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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970 time: 00:26
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You should always try to keep your deficit less than economic growth. That way, your overall debt keeps decreasing as a percentage of your economy and doesn't get out of hand. This 3% deficit guideline in the Stability Pact is a pretty good one, because it approximates economic growth in a good economic year. The business cycle is already built into it.
France's and Germany's deficits are well above their economic growth rate (by several percentage points), which doesn't make it look good at all. Further, France won't have too many years of economic growth that are sufficient to cover a 3.4% shortfall.
All of this said, this has to be put into perspective. Japan is running a ~7% of economy deficit, and is growing at less than a 1% rate. Japan's debt is astoundingly huge, which everybody will be paying for in one way or another in the years to come.
The US deficit will likely stay roughly within its economic growth rate, even with Bush's tax cuts and a war added in. It has done this so far, even with the first round of tax cuts and a recession, which indicates that Bush isn't really skating on thin ice.
Last edited by DanS on 09-03-2003 at 11:44
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DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970 time: 00:26
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That's last year's economic growth. Not this year's. Last year's deficit was roughly in line with economic growth as well.
So far, this has been a good piece of work by the administration. Also, some luck.
Last edited by DanS on 09-03-2003 at 13:27
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