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OliverFA is offline OliverFA
King
Leeds, UK
Sep 2002
time: 06:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 01:55
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Apolytonian Intelligence (A.I.) Tools Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

In this thread the methods used to gather and figure info are exposed fore everyone to check and comment them.

OliverFA is offline OliverFA
King
Leeds, UK
Sep 2002
time: 06:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 02:07
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The average score analysis Tired of ads?

The score presented every turn in the game screen is the average of the scores of every turn up to the date. Every turn a civ receives the following score:

- For every land tile owned by the civ: 1 point
- For every content citizen: 1 point
- For every happy citizen: 2 points
- For every unhappy citizen: 0 points

This score is multipled by the difficult level. In our case, as we have ended playing in regent, that's 3 points.

The average score is the sum of all the scores every turn divided by the total turns played and rounded down.

This analysis gives a range for the actual score of each team. This range gets bigger as game goes on, because each time the score acumulated from the previous turn is bigger and the impact of the present turn score is smaller.

Donegeal is offline Donegeal
King
Apolyton's Resident Law Enforcement Officer. Founder of the Glory of War, Champions of Apolyton!
Jul 2002
time: 05:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 02:45
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The Discovery of wines revealed.

Today, when I looked at the F11 screen, I saw that our approval rating was 50% but that our rank had droped to #2. At this stage of the game that meant that one team out there had all of its citizens happy (all one of them). to see what I could do to immitate this, I moved our Lux slider up to 20%. This gave us a happy citizen, a 100% approval rating and a first place score in that category. But who on earth is going to move the lux slider up to 20% within the first 3 turns of the game at regent level? No body! That meant that someone had managed to get a Lux item in their trade network in the first three turns.

We are the fifth team to play.

Back on turn one, when there was only 4 cities founded (one had choosen to move their settler), we all noticed that we were in fourth place in GNP on the F11 screen. This meant that the three teams that founded their cities before us all had +1 commerce on us. The easist way to get plus one commerce is via river. But there is also Lux/Bonus/Strategic resourses that give extra commerce. I looked through all these resourses to determine which type would still give at least 2 food and give an extra commerce. I saw that wines gives a +1 to food and a +1 to commerce. Wines are found on hills or plains. That means that wines is the only resourse that people would work on the first turn of the game. Now at this point, I assumed the worst. That one of the teams that founded their city before us founded it next to wines and not a river.

By turn three, my assumed wine had been connected. Looking at ET worker spreadsheet, I noticed that an industrious worker can build a road on hills in 3 turns. So, in order for an industrious civ to have connected a hill with wine by turn three, they would have had to do so by having their worker start to road on turn one and move their settler. For a non industrious civ to build a road on a plain, they would have had to had their worker start roading on turn one and move the settler. The other way to connect a lux to a trade network this quickly is to found the city directly on the lux. This means that none of the three teams that founded a city before us founded it on a lux (as we were all tied in the approval rating category). It also means that the team with the wines is the one that did not found their city before us or it is one of the teams that did so after us. This also means that an industrious civ could have founded their city and moved their worker to a plains with wines and started to road on turn 2 (industrious works road a flat tile in 2 turns) and connected the lux by the time we got the save. That means that it was one of the industious civs before us. Which of course meant that I had no idea who has the wines already and that my head was starting to spin.

This is the secrete of wines revealed. Thank you.

Sub-Director Donegeal

BigFurryMonster is offline BigFurryMonster
Emperor
EMPEROR of Cats
Feb 2002
time: 06:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 03:04 Visit BigFurryMonster's homepage!
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You had too much wine.

vondrack is offline vondrack

Emperor
Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002
time: 06:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 04:02
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Well, I may be just talking crap, but... as I've already suggested in another thread... the score of the French team just doesn't fit the usual curve... I suspect THEY connected a luxury.

The reason I believe so is that the score is based mostly on territory and happy faces ATM. The territory must be the same 9 tiles as everybody else. The only difference then may be a happy face... if they founded their capitol on Turn 2 and still managed to get 11 points instead of 10 on that turn, it means they either built atop of a luxury, or started roading the luxury on turn 1, moving the settler one tile over, settling on the next turn, when their industrious worker finished the road.

Is this possible? You know, I am not that much into these intel things, but this I can't get off my mind...

Last edited by vondrack on 24-02-2003 at 04:07

bigfree1
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  Old Post 24-02-2003 04:22
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quote:
Originally posted by vondrack
Well, I may be just talking crap, but... as I've already suggested in another thread... the score of the French team just doesn't fit the usual curve... I suspect THEY connected a luxury.

The reason I believe so is that the score is based mostly on territory and happy faces ATM. The territory must be the same 9 tiles as everybody else. The only difference then may be a happy face... if they founded their capitol on Turn 2 and still managed to get 11 points instead of 10 on that turn, it means they either built atop of a luxury, or started roading the luxury on turn 1, moving the settler one tile over, settling on the next turn, when their industrious worker finished the road.

Is this possible? You know, I am not that much into these intel things, but this I can't get off my mind...


I'm pretty sure that would mean that the worker and settler had to start out on top of the luxury or next to it; and I've never seen it start on top, maybe right next to it, but not on top of it. So I would say that they moved their settler to the luxury and built on top of it on the next turn. That would indeed explain the France's score.

vondrack is offline vondrack

Emperor
Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002
time: 06:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 04:44
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Another observation:

On Turn 4, we dropped down to #2 in Population... while we were #1 on the turn before. This, IMHO, means that one of the teams settling only on Turn 2 has a 3-food tile in the inner ring of their capitol (as 3*2=2*3, but 4*2<3*3). Most probably the team before us, Possum (makes sense - they moved one tile over to get the tile...), as the F11 reading should not be updated for the French yet...

Donegeal is offline Donegeal
King
Apolyton's Resident Law Enforcement Officer. Founder of the Glory of War, Champions of Apolyton!
Jul 2002
time: 05:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 04:53
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oliverfa did an analysis of Grenoule (or however you spell it) score. It is confirmed. They have the Wines (the french have wines... go figure). And based on the score of turn two, they must have moved their settler one tile and settled on the lux. Weather it is on a plain or hill has yet to be determined.

(Wow, I didn't realize that so much information was given about the other teams. This is way cool!)

Donegeal is offline Donegeal
King
Apolyton's Resident Law Enforcement Officer. Founder of the Glory of War, Champions of Apolyton!
Jul 2002
time: 05:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 05:02
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quote:
Originally posted by vondrack
Another observation:

On Turn 4, we dropped down to #2 in Population... while we were #1 on the turn before. This, IMHO, means that one of the teams settling only on Turn 2 has a 3-food tile in the inner ring of their capitol (as 3*2=2*3, but 4*2<3*3). Most probably the team before us, Possum (makes sense - they moved one tile over to get the tile...), as the F11 reading should not be updated for the French yet...


I think you are close, but just a little off. If you look further down on the F11, we are in third place in family size. I think that one team had a three food tile in their inner circle radius to start and that a second (most likely Elucidian) moved one tile to get next to a three food tile. If I am correct, our Population will drop to at least #3 on turn 5 or 6.

vondrack is offline vondrack

Emperor
Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002
time: 06:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 05:03
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double post

Theseus is offline Theseus

Emperor
The warmonger formerly known as rpodos. Gathering Storm! Apolyton Spirit!!
Apr 2002
time: 00:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 05:09
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BTW, it occurs to me that we are pretty well know for the Strat forum, and yes, competitors are definitely checking it.

Shouldn;t we be doing the reverse?

It's all legal...

Aro is offline Aro
Emperor
Ipanema
Jul 2002
time: 02:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 05:13 Visit Aro's homepage!
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Guys, I'm impressed. Great work!
I don't know if the other teams are doing the same, but we should not underestimate them...

Btw, my two cents: some of our strategists have an excellent knowledge about the other strategic fora (like CFC). What about a brief resume of the most important players of the adversaries (the ones we know ) and their skills and styles? Is it possible? Could help a lot, if we're going to make our analysis in that sophisticated way...

Aro is offline Aro
Emperor
Ipanema
Jul 2002
time: 02:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 05:14 Visit Aro's homepage!
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Cross post, Theseus!

Theseus is offline Theseus

Emperor
The warmonger formerly known as rpodos. Gathering Storm! Apolyton Spirit!!
Apr 2002
time: 00:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 05:29
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Great minds think alike.

I'll tell you who worries me the most: the GOTM guys at CFC (Zachriel especially), and the Realms Beyond guys, about whom I know very little except that they are exceptionally proficient... I don;t know if any of them have joined any of the IDG teams.

civman2000 is offline civman2000
Emperor
of the Martian Empire
Jun 2001
time: 23:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 07:00
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quote:
Great minds think alike.

And so do yours .

I think it's quite amazing we can find out so much info about the other teams from just a few numbers. However, i wonder whether knowing these details will have any practical value...What could we possibly do with them?

bigfree1
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  Old Post 24-02-2003 07:35
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We can't 'do' much now ; but in the future these little tidbits of information can help us draw a better picture of our opponents civ. Plus looking at these things now gives us practice (and something to do ) for the future.

DAVOUT is offline DAVOUT
King
AUERSTADT
Jun 2002
time: 05:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 17:00
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One of the use of these little tidbits of information is to assess quite precisely the actual strength of the other teams when we make the first contact, and to adapt our attitude correspondingly.

E_T is offline E_T
Emperor
Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 19:18
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quote:
Originally posted by bigfree1


I'm pretty sure that would mean that the worker and settler had to start out on top of the luxury or next to it; and I've never seen it start on top, maybe right next to it, but not on top of it. So I would say that they moved their settler to the luxury and built on top of it on the next turn. That would indeed explain the France's score.


I was playing Carthage in one game and had started out right on top of a Wine. I Moved and built my city the next turn and had the worker stay and road it. So it is possible.

E_T

E_T is offline E_T
Emperor
Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 19:41
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Vondrack pointed out to me the other day in chat, that there was a listing someplace (i think he said on CFC) that showed the different variables that goes into the F11 screen and some other things that are calculated during the game. Could someone please post a link to that (or something similar).

E_T

OliverFA is offline OliverFA
King
Leeds, UK
Sep 2002
time: 06:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 20:22
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E_T, I'm thinking you are asking for that

http://www.civfanatics.com/civ3acad_demographics.shtml

Beta is offline Beta

Deity
Prowling in a PBEM near you!
Nov 2002
time: 00:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 22:16 Visit Beta<br><a href=/members><img src=/forums/images/lifer-icon.gif border=0></a><BR>'s homepage!
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In response to some of the discussion above, and Theseus' inquiry as to who was playing for CFC, I recall that they posted team list over a week ago. Here it is. Also, one of the expectations of the game is that a team list be available publicly at the home site. We meet this requirement, as anybody can click on the civ group and see who we are. I will see what other team lists are readily available.

Anyways, CFC's list, as of 11 days ago, fyi. Posted by Goonie. Octavion X is currently their 'player'.

Re: PBEM DG United Nations Rules and FAQ.
Thursday, February 13, 2003 - 7:15:56 PM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Complete Citizen List (not final)
Chieftess
Immortal
Zarn
Falcon02
FortyJ
Stuck_As_a_Mac
Goonie
CivGeneral
Padma
Grandmaster
WildFire444
Furry Spatula
naervod
wtiberon
Civanator
Cheetah
donsig
Mark Phisher
Plexus
Veera Anlai
Gingerbread Man
Cyc ( IS only 16 )
Octavian X
Ehecatl Atzin
Mariner II
Vander
Strider
Shabbaman
zmei-gorynych
I_am_sin7
Fier Canadien
gunning1
Burebista

Those who are VERY new and Suspicous.
I_am_sin7
Burebista ( He knew about our earlier spy probelm on his first post.)
Mark Phisher

Trip is offline Trip
Firaxis Games
Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 22:27 Visit Trip's homepage!
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Thanks BH, pretty useful info. Especially now that I plant myself in the CFC main chatroom.

I guess that means that Apolyton has the largest team, by a massive margin...

civman2000 is offline civman2000
Emperor
of the Martian Empire
Jun 2001
time: 23:26
  Old Post 24-02-2003 22:51
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Put me on the list!

bigfree1
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  Old Post 25-02-2003 00:57
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quote:
Originally posted by civman2000
Put me on the list!


What list are you refering to; the one above is another teams list of members. You don't want to be on another team. do you?

OliverFA is offline OliverFA
King
Leeds, UK
Sep 2002
time: 06:26
  Old Post 25-02-2003 02:35
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He is our first official spy

Shiber is offline Shiber
Emperor
Haifa, Israel
Jul 2002
time: 07:26
  Old Post 25-02-2003 03:19
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quote:
Originally posted by Trip
Thanks BH, pretty useful info. Especially now that I plant myself in the CFC main chatroom.


Where can I find their chatroom? (server and room)
Also, does anybody know if any other teams have any rooms/servers where they like to hang out?
I think as part of our intelligence efforts, we should monitor public rooms where members of the other teams like to hang out. They might say something that would be of use to us.

Trip is offline Trip
Firaxis Games
Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:26
  Old Post 25-02-2003 04:03 Visit Trip's homepage!
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Irc.WebMaster.Com

#CivFanatics

I think.

Togas is offline Togas
Emperor
California
Jun 2002
time: 21:26
  Old Post 25-02-2003 04:32
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quote:
Originally posted by Shiber
I think as part of our intelligence efforts, we should monitor public rooms where members of the other teams like to hang out. They might say something that would be of use to us.




Please do. If anything is discovered, please post a thread with the quoted text included so that our intelligence people can get on top of it.

--Togas

Theseus is offline Theseus

Emperor
The warmonger formerly known as rpodos. Gathering Storm! Apolyton Spirit!!
Apr 2002
time: 00:26
  Old Post 25-02-2003 05:26
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CFC is missing many of there best:
cracker
Zachriel
Ribannah
Grey Fox
Bamspeedy
Moonsinger

Trip is offline Trip
Firaxis Games
Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:26
  Old Post 25-02-2003 05:29 Visit Trip's homepage!
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Moonie is usually busy elsewhere.

I remember she was the one that linked me to CFC, where I found Poly from. I guess I owe her a thank-you.

 
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