21-02-2003 17:15									#1
	UN Inspectors: Iraq neglecting promises. Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

National Public Radio (A politically left of center broadcaster) did an excellent piece on Iraqi complience with UN inspectors tonight. Rajiv Chandrasekaran is a reporter who works for NPR and writes a column for the Washington Post.

Here's a summary of his NPR piece from their web site followed by a quote of his article which ran in todays Washington Post.
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U.N. Inspectors: Iraq Neglecting Promises
Seemingly emboldened by anti-war sentiment at the United Nations and in world capitals, Iraq's government is not following through on promises of increased cooperation with U.N. weapons inspectors. That's the view of U.N. inspectors in Baghdad. NPR's Melissa Block talks with Washington Post reporter Rajiv Chandrasekaran. Feb. 20, 2003

quote: BAGHDAD, Iraq, Feb. 19 -- President Saddam Hussein's government, apparently emboldened by antiwar sentiment at the U.N. Security Council and in worldwide street protests, has not followed through on its promises of increased cooperation with U.N. arms inspectors, according to inspectors in Iraq. No Iraqi scientist involved in biological, chemical or missile technology has consented to a private interview with the inspectors since Feb. 7, the day before the two chief U.N. inspectors arrived here for talks with Iraqi officials. The United Nations also has not received additional documents about past weapons programs, despite the government's pledge to set up a commission to scour the country for evidence sought by the inspectors, U.N. officials said. One U.N. official here said that since Friday's Security Council meeting, "we have not seen any positive moves on the part of Iraq." Another charged, "They are not fulfilling their promises." If Iraq does not move quickly to arrange more private interviews and provide more evidence, the chief inspector, Hans Blix, likely will deliver a more downcast assessment of Iraqi cooperation when he next reports to the Security Council, a U.N. official said. A critical report from Blix could prove instrumental to U.S. and British efforts to build support for a new council resolution authorizing force against Iraq. In news conferences and interviews, Iraqi officials have glossed over warnings from Blix -- and from governments of Security Council members opposed to war -- that Iraq must take additional steps to satisfy a disarmament resolution the council passed unanimously on Nov. 8. The overriding analysis among officials here is that Iraq has complied and that everyone, save the U.S. and British governments, now views Iraq as the aggrieved party. "We have done what was asked of us -- and the whole world sees that," a senior Iraqi official said, noting that Iraq last week acceded to U.N. demands for a presidential decree banning weapons of mass destruction and to allow U-2 surveillance planes to fly over the country. "All these criticisms are just raised by the Americans as a way to justify their aggression." Newspapers here, which are state-controlled, have pushed a similar line in the wake of the protests, proclaiming that Hussein's government parried U.S. efforts to forge an international coalition to confront Iraq. Babel, a paper run by Hussein's eldest son, Uday, said the United States and Britain face "humiliating international isolation." "The antiwar demonstrations across the world reflect a new chapter in the global balance of power," the paper said in an editorial earlier this week. "Everyone has noted that a new multipolar world is emerging. Iraq, with its oil, its resistance, its wise leaders and its strategic vision is an important and fundamental actor in this multipolar world." Iraqi officials, displaying a similar confidence, have shifted their message from "We are complying" to a more insistent call for the lifting of economic sanctions imposed after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. U.N. officials and diplomats here express belief that Hussein's government may have misread the position of most council members or may be seeking to continue a game of brinkmanship by parceling out concessions at the last minute to stymie U.S. efforts to generate consensus for military action. "They are feeling: The world opinion is with us. We can resist further pressure. We have time. We can play with the U.S. and U.K.," a U.N. official said. "This is very dangerous." Among the most visible issues testing Iraq's compliance is the ability of inspectors to conduct private interviews with Iraqi scientists. The U.N. resolution authorizing the latest round of inspections requires Iraq to provide "private access" to anyone the inspectors wish to interview. But for weeks, as the inspectors asked to conduct confidential sessions, every scientist they approached insisted on having a government official present. Iraqi officials said the scientists were worried about having their testimony mischaracterized. But U.N. and U.S. officials contend that Hussein's government prevented scientists from speaking in private because of fear they might spill secrets about banned weapons programs. Then, on Feb. 6, as Iraq was facing growing pressure to demonstrate more cooperation with the inspectors, it announced that one of its scientists had agreed to conduct a private interview. The next day, two others also consented to confidential questioning. But since then, the inspectors have been unable to interview any other nuclear, biological or missile expert in private. They have asked to question 28 non-nuclear scientists, but most have insisted on having a government representative present. Although five non-nuclear scientists did agree to questioning without a government representative, they each insisted on making a tape recording of the session. The inspectors refused to go forward with those interviews because of concern that making a tape, which likely would wind up in the government's hands, would dissuade the scientists from providing candid answers. "The tape recorder has been the stumbling block," one U.N. official said. The International Atomic Energy Agency has conducted several taped interviews of nuclear scientists. It has agreed in some cases to allow the scientists to retain the tape; in other cases, the agency kept the tape. The interviews with nuclear scientists, however, are less controversial because U.N. experts already have said they do not believe Iraq has an active nuclear weapons program. Another test of Iraq's compliance likely will emerge when Blix formally informs Iraq that its Al Samoud 2 missiles violate a 93-mile range limit imposed by U.N. resolutions after the 1991 Persian Gulf War, U.N. officials said. Blix has not revealed what he will demand of Hussein's government. U.N. officials said he could insist that Iraq destroy the missiles, modify them to reduce their range or disassemble them. Over the past few days, U.N. inspectors have visited several military facilities where the missiles are assembled, tested and stored. A U.N. spokesman here said metallic identification tags have been placed on "dozens" of the missiles. The inspectors have identified and tagged 380 rocket engines that Blix said were illegally imported for use in the Al Samoud missiles. Iraqi officials have not said what they would do if they were ordered to destroy the missiles, which could be a potentially valuable asset in fighting any invading U.S. forces. Foreign Minister Naji Sabri on Tuesday called the issue too hypothetical for a response now. Blix also has requested that the government turn over a list of people who participated in what Iraq said was the destruction of its biological weapons in the early 1990s. Iraq handed over a list earlier this month of those involved in the destruction of chemical weapons. The U.N. official here said he expects Iraq eventually to relent on the interviews and perhaps the missiles only if demands from Blix and Security Council members are aggressive enough. "What we've seen is that without pressure, Iraq is not going to cooperate with the inspectors," he said.

	21-02-2003 17:39									#2
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It's also interesting that a month has gone by since Iraq promised to let the UN interview Iraqi scientists without Iraqi secret police being present but so far it hasn't happened. They made the promise but have reneged the same goes for Iraq's promise to allow U2 over flights and for them to stop holding the families of scientists hostage.

	21-02-2003 18:14									#3
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Odd. According to my local news that happened a couple of times before Blix gave his second report.

	21-02-2003 18:20									#4
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I feel sorry for the Scientists, who's lives are no doubt in turmoil .. Its bad enough being an iraqi, but being one noticed by the government must be terrible.

I would refuse to talk, if I thought my family would be punished ..

Let saddam play his games, as he's only storing up trouble for himself

	21-02-2003 18:23									#5
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According to reports the Iraqis and the UN had negotiated a solution to the problem of interviewing Iraqi scientists, authorizing U2 over flights, and allowing the inspectors to travel by helicopter so they can arrive at sites before the Iraqis can move things. Since the protests the Iraqis have reneged on all of these agreements.

	21-02-2003 18:24									#6
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The NPR piece is really fair and balanced. Click on the link I provided in the first post and you can get a streaming audio feed.

	21-02-2003 19:27									#7
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So those of us who think that it ain't quite time yet to roll over Iraq are supposed to feel guilty?
"Now look what you've done! It's really YOUR fault that we HAVE to invade Iraq now?"

I don't think so...even if I'll admit that the diplomatic strategy of imminent threat is not as strong now as before the demonstrations.

Saddam and his advisers - like Bush and his to some extent - are deliberately misreading and abusing the public sentiment. Annoying and provocative as it is, it hardly comes as a surprise and doesn't really change anything, just set things back. Unfortunately at the moment we are WAY beyond rational reasoning and well into the domain of a ****-swinging contest.

Anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of middle-eastern culture knows that the bark is much worse that the bite (even if Saddam has a history of some serious biting). These people say "I'm gonna kill you" in every other sentence, this is what happens when your culture is bound up on honour and shame rather than reson and empathy.
Saddam is cynical in the extreme, but he is no idiot. People who make it to the top seldom are. Even if he does possess - or strive to possess - WMD's, even his neighbors are opposed to this war, even though they are in much greater danger than the US of being hit.

Very few people seem to think that Saddam should be left alone no matter what. It's just that - like in capital punishment cases - when it comes to preemptive warmongering, innocent until proven guilty as a universal legal principle must be adhered to with the outmost rigour. And the US pretty much has the guy nailed down already, he is in no position to invade anything as long as the US maintains air superiority in the area.

As for left-wing angles on the subject, look at what the Cato Institute thinks:

http://www.catoinstitute.org/resear...ter-030202.html

It might not surprise to learn that I'm more into the NYTimes/Krugman angle (registration req'd):

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/21/opinion/21KRUG.html

	21-02-2003 19:39									#8
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That's the view many of the UN weapon's inspectors are telling reporters; that Iraq has been emboldened by the recent anti-war rallies and is now reneging on promises to provide access to inspectors.

Don't shot the messenger.

	21-02-2003 19:45									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Odd. According to my local news that happened a couple of times before Blix gave his second report.

I read that too.

	21-02-2003 19:51									#10
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quote: As for left-wing angles on the subject, look at what the Cato Institute thinks:

Cato isn't left wing.

	21-02-2003 20:08									#11
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I'm not denying that Iraq is taking this opportunity to rub it in Bush' & Co.'s face. And I don't think it's a good idea. Like I tell my kids: The big kids are not allowed to pound on the little kids, but the little kids would be incredibly stupid to deliberately provoke them.
I'm just saying that this was to be expected as Saddam has obviously only one diplomatic card left to play, short of total humiliation (which really isn't an option for the likes of Saddam): Acting out as rallying point for every arab who doesn't like the permanent US military presence in the region.
The intimidation that brought the UN inspectors so far, is about to fail due to the incompatibilities of the US, French and German political interests (notice the absence of the UK, they have eliminated themselves from the game, at least publicly, by effectively acting as US ambassadors).
Now the need is for some really skillfull diplomatic coordination on the part of the Bush administration, who is rapidly approaching a political no-win situation almost as fast as Saddam. My fear is that this may prove too much of a gordic knot and Bush - like Alexander - will reach for the sword, no matter the consequences.

As for shooting the messenger, sorry if I came on too strong, but I couldn't help taking your signature as an indication of your stance.

	21-02-2003 20:13									#12
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Cato isn't left wing.

Ahh, sorry, all these fancy words and I can't tell the difference between left and right. My bad!

I meant right, of course.

	21-02-2003 20:14									#13
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Libertarian.

	21-02-2003 20:16									#14
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Because they haven't taken their medication.

	21-02-2003 20:21									#15
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"Nothing will ever be attempted, if all possible objections must first be overcome." - Samuel Johnson

"It's also interesting that a month has gone by since Iraq promised to let the UN interview Iraqi scientists without Iraqi secret police being present but so far it hasn't happened. "

Close. You're short by about 11 years and 11 months.

	21-02-2003 20:21									#16
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Sorry, Dino, I edited the the post, so now outsiders will be completely confused.

I know, don't edit. Point taken. I'll never edit again. And sorry again

	21-02-2003 20:56									#17
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Violation of 1441 has occured. The question is: Will the security council act or become irrelevant? The time for debate was BEFORE the resolution. The UN must act now or lose all credibility.

This article simply bears out what has been happening for the last 12 years. These exact tactics are what CAUSED 1441 to be implemented. Now that it has, the world should respond.

To allow this to continue will make the UN nothing more than a platform to voice views. It will encourage competeing power blocs to emerge, and will generally worsen the entire worlds ability to act with any unity.

Message to France: YOU VOTED FOR 1441!!! Remember?????????

	21-02-2003 21:07									#18
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Further evidence Hussein isn't the cunning genious some people make him out to be. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see that his snotty, gloating reaction to the protests is just going to create further antipathy and probably dull some of the enthusiasm of those against the war.

To then go and start resisting out of an imagined mandate for non-compliance really makes him look stupid.

	21-02-2003 21:25									#19
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Some more comments from UN inspectors:

Inspectors Call U.S. Tips 'Garbage'

	21-02-2003 21:26									#20
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Well, he's playing for a different audience than us westerners.
Take into consideration the general sentiment towards Bush in the Middle-East and the quite different media picture painted there and he's posing himself to be the greatest martyr in contemporary history.
I'm not saying I like what he do, I most certainly do not, but given who he is - a man who probably knows his past look better than his future and has a compulsary need for admiration - I'd say it's not as stupid as it may seem, just hard to grasp for those of us who tend to put survival above anything else (no offense intended)

	21-02-2003 23:05									#21
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I don't know why Hussein thinks the protests will save him. Bush has no intention of not going forward. WoMD are just an excuse. Iraq is the test case for Wolfowitz's new doctrine of preemptive strikes. If we can get away with it, then in the future, anyone who might become a threat to the US is in danger. Furthermore, the war will seriously disrupt European unity, which the US would be very happy to see. No sense letting a new superpower arise.

	21-02-2003 23:08									#22
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Che...

good post Oerdin

	21-02-2003 23:48									#23
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Saddam is just trying to stall. His only hope is that the world stands up against the US and threaten some kind of consequences for this. It's not going to happen.

	22-02-2003 00:27									#24
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It's only natural that Saddam Hussein would feel emboldened by the recent anti-war activities across the planet. He doesn't seem to realize that most of the anti-war folks are protesting the coming war, not necessarily marching because they *like* Saddam and want him to remain in power.

Gatekeeper

	22-02-2003 00:31									#25
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quote: President Saddam Hussein's government, apparently emboldened by antiwar sentiment at the U.N. Security Council and in worldwide street protests, has not followed through on its promises of increased cooperation with U.N. arms inspectors, according to inspectors in Iraq.

unnamed inspectors? right.....

	22-02-2003 00:39									#26
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This seems to be the law of unintended consequences. The protesters didn't want to help Saddam but by default Saddam is the one to gain by their actions. The same sort of situation existed to the Vietnam War because every time the North Vietnamese would think about seeking an armistice (like when Nixon started unrestricted bombing of the north) there would be a large anti-war protest and the north would decide to hang in there a little longer.

	22-02-2003 00:39									#27
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Why on earth are U2 flights necessary? They already have spy satellite footage.

	22-02-2003 00:46									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin The same sort of situation existed to the Vietnam War because every time the North Vietnamese would think about seeking an armistice (like when Nixon started unrestricted bombing of the north) there would be a large anti-war protest and the north would decide to hang in there a little longer.

That's an interesting way of putting it, since it was South Vietnam that was holding back. In fact, they were told in 1968 that if they held out longer, they could expect a better deal from a Nixon Presidency than the deal that was on the table. The collapse of the Paris peace talks hurt the Humphrey campaign, helping Nixon to win. Four years later, the exact same deal that had been on the table in 1968 was signed, 25,000 American lives and more than a million Vietnamese lives extra. Talk about treason.

	22-02-2003 00:49									#29
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Sandman: Apparently the U2s can provide 24 hour a day surveillance and the satellites cannot. A least that's what I heard.

MarkG: The inspector isn't named but this is a rather common practice in journalism when dealing with leaks of a political nature. Every so often in the U.S. you hear about a journalist who goes to jail for refusing to divulge his sources. Basically wither you believe the report boils down to wither you think the broadcaster is reputable or not. I'd vote that NPR is reputable and I bet I could even get a few people from the other side to back me up on that. NPR is no Guardian; it's the American equivalent to the CBC or the BBC.

	22-02-2003 03:37									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin That's the view many of the UN weapon's inspectors are telling reporters; that Iraq has been emboldened by the recent anti-war rallies and is now reneging on promises to provide access to inspectors. Don't shot the messenger.

Which is fine. Most of the objection to the war has been along the lines of give the inspectors more time, and diplomatic options more of a chance. If Saddam misreads that into thinking he's immune, then he's sealed his fate, but at least his actions will make for greater international and arab world support for his removal, which is crucial to stabilizing a post-Saddam Iraq.

Sandman - spy satelites have known limitations (well known to Saddam, since the Reagan administration gave the Iraqi government raw take from KH-11 and KH-12 satellite intel on Iranian troop positions) that allows for easy concealment of many things. You know what their orbital tracks are, so you know exactly when they'll be back, the lighting conditions, and the angle of the imagery relative to the location of the objects or activities you want to disguise. The satellite tracking data is available internationally, from a number of sources, and can be verified with large amateur ground based telescopes.

U2's have lots of loiter time, and go when and where they please.