22-03-2003 16:38									#1
	What if: The Kurds and Turks start fighting... Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

The Turks pour in massive reinforcements and push the Kurds back. Turks make drive for northern oil...Kurds reel back, Turks ruthlessly press on.

Should the US get involved in the fight? On whose side?

This could be the situation that supplants coalition victory with a huge disaster. What form could that disaster take?

Game it out, where might the situation go?

	22-03-2003 16:40									#2
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It could very well happen. I don't know how the US military is going to react. WWIII?

	22-03-2003 16:50									#3
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The best strategy would probably to physically put troops between the Turks and the Kurds. I really can't see either side having any desire to start shooting at Americans. However, this would require a very large chunk of the US reserves in the region (which I think is mainly composed of the 101st Air Assault division) and this would greatly slow American war plans.

	22-03-2003 16:55									#4
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Hmm...WWIII or referee.

The US has already told the Turks that since they are not an integrated part of the coalition of the willing, that the US could not "guarantee their safety."

Is that a threat?

	22-03-2003 17:02									#5
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It wouldn't be WWIII, since the Turks don't have any nuclear devices. However, this is going to be a sticky situation, if the Turks refuse to budge. US can't quite strike at the Turks, particularly now that they are both NATO. I don't think the Turks want to make a grab at the oil fields either, they know they will not be able to keep them. So, the best thing the US can do now is to threaten kicking the Turks from NATO if they continue to be offensive.

What will be even more fun is if Iran joins in.

	22-03-2003 17:14									#6
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1500 Turkish troops move into N. Iraq.

WWIII doesn't necessarily imply nuclear warfare.

	22-03-2003 17:30									#7
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Yeah, but nobody will be on the Turk's side. It will only be a regional war.

	22-03-2003 17:34									#8
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I wonder what our Greek friends think about all this?

	22-03-2003 17:37									#9
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Rubbing their hands in glee

	22-03-2003 17:48									#10
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Now MSNBC is saying the Turk troops may or may not be in north Iraq quite yet. But they are on the move!

	22-03-2003 18:31									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Yeah, but nobody will be on the Turk's side. It will only be a regional war.

But I think there will probably also be noone on the side of the Kurds in Iraq (which will be the real loosers of the war)

	22-03-2003 19:10									#12
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What do you mean if?

	22-03-2003 19:23									#13
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Currently, both the Turks and the Kurds deny any entrance of Turkish forces.

	22-03-2003 19:36									#14
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Turkey has no rights what so ever to attack Kurdistan, or Kurds for that matter. They can talk all they want about keeping them in leash, but they are people, not animals!
Turkey better keep their fingers of Kurds and Kurdistan. I say attack 100% if they even start thinking about killing Kurds once again.

	22-03-2003 19:38									#15
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Recommended Coalition response if the situation worsens is to place a limited number of air mobile forces (with combat air support) in the gap between the Turks and Kurds with the implication that any further incursion will be a threat against the US.

I think the US should call the Turks bluff. Who cares about the Turks? They are a bunch of loonies, et at Cyprus & murdering our football fans.............

	22-03-2003 19:47									#16
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Turkey is a big country with power, I think their justification for this and keeping Kurds under leash in general is disgusting. Turkey can handle the situation without killing Kurds. It's outrageous. If Turkey can attack N. Iraq and is not part of the coalition of the willing, then what does this mean? Now anyone can attack Iraq? Is Iraq now free zone where everyone can release their pressures? Who is looking out Kurds? No one has their back, I only hope the US really really looks out for them and doesn't let other countries mess with them.

	22-03-2003 19:54									#17
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It won't happen. I know that's not in th spirit of a "what if" thread, but it does give me a chance to propound my latest theory about this. Right now, all of Turkey is aghast that the US has stopped asking for its help, and the government is being pilloried in the press for having blown the negotiations with the US and ending up empty-handed. My theory is that the troop movements are a form of extortion, a kind of "hey, Uncle Sam, that's a real nice war you got there; it would be a shame if anything happened to it..." If the Turks are trying, in this outrageously inaproppriate manner, to get the US back to the table, I wouldn't be a bit surprised.

	22-03-2003 20:02									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Pekka Turkey is a big country with power, I think their justification for this and keeping Kurds under leash in general is disgusting. Turkey can handle the situation without killing Kurds. It's outrageous. If Turkey can attack N. Iraq and is not part of the coalition of the willing, then what does this mean? Now anyone can attack Iraq? Is Iraq now free zone where everyone can release their pressures? Who is looking out Kurds? No one has their back, I only hope the US really really looks out for them and doesn't let other countries mess with them.

C'mon, Pekka. If you're right, then Turkey is just invoking the Bush Doctrine: that one country can pre-emptorally attack another if it perceives that that country may pose a future threat. The Turks feel threatened by a free Kurdish population; following Bush's logic, the time to go get them is now.

	22-03-2003 20:08									#19
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Current news state that the Turks deny having moved in.

The Kurds have yet to do much, including much that would get the Tursk really fired up, like makng a dash for Kirkut or Mosul. If the US can secure those locations and assure the Turks that they are not in Kurdish hands, fighting could be avoided. If not, then I do the the Turks really coming in.

As for what it would mean? mainly, it would undermine the US "victory" in Iraq, while complicating US_Turkey relations and thus another chink in NATO.

	22-03-2003 20:39									#20
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I noticed a story on the BBC website that cruise missiles had been fired at territory in northern Iraq held by an extremist islamic group linked to Al-Q and suggesting that the Kurds would act with US special forces to take this group out. If so, the US stands to get more help from the Kurds than the Turks.

	22-03-2003 20:51									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly The Turks feel threatened by a free Kurdish population;

They should give them their independance. Kurds are a significant part of the turkish population. Then they won't be afraid of them.


Go Kurds. We did it you can too

	22-03-2003 20:54									#22
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Rufus, I agree with you in to some extent, not 100%

	22-03-2003 20:54									#23
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No surprise, since the Kurds are very likely to hope for Uncle Sam assisting in the future. Just like those Eastern European countries.

	22-03-2003 21:33									#24
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quote: Originally posted by paiktis22 They should give them their independance. Kurds are a significant part of the turkish population. Then they won't be afraid of them. Go Kurds. We did it you can too

Yes, thats what the turks have nightmares about.

That an Independent Kurdistan within Iraq would lead to the Kurds within Turkey also demanding Indepenence.

	22-03-2003 21:45									#25
	Re: What if: The Kurds and Turks start fighting... Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Originally posted by Lancer The Kurds and Turks start fighting...

Then US would have at least one problem more!

	22-03-2003 21:48									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Proteus_MST Yes, thats what the turks have nightmares about. That an Independent Kurdistan within Iraq would lead to the Kurds within Turkey also demanding Indepenence.

Exactly. one thing that continues to amaze me is that the turks still haven't gotten over their War of Independence, when Turkey was invaded by 3 Great Powers (UK, France, Italy) and one pissant country with delusions of grandeur (sorry, paiktis ), and beat them all back to the seas (well, the UK just tactfully withdrew, but you get the idea; in fact, when the Turks were negotiating with the US about using bases, one condition was that they would never allow British soldiers back into the country ). Since then, the Turks have made an absolute fetish out of territorial intergrity; this is why they've been such complete bastards about Cyprus, and it's why they would never, ever let the Kurds carve an independent state out of Turkish territory.

	22-03-2003 21:50									#27
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_one pissant country with delusions of grandeur (sorry, paiktis


No problem Rufus

	22-03-2003 21:53									#28
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however in 2020 when Kurds will make 40% of the turkish population, we'll see what could happen.

(btw we were probably the only onces with legitimate concers about asia minor (greek populations there, and dont forget the asianminor distaster or the back stabbing we too received, but it was too much of a stretch - although we did capture half of turkey and went all the way to ankara )

	22-03-2003 22:16									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Anun Ik Oba 1500 Turkish troops move into N. Iraq.

I've heard though that there are another 12,000 or so just across the border.

	22-03-2003 22:19									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel Currently, both the Turks and the Kurds deny any entrance of Turkish forces.

But Turkey has said they will be sending them in there.