18-04-2003 21:20									#1
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EDIT: Forget the number 600, I'm not actually aiming at that particular year

I've been looking at the map, pondering how I'd like to go about our counterattack vs. Vox.

Here's what I would like to do:

I want two more galleys for the west coast. I want 3 pikemen and a settler.

I want to sail north, and land that stack on the hill 2, 2 from Eliopolis.

Assuming we survive to the next turn (which with 3 pikes, I think we should), we build a city up there. Then the next priority is to get more pikes some offensive units up there to kill any units that try to get around or attack the city. Vox's iron should be cut just by us building the city.

Then we can march on Dissidentville at our leisure, and when we choose to invade Estonia proper, we will do so against an ironless opponent.

Potential downside: we could lose the 3pikes + settler. Upside: if our city survives up there, they're screwed.

I still think they are morons for not building Eliopolis on the hill "2" from their city. I want to make them pay for that mistake.

-Arrian

EDIT: a couple of edits due to me being an idjit about certain things.

Last edited by Arrian on 19-04-2003 at 00:18

	18-04-2003 21:43									#2
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Arrian - I like the plan, but have reservations as to the timing, pending the action around Arashi.

If they attack (and I believe they will), then the ~600 timeframe works for me, cos they won't have much of an army left.

If they do as Theseus has predicted, and march around Arashi heading further south, then we'll need to continue to focus on land-based units (pikes and medievals) to throw a stop-gap force just in front of our second city down the spine, in which case, I do not believe the ~600 date to be a viable timeframe.

But I have to say, I love the plan itself! If we do it though, we put our city in much the same position as Dissidentville is....too remote to be quickly reinforced. To that end, we should also plan for having WC's en route to that area overland? This would enable us to reinforce the area much more quickly than they might otherwise be expecting, if they operate under the assumption that we're relying on ferrying via galleys to bring reinforcements up.

It would be ideal if we could time this attack with a probe toward Dville with slow movers, as a successful attack there would put still more of our forces far enough north to be in a position to provide support for the new town.

One additional thought....for flexibility, how would you feel about adding a third galley, and including an additional pike +1 worker? If they lose their main attack force, we'd be almost guaranteed to hold the town with 4 Pikes sitting in it, cos I can't envision a situation where they could scrape enough force together to push that kind of defense out.

-=Vel=-

	18-04-2003 22:11									#3
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I KNEW that ~600 was gonna get me in trouble.

I don't have a specific date in my head for this operation. It's more along the lines of "when we've beaten back their attack and are ready to take the offensive." I shoulda put ~500 BC.

Regarding an extra galley & pikeman... well, if I had my druthers, I'd have 10 galleys with a massive army on them. But I'm trying to keep it small. 3 pikes & a settler to start with is the minimum I think can work. If we can muster another galley w/pikemen, great. We will have a better feel for the numbers later.

As for reinforcement, it will have to be via galley until we take Dissidentville and get a road connection. Still, with the Lighthouse, our galleys move 4 tiles/turn, which means they can do a pretty fast shuttle run from our NW coast (around where Monsoon is, whether or not the city survives).

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 22:24									#4
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I concur with timing this to match a slowmover attack on D-ville.

Arrian = Rumsfeld

Move fast, keep'em off balance.

	18-04-2003 22:52									#5
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good idea.
1) can you build a city inside someone else's cultural boarders even when you are at war. (I think I remember that you can, but I'd like to be sure)
2) What would you think of also building a horse unit or two for a probe attack on the road to their iron colony (if it is not or only lightly defended)? If we have a city where you plan, and they have no iron it will have the dual effect of an entertaining last stand with archers, and a practical shot at a great leader. On that note if Vox doesn't just fold after they lose the major battles should we try to milk a leader or two out of a contained Vox?

	18-04-2003 23:02									#6
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I'd prefer to scout the area of the colony using the galleys that will offload the troops near Eliopolis, as they return to friendly shores.

	18-04-2003 23:15									#7
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quote: Arrian = Rumsfeld

I suppose I'll take that as a compliment.

quote: I'd prefer to scout the area of the colony using the galleys that will offload the troops near Eliopolis, as they return to friendly shores

That's what the two EAST coast galleys are for. I'm talking about a WEST coast operation.

Randolph, yes, you can build a city inside a civ's cultural borders when at war. That's the key to my plan.

I do this all the time vs. the AI, but of course Vox is not the AI. Still, even if they are smart enough to have those two hills covered, we could still drop the pikes off on a jungle tile and cut off Dissidentville. There is just too much territory for them to cover up there.

-Arrian

	18-04-2003 23:29									#8
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If it were an AI nation, I'd be all for milking, but IMO, humans are just too unpredictable. Odds are that even WHEN we cut their iron, they'll secure another source via trade....we can't rely on them off from their iron source as a perma fix, IMO.

Example - We cut them off from their iron source, they drop to building a mix of warrior/spear until they can secure a deal for Iron from elsewhere and get another round of financing, and suddenly we're looking at big stacks of Immortals again.

I agree that we should take every opportunity to create some GL's....it's just that, the longer the war grinds on with them, the more likely it is that something unpredictable/beyond our control will occur.

-=Vel=-

	19-04-2003 00:01									#9
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I'm not for milking them... I want to kill them ASAP. Cutting their iron is moving toward that purpose. Sure, they might be able to trade for iron... but at that point it would have to be charity. They could not afford to pay for the iron while upgrading warriors to immortals and losing a war.

Anyway, cutting the iron is only one reason I want to do this. The other is creating a strongpoint north of D-ville that stops their forces cold while we can mop up in the south and then move north en masse.

The first thing I'd want our little hill city to build would be walls. Then we're talking about the same defensive prowess as Arashi. That confines them to the north, except by sea, which we seem well-positioned to control.

By the way, I was just thinking... I know you can build inside other's territory, but I cannot remember if building directly adjacent to an enemy city is ok. You can't build your own cities adjacent to one another, but I think I've done it with enemy cities. I just can't remember for sure. Still, the southern hill would work just as well, once we got offensive troops (and cats) up there.

-Arrian

	19-04-2003 00:07									#10
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Sure, taking their iron will be far from a permanent fix, however, they will need to build a harbor before receiving iron in a trade... and I haven't seen any harbor yet. No matter what approach we take to cutting their iron (this city plan sounds lovely), it has to be swift, and followed by an attack force, so that they are forced to build troops, instead of harbors.

I would love to milk them, in order to get some GLs (at least 2), but I doubt they will let us. We need to take their iron before we can set up serious GL farming, but they will realize it, and most likely make one final attempt at regaining territory before they disband all cities they can disband, or before they give their cities to some other team.

BTW, when the first Vox city is about to be taken, we should post on the public forum that if other teams decide to accept gifted cities from Vox, they face an automatical delcaration of war. I'm sure noone would do it, but just in case...

DeepO

	19-04-2003 00:09									#11
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Arrian, you can't build adjacent to another city, you need to be at least 1 tile apart. That first hill is not an option, but if we would be able to settle the second one (right outside their cultural borders), we can.

DeepO

	19-04-2003 00:16									#12
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Yeah, figures. So it's the southern hill, then. That works too.

-Arrian

	19-04-2003 00:17									#13
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quote: I know you can build inside other's territory, but I cannot remember if building directly adjacent to an enemy city is ok.

Can't build a city adjacent to another.

I wouldn't want to risk a Settler with the first landing or in the first Galley(s). The Settlers we do send should be with the main stack, mostly to claim roads culturally so that Immortals can't have the initiative on the attack. If we have 2-3 Settlers, we can advance in almost complete safety past Dissidentville (clear roads with the military 2 tiles ahead, build city, kill any adjacent stacks with Med Inf, finishing it off with WC's that can move back... 1 tile cultural buffer). Having a Settler to clear Jungle with may also prove very important, as Vox is likely to cut their roads if it comes to that (in which case the Settlers aren't needed for keeping road buffers).

I think we will have a spare unit or two to send from Hurricane in 3 more turns. If Vox attacks Arashi, it would be 2 turns. Just landing a unit on the road to the Iron colony is going to help (diverts Immortals away from the front, and means a 1 turn delay for any planned upgrades). If the unit can pillage the road (decent chance if we send a Pike and a Med Inf) Vox has to build a Harbor at least. (80 shields of Immortal down the drain)

	19-04-2003 00:23									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Aeson I wouldn't want to risk a Settler with the first landing or in the first Galley(s).

It's a gamble, yeah. But there is method to my madness. Building a city greatly increases our pikes survivability, as they heal 2x as fast as they would just out in the open, and we can pretty quickly rush walls.

We didn't gamble with A9. That's fine... the battle in/around Arashi is the key to the entire war, and is thus not something one is inclined to play "fast 'n loose" with. But this doesn't require a huge investment, and though it could fail, has a huge upside if it succeeds.

Think "Operation Market-Garden" - it failed (because the Brits had faulty intelligence and didn't know there were 2 Panzer divisions smack in the middle of their paradrop areas), but it wasn't far from success, and had it succeeded, it could have been spectacular.

-Arrian

	19-04-2003 00:53									#15
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If we build the city, we have to defend the city, which pigeonholes what we can do. If we cut the Iron, we could then withdraw to a Mountain, Pike defending and Med Inf taking shots at any passing units, load back on a galley, ect... depending on what we face.

If we lose the landing city, Vox has their Iron right back, and it doesn't cut off Iron to Dissidentville in any case (where all the Warriors will be upgraded).

I think our first landing should be on the road 4 or 47 of the Iron Colony, with 2-3 troops (anything that is available from Hurricane after those Immortals are dealt with). This gives us the best defensive terrain that can be expected, and pillaging the road(s) there probably means Vox's only chance to get Iron anywhere from then on out is to build a Harbor.

	19-04-2003 01:02									#16
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I dunno bud....having studied the maps, I'm on the same page with Arrian on this one.....on a hill, defended by fortified pikes, walls going up quickly.....if we assume that the present strike force is about all they have (extremely likely), then they'll be in no real position to hammer fortified pikemen out of the city, walls or no (tho rushing the walls should be our first priority.....another good reason to try and squeeze a third galley....we could trash the "spare" galley to get some shields for the wall, and then rush, plus we'd have more defenders).

-=Vel=-

	19-04-2003 01:04									#17
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One problem I want to point out with any such city: it will be a cultural nightmare to keep it. Close to their capital, with them pressing tiles in our radius, and while Vox has (over?) double our total culture... that is a gamble in its own. We would be good to fast take out Elipolis, if we settle close to it.

DeepO

	19-04-2003 01:07									#18
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What about, concurrently with building the town and thus blocking forces from the north, landing two Pikes on the road branch and pillaging it? Thus, even if we lose the town, Vox is screwed.

	19-04-2003 01:07									#19
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The borders will touch, yes, but with a largish garrison & purely GS citizens, it's not that big a deal. Plus, consider that our culture will start catching up now, since we have the Lighthouse.

Aeson, I see what you're saying, but I prefer taking the chance on this. Just like with the A9 debate... you saw my points, but felt we ought to go a different route.

I'd like to hear what some of the others think, too.

-Arrian

	19-04-2003 01:36									#20
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quote: if we assume that the present strike force is about all they have (extremely likely)

I think they have 7-10 Immortals + 9-15 Warriors we haven't accounted for that they could have by the time we could land by Elipolis. The Immortals are probably coming S for us ASAP, the Warriors will be trickling down at a rate of close to 3 per turn.

Cutting the Iron access to the N isn't a concern right now... they've already done that themselves. Cutting the Iron to Dissidentville could easily mean the difference between facing 9-15 Warriors or 9-15 Immortals, regardless of whether our city holds or not.

As for holding the city, if they have 3-4 Immortals in the area the turn we land, we may never be able to found the city in the first place. Odds for a Vet Immortal attacking a Vet Pike unfortified on a Hill are 43.6%. Those are the same odds we face in Jungle... but the Settler makes it more costly if we lose, and more valuable to Vox if they win. I doubt they will have any Immortals in the area (unless they reconnect their Iron before then), just Warriors headed to Dissidentville for upgrading.

This city won't cut off the Iron access anywhere the turn we land. It also won't cut off Iron access to Dissidentville where they are likely to be doing all the upgrades. I don't really see the benefit of the city other than blocking Warriors headed to Dissidentville, which are useless anyways if we cut off the Iron.

	19-04-2003 01:38									#21
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A lot depends on when we can spare forces for such an operation. If we can break Vox's momentun at Arashi, we can spare a couple pikes for a road raid while we just have one galley on the west coast. If Vox bypasses Arashi and stays on the mountains, we're more likely to have two or three galleys ready or at least almost ready.

The other big question is how big a garrison of immortals we think Vox has in their core. If they're throwing practically everything they have at us down south, three pikes could probably hold for a while (and force Vox to recall immortals from the South to deal with the new threat), at least if Vox's iron is still cut off at the time. But if we think Vox is maintaning a larger garrison at home to deal with any storms (or Bobians) that might threaten their shores, or if they have iron reconnected and may have newly built or upgraded immortals in their core, the risk of three pikes' not holding would be a lot greater.

	19-04-2003 01:48									#22
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Aeson,

1 War Chariot in that new city I'm proposing could easily pop out and cut the road to Dissidentville. So if we can muster 3 galleys, that would be perfect (4 pikes, 1 settler, 1 WC. Or 3p, 1set, 2wc).

The city is multi-purpose. Your landing is single-purpose (but has a high likelyhood of success.

However, if we land in the jungle north of Diss & cut the road there, they can re-connect their road north of Eliopolis and upgrade any warriors they still have up there in their core. And then suck it up and build Immorts from scratch. EDIT: Or are you talking about an East Coast landing right next to the colony? That makes more sense. I still prefer the city for the staging area it gives us.

-Arrian

	19-04-2003 01:55									#23
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More thoughts on it:

I like the plan for several reasons, but chief among them are:

1) It's unexpected and ballsy. It's just the sort of in-your-face maneuver they won't be expecting, and it will catch them off-guard.

2) I don't see it as boxing us in, or limiting our options, really. Aside from Dissidentville and a singular Iron Colony, everything they have lies north of the choke point, which in turn, lies north of the proposed city site, and if we mean to end them, the proposed city is certainly on the way, and an ideal staging area. We plant it there, and we can choke off any further movement through the whole rest of the continent, save for by sea, and we have a decisive advantage in that arena. As I see it, the presence of the city there moves our operational zone of control from the middle of the continent (Ashari/Monsoon region), far to the north, giving us full control of some 75% of our shared landmass.

3) Timed with a general thrust toward Dissidentville and a push northward through the flatlands by our WC's, we'll have forces reasonably close and capable of supporting the town, furthering our stranglehold on them.

4) With Vox effectively blocked in on land, and out-maneuvered at sea, we can destroy them at our leisure.

Least that's my take on it.

-=Vel=-

	19-04-2003 01:55									#24
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I'm talking about an E coast landing ASAP to cut the roads 4 and/or 47 of their Colony.

This in essense would 'kill' 9-15 Immortals.

	19-04-2003 01:57									#25
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ahhh, and if I'm reading their situation correctly, they will have scant garrisons at home....certainly nothing that would be capable of dealing with three fortified pikes.

-=Vel=-

	19-04-2003 01:58									#26
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I think some sort of a quick limited offensive operation is in order, not only for the "in-game" damage we would inflict Vox: Cutting the Iron and perhaps blocking further reinforcements (if we build a city).

Look at the next few turns, in terms of the Voxian morale and their propaganda effort: they'll just rub our noses in it: our retreat, them moving around freely in our borders, getting close to EotS- they'll be alot more determined, probably recieve some more funding from whoever backs them, and will send more of their boys (if they have anyone up north waiting) down south.

We can handle this, sure, but think of the benefits of us cutting off their Iron- and even popping a city right in the middle of their supply route. First off all- this will throw them off balance, they'll have to re-evaluate the situation, things like: "we have to take their city quick" and maybe "we'll have to divert forces from the southern front".In short, we'll increase the amount of uncertainty amongst them, their sponsers are more likely to raise some eyebrows, and we might gain some respect on the way.

On that account- although Togas' poisoneous words bite us hard, i hardly think anyone hates us that much. Vox is in no way the most favored team- a successful daring operation against the strongest army in the world will get us plenty of credit, as long as we don't boast too much and/or mock Vox about it.

One more thing- If we build a city, Vox doesn't know how many defenders we have, they could think we have actually opened a second front, and make some preparation to take the city with force. This will gain us some more time to prepare the real invasion and pound them, while they are considering their option, given the unexpected move.

In short: Do the unexpected- landing some pikes is good, but landing with a settler is even better!

Do your best- you've been great so far!
I love being part of this team, Go GS!

	19-04-2003 02:00									#27
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Aeson, I don't see why it'd be a problem for us to persue both approaches. We already have galleys in the east, and once the matter of Ashari is decided (2 turns?), we'll either be free to move, or scrambling after a defeat. If we're scrambling, we'll be hard pressed to spare forces for either maneuver for the short term, but if we beat them at Ashari, or if they opt to go around (buying us more time), we will have resources to persue both goals.

-=Vel=-

	19-04-2003 02:02									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian The borders will touch, yes, but with a largish garrison & purely GS citizens, it's not that big a deal. Plus, consider that our culture will start catching up now, since we have the Lighthouse.

Well, the lighhouse is simply worth a temple in culture, they have build 2 temples before, we only have 1 plus the lighthouse. Our culture will not catch up before we build more cultural buildings, on the contrary, it will deteriorate because their temples are older.

Borders will not only touch, their borders will be next to our city. I count 5 foreign tiles for them, if they don't build any cultural building. so, with 3 pikes in it, it would mean somewhere near 2% chance of flipping, or roughly 25 turns on average before it falls. We can offset it by dragging along more defenders, but if their culture is still rising, we would need over 6 of them to be certain to keep it now, and this number will only increase.

If I get a screenshot of the culture rating, I should be able to calculate the exact number of troops needed. 2% is quite high as a chance, if it gets worse, it would be a serious gamble. No matter what, if we decide we are going to take the chance, we should write of the pikes as lost, only hoping that they will fare well (also, position a few med infs near the city, out of reach to their normal forces could help a lot in retaking the city if needs to)

DeepO

[edit:] wow... major screwup. That city doesn't have 2%, but .5% flipping chance, sorry about that. On average, it will last 100 turns before flipping, nothing to worry about.

	19-04-2003 02:08									#29
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I'm fine with both approaches... but we are cutting it rather thin on defense right now, and the sooner the Iron goes, the sooner everything else starts to work.

Our 2 Galleys will be passing Hurricane this turn. They could wait another turn so we know how the 2 Immortals by Hurricane did (and possibly try and pick off a boat), and then pick up any extra troops we have in the Hurricane area to take to the Iron.

The W coast is going to take longer to free up most likely. We don't have a Galley there yet, and don't have a free Settler ready for at least a few more turns.

If we cut off the Iron first it makes the landing by Elipolis (or anything else) easier... At the point where we can spare 6 units (the Settler counts as a Pike + some) I'd prefer landing Med Inf + Pikes by Wittlich in case they start on a Harbor to get Iron from overseas. They may very well just go into disband mode at that point if we land troops in their core.

	19-04-2003 02:09									#30
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I must say this idea of Arrians is quite exciting. a very sexy maneuver.


Impressive sir, impressive. This is something I never would have thought of myself, an advantage of this team environment.