15-03-2003 12:01									#31
	Put an end to popups!

It may be true, or it may not, but as we have no way to tell (yet), we shouldn't put any faith in it one way or the other.

	15-03-2003 12:02									#32
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I'd think twice about believing 100% something on a public forum. Especially something relative to a crappy start.

	15-03-2003 18:59									#33
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

If they show up to be consistently hard-dealing , we have to demand they soften up. Normally, I use to wage war against and crush players who are being unreasonalble and egosentric in trades.

Once I played Carthage, I told another player "Gimme a tech, please and you are my friend. :-)" I was of course behind in techs and building tons of mercs. He refused, and then I said: "Gimme just one tech and I'll spare you! }-( " He still refused and said: "Haha, you have only 3 swordmen. Just try me. :-p"
Well, the whole thing ended in a blitzkrieg where he lost 2 of his cities.

A more cautious player would either have a better defence against merc attacks, or given away one tech on demand after realizing the danger of these mercs.

So...

Just tell CDG this story, and they will be nice trading partners for sure!

	15-03-2003 23:53									#34
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

I propose another alternative:

we mass our troops outside their borders. We demand full cooperation in inspecting their cities so as to know they are not building Immortals or any other illegal units. We set a deadline up to March 17 so that they may comply. We offer the possum exile in one of our forums.



ok, serously, I honestly don't think they will be too hard-dealing

	16-03-2003 00:06									#35
	Suffering from ads?

Ok, I was contacted by Kentonio (President), and this is what he wrote:

quote: Hi, your ambassador to Apolytonm is GenghisFarb, although if by chance we met in the next few days while he is away I would be dealing with any early contact. Kentonio

I guess he wasn't aware that we had a Warrior next to his? I guess he wouldn't since they haven't had there turn yet, doh!

Anyways, I just got this, so I haven't replied yet. I think It will be somethig like like this:

Greetings form Apolyton

Dear Ambassador,

We have made contact with your Warrior Alfred.

Our Nation is aware that your's started with knowledge of Masonry and Bronze Working. I'm sure you know that we started with Masonry and Alphabet.

We would like to set up a mutually beneficial Trade arangement with one of our neighbors. I would like to respectfully request that you let us know what you are currently reasearching. We are reserching BW. We are very close at this point since we started researching it from the begining.

We are not really interested so much in BW as we might be with what you are currently researching. We should share information as to what our future plans are for Tech research so that we don't duplicate research. I'm sure the other teams are thinking of this as well as no one wnats to fall behind anyone else in the market of Technology.

I've told you that we are researching BW, had we known you were one of our neighbor's we wouldn't have chosse that goal, rather we would have counted on building a strong trading relationship with your team instead. The likelyhood of us have a mutually beneficial relationship throughout this game is very great, I would go so far as to say it's a sure thing.

Please let us know what you are reasearching and we can start to negotiate for Technolgies that we have now for ones that you will have in the future.

BTW, we got Pottery form a Goody Hut.

Respetfully bigfree1
Ambassador to the Eclucidian Nation



What do you think?

	16-03-2003 00:19									#36
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I don't think you should mention Pottery yet. The main purpose of the email should be to see if they're willing to sell us BW, and to set up future trade plans (good there). However, I think you're closing off possible trading too much by what you've said about BW. You may want to loosen the wording up to show them that there is a possibility we want BW from them.

	16-03-2003 00:29									#37
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quote: We are very close at this point since we started researching it from the begining.

quote: BTW, we got Pottery form a Goody Hut.

I think we shouldn't lie, especially in ways that they will be likely to suspect and/or be able to confirm later on.

They will suspect that we haven't been researching BW since the beginning because we have Pottery. The goody hut admission sounds like we are trying to cover up a lie to me, and may very well give them that impression too. "Why are they giving us this information?" will be the question they ask.

They will also see when we get BW if we end up researching it ourselves, and be able to be rather confident that we are lying to them at that point. That barbs showed up on their borders will let them know we or someone else in the area popped a hut full of them, which is further decreases the probability that we got Pottery from a hut.

"We are currently researching BW, but perhaps we can come to an agreement where both our civs can benefit through a trade for that tech." should suffice.

	16-03-2003 00:47									#38
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by Aeson "We are currently researching BW, but perhaps we can come to an agreement where both our civs can benefit through a trade for that tech." should suffice.

I think you should mention to them that we would probably be buying BW from them, since we don't really have anything we can trade to them for it.

	16-03-2003 00:53									#39
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by Aeson I think we shouldn't lie, especially in ways that they will be likely to suspect and/or be able to confirm later on.

There is no way for them to confirm this, absolutely none.

quote: Originally posted by Aeson They will suspect that we haven't been researching BW since the beginning because we have Pottery. The goody hut admission sounds like we are trying to cover up a lie to me, and may very well give them that impression too. "Why are they giving us this information?" will be the question they ask.

I don't thnk so, if they do they are basing their suspecions on no evidence of any kind.

quote: Originally posted by Aeson They will also see when we get BW if we end up researching it ourselves, and be able to be rather confident that we are lying to them at that point. That barbs showed up on their borders will let them know we or someone else in the area popped a hut full of them, which is further decreases the probability that we got Pottery from a hut.

Yes, they can tell when we get it, which should be 7 or 8 turns, depends when they get this. To me that is pretty close for this era.

Just because you popped Barbs from one doesn't mean you popped barbs from all. It actually helps us make the case that we got Pottery from a hut earlier if we got Barbs from a hut latter; even our own team couldn't believe our own misfortune in recieving Barbs that often.

quote: Originally posted by Aeson "We are currently researching BW, but perhaps we can come to an agreement where both our civs can benefit through a trade for that tech." should suffice.

They will know that we have Pottery. I don't think it will look like I'm providing to much information for no reason since I'm requesting that they share their's as well. It just looks as if I'm taking a chance that they will do the same for us. Maybe I can ask them if the got anything from hut, and since i've told them what we got, they will be more inclined to reveal if they indeed got anything either; which they would do anyways if they wanted to put that up for trade against the Alphabet.

	16-03-2003 00:56									#40
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Bigfree, I have to disagree with you here.

They can easily calculate how long it would take us to finish BW if we started researching it from the beginning. The numbers would show that we're either done with it (which we're not), or we're only a couple turns away, and trading for it would be pointless. This would show them that we were lying about it, and that would be bad for them to discover. It's best not to prod the lion when you have no need to.

	16-03-2003 01:04									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Trip Bigfree, I have to disagree with you here. They can easily calculate how long it would take us to finish BW if we started researching it from the beginning. The numbers would show that we're either done with it (which we're not), or we're only a couple turns away, and trading for it would be pointless. This would show them that we were lying about it, and that would be bad for them to discover. It's best not to prod the lion when you have no need to.

They could easily calculate it if they knew what kind of tiles we had and which ones we worked each turn as well as the position of our slider on each turn; other than that yes it would be easy.

Do we want to preclude the possibility of buying BW for between 10-25 gold? I don't think we should. Togas has made it clear that he thinks this would be a good deal for us. I think so too. Telling them we are close, and making it believable will help us to achieve it. Also the promise of trading them Alphabet for IW will go a long ways to get them to trust us.

Since GF is going tobe their Ambassador; does he think that this team will blatantly lie to him? We need to figure into our negotiations what we think he will think of us or at least expect of us!

	16-03-2003 01:13									#42
	Got spare money?

quote: It actually helps us make the case that we got Pottery from a hut earlier if we got Barbs from a hut latter;

Probabilities don't work that way. Random means that one result doesn't affect the other.

If we have two huts, that's two chances at a tech. Chances for a tech from a hut are roughly 20%-30%. By opening a hut and not getting a tech, it doesn't change the probability that the next hut will give a tech. That should still be the same percent chance.

Every time you flip a coin, you have 50:50 odds. Doesn't matter if you've just flipped heads a hundred times in a row or not (unless you're really sick of getting heads and cheat to ensure it won't be again ).

	16-03-2003 01:21									#43
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by Aeson Probabilities don't work that way. Random means that one result doesn't affect the other. If we have two huts, that's two chances at a tech. Chances for a tech from a hut are roughly 20%-30%. By opening a hut and not getting a tech, it doesn't change the probability that the next hut will give a tech. That should still be the same percent chance. Every time you flip a coin, you have 50:50 odds. Doesn't matter if you've just flipped heads a hundred times in a row or not (unless you're really sick of getting heads and cheat to ensure it won't be again ).

Thanks for the lessons, but I know perectly well how statistics work.

If you consider each of the huts individaully, after you've popped one, then you consider the other, your are of course correct. This is easy to see, a 3rd grader should be able to see this.

If you consider looking at 3 huts total, all of them not having been popped, you'd say that chances of getting something different form each one of them is greater than getting the same thing for each one. It's the overall picture of us popping huts and getting something that they will look at. It's not proable, in their eyes that we could've popped 3 huts and got all Barbs from them. In their eyes, if we popped 3 huts there's a good chance that we did get a tech from one of them since they know we didn't get a settler or a town from them either.

	16-03-2003 01:21									#44
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quote: Originally posted by bigfree1 They could easily calculate it if they knew what kind of tiles we had and which ones we worked each turn as well as the position of our slider on each turn; other than that yes it would be easy.

They're not going to assume we haven't built roads.
Keep in mind it will be turn 20 by the time we talk to them. 20 turns is plenty of time to have finished researching one fairly cheap tech. They will figure it out pretty easily, trust me. It's also plenty of time for us to have finished Pottery and be almost done with BW (as we are). There's no need to lie or mislead them here.

quote: Do we want to preclude the possibility of buying BW for between 10-25 gold? I don't think we should. Togas has made it clear that he thinks this would be a good deal for us. I think so too. Telling them we are close, and making it believable will help us to achieve it. Also the promise of trading them Alphabet for IW will go a long ways to get them to trust us.

Both of those sound good. Do not offer them anything for free, where they will pay us back later. With GF in charge of negotiations, we can't trust that kind of deal. 10-25 gold for BW, and offer them Alphabet for IW. Both of those sound good.

quote: Since GF is going tobe their Ambassador; does he think that this team will blatantly lie to him? We need to figure into our negotiations what we think he will think of us or at least expect of us!

Knowing GF, he will probably think we will always be blatantly lying to him. We have to earn their trust first. I'm sure GF will have plenty of words to tell them about our trustworthy-ness, but we have to prove him wrong and show them that we can be trusted. At least, until we get IW.

	16-03-2003 01:32									#45
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by Trip They're not going to assume we haven't built roads. Keep in mind it will be turn 20 by the time we talk to them. 20 turns is plenty of time to have finished researching one fairly cheap tech. They will figure it out pretty easily, trust me. It's also plenty of time for us to have finished Pottery and be almost done with BW (as we are). There's no need to lie or mislead them here.

But they will also have to take into account that we could've just set the slider at 10% and that we were happy to get that in 40 turns; saving up gold in the process. We got 25 from a hut; so we have the gold to 'prove it'.

The only reason I'd be willing to mislead them is to be able to get BW for cheap. Otherwise I don't thnk they will go for it. I also don't think, even if they have suspecions, that they will back out of talks with us or even bring up their suspecions to us about the staus of researching BW. It's in their interest to get Alphabet from us for IW as much as it is in ours (Alphabet is actually more expensive). And since I'm seeming to be up front about where we are tech wise, I think they will be inclined to believe us until they could prove otherwise (which I don't think they can.)

	16-03-2003 01:37									#46
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3 huts give a better overall chance to get a tech than fewer, that's true. 2 huts don't give a better overall chance to get a tech than 3. In Persian eyes, barbarians showing up at this point means we've had X-1 chances at getting a tech, X being however many huts they think we've opened. They can't see the 3 huts, they just know that one of the huts we popped wasn't a tech. That lowers their estimation of our odds to get a tech because X-1 chances aren't as good as X.

	16-03-2003 01:37									#47
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Alphabet's value will be decreased as time goes on, and other teams get it from trade.

Currently, we're only 7 turns from finishing BW. Just tell them we're only a few turns away from finishing, and if they ask exactly how many, say that you have to check with the MoI or something. If that's not enough to convince them to sell it, then they probably wouldn't be willing to sell it anyways. If they have any way of finding out we're not being truthful with them, then it can only hurt us. All we stand to lose is some gold or a few turns researching. Losing trust would be much more expensive.

	16-03-2003 01:41									#48
	Support Apolyton

The Truth will guide us.

no need to lie. if we do, it just complicates matters needlessly.

lets try to our utmost to deal softly here.

	16-03-2003 01:44									#49
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Ok I'm going to revise the letter and take out the part about pottery out of a hut. I will however add in it's place:

Has your team had any luck with the Goddy Huts? Ours has been a mixed bag. I'll show you mine if you show me yours?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

This shows that we may have gotten something good from the huts, if they want to deduce that it may have been Pottery, which they probably will, all the better for our statement of being close to BW.

If they respond and tell us they got a tech from a hut, I will then tell them that we got one too. It depends on how everything else is going whether or not I'll tell them first what our 'goodies' were (Pottery) or tell them they should ashare first since we shared first what our current research is.

	16-03-2003 01:50									#50
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quote: Originally posted by Aeson 3 huts give a better overall chance to get a tech than fewer, that's true. 2 huts don't give a better overall chance to get a tech than 3. In Persian eyes, barbarians showing up at this point means we've had X-1 chances at getting a tech, X being however many huts they think we've opened. They can't see the 3 huts, they just know that one of the huts we popped wasn't a tech. That lowers their estimation of our odds to get a tech because X-1 chances aren't as good as X.

But what are the chances that we've come accross at least 3 huts up til now? Pretty good I'd say since we have seen 3. We could've come accross 4 by now if Wbetahound wasn't murdered. My point is there's a good chance, in their eyes, that we could have gained a tech from a hut. They may have gotten one already themselves.

	16-03-2003 01:51									#51
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bigfree, why do you think it would be valuable to lie?

We are in fact close to BW. Close enough that I am unwilling to trade Alpahbet for it. Close enough that I'd be happy finishing it ourselves if it cost more than 15 or 20 gold.

I think that's all that matters, yes?

The problem with lies is that we all have to keep track of which ones have been told. In games such as this, the teams that lie frequently will be found out. Please do not lie unnecessarily, or over small matters of a few gold.

	16-03-2003 01:54									#52
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Please take out the part about us starting BW from the get go as well. It serves no purpose. There is a range of possible commerce we could have had. We are at the lower end of this range. At the low end, we'd still have BW by now if we researched it from the start. At the high end, we'd have researched it well before now.

The only cop out is that we've been sitting at 10% research on BW, which they won't believe. 10% on a big tech can sometimes make sense. 10% on BW in MP doesn't make sense at all does it?

	16-03-2003 01:57									#53
	Inflate your Upload Space

Yes. Take out the part about Pottery and researching BW from the beginning. I like the line about the goody huts though.

	16-03-2003 01:58									#54
	Increase Your PM Length

Well then, are we willing to let them know that we researched Pottery from the begining? They will ask how we obtained it. I know I will ask them the same.

	16-03-2003 02:00									#55
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Also are we willing to actually let them know how close we are to getting BW in terms of number of turns? This could come up when they are deciding how much gold to accept for it.

	16-03-2003 02:03									#56
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My statement:

"That barbs showed up on their borders will let them know we or someone else in the area popped a hut full of them, which is further decreases the probability that we got Pottery from a hut."

X-1 < X

Your statement:

"It actually helps us make the case that we got Pottery from a hut earlier if we got Barbs from a hut latter;"

X-1 > X

Which equation works?

	16-03-2003 02:06									#57
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I wouldn't answer the question at this point, myself. I doubt they will either.

The fact that we are near enough to BW to be willing to finish it ourselves is enough. If they don't believe us, fine. Drop it. The best way to convince them of the truth of our position is to be willing to drop it.

If we drop it, they will come back in a turn or two, at which point its value to us will be lower, of course.

	16-03-2003 02:11									#58
	Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by bigfree1 Also are we willing to actually let them know how close we are to getting BW in terms of number of turns? This could come up when they are deciding how much gold to accept for it.

I wouldn't. All I would say is to put it into terms of gold.

It would be worth x amount of gold to us to finish it early by giving gold to them.

In this case x is 10 or 15. Maximum value of x is 20. 20 gives them half the remaining research cost, which would be fair, but not to our advantage.

The min-max values of x decrease for every turn this takes to negotiate. Luckily, the save got stuck at CFC for 13 hours.

	16-03-2003 02:12									#59
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quote: Originally posted by Aeson My statement: "That barbs showed up on their borders will let them know we or someone else in the area popped a hut full of them, which is further decreases the probability that we got Pottery from a hut." X-1 < X Your statement: "It actually helps us make the case that we got Pottery from a hut earlier if we got Barbs from a hut latter;" X-1 > X Which equation works?

Your equation for your statement may hold water, but it doesn't reflect my statement; and even more so because it is taken out of context of the argumnet as a whole, which is that you'd have to consider more than one at a time in order to figure there'd be a greater chance at recieving a tech than if you did each one seperately. With all thing beng equal probabilities have a tendency to approach what they are in a single chance to what they are in actuality when you increase the amount of the sample. I may flip a coin 10 times and it lands heads 7; that doesn't mean that the probability is 70%(not saying ou think this), it just means you need to flip the coin more times and you will see that the probability will approach 50% the more you flip the coin.

	16-03-2003 02:14									#60
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I wouldn't. All I would say is to put it into terms of gold. It would be worth x amount of gold to us to finish it early by giving gold to them. In this case x is 10 or 15. Maximum value of x is 20. 20 gives them half the remaining research cost, which would be fair, but not to our advantage. The min-max values of x decrease for every turn this takes to negotiate. Luckily, the save got stuck at CFC for 13 hours.

Correct.

Even if worse comes to worst, we can finish it ourselves at minimum cost.