18-04-2003 23:16									#1
	Will the US allow that? Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

I just saw on TV a demonstration in Iraq where the protesters wanted a religious state.
So I was thinking if there are free elections in Iraq and the majority of the Iraqis vote for religious/fundamentalist government will the US allow such a government. The US is saying that they want the Iraqis to be free to choose their government but I think that they won’t allow a fundamentalist party to rule.
And if they do it will be so ironic.
What do you think?

	18-04-2003 23:18									#2
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I think they wouldn't let it.


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sorry

	18-04-2003 23:20									#3
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It's not like the US has much of a choice, unless we decide to permanently occupy the country.

	18-04-2003 23:24									#4
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They'd probably keep putting the election off until the SCIRI was at a low ebb, due to propaganda or random events.

	18-04-2003 23:26									#5
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It has a choice for another dictatorship then.

Although I'd guess many Iraqis are already adverse to both that or a religious state.

It's interesting to see wether Iraq will soon be eclipsed in the global media and left to its own fate be that of a chaos-bordering one, albeit with no worries for the "west" and the oil flowing.


Bush is already having pressures to privitize the Iraq oil industry which means this will take a large chunk of the capital that should be for the Iraqi people to the profits of oil companies.


Of course that begs the question: Bush is being lobbied by the oil indutries?

	18-04-2003 23:27									#6
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We'll choice leaders for the temporary government who are anti-fundamentalist whither they can convince the people to set up a secular western style democracy is another matter. On a side note 1/3 of the Iraq population is Christian and I seriously doubt the Christians would like to see a funamentalist Islamic government set up.

	18-04-2003 23:28									#7
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I think ne gov't that has ongoing fair and democratic elections is fine. they can vote for religious leaders but the religious leaders cant then turn around and remove the democratic system.

tho I'm not sure if the US would allow it in the first place or not. I guess it depends on who.

	18-04-2003 23:28									#8
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resisting urge to yell "I told you so"

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	18-04-2003 23:41									#9
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I think that Iraq is going to become like Turkey. With the US forces playing the role of the Turkish military.

	18-04-2003 23:46									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Sir Og With the US forces playing the role of the Turkish military.

Oppressing and murdering the Kurds?

	18-04-2003 23:46									#11
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It is also a likely scenario. However, I think it will be very hard for the US forces to do that. If this becomes the case pretty soon the american forces will be regarded as an occupying force.

There is also the question of how long the US wants/can afford to stay there.

A very likely scenario IMO is someone taking the role of the secular military dictatorship from Iraq proper.

	18-04-2003 23:49									#12
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On a side note 1/3 of the Iraq population is Christian and I seriously doubt the Christians would like to see a funamentalist Islamic government set up.

More like 3% of the population.

	18-04-2003 23:52									#13
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No, Oerdin is right. On CNN they are now reporting that there are about 10 million Christians that have been oppressed for decades. Saddam hid them in the basement of his palaces.

	18-04-2003 23:54									#14
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Oppose. One to many zeros.

	19-04-2003 00:07									#15
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quote: Originally posted by Sava Oppressing and murdering the Kurds?

No. Just making sure that the country remains secular.

Btw what’s with that Christian population. Apolyton sources range from 3% to 33%. Can somebody provide a reliable link with information on the subject?

	19-04-2003 00:14									#16
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Won't happen. Iraqi population is too split between Shiites and Sunnis.

	19-04-2003 00:15									#17
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Also, if we had to we could rig the election to make a secular candidate win.

Last edited by Shi Huangdi on 19-04-2003 at 00:22

	19-04-2003 00:17									#18
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Ah, Shi is spreading more anti-americanism than even a communist could not do

	19-04-2003 00:30									#19
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There's nothing more that makes people hate America more than our own actions.

	19-04-2003 00:32									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi Also, if we had to we could rig the election to make a secular candidate win.

republicanism at its best i suppose.

	19-04-2003 00:33									#21
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Maybe Jeb Bush will become Iraq's new governor.

	19-04-2003 00:34									#22
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We can send in Al Gore to do it for us. His last attempt to steal the election was foiled last time, but now that he's had some practice he should be better at it.

	19-04-2003 00:35									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi We can send in Al Gore to do it for us. His last attempt to steal the election was foiled last time, but now that he's had some practice he should be better at it.

That's borderline sig material.

	19-04-2003 00:40									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Sava Maybe Jeb Bush will become Iraq's new governor.

That's a good one Sava.

	19-04-2003 00:42									#25
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shi, youre so partisan, that you might have a career in the GOP if you keep it up.

	19-04-2003 00:42									#26
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I laughed with that one too

	19-04-2003 00:47									#27
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Should there be a significant threat of Islamists taking over through elections, I think the US will have the constitution changed to have the presidency/government/senate/whatever as powerless as possible, and that would give very important powers to an 'independant' military and judiciary. Then, they'll tyr to bind the elected fundies to have their revendications very much smoothed over.

	19-04-2003 00:53									#28
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(sending in al gore was a troll in case any of you managed to take that literally)

	19-04-2003 01:09									#29
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quote: Iraqi population is too split between Shiites and Sunnis.

But Shia are 60% of the population and the Kurds are more Sufi than orthodox Sunni in any case. Don't see how secularists could grab more than 30% of the vote, and they'd be dominated by Arab Sunni so the Kurds wouldn't want to deal with them. The only real democratic options are Shia domination or some kind of coalition between moderate but Islamist Shias and Kurdish nationalists.

Also this Tuesday there's supposed to be a GIANT Shia-organizated demonstration in Karbala against US rule. And in many towns in the south Shia clergy have taken over de facto control, there'll be hell if the US tries replacing them with exiles who haven't lived in the country for decades. Basically because of the totalitarian nature of the Ba'athist state the only real organizations that have any real structure at all are the Kurds and the Shia clergy, I just don't see how a anti-Ba'athist secularist party could build up the organizational infastructure to do much of anything besides be the platform of unpopular exiles.

	19-04-2003 05:52									#30
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Right Boshko, But I'd think you would be making a mistake to assume 100% of Shiites going one way or the other- after all many of the people most welcoming to our troops were Shiite. Secular Shiites, Kurds, and Sunni might not be that kean on working with each other, but I'd think they would prefer that to Shiite fundamentalist domination.