a Barracks, Merc., research, extra Warriors, whatever. I can see no good reason for preferring another course of action.

Therefore, the only substantial question is whether to research Pottery or Bronze Working first. The reason it has to be Pottery is that scenario 5 does not work if we get Bronze Working first! We would have to use either Barracks or the Pyramids for our Granary prebuild. If the answer is Barracks, we'll complete it long before Pottery gets researched. If the answer is Pyramids, we cannot use a chop to speed up the Granary, which is critical if we want to prevent the city from gettting too big. A hybrid strategy (Barracks, chop, switch to Pyramids) does not work because the game does not allow you to do the switch.

Ninot mentioned in another thread that all this depends too much on guesswork and probabilities. Not at all. By getting Pottery first, we're taking matters into our own hands and will be on schedule. The Hut will be a bonus (which is as it should be...never rely on the outcome of a Hut).


Dominae

	21-02-2003 22:50									#22
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

As I recall in my English game before I put it temporarly on hold and moved it to a seperate directory (it was boring me that the same basic things were happening as my last game which was as the Japs), I had London boucing between 5 and 3 on straight settler builds after the Granery during REX.

I'm now playing Greece on a compeltely different style map.

	21-02-2003 22:57									#23
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

I'll point this out because I'm the one who did a similar analysis for the RP Team a while back for our capital.

When playing on higher difficulty levels, the value of building a temple in your capital can sometimes help expansion even more than building a granary (depending on the constraints of the situation... we had some interesting constraints I factored in). The reason is that you can afford to conduct your settler production cycle between pops 3 and 5 at monarch level (for instance) w/o unrest rather than between pops 1 and 3 (or 2 and 4 and use either luxury slider or specialist at 4). This helps increase trade and produce more mlitary units in between settlers due to increased production. It might seem small, but it can be a substantial boost over a long period of time.

This assumes an absense of luxuries (though each luxury really only reduces the difficulty level effectively by 1 each), which looking at our start location in this game is pretty much the case.

However, I only ran numbers for a religious civ where temples only cost 30 shields, so things obviously change when you're looking at 60 shield temple -vs- 60 shield granary.

I'd be interested in some of our guys here from the strategy forum have looked at that.

The other thing I'm interested to hear on is that I remember reading a strategy forum thread about the blessing/curse of granaries. There were varrying opinions in that strategy forum thread, but I seem tor recall that the growing consensus after all of the mathematical analysis was that granaries are best suited for when you have some given critical mass of expansion room. Under that critical mass, an early granary will hurt you more than it will help you. Above that critical mass, it will be an enormous boon.

But that's just the impresison I got from skimming the thread. If any of you guys who actually participated in that would like to comment, it would be greatly appreciated

	21-02-2003 23:06									#24
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Arnelos, a common strat now in the Strat forum is to use "Settler/Worker" pumps. These cities grow to size "big" (5 or 6), then crank out Settlers or Workers as quickly as possible, with a military unit or two in between. This works extremely well if the city in question is using a Granary to grow back to optimal size.

Unhappiness is never a problem, since you can always use the Luxury slider to take care of that. At Monarch, and assuming we hook up our Incense, we will only need to keep the slider at 10% or 20% to keep the Settler pump happy. This will slow down our research somewhat, but this will be more than made up for by our very rapid expansion.


Dominae

	21-02-2003 23:48									#25
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Arnelos, yes, that's a good summary.

Dominae, I'm thinking that the 10% lux slider would only have been needed if we were on Emperor level, and we won't need them on Monarch level at all.

	22-02-2003 02:59									#26
	Got spare money?

OK, may I have a question? It did not occured to me before, but chatting with E_T, one of his side-notes made me realize this:

Apolyton is going to grow on turns 11, 21, and 31. I haven't seen a reasonable analysis showing the granary being built before the pop 2->3 increase (turn 21). Thus, I suppose that the earliest pop growth the granary would be actually effective would be on turn 31 (pop 3->4), right?

Now the question: why are we rushing to have the granary SO early, if we will actually benefit from having it only on turn 31? We will just have to pay the upkeep of 1 gpt for every turn before that moment...

If this reasoning is correct, then all we need is to finish the granary before or on turn 30, thus discovering Pottery on or before turn 29, correct? But that we would be able to do even with BW first, Pottery second (keeping the chance to pop Pottery from the hut) and 4-5 warriors produced before the granary build. Or am I missing something basic?

Be so kind and try pointing out any wrong point I am doing... I am really not sure... but this sounds just right to me.

	22-02-2003 03:10									#27
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

I'll get back to you in under 30 minutes with a (hopefully good) explanation, vondrack.


Dominae

	22-02-2003 04:07									#28
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Here's the queue I was thinking of:

1 Settler founds city; Worker moves onto Game Forest; begin Bronze Working
2 Warrior 3S (Game); Worker begins Road; switch to Pottery
3 Warrior 5S (Bonus Grassland)
4 Warrior 6S (normal Grassland)
5 Warrior 7S (normal Grassland); Worker done Road, move onto Hut (assume map)
6 Warrior done (roaded Game); Worker begin Mine
7 Warrior 3S
8 Warrior 6S
9 Warrior 9S; Worker done Mine, begin Road
10 Warrior done, begin Barracks
11 Barracks 4S; capital grows, borders expand; Worker done Road, move to Forest
12 Barracks 9S; Worker begin Clear Forest
13 Barracks 14S
14 Barracks 19S
15 Barracks 24S; Pottery discovered, begin Bronze Working
16 Granary 29S
17 Granary 44S; Worker done chop, begin Road
18 Granary 49S
19 Granary 54S; Worker done Road, move to Bonus Grassland
20 Granary 59S, switch one laborer to Incense (no growth); Worker begin Mine
21 Granary complete, start Warrior, switch laborer back to roaded Grassland
22 Warrior 5S; capital grows (Food box half full)
23 Warrior done, begin Settler, switch laborer; Worker done Mine, begin Road
24 Settler 7S
25 Settler 14S; Worker done Road, move to Game Forest and begin Clear Forest
26 Settler 21S
27 Settler 28S; capital grows (size 4)
28 Settler done, begin another
29 Settler 5S; city 2 founded, begin Warrior
30 Settler 18S; Warrior 3S; Bronze Working discovered; Worker done chop, begin Mine
31 Settler 22S; capital grows (size 3); Warrior 6S
32 Settler 26S, move laborer to roaded Grassland; Warrior done, queue another
33 Settler done, start Warrior; Warrior 3S; Worker done Mine, move to Bonus Grassland

Edit: At this point, we would probably want to grow the capital to around size 6 or so, leaving us a nice window to crank out military units or whatever.

There's two things to notice here. In the first turn I bolded, the chop gets the current project up to 44 Shields, which is over the cost of a Barracks. This speed would be wasted if we did not have Pottery. In other words, Pottery does not come in time if we research it second. Also, in the next bolded turn, I acutally slow down growth in the capital to make most effective use of the Granary (I learned this trick from nbarclay... thanks!).

This may not be the best queue, but I defy anyone else to expand faster than this.


Dominae

Last edited by Dominae on 22-02-2003 at 06:09

	22-02-2003 04:15									#29
	Put an end to popups!

Here's a screenshot of turn 33 from the scenario above:

	22-02-2003 04:39									#30
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Good job, Dominae. My one reservation is that it leaves us awfully short of warriors for early exploration. On the other hand, with the second city in place, we could crank out four more warriors from some combination of our two cities in fairly short order and then our exploration could take off nicely without putting us over the free unit support threshold. In contrast, if we delayed the granary more, we could get an extra exploring warrior out early but delay being able to get any more warriors past that out in the field (unless we want to pay gold for upkeep).

Nathan