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BigFurryMonster
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EMPEROR of Cats
Feb 2002
time: 06:26
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OK.. The Civilization of Lux has passed away in the PTW: DG.
I was its Minister of the Interior, but also I was involved in politics and diplomacy.
As you know, several people of different civs have stated that the downfall of Lux was "their own fault" or something similar along those lines.
What I'd like to know, what was it exactly that went wrong? I have a pretty good image, but it's coloured, since I was involved in the situation. As I did not do all diplomacy, the picture is not complete, either.
Why do I ask this? The answer is: to the benefit of the Apolyton people, who face the task of diplomatically dealing with people from other Civ sites, who are for the most part complete strangers. It's the Olympic Games of Civ3:PTW...! It is therefore important to learn from our mistakes, so that we come out as the winner.
Please discuss what you thought caused Lux's doom. Any information regarding this matter will be helpful to Apolyton! We can then put the images you have together to get a clear picture.
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:26
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I'm not too favorable about talking about anything DG-related, but for the sake of clarification and accuracy...
Donegeal and Unorthodox:
In regards to city placement: one source of horses was directly in between ND, GoW and Lux. It was our one shot at securing them. If another team had gotten that city site (and ND missed it by a turn), then Lux would have had NO resources at all. Yes, none. ND was planning on building its city slightly east of where it did, and would have gotten both iron and horses with it. Had we not placed the city when and where we did, Lux would have had no resources, and ND would have had 2 iron and 2 horses (which they have now). Tell me, what happens when ND has a monopoly of resources, an itchy trigger finger, plenty of excuses to go to war and a neighbor with nothing better than Archers?
Also, the big point, that everyone but some of my team and ND is either ignorant of or just plain ignores: In some discussions I had with Darekill, he revealed to me that ND was going to attack one of the teams on the continent. The fact that Lux was close and had some 'border infractions' just made it easier for them to justify a war. ND feared being surrounded by 3 Apolyton teams, being the only outsiders, and knew they either had to attack 1 or more of them, or make them fight each other. So the whole argument that Lux "provoked ND to attack it with its irresponsible behavior" is a farce, and a moot point as well. As I was often tempted to say, "people should not assume things about situations they know nothing about."
E_T:
I've seen quite a bit of double-dealing from the southern end of the continent as well. Disguised as a 'stall', Togas informed me that GoW and RP had made a deal regarding Writing just out of the blue without even consulting or informing Lux in any way, while we were in the middle of negotiations for the tech. That was the end of that. I wouldn't exactly consider that 'straight-faced' dealing. And that's just one of many things that stands out in my mind as far as RP diplomacy. I won't isolate RP though, because every team was engaged in 'double-dealing', or 'favorable negotations', as I like to call them, in some way or another. At this point, fostering FULL trust between any two teams who had already dealt with each other at all was basically impossible. It's cover your back or be burned.
Also, I fail to see the whole "Not allowing your concerned neighbors try to broker a peaseful settlement to the problem" thing you brought up. I talked with Togas quite often about talking with ND and encouraged him to try to negotiate peace. So either A) Your team was misinformed, or B) Something that Lux requested and expected to happen didn't. Or perhaps you can clarify the situation for me, if neither of these is the case.
While Lux did make mistakes, as every team did, the vast majority of the mistakes apparent to the other teams not directly involved are really only in the eye of the beholder. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if another team had been given the Lux starting position.
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Arnelos
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of the Free World
Sep 2002
time: 00:26
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Ok, I've been completely disconnected from the PTW game for over a week and a half now, so what I say is based upon being involved in the diplomatic situation up through about 2 weeks ago and what my impression was of Lux Invicta:
donegeal has hit on the spark that lead to Lux's eventual downfall.
ND was going to probably attack someone, but Lux was screaming "ME! ME! PICK ME! PLEASE!!! PICK ME!!!"
This isolated Lux and made ND's fury at Lux "understandable" to Glory of War and RP Team... the point that we really didn't mind a bit that Lux Invicta lost their border city. We DID mind if ND tried to fully wipe out Lux Invicta, but there wasn't much we could have done about it by the time that became a possibility.
Back to the threatening gestures by Lux...
It convinced ND that Lux had to go - period. From the moment Lux did those two actions, it was very apparent that ND was of the mind that Lux had to die and would be the first to die.
This, in itself, wouldn't be especially harmful. Afterall, it seems that this was part of Trip's INTENT. That ND would get pissed off and eventually go to war.
However, this had several consequences which it SEEMS that Lux either didn't anticipate or did correctly anticipate, but didn't do enough about :
1. ND's source of iron seems to have been considerably closer to ND's capital than Lux's source of iron was to theirs (just the impression I got from talking to people, I actually haven't seen all of that part of the map). If Lux knew this, it should have been factored into the wisdom of their decision. As it turned out, ND could afford to mobilize FAR before Lux got around to it... which, when it comes down to it, is why Lux was killed. Lux could have survived if they'd mobilized earlier and not been caught with their pants down.
2. It convinced everyone (GoW, ND, and RP) that Lux Invicta would "bully" a neighboring civ, but didn't seem yet prepared to follow through. Lux Invicta made an enemy of Neu Demogyptica long before it was profitable to do so. The only impact it had was that it strained ND-Lux relations to the point where they stopped trading with each other and allowed GoW and/or RP Team to take advantage of the situation. Ideally, you don't let the enemy so conveniently and openly know that you intend to stomp on him unless you're actually going to do it.... blustering and threatening w/o backing it up only weakens your position.
So Lux's actions convinced a lot of people that the first likely war would be between Lux and ND, where previously people had been speculating about wars between other combinations first. This weakened the bargaining position of Lux Invicta in continental power politics because they'd deprived themselves of their own freedom of action by so openly declaring their target as Neu Demogyptica. GoW was obviously of the mind to take advantage of the situation and no sane person can fault them for doing so. With animosity betweeen ND and Lux, GoW was in a strengthened bargaining position, especially over whether they would go to war and with whom they would do it.
RP Team, for its part, wanted to play the role of the "balancer" and skewing the situation to their advantage if possible, but at least attempting to restore balance at the minimum. The problem here was that the situation wasn't easy to balance... too much depended on the various relationships with Glory of War. Lux Invicta's depriving themselves of their own freedom of action while giving Glory of War such an enormous freedom of action (in our eyes), had handed the advantage to Glory of War... I'm sure Glory of War saw the situation somewhat similarly. Even if the war between Lux and ND had been EVEN, the situation would have been ripe for Glory of War to pick sides at its leisure and Lux Invicta would have as much chance of being the target as ND.... allowing Glory of War to be in this position was Lux Invitca's own doing.
3. It convinced RP Team, Lux Invicta's "ally", that Lux Invicta could not be trusted even with a simple defensive alliance agreement. The ink was hardly dry on the document before Lux Invicta seemed to be attempting to incite Neu Demogyptica into attacking them and thus activating the alliance. While that might be precisely what Trip intended, it didn't quite work out as he invisioned it if so. RP Team simply didn't have the force available to help Lux Invicta even if ND -DID- attack them and alliances are largely meaningless unless you keep your ally abreast of the fact that war is the gameplan and give your ally the time to bulid up enough force to help you. As it stood, it was abundantly apparent that even if RP "honored" the alliance agreement, it would STILL only be an agreement in name only should a war actually break out so early - as RP Team was too far away with too little force close to the scene to help in the short time span between the initial attack and the conquest of Lux's capital itself. If Lux Invicta was at all counting on RP Team to help them out that early in the game against a swordsman rush, they were sorely mistaken that it would happen w/o coordination between allies.
If you'd wanted to do it effectively, you would have planned the war IN SECRET and if you'd wanted allied help, would have consulted them well enough ahead of time to let them build up a force capable of helping. Blustering and making threatening gestures w/o making the strike in the process only served to put the enemy on notice and let them build up faster than you.
However, those were only what became the background conditions: ND deciding that Lux had to die and preparing for it, GoW looking to take advantage of the situation, and RP Team incredulous with that Lux Invicta was trying to OPENLY start a war in a manner that seemed so counter to their own interests.
What happened when the war was ready to start was the NEXT blunder.
In the face of a stack of swordsmen sitting on the border of Lux Invicta, Trip correctly realized that it was a force he could not beat on his own.
However, he incorrectly seemed to assume that because ND's invasion of Lux Invicta would put ND in such an advantageous position, that GoW and RP Team would be forced to help Lux Invicta to ensure their own long-term protection.
Unfortunately for Lux Invicta, GoW and RP Team did not share Trip's assessment of the situation. RP Team clearly saw ND's potential conquest of Lux Invicta as a direct threat to RP Team (and GoW's) security, but felt there was little to nothing we could do about it in time. We could immediately muster our forces and grow our military (as we did), but it simply wouldn't be in place and on ND's border fast enough to stop ND from taking out Lux Invicta. GoW, for their sake, didn't seem to us to see ND's lurch toward hegemony to be a direct threat to GoW at all. This made RP Team incredulous, as it seemed to some on our team that GoW was gleefully joining Lux Invicta to line up to commit suicide. That being said, it was abundantly clear from the three-way chat that GhengisFarb (at least) seemed more concerned about getting his hands on a Lux Invicta city than even thinking about containing the potential ND threat to the rest of the continent.
However, I have to give GoW credit for part of that assessment. When GoW and RP Team talked in private after Trip had gone, we compared notes on just what GoW and RP Team might be able to do if we decided to jointly go after ND. It was quite apparent to both sides that there was very little we could do and although this wasn't explicitly expressed both ways, both sides could clearly see that Lux Invicta was done for and both of us would simply have to take as much advantage from the situation as we could while ND was busy.
What happened was that GoW set their sites on taking a Lux Invicta city, the one GhengisFarb had so obviously been pining after the entire time. When Lux Invicta didn't play ball with GoW, GoW declared war on Lux Invicta and decided to take what they wanted by force.
RP Team decided to take the time of ND's distraction to build up military forces, build city walls, and generally secure their military position and defense of the southern part of the continent. RP Team also was given the opporunity to found a few more cities while ND was on the other side of the continent fighting a war.
These were the apparent assessments of RP Team and Glory of War...
Which leads to the next mistake that Lux Invicta made (yes, there's more...).
I was talking to Trip after the three-way meeting where it was abundantly obvious at least to the GoW and RP Team reps that we weren't going to help Lux Invicta except for RP Team seeing if we could somehow convince ND out of completely wiping out Lux out (through some combination of pressure regaring ND's inability to sustain the conflict to the rest of the continent). We KNEW we couldn't convince them not to take Lux's border city and weren't even going to TRY to convince them of that.
I don't know whether Trip just didn't see what the rest of us saw as obvious or whether he decided to knowingly bluff the situation and see if he could get away with it... but Trip's next message to Neu Demogyptica came in the form of a rather bellicose THREAT.... that if Neu Demogyptica attacked even Lux Invicta's border city, the wrath of RP Team and Glory of War would be brought down upon Neu Demogyptica. 
This had two impacts:
1. It made RP Team's attempt to convince ND not to wipe out Lux Invicta completely impossible... If ND hadn't already been convinced that Lux Invicta shouldn't even be permitted to survive, that message clinched it. ND was completely unwilling to negotiate the matter after that point where at least they'd previously been willing to discuss it (though it's unclear whether they were sincere, of course  ).
2. ND apparently could see through Trip's bluff. Whether that's because ND was being naive and didn't figure RP Team or GoW would ever join together with Lux Invicta against them or because they used the recent correspondance from RP Team and GoW as a guide to see that we simply didn't have the inclination or capability yet to do that, is not entirely clear. What IS clear is that ND correctly doubted the bluff and saw it as being downright laughable - which it was. Even if we HAD acted to attempt to militarily pressure ND not to attack, we would have considered the border city an acceptable loss... we'd even already suggested to ND that if they simply culture flip the city, as that would avert the need for an armed conflict with Lux Invicta - one that we did not desire to see.
At this point, Lux Invicta was clearly beaten and RP Team and GoW weren't going to do enough about it to stop ND, while ND had decided to WIPE OUT Lux rather than simply hurt it.
This is the point at which it would have been useful for Lux Invicta to realize just how badly they were beat and just downright surrender to terms, providing they were permitted to survive at all, by ND and other powers (call a "Congress of Europe" or the sort). Thankfully, Lux Invicta DID realize this and DID ask ND for terms, which ND refused to provide them... Lux's earlier actions had already condemned them beyond the possibility of salvation to ND.
It's possible that Lux Invicta could have given in to the bullying terms of Glory of War (given them the city) and hoped that Glory of War would then desire to keep Lux Invicta around while somehow (if possible) stopping ND from taking the REST of Lux (it would be, afterall, in Glory of War's interests to do so). However, this would have been dumb and it was probably best for Lux Invicta (though not Glory of War or RP Team) that they chose against it. Giving a city to Glory of War or giving in to other terms to them was almost certainly not going to lead to any increased survivability for Lux... at that point, they had nothing to gain as Glory of War simply was incapable of helping them - GoW was too weak.
So then Glory of War declared war on Lux Invicta over the breaking of some "agreement". I'm not aware of such agreements, but I don't care and it doesn't matter. It was entirely in Glory of War's interests to declare war and it was entirely in Lux Invicta's interests to refuse to freely give up stuff to a team that did not have the power or inclination to help them.
At this point, the most interesting thing that COULD have happened, would be if Lux Invicta effectively "surrendered" to Neu Demogypitica and agreed to fight alongside Neu Demogyptica against Glory of War in return for Lux's survival (with at least their capital city). RP Team had been musing about this possibility and while we didn't suggest it, we were indeed fearful that Glory of War was walking themselves into a potential trap if ND would be willing to let Lux survive and use the Lux-GoW animosity to go stomp out GoW and thus leave ND the master of the entire north (other than the surviving remnant of Lux, though ND could later destroy that if they wanted to go back on such an agreement).
Interestingly, this did not happen. Though Trip certainly patched things up with some of the ND leaders and got almost buddylike with them at one point and it's possible that it could have at least been brought up, it's not what happened. Perhaps ND was too mad at Lux or desired their anihilation too much to see this potential way to dominate the whole continent... who knows. It stands to reason that ND may have doubted that Lux could be trusted even to "surrender" on such terms and was better off making sure Lux was dead than to see if they could be trusted against GoW.
About the same time, RP Team and GoW were already negotiating with ND about post-war borders (assuming the absense of Lux Invicta on the continent), which became a de facto authorization by GoW and RP Team for the complete destruction of Lux Invicta, something RP Team had previously been attempting to prevent.
As I joked to someone (I get this from a press release in an old game of Diplomacy)... the press article should read:
"Trip was found dead in the Lux Invicta palace with multiple stab wounds in his back. The coroner ruled the cause of death to be suicide."
That said, there were a number of things that were outside of Lux Invicta's control. Lux Invicta's primary mistake was in picking an enemy long before they had the ability to defeat that enemy. Even if they'd been as blustering and threatening but had the force to back it up, it wouldn't have been a problem. The later mistakes were merely what drove the remaining nails into their coffin. It was the initial mistake that caused the coffin to be prepared for them in the first place.
I think the lesson should be clear: Only make threatening and warlike gestures that put your enemy on notice of your intentions if you fully intend to be ready for war and to go to war before your intended enemy can prepare and catch you with your pants down... and when in doubt, be courteous regardless of your eventual intentions.
It should also be said that if you think you need your ally or allies to help you, it's best to consult with them AHEAD OF TIME about what you will need from them. If you don't, you're only shooting yourself in the foot when they're completely unprepared to help you on the time table you need them for. Allies coordinate battle plans with each other. If you don't trust your "ally" and think they'll just taddle on you and you don't think you can handle the war on your own, then you shouldn't be starting the war yet, should you?
But the bottom line of it all is the following, which is the mistake Trip admitted he made because I think he knew it the moment he saw those swordsmen:
War or the threat of war without the superiority of force to back it up is simply foolish - period.
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:26
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The biggest variable to consider here is the other team.
ND was a much harder nut to crack that I expected. Underestimating them is what I consider my main fault in the PTW DG. At all times they knew exactly how to read all the other teams, and they knew their position compared to all the others. They called everyone's bluffs, and if they ever bluffed themselves, they made sure no one else could call them.
Had it been another team with another set of leaders, things might have been quite different. I knew many of the people here at 'Poly far too well, and unfortunately, I could never get a good reading on the personality of the ND team, which I approached as if it were a 'Poly team. However, now we know that they're always assured of what position gives them the greatest advantage, and always makes sure to never put themselves in a position which they cannot handle.
They accomplished quite a lot from coming from the mountains and the jungle... if they got a better start position in this game, then things may be very difficult. However, that may be their one fault that we can exploit: they are very stoic, unchanging. Predict their move, and catch them off-guard. That's their biggest weakness.
Though if I were them, the entire northern half of the continent would be mine... 
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quote:
Originally posted by BigFurryMonster
One lesson I learned: a team that finds itself without resources (either in-game resources or good land) tends to take more risks than average. |
Amen Brother!
Now lets try convincing everyone here of that. 
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nbarclay
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Huntsville, Alabama
Dec 1999
time: 23:26
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A team without resources actually has two options. They can take risks to try to get resources, or they can lay low and hope an opportunity to trade for the needed resources comes along.
Suppose Lux had managed to build up a fairly significant force of veteran warriors without drawing ND's wrath down on them, and then managed to trade for iron. With enough gold stashed away, they could have dramatically increased their power instantly. And with that accomplished, Lux could have tried to enlist GoW as allies in a joint campaign to divide the ND lands between them.
Would it have worked? I have no idea. ND might have built up a heavy military force and attacked Lux just as early even without Lux's having antagonized them. But if, in the absence of Lux's trespassing, near-trespassing, and blustering, ND would not have ammassed as much military power as early, a "sleeper" strategy might have worked wonderfully.
One final point to draw from the Lux situation is that scouting around another civ's cities with warriors is not nearly as acceptable in MP as it is in SP. (GS and Vox had some very tense moments ourselves regarding the behavior of exploring warriors in the early game, although the details are, of course, classified. ) When civs meet, it's important for them to come to some kind of agreement regarding where it's okay for warriors to scout, and to behave in a manner compatible with whatever agreement is reached. Otherwise, one civ's moving warriors too close to another's cities, even if they stay out of the city radius proper, can become a major diplomatic problem.
The existence of scouts in the game adds an enormous complication, since scouts, as non-military units, can explore without posing a direct threat to cities, settlers, or workers. On one hand, an expansionist civ is certain to create anger if it insists that it has a right to explore another civ's entire future core but demands that foreign warriors stay away from its own core. On the other hand, if an expansionist civ does behave in such a manner, sending warriors near the expansionist's core when the expansionist is looking around only with scouts can create similarly great irritation or anger in the other direction. Both teams need to consider the diplomatic price of the actions they are considering very carefully.
Nathan
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Hot_Enamel
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Melbourne, Australia
Aug 2002
time: 14:26
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And just a comment on Arnelos brilliant commentary. 
The GoW (and I assume any team) always has more than one reason to declare war.
A couple not really mentioned are
1. We never got over the fact that a Lux warrior "invaded" our territory...many of us wanted revenge. We are simple warmongers after all
2. We did not want ND to take all the Lux cities and become the powerhouse of the North. We COULD NOT save Lux, but we could deny ND cities by joining the war, and taking a couple for ourselves. Some call it opportunistic or scavenging...maybe so... but we could not think of any other way to deny cities to ND.
We had no idea that Lux was going to disband all of their cities. Had we known, we probably would not of joined in.
And Finally...yes we demanded a city, but it eventually was coupled with a safe city swap escape, that would result in Lux still being alive on our continent. We even got an agreement in principle from ND that they would allow Lux to live... but alas, ND was hoping that they would claim the Lux capital, and when Lux disbanded it, ND was furious, and our deal fell through.
A few more of the GoW assumptions made by Arnelos are questionable, but basically he is right on the money.
A good read
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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:26
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quote:
Originally posted by Arnelos
Dissident,
E_T was the one on our team that figured out that Lux was in contact with Vox. He figured it out based upon piecing together several clues that didn't make sense together unless you guys were in contact.
The biggest clue was when Calc II (I think) sent us a technology exchange deal from Lux offering a 2-for-1 trade, which we found VERY out of place... when that was pieced together with several other clues, E_T was able to EVENTUALLY convince the rest of us that he had been right all along... you guys were in contact and his hunch had been correct (we'd heavily doubted him before that).
So here's a lesson... when E_T has a hunch in the ISDG game, don't dismiss him immediately He may just be right |
Actually, I had also aquired a bit more confirming info from the GoW team and then basically, "put a bug in GF's ear" about Lux's possible contact with Vox. They had similar clues and were in a position to investigate and made contact. We then aquired contact with Vox and eventually with GS from GoW, partly as payment for the information.
This again follows along with mine and Arnelos' Posts in the classified thread, be careful of the information that is given out, it could bite you back...
E_T
Last edited by E_T on 07-03-2003 at 23:22
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quote:
Originally posted by Hot_Enamel
ND was hoping that they would claim the Lux capital, and when Lux disbanded it, ND was furious, and our deal fell through.
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Really, really, really, furious? Hehe, that's too bad, Lux should've let him have that City; NOT! 
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CiverDan
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I think I will weigh in.
City Placement: No question our city placement was bad. Especially Cities 3 and 4. Too currupt and not defendable. They also helped in angering GoW. Regio (our second city) in hindsight wasn't that bright of an idea, but the fact be didnt build up our military and simply continued to REX did us helped to do us in ultimately. One Lesson here. Do not REX unless you have room to do it and keep good relations with your neighbors.
Diplomacy. One thing that came up in discussions is whether movements in someone elses territory with a scout is as aggregious as doing the same with a warrior. Now question any initial incursion with a warrior is worse IMHO since they can attack. But ND left a scout within our cultural borders for two consectutive turns early in the game. At leat I was offended by this.
One more thing. Be very careful with negotiations with multiple teams that become complex, such as tech research deals, etc. When this happens unless you are extremely careful people will eventually accuse you of double-dealing. The specific wording that caused this with us is rather irrelevant here. It was our manner we went about i that was the problem.
Moral: We thought we were the slyest team in the bunch, but instead we were a paper tiger.
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Togas
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California
Jun 2002
time: 21:26
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Arnelos's long recap does an excellent job of summing up our evaluation of the situation so I won't go to the trouble of repeating it. I just have a couple of points to share:
Diplomaticly, Lux Invicta may have made mistakes, but we all made "mistakes" ... it's impossible to be perfect as you're dealing with complicated human beings whom you can't fully predict. Frankly, I believe Lux Invicta's cunning deals and creativity nearly kept them alive and if the situation on my team and in GoW's camp were different, Trip's efforts may have actually saved his team. He even went as far as to try to negotiate escape plans with everyone he knew and pulled it off with Vox ... although they later voided the deal. Bottom line, I can't fault Lux's cunning, but I do fault their analysis in a few ways...
Trip and I still disagree about his "bluffing" that he could win a war against ND. I recall Trip telling me at one point that I'd be a horrible poker player. But that brings up an excellent point ... when you're playing poker you bluff only when it seems likely to your opponents that you have a better hand than them. Simply raising when you have nothing on the table is a mistake.
You can bluff when you're opponents intelligence tells him that, yes, your actions and threats are reasonable and possible. You cannot bluff when your opponent -- who has scouted you out -- knows you don't have iron linked up and knows that your nation is poorly developed, spread out, and that your military has been "weak" compared to theirs for 20+ turns now.
So, when the cards are out, when you've been dealt a bad hand, and when you your opponent raises you, instead of calling him and losing your cash you fold. At least that's what you do in poker. In this game, you deal. You negotiate. You bargain, you beg, plead, sell your soul if you have to. Survival, in mind, should be your goal. If you survive you bide your time and await your chance to make that deal that brings your nation back to it's old glory.
My last point: The movement of your combat units into the cultural territory of another nation is a very threatening move, and a move that marked Lux for death in the eyes of ND. ND could have declared on any of us. They picked Lux because Lux had brought attention to themselves and made themselves seem like the biggest threat. GoW and RP were bigger threats to ND in many other ways, but ND's attention was drawn to Lux by Lux's actions.
Bottom line: Your actions are far more powerful and important than your words. And you must be aware of the effect your actions have on your neighbor.
--Togas
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07-03-2003 05:16
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