18-04-2003 22:23									#31
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quote: Iraq ---> Syria ---> Turkey ---> Iran ---> (afganistan) ---> Pakistan ---> China ---> North Korea

I'd like to see you defeat Turkey, Pakistan, China, and Iran at 3 weeks a pop. Hell, I'd like to see them done at a rate of 3 years each!

	18-04-2003 22:23									#32
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Yavoon : In my previous post, it is not actions taken against repressive governments that I criticized. It was hostile action. Something needs to be done, I agree on you with that. But the course of action taken by the Bush admin wasn't the right course.

Congratulations! Somebody gets it!

	18-04-2003 22:24									#33
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k=P

	18-04-2003 22:25									#34
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Are you going to quote me out of context?

No. I just answered the question. It seemed like a major concession to me given how long they had been harping on thier desire for talks only to be between the US and themselves.

	18-04-2003 22:27									#35
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I'd have to agree with Spiffor on this one. Bush's policy does make short term gains since "rogue" states are forced to change their tone or get the big stick but the long term effects of this policy will be for a great many third party states will want to develop a larger military in order to be to bad a$$ to be invaded.

Sadly most of the countries which will try to gain nukes (Iran, Syria, maybe Vietnam) just don't have the money to invest in social programs and a large military. That means they're going to be armed with deadly weapons as well as remaining poor, uneducated, and unstable. That can't be good for the future.

	18-04-2003 22:28									#36
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quote: Originally posted by Sava I think that NK would have nukes regardless.

Kim Jing-Il is a hard man to second guess.

From his embracing RoK's "Sunshine Policy," it seems to me that he wants to go down that path. He also wanted to kick start DPRK's economy, if his earlier efforts in econmonic "special regions" (that failed unfortunately) is any indication.

As far as I can tell, nuclear weapons is just another bargaining chip on the table, the most valuable one for the North Koreans, for it will be the one that forces most concessions.

	18-04-2003 22:30									#37
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc No. I just answered the question. It seemed like a major concession to me given how long they had been harping on thier desire for talks only to be between the US and themselves.

Let me refer you to the last sentence in my post:

quote: They know that playing hardball all the time is counterproductive.

	18-04-2003 22:33									#38
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oerdin so ur saying that if we didnt sanction them and we didnt threatan them they would be spending their money on education and democratization?

uhhhh ok.

	18-04-2003 22:33									#39
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger From his embracing RoK's "Sunshine Policy,"

Embracing?

quote: North Korea has so far shown and used force by test-firing ICBM missiles and sending [submarines]. North Korea has no intention to change. They regard our efforts as a means to topple their regime.

http://www.asiaweek.com/asiaweek/99/0226/cs4.html

	18-04-2003 22:35									#40
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quote: Originally posted by yavoon oerdin so ur saying that if we didnt sanction them and we didnt threatan them they would be spending their money on education and democratization? uhhhh ok.

Threats only work when people fear you more than they are proud.

	18-04-2003 22:39									#41
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how is that a response to my post?

	18-04-2003 22:41									#42
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quote: Originally posted by yavoon how is that a response to my post?

I'm sorry, but if you can't see the relevance, I will be unable to educate you.

	18-04-2003 22:43									#43
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wow now ur condescending to me?

i frankly dont see where I made a comment about the effectiveness of threats. so u making some random comment about pride vs fear hardly is a reply to me.

and then going and condescending me when if u really had a pt it would have taken 2-3 lines is frankly sad.

	18-04-2003 22:44									#44
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Remember that Rogue States' power do not all depend on pure fear. In Saddam's Iraq and NK, the leader's power is based on pure fear exerted on the populace. But in Iran and Syria, it is based on the apathy of the populace (somehow comparable with Cuba) : political repression is used only against people that could mobilize the population against their rulers, barely against individual and discreet dissent.

My point is : in these countries, the population has to be satisfied to some extent, and the leaders cannot ignore it. The public opinion is something the leaders have to take into account.
If the population doesn't feel threatened at all, it will be difficult for the ruling elites to spend everything on nukes rather than tap water systems. If the population feels threatened, the increased military spending will happen without resistance.
For example, Cuba is one of these "soft" authoritarian regimes. It became clear Castro's regime couldn't be threatened by the US again after the 1962 incident. I hardly see Cuba actively looking to develop nukes.

Sanctions can have some efficiency in slowing down the nuclear research (not stopping it). But threats have no positive effect whatsoever on these countries' research programs, except if there is a strong resolve to back them.

	18-04-2003 22:46									#45
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger Let me refer you to the last sentence in my post:

Then what does this accomplish other than putting the planned talks in jeopardy? It certainly doesn't make thier bargaining position anymore desirable for them than it already is.

	18-04-2003 22:48									#46
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quote: Originally posted by yavoon wow now ur condescending to me? i frankly dont see where I made a comment about the effectiveness of threats. so u making some random comment about pride vs fear hardly is a reply to me. and then going and condescending me when if u really had a pt it would have taken 2-3 lines is frankly sad.

No, I wasn't being condescending to you. Your posts have shown that you are clearly intelligent, have a clear grasp of the English language, and exceptional typing and grammar skills.

I'll try and explain my point to you, if this doesn't work you can order my Time-Life video series.
1. You said threats are effective
2. I said they weren't unless people are more afraid than proud

	18-04-2003 22:51									#47
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I never said they were effective. I said htat if we weren't doing them would the regimes be engaging in education reform and votes.

i was being sarcastic.

and for the record since the inability to read might be systematic. I dont think sanctions are all that effective either.

sit down now.

	18-04-2003 22:51									#48
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The whole North Korea thing is in my view pretty obvious:

Bush doing some tough talking at home, so he looks sexy to his folks. He's well aware that he can't touch NK.

North Korea does some tough talking, because the use Bush as court jester who will convince the SK's and the Japanese to give NK more money so NK can buy some food and build more Nukes.

Same old song and dance.

	18-04-2003 22:52									#49
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I am sitting.

quote: oerdin so ur saying that if we didnt sanction them and we didnt threatan them they would be spending their money on education and democratization?

Did you forget about this statement?

	18-04-2003 22:53									#50
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quote: Originally posted by yago The whole North Korea thing is in my view pretty obvious: Bush doing some tough talking at home, so he looks sexy to his folks. He's well aware that he can't touch NK. North Korea does some tough talking, because the use Bush as court jester who will convince the SK's and the Japanese to give NK more money so NK can buy some food and build more Nukes. Same old song and dance.

DL DL DL!

This is the same old dance.

	18-04-2003 22:55									#51
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yes and I already explained the pt. It was a sarcastic response to oerdin. he was asserting that their military buildup was due to our sanctions and threats. and that it was keeping them poor and uneducated.

so in turn I posed the question that if we stopped sanctioning and threataning them would they engage in education form..etc...neway. its pretty clear. lets not drag this out just so u can save ur ego or sumtin.

	18-04-2003 22:57									#52
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quote: Originally posted by yavoon yes and I already explained the pt. It was a sarcastic response to oerdin. he was asserting that their military buildup was due to our sanctions and threats. and that it was keeping them poor and uneducated. so in turn I posed the question that if we stopped sanctioning and threataning them would they engage in education form..etc...neway. its pretty clear. lets not drag this out just so u can save ur ego or sumtin.

Just a suggestion; because I've apparantly misunderstood your last, I don't know... all your posts. Could you make an attempt to improve your typing skills so that your posts are somewhat coherent? If not for your sake, do it for me... or the children. THINK OF THE CHILDREN!

	18-04-2003 22:59									#53
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Yavoon :
If you read my post above, I indeed think the "soft" authoritarian regimes will spend more money on education and health if they stop being threatened. I don't think the presence or absence of sanctoins would have any effect on their budget allocation though.

	18-04-2003 22:59									#54
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maybe if u responded in good faith it wouldn't end up like this?

=D hrt tho.

	18-04-2003 23:02									#55
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quote: he was asserting that their military buildup was due to our sanctions and threats. and that it was keeping them poor and uneducated.

BTW, another man, smarter and more experienced in these matters than all of us, recognized that the commitment to militarization that Korea had was in fact starving the people and keeping them poor.

"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, is a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. The world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children... This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from an iron cross." --Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953

And this was 50 years ago.

	18-04-2003 23:03									#56
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quote: Originally posted by yavoon maybe if u responded in good faith it wouldn't end up like this? =D hrt tho.

Aw, I'm sorry yavoon. By now you should know I'm a condescending 4sshole. I still love you though.

	18-04-2003 23:03									#57
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who's soft? u mean iran? I guess I'd agree w/ u depending on the threats. I mean if telling them to not torture or embezzle international aid or build nuclear arsenals. and actually backing it w/ force is a threat. then i dont see where their high ground morally is.

	18-04-2003 23:09									#58
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quote: Originally posted by yavoon who's soft? u mean iran? I guess I'd agree w/ u depending on the threats. I mean if telling them to not torture or embezzle international aid or build nuclear arsenals. and actually backing it w/ force is a threat. then i dont see where their high ground morally is.

	18-04-2003 23:13									#59
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quote: Originally posted by yavoon yes and I already explained the pt. It was a sarcastic response to oerdin. he was asserting that their military buildup was due to our sanctions and threats. and that it was keeping them poor and uneducated.

No, I didn't.

I was speaking about a hypothetical long term reaction to Bush's policy from states which are thinking of developing nukes; as opposed to NK which already has nukes. Is my position a bit more clear now?

	18-04-2003 23:13									#60
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so now u feel special that I wasn't intensely personally offended by ur inane comments about my grammar on the internet?

might as well run w/ it sava. cuz i guess its all u got.