10-03-2003 09:58									#91
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All countries.

Look at the OECD spreadsheet I linked to - the almost exact figures (discrepacies could easily be due to revisions).

	10-03-2003 10:02									#93
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Did the "Actual Balance" swing as much as .9 percentage points upward for the US?

Even if you consider it this way, I think the analysis still stands. When Germany isn't growing and is running a 3% deficit, it's no good. When the US is running a 3.5% (or whatever) deficit on a net lending basis, but is growing at 2.4%, that's much more manageable.

	10-03-2003 10:09									#94
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Did the "Actual Balance" swing as much as .9 percentage points upward for the US?

What period and/or data are you referring to?

quote: Originally posted by DanS Even if you consider it this way, I think the analysis still stands. When Germany isn't growing and is running a 3% deficit, it's no good. When the US is running a 3.5% (or whatever) deficit on a net lending basis, but is growing at 2.4%, that's much more manageable.

True but then Germany is part of a larger currency zone - there the deficit is around 2.3% - growth (when adjusting for the differences caused by the US's use of a hedonic deflator) was 1.3% last year.

So pretty much the same difference there.

	10-03-2003 10:17									#95
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What period are you referring to?

2002. I see IMF forecasting 2.6% actual balance in September, but you're telling me it ended up at 3.5% for the year.

True but then Germany is part of a larger currency zone - there the deficit is around 2.3% - growth (when adjusting for the differences caused by the US's use of a hedonic deflator) was 1.3% last year.

I thought about that before posting yesterday and agree. But the 3% ceiling is meant to take the business cycle into account already (under the assumption that 3% growth is about the best you're going to get). It is only happenstance that Germany and France are somewhat out of cycle with the rest of the Euro-zone economies.

Also, re hedonic factors, I seem to remember that they make bigger differences in the US versus what they would make in Europe because of the different economic structures. Have you factored that in?

	10-03-2003 10:32									#96
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quote: Originally posted by DanS 2002. I see IMF forecasting 2.6% actual balance in September, but you're telling me it ended up at 3.5% for the year.

Well as I said I have forecasted the amount for 'corporate profits and tax accurals' for Q4 (at $215bn) but this figure tends not to move enourmously.

I see I have made one error (I was using the old 'advance' estimate for nominal GDP in 2002 not the new 'provisional' one) this puts the deficit at 3.3% not 3.5% (although the figure for Q4 was 3.7%)

quote: Originally posted by DanS I thought about that and agree. But the 3% ceiling is meant to take the business cycle into account already (under the assumption that 3% growth is about the best you're going to get). It is only happenstance that Germany and France are somewhat out of cycle with the rest of the Euro-zone economies.

Not entirely sure what your point is here, but...

OECD forecasts of structural deficit and potential growth rate (adjusted for hedonic deflator differences)

USA:
Structural Deficit: -2.7%
Potential Growth: 2.9% (personally I think this is more like 2.5% at the moment)

Germany:
Structural Deficit: -2.7%
Potential Growth: 2.6%

France:
Structural Deficit: -2.5%
Potential Growth: 2.3%

Euro Zone:
Structural Deficit: -1.4%
Potential Growth: 2.7%

	10-03-2003 11:05									#97
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quote: LoA, Most third world countries don't produce enough food for export. Productivity improvements in the US are a reality.

brazil makes tons of sugar cane
latin america makes tons of bananas
ethiopia makes tons of coffee
so does costa rica

all of this is food, and they are some of the worlds leaders in these goods. maybe the produce more in the US, but they cant cover their costs, so what does it matter? relative to the third world, there is no way the US or any other developed country can keep up.

third world countries use very little capital for their production and their workers are dirt cheap. they may be inefficient, but their costs are so low that the US needs to protects its own farmers by subsidizing.

	10-03-2003 11:07									#98
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Well, I'd be inclined to agree with you LoA, but, the US agriculture business runs on the backs of migrant workers, who also work for dirt cheap.

	10-03-2003 11:08									#99
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia brazil makes tons of sugar cane latin america makes tons of bananas ethiopia makes tons of coffee

true, but we don't compete in these markets. no one can compete with us for crops we grow.

	10-03-2003 11:11									#100
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I'm having a hard time believing LoA when he says farmn subsidies in the U.S. cause coffee farmers in Costa Rica to be poor; especially when the U.S. doesn't grow a single coffee bean.

	10-03-2003 11:14									#101
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quote: Well, I'd be inclined to agree with you LoA, but, the US agriculture business runs on the backs of migrant workers, who also work for dirt cheap.

not since they were unionized.

quote: rue, but we don't compete in these markets. no one can compete with us for crops we grow.

thats why we have a tariff on sugar. so they cant compete with us. and a tariff on cotton from india and egypte (its not food, buts its agriculture) and thats why we subsidize the fruit growers in california, so that foreign fruits cant compete. or if we dont do that, we put extra regulations (spraying for pests, spraying again for something else, washing to remove DDT, washing again to remove the other washing) which drives up the price.

	10-03-2003 11:34									#102
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia thats why we have a tariff on sugar. so they cant compete with us. and a tariff on cotton from india and egypte (its not food, buts its agriculture) and thats why we subsidize the fruit growers in california, so that foreign fruits cant compete. or if we dont do that, we put extra regulations (spraying for pests, spraying again for something else, washing to remove DDT, washing again to remove the other washing) which drives up the price.

Your argument is consistant but wrong. US farmers are the most productive in the world. I don't have a source, but I'm sure you will find out one day.

	10-03-2003 11:38									#103
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Duncan is right. American farmers (actually American farming businesses) are the most productive in the world. Without a doubt having a higher productivity than non-first world countries.

Subsidies are there to pay the small farmers whose crop prices are rapidly falling (which comes from higher supply because of the increased productivity).

The US is also the world's largest agricultural exporter, which seems to show that US agri-productivity is high.

	10-03-2003 14:16									#104
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I thought the Aussies and canadians, matches the US in terms of agriculture. I can't see why the canadians wern't the same in terms of productivity.

	10-03-2003 14:20									#105
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quote: Every nation is going to have either large deficits for the whole decade, huge tax increases, or huge spending cuts

Not here. This year we had:

1) A spending increase
2) Pending tax cuts
3) A budget surplus

	10-03-2003 14:22									#106
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quote: Your argument is consistant but wrong. US farmers are the most productive in the world. I don't have a source, but I'm sure you will find out one day.

US farmers get ~62% of their income from subsidies, IIRC. Canadian farmers get ~30%. You just put a tariff on Canadian wheat because your farmers were whining. If that isn't protectionism, I don't know what is.

	10-03-2003 14:37									#107
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quote: Originally posted by DarthVeda Chirac and Schroeder sure are awesome leaders...

How many hundreds of billions is the US Budget deficit this year?

	10-03-2003 14:55									#108
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The US is and has been subsidising agriculture to the same extent as the EU. It's just done in different ways, the US hides it subsidies better.

The OECD's total support estimates for the sectors for 2000 are almost the same in absolute numbers (2000: EU 103.5 billion %; US 92.3 billion $), as well as a share of agricultural production (roughly 50 %). The latest subsidy package should easily make the US the worst offender.

http://europa.eu.int/comm/agricultu...rmbill/qa28.htm

Of course, the myth of the poor american farmers is a given in US media, so one cannot blame people for the misinformation propagated in this thread.

	10-03-2003 21:22									#109
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quote: Originally posted by Frogger quote: Every nation is going to have either large deficits for the whole decade, huge tax increases, or huge spending cuts Not here. This year we had: 1) A spending increase 2) Pending tax cuts 3) A budget surplus

Yes, your economy is very nice right now. Let's hope it can keep the rest of us afloat

	10-03-2003 21:25									#110
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quote: Originally posted by TheStinger I thought the Aussies and canadians, matches the US in terms of agriculture. I can't see why the canadians wern't the same in terms of productivity.

I think they are close. I don't think any one area can compare with the San Joaquin Valley in California though.

	10-03-2003 21:35									#111
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Hershey: The absolute numbers are similar but remember that there are easily twice as many farmers in the U.S. as there are in the EU. That means the per capita subsidy is much smaller in the U.S..

	10-03-2003 21:44									#112
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OERDIN, CHECK THE GODDAMN FREAKING LINK!!!!



More than 3 times, just the other way round. I'll make your point for you: EU subsidies per unit of farmland are higher.

	10-03-2003 21:49									#113
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Hmmm, I had always thought it was the other way around. In the U.S. many farmers declare themselves to be a company instead of a family farm do those numbers include family farms which are technically "corporations"? I'm also suspecious of exactly what they've lumped into the "producer support estimate" since it directly controdicts the estimates I saw on CNN and NPR right after the last farm bill was passed.

	10-03-2003 21:58									#114
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Farm is farm for that purpose.

As for estimates, the US government, media and interest groups always tend to ignore the hidden subsidies, especially tax subsidies. Not to mention externalities, which aren't even counted by the OECD total support figures, I think....

	11-03-2003 01:12									#115
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alright its two on one. i guess i gotta give you the statement 'US farmers are the most productive in the world"

quote: For example, the U.S. has only 25,000 cotton growers, but they are prosperous (with an average net worth of $800,000) and thus influential. So the U.S. spends $2 billion a year subsidizing them, and American production of cotton has almost doubled over the last 20 years -- even though the U.S. is an inefficient, high-cost producer. The result is a glut that costs African countries $250 million each year, according to a World Bank study published in February.

ah so imran, these are those small farmers you were talking about huh?


-------
Quote from NY Times 'Farm Subsidies that Kill' Nicholsd D Kristof, 7/5/2002, Late Edition - final, Section A, page 19

	11-03-2003 01:15									#116
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quote: Where do you get that Sikander? BTW even if Sandman doesn't prefers not to admite it there has been a marked increase in anti-semitism in France over the last two years and I would rather try to combat it now while it is small then wait until it possibly becomes much larger. The best time to deal with problems like this is to nip them in the bud and not to ignore them until the become huge problems like some people here have suggested.

I was merely comparing your misleading claim that Jews were leaving France in 'record numbers' to your slightly less spurious claim that France has 'busted' through eurozone deficit limits.

Anti-semitism only comes into the question if you consider the microscopic emigration increase to have been caused by it.

	11-03-2003 02:18									#117
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Duncan is right. American farmers (actually American farming businesses) are the most productive in the world. Without a doubt having a higher productivity than non-first world countries.

What do you mean by 'most productive'?

Produce more by value? (US is second to the EU)
Produce more in tonnage? (US is first)
Workers are most productive? (US is ahead of EU average but behind France & Luxembourg)

	11-03-2003 02:27									#118
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quote: Originally posted by el freako What do you mean by 'most productive'? Workers are most productive? (US is ahead of EU average but behind France & Luxembourg)

?

source?

	11-03-2003 02:40									#119
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Farm is farm for that purpose. As for estimates, the US government, media and interest groups always tend to ignore the hidden subsidies, especially tax subsidies. Not to mention externalities, which aren't even counted by the OECD total support figures, I think....

The tax subsidies thing has me a bit confused. I seem to recall a year or two ago when the French were pushing "tax harmonization" in the EU and declaring they wanted to end "unfair British & Dutch tax subsidies". What they were talking about was the British and Dutch had lower tax rates then France (or Germany for that matter) and the French called this a unfair subsidy.

Having lower taxes is not the same as having subsidy. Certain states have hobbled their privite secter with high taxes but that is their fault and they can't blame their troubles on countries which choice to have lower taxes.

	11-03-2003 02:42									#120
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quote: Since the 1970s high technology farming, including new hybrids for wheat, rice, and other grains, better methods of soil conservation and irrigation, and the growing use of improved fertilizers has led to the production of more food per capita, not only in the United States, but in much of the rest of the world. United States farmers, however, still have the advantage of superior private and government research facilities to produce and perfect new technologies.

http://encarta.msn.com/encnet/refpa...72257¶=9#p9

These types of improvements and new biotech improvements are keeping our farmers on top.