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Ned is offline Ned
Prince
of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 20:18
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
Get a grip people: the Sauds are generally as glad to see us gone as you guys are that we leave, though they won;t say it in public. The fact is that we will still jump to protect the Sauds at the drop of a hat if it comes to that, and we will still sell them billions of dolars of top-notch Us hardware.



Are you sure about this? With our troops out, we now can really frank about the Saudi regime. They pulled our chain because of the base.

Now, if they face a revolution, I sincerely doubt we will do a thing. If they are attacked by a powerful neighbor, our attitude will depend upon whether the attack was unprovoked or not. We used to simply stay out of Arab-Arab wars. I think going back to this policy might be a good thing.

I remember, though, how many in the US wanted to declare war on Saudi Arabia when they used the oil weapon on us in '73. I think the next time they try such a thing, they are toast.

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King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 20:24
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The saud sit on top of the world largest know oil reserve, about twice that of Iraq at number 2. They are one fo the biggest customers of US weaponry out there. The sauds get more time at the Bush ranch than anyone else bu Tony. Face it Ned, but the political forces workign for a Washington relation with Riyahd are far more powerful than transiatory public moods of indignation. We might not save the Sauds form internal revolt (anymore than we did the Shah) but if anyone threatens them form the outside, we WILL be there to save thier asses.

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Prince

Feb 2003
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  Old Post 30-04-2003 20:53
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Bush will not p1ss off the Saudis - too much oil there. GWI was really about saving the Saudis, not itty bitty Kuwait. No question though that the Saudis run one of the most repressive regimes in the region though. With the threat of Iraq gone, the Saudis have few security concerns now - Iran possibly but not likely.

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King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
time: 23:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 21:25
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quote:
Originally posted by gunkulator
Bush will not p1ss off the Saudis - too much oil there. GWI was really about saving the Saudis, not itty bitty Kuwait. No question though that the Saudis run one of the most repressive regimes in the region though. With the threat of Iraq gone, the Saudis have few security concerns now - Iran possibly but not likely.


The greatest threat to the Saudis is internal, not external.

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King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 21:26
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Yeah, and by pulling out we help them to defuse that threat: the great threat to them is not from liberal democracts but from Fundi. preachers, and the further the Sauds pull fomr the Us the more they can appease the fundies.

gsmoove23 is offline gsmoove23
Warlord

Oct 2002
time: 05:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 21:29
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Whether troops shot first or people in the crowd is irrelevant as both the word of local civilians and the official army line are suspect. This is just what happens when you have an occupying force in a country that doesn't particularly appreciate the occupier. Troops will get shot at and troops will have reason to believe that a bullet with their name on it is waiting for them around every corner, in every crowd... Best training in the world or not, mistakes will be made.

Good reason for not 'liberating' countries where the populous might not like you.

Chances are the bases are being moved to Qatar or one of those other emirates on any permanent basis, not Iraq.

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King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
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  Old Post 30-04-2003 21:31
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This may well be true, but I think that the obstacles that the royal family faces may be insurmoutable. They cannot economically withdraw from the west and they will probably end up endorsing some type of peace deal with Israel. Given these factors, the fundamentalist may decide that a theocracy is the best way to go in SA. Unfortunately, I think their chances of success are good.

Sava is offline Sava
King
GO GO GO!
Mar 2001
time: 23:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 21:32
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Good post gsmoove.

Democracy is something that the people must want and strive for themselves. Sure, we should help them. But we shouldn't do the work for them. Especially not at the expense of the American people.

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King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
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  Old Post 30-04-2003 21:33
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quote:
Originally posted by gsmoove23
Whether troops shot first or people in the crowd is irrelevant as both the word of local civilians and the official army line are suspect. This is just what happens when you have an occupying force in a country that doesn't particularly appreciate the occupier. Troops will get shot at and troops will have reason to believe that a bullet with their name on it is waiting for them around every corner, in every crowd... Best training in the world or not, mistakes will be made.

Good reason for not 'liberating' countries where the populous might not like you.

Chances are the bases are being moved to Qatar or one of those other emirates on any permanent basis, not Iraq.


I don't think everyone in any country would be happy with any occupying power. From what I can tell, most of the population is glad we are there.

GePap is offline GePap
King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 21:35
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quote:
Originally posted by PLATO1003
This may well be true, but I think that the obstacles that the royal family faces may be insurmoutable. They cannot economically withdraw from the west and they will probably end up endorsing some type of peace deal with Israel. Given these factors, the fundamentalist may decide that a theocracy is the best way to go in SA. Unfortunately, I think their chances of success are good.


I ams ure the Sauds will be last in line to post their agreement once an deal is truck in many years. Once such a deal gets strong Pal. support that lasts, the fundie preachers can be dealt with.

gsmoove23 is offline gsmoove23
Warlord

Oct 2002
time: 05:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 21:45
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quote:
Originally posted by PLATO1003


I don't think everyone in any country would be happy with any occupying power. From what I can tell, most of the population is glad we are there.


Oh really? You don't think that Iraqis might dislike our presence in their country a little more then say French or Germans or Japanese or South Koreans or... Not just a little eensy weensy bit. Almost every interview I've seen with Iraqis they want the US out, whether or not they're pleased with the removal of Saddam, except of course those Iraqis backed by the US government. C'mon, your head is in the sand, try again.

gunkulator is offline gunkulator
Prince

Feb 2003
time: 00:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 21:58
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quote:
Originally posted by gsmoove23


Oh really? You don't think that Iraqis might dislike our presence in their country a little more then say French or Germans or Japanese or South Koreans


Um, no, not really. What makes you so certain that there is something fundamentally different about Iraqis than, say, the Japanese of 1945? Let's turn the question around: What reasons would those other countries have for liking the US better than the Iraqis?

Shi Huangdi is offline Shi Huangdi
Emperor
Pittsburgh, PA
Apr 1999
time: 00:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 22:22
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
The saud sit on top of the world largest know oil reserve, about twice that of Iraq at number 2. They are one fo the biggest customers of US weaponry out there. The sauds get more time at the Bush ranch than anyone else bu Tony. Face it Ned, but the political forces workign for a Washington relation with Riyahd are far more powerful than transiatory public moods of indignation. We might not save the Sauds form internal revolt (anymore than we did the Shah) but if anyone threatens them form the outside, we WILL be there to save thier asses.


Unfortunately, he is right. We don't like the current government in power in Saudi Arabia, but it's hard to imagine what it could be repalced with. There is very strong fundamentalist pressure in Saudi Arabia, much worse then in Iraq. Most of the present opposition to the current regime are Islamists who would most likely be worse then the current regime, they might well actively harbor Bin Laden.

I can't imagine the consequences of something like "Operation Arabian Freedom"? Unlikely Iraq where many are grateful for our liberation and many were waving American flags, in Saudi we'd be dealing with a hateful population that would resist us bitterly, and they would be certain to use guerilla warfare agaisnt us in the deserts and cities. Worse, they would probably hole themselves up in Mecca and Medina? Can you imagine the US bombing those cities, or even worse storming their gates!? That would be the type of thing that would cause a war between civilizations, just what Bin Laden wants.

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
King
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Sep 2001
time: 21:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 22:27
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OF course they don't like us but they also didn't like Saddam either and that didn't stop them from licking his boot for 30 years now did it? I'm hoping we can hold it tegether for a year or so that way we'll be able to draft a new constitution and set up a more agreeable government.

BTW The U.S. will have long term bases in Iraq; just ask the Germans, Japanese, Bosnians, Italians, Kosovars, Koreans...

Last edited by Oerdin on 30-04-2003 at 22:32

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
King
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Sep 2001
time: 21:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 22:30
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With regards to the fundies and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. My hat is off for Blair; he's done more then any other man to push Bush into dealing with this issue. The Brits are right we will never be rid of the fundies as long as the Jewish-Arab problem continues to fester.

What we need is a real peace plan that sets up a real Palestinian government that will come down like a ton of bricks on the fundies.

TCO is offline TCO
Emperor
Richmond, VA
Jan 1970
time: 00:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 22:31
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I think the initial popular reaction may be similar. The difference is that in 1945 we had completely dominated Japan and Germany and there were few other unconquered sympathetic countries nearby. And the entire world had decided that the Germans and Japs were shameful.

Nowadays, there is much more public discussion that encourages insurrection and resistance in Iraq. Varying from the Al Jazeera message to the Euro message (finding fault). I'm not so much making a point as to whether this is right or wrong. Just saying that the dynamic is different and that this has an effect on the Iraqis.

gsmoove23 is offline gsmoove23
Warlord

Oct 2002
time: 05:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 22:35
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quote:
Originally posted by gunkulator


Um, no, not really. What makes you so certain that there is something fundamentally different about Iraqis than, say, the Japanese of 1945? Let's turn the question around: What reasons would those other countries have for liking the US better than the Iraqis?


The fact is the Japanese, even in 1945, offered far less resistance to US occupation once the war was over then the Iraqis are offering now. Could you imagine a significant military presence staying in Iraq for more then 50 years as it has in Japan? Japanese leaders were primarily responsible for the conflict that was fought, while in Iraq the people have a significant animosity to US policy even without the propagandizing by Saddam.

EDIT - Ah, you already addressed this, I hate when that happens.

Sandman is offline Sandman
Prince
Sinister Penguin
Aug 2001
time: 05:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 22:55
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quote:
Originally posted by Ned
FYI, I have seen video of bullet holes in the school occuppied by the US troops. I have also heard that the firefight went on for hours.

But, of course, the Iraqi's were fighting for hours without weapons.


The Telegraph reports:

quote:
There were bullet holes in two windows of a class room and some bullet marks on the walls.


The Independent notes that:

quote:
Yet there are no bullet holes visible at the front of the school building or tell-tale marks of a firefight. The place is unmarked. By contrast, the houses opposite – numbers 5, 7, 9, and 13 – are punctured with machine-gun fire, which tore away lumps of concrete the size of a hand and punched holes as deep as the length of a ballpoint pen. Asked to explain the absence of bullet holes, Lt-Col Nantz said that the Iraqi fire had gone over the soldiers' heads. We were taken to see two bullet holes in an upper window and some marks on a wall, but they were on another side of the school building.


The reports don't contradict each other, but one does not tell the full story. Is the Independent lying, or were those bullet holes on the other side of the building, away from the firefight?

http://www.dailytelegraph.co.uk/new...4/30/wirq30.xml

http://news.independent.co.uk/world...sp?story=401718

PLATO is offline PLATO

King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
time: 23:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 23:01
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gs, I have never been accussed of having my head in the sand before. But in being aware of the situation in Iraq one could assueme that it is a compliment

Seriously, the coverage that I have seen has centered on "what is the level of dissent". It appears that while dissent is there that the vast majority of the Iraqi people are glad Saddam is gone.

Long term, I think that dissent will grow due to the factors that you have stated. I think that the Iraqi people, as a whole, were glad to see us come...and will be glad to see us go.

gunkulator is offline gunkulator
Prince

Feb 2003
time: 00:27
  Old Post 30-04-2003 23:26
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quote:
Originally posted by gsmoove23


The fact is the Japanese, even in 1945, offered far less resistance to US occupation once the war was over then the Iraqis are offering now.


Perhaps. Satellite TV hadn't been invented yet and at the very least, there were far fewer reporters in Japan in 1945 than there are in Iraq today. The media of 1945 was far more of a puppet to US interests than today. Also note that Japan suffered far more civillian casualities at the hands of the US than Iraq has. And there is that little matter of an atomic bomb or two...

quote:
Could you imagine a significant military presence staying in Iraq for more then 50 years as it has in Japan?


Today? no. Twenty years ago I couldn't imagine the European Union, let alone Poland ever joining.

quote:
Japanese leaders were primarily responsible for the conflict that was fought,


Same is true in Iraq.

quote:
while in Iraq the people have a significant animosity to US policy even without the propagandizing by Saddam.


Not sure what you mean here. IIRC, Japan was also subject to a US led trade embargo before the war. They certainly had no reason to love Americans before or after the war.

gsmoove23 is offline gsmoove23
Warlord

Oct 2002
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  Old Post 01-05-2003 00:26
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quote:
Perhaps. Satellite TV hadn't been invented yet and at the very least, there were far fewer reporters in Japan in 1945 than there are in Iraq today. The media of 1945 was far more of a puppet to US interests than today. Also note that Japan suffered far more civillian casualities at the hands of the US than Iraq has. And there is that little matter of an atomic bomb or two...


Whatever the case the dissent that we see in Iraq wasn't at the same level in Japan. Whatever the specifics of the case are this is the reality that we have to deal with or do you propose getting rid of Al Jazeera and cracking down on any semblance of free speech.

There is strong anti-americanism in Iraq it was there before the 1st GW and it was in the surrounding countries as well. More then half of its neighbouring countries support terrorism, why am I even argueing, this is a waste of my time.

Plato, I completely agree you're head is in the sand. They like that Saddam is gone but they will like it even better when both Saddam and Bush are gone.

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King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
time: 23:27
  Old Post 01-05-2003 00:38
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quote:
Originally posted by PLATO1003 Long term, I think that dissent will grow due to the factors that you have stated. I think that the Iraqi people, as a whole, were glad to see us come...and will be glad to see us go.


quote:
They like that Saddam is gone but they will like it even better when both Saddam and Bush are gone.


Hmm...Does this mean we are in agreement?

gsmoove23 is offline gsmoove23
Warlord

Oct 2002
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  Old Post 01-05-2003 00:39
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Aaaah, enjoy it while it lasts.

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King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
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  Old Post 01-05-2003 00:41
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quote:
Originally posted by gsmoove23
Aaaah, enjoy it while it lasts.


gunkulator is offline gunkulator
Prince

Feb 2003
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  Old Post 01-05-2003 00:44
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quote:
Originally posted by gsmoove23


Whatever the case the dissent that we see in Iraq wasn't at the same level in Japan.


That's actually my point. We didn't see any Japanese dissent but it is highly unlikely that the reason was because there was none. Japanese culture even today is both racist and xenophobic. In 1945, Americans were considered inferior barbarians, almost subhuman.

quote:
There is strong anti-americanism in Iraq it was there before the 1st GW and it was in the surrounding countries as well.


Perhaps you can show some evidence of this. While I've certainly seen anti-American protestors in Iran and Israel, I don't recall much of a history of Iraqi protestors before the war.

quote:
More then half of its neighbouring countries support terrorism, why am I even argueing, this is a waste of my time.


No argument from me.

quote:

They like that Saddam is gone but they will like it even better when both Saddam and Bush are gone.


Undoubtably, however since we are, in fact, there and in control, it would be a disservice to leave before the country achieves some measure of stability. The US only entered Iraq on Mar 21. IIRC, the US stayed in control of Germany for years after the war was over.

gsmoove23 is offline gsmoove23
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Oct 2002
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  Old Post 01-05-2003 00:57
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Gunkulator, any number of history books on the subject of the occupation of Japan will not even hint at the levels of opposition we have seen in only the first month in Iraq. They have had a long time to collect eyewitness accounts on both sides, its just not there.

My point was that US soldiers shooting innocent civilians is a natural product of an occupation of Iraq, whether there were gunmen in the crowd or not. Whether you believe the people support US troops being their or not the troops actually know they don't and they are justifiably scared. The best we could do for the Iraqis and our own reputations is allow the UN to run the show now.

I'm not saying UN troops wouldn't have the same problems, just that they would suffer less criticism for it in the Arab press and we would have someone else to blame.

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King
Of the occupied South
Dec 2002
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  Old Post 01-05-2003 01:06
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1st of all, the Japanese resistance was nil due to the fact that it was a matter of honor to obey the Emperor's command. He said "lay down your arms" and they did. Immediately and without question. Iraq does not have the same societal structure.

2nd, UN troops have consistently proven unreliable in the role that you are defining. Bosnia provides a lucent and tragic example.

3rd, If theattitudes you describe are so prevalent, then critisism for any US role would be the same. We would be held responsible regardless of the circumstances. IMHO, we will do a better job of restoring order than the UN could do under the best of circumstances.

gsmoove23 is offline gsmoove23
Warlord

Oct 2002
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  Old Post 01-05-2003 01:18
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I never understood the bad rap some people give the UN in Bosnia. I don't think you could possibly have a more difficult job of trying to keep peace there. In all of its peace keeping missions I think the UN has done admirably considering the situations that existed beforehand.

Anyway, giving the UN run of the show does not necessarily mean that the US should pull out completely but perhaps negotiate an independant role where it can still carry out necessary military operations but leave the administering and urban policing (the most difficult jobs) to the UN. Somewhat like in Afghanistan, and this time funding won't be a problem because of oil.

Whatever you feel will happen, this would quash much of the criticism thrown at the US today.

Ned is offline Ned
Prince
of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:27
  Old Post 01-05-2003 01:41
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Sandman, you raise enough points here that justify an investigation. Perhaps our troops reacted to stone throwing alone with direct fire.

There is a recent movie about just such an event. The officer in charge ordered his men "to return fire." A lot of civilians were killed.

He was court-marshalled. The theory was that the demonstrators did not have weapons and the commander screwed up.

So I think the Army ought to investigate. If the mob was only throwing stones, the response should have been to fire over their heads -- at least at first.

But, can you imagine the stupidity of people in a mob who throw stones at heavily armed soldiers during a war? Just what in the world did they expect as a response?

Ned is offline Ned
Prince
of Aptos, CA
Oct 1999
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  Old Post 01-05-2003 01:54
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quote:
Originally posted by gsmoove23
I never understood the bad rap some people give the UN in Bosnia. I don't think you could possibly have a more difficult job of trying to keep peace there. In all of its peace keeping missions I think the UN has done admirably considering the situations that existed beforehand.

Anyway, giving the UN run of the show does not necessarily mean that the US should pull out completely but perhaps negotiate an independant role where it can still carry out necessary military operations but leave the administering and urban policing (the most difficult jobs) to the UN. Somewhat like in Afghanistan, and this time funding won't be a problem because of oil.

Whatever you feel will happen, this would quash much of the criticism thrown at the US today.


gsmoove, you do know about Sebrenicia, don't you?

Also, there is a recent movie out concerning an incident where soldiers from opposing sides were caught in no mans land. Both sides wanted the UN to come to rescue the soldiers. They did, but the French and UK commanders countermanned the order even as the UN troops were in the middle of no mans land rescuing the troops. The UN sergeant and his men were ordered to leave.

The asserted reason for the order was that it was too dangerous for the UN troops to get involved.

The lunacy of the order needs no explanation. But it was this same lunacy that caused Sebrenicia. The UN troops would have had to actually engaged the Serbs in combat in order to save the people of Sebrenicia. But, as has been often said here, such actions are too dangerous for UN peacekeepers.

Crap! I say. Pox on the UN peacekeepers. The examples of their perfidy in allowing massacres of innocent civilians by armed militias and terrorists is legion. Since the UN SC is nominally in charge and gives the orders, nothing will change unless the UN SC changes. But, as we have seen in the case of Iraq, the UN SC is essentially dysfunctional. It's internal divisions condemn it ultimately to effeteness. It has the pantomime of power, but the reality of smoke and illusions. Nothing will ever change this. We all know this to be true.

 
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