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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002 time: 00:28
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My view of the situation:
I have a strong belief that CDG and GCA are in bed with each other. GCA's frighteningly aggressive city placement gives me the impression that CDG and GCA have some sort of deal. Even if it's a fake deal, I don't see how GCA could build in such a manner with any sense of security.
So, in my opinion that leaves 2 situations: CDG and GCA are working together, or may have even allied against us.
Or CDG is tricking GCA, and plans on attacking them.
I think it's more likely that CDG is aiming after us. Sitting on the iron, building that road, etc. is just very suspicious.
So what do we do?
I think there's two different phases that we should go through to deal with this situation.
Phase 1: Diplomacy and Buildup
I don't believe that war with CDG is inevitable, even if CDG plans on attacking us now. I think that with a little diplomatic nudging, we can thwart CDG's possible ambitions towards us.
My proposition is that someone on good standing with CDG, but not from the FAM department talk with Kentonio alone. In this discussion, the person will "unofficially" inform Kentonio that we've spotted what CDG is up to, and many people suspect that CDG is going to attack Apolyton. This person lets Kentonio know that a wave of paranoia has swept across the team, and many people are advocating the creation of a large defense force to deal with any potential threat. The entire conversation would be between only Kento and one of ours, and we have to make sure the what that person says is viewed as "unofficial." This potentially prevents Kentonio or CDG from viewing the discussion as an insult (as many of you will recall, very bad things happened last time we tried to pin them officially on something), and I'm of the opinion that a more informal "tip" will spare our relations the strain while getting the same point across.
Meanwhile, we continue preparing for war as we have been. Barracks, Warriors for upgrade, NMs, etc. You guys know the drill. If they attack then we'll still be ready.
If they are planning to attack us, then this may thwart their intentions. If they know we're preparing for them, they might change their minds.
Or it might not. This isn't a perfect plan by any means. They might just shrug it off and attack anyways. They might get "offended" by our "unofficial informant" anyways, despite our efforts to the contrary. But at least we tried, and we have a chance to change their minds. If they're planning to attack us, we may stop that. If they aren't, then hopefully the "unofficial" part of the "warning" will allow our relations to maintain some sort of normalcy... telling them in an official manner that "we have our eye on you" isn't good in case they do attack GCA. 
Phase 2: Dealing with the Offensive
This part of the plan deals with what happens if CDG does attack us. To be continued. 
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MrWhereItsAt
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New Year's Resolution: 2005 is the year of Where It's At - come get some.
Nov 2001 time: 17:28
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Have read the log.
Now, Trip, your first post suggests you are in what I see as the correct sort of frame of mind here - that we have reason to be dubious and to be aware of potential GCA/CDG collaboration, but as for the idea, hypothetical considerations of how CDG would see certain people bringing this idea about are not quite the issue in my mind.
What would doing this accomplish? All we want at the moment is for Morris to leave, and to avoid such future incursions, which, although undesirable, are not presently illegal. If we tell them we suspect them - what does that accomplish? They surely know about our Warrior curtain, and there appears to be no way they can get around it without us noticing with a few turns preparation. They know we have an embassy, and we have drawn our own conclusions from the fact they have Immortals. Telling them we are doubtful of their intentions isn't going to do much - either they have decided to prepare to attack, and they will attack (Immortals for f^ck's sake!), or they have not decided to attack. Nothing short of an alternate threat or a superior display of buttloads of soldiers will stop what they have planned, neither of which we can easily arrange.
As it is we are preparing for them just in case. Why don't we just let them know we are building up Archers and NMs for training with Barbs, so that if they see them they know it is just Barb-hunting? This to me sounds like a polite and perfectly correct notice of military maneouvres, and puts them at ease in that they can specify where they don't want us, and prepare themselves in case we did attack - effectively giving them peace of mind, as it is a known situation that has been planned for. This is more subtle than bluntly letting them know we distrust them.
Furthermore, in the chatlog they actually requested a boundary so that incursions like Morris' wouldn't happen. There is no downside to this that I can see, as long as, like the NAP, it expires every now and again and must be renewed.
To conclude then, I think it is both risky and ineffectual to let them know what we think. We should preferably aim to get to our objectives of getting rid of Morris and preventing any incursions/sneak attacks via a different method - that of building cooperation. Forming a boundary and letting them know we have troops for barb-farming roaming about is a way of telling them 1. we don't want their troops near us and 2. we have troops ourselves, without any possibility of offense!
Please consider this as a less risky alternative that serves our purposes.
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vondrack

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Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002 time: 06:28
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Frankly, I do not care whose idea it was to speak to CDG in the way that's proposed in this thread - and... ahem... nobody should care - or shall I bump up my post about questioning ideas, not their authors? We are not paying any premiums for coming with ideas up, right?
Here is what I think about the proposal:
1) "unofficial, yet seriously taken conversation" - we cannot really have an "unofficial" conversation with CDG, that would be perceived as "backed up by authority enough" - these things are mutually exclusive. If nye talks to Kentonio, it will be everything, but unofficial. Trying to make it look different later on would be ridiculous.
2) "private conversation" - OTOH, I do agree with another point that was side-mentioned in one of the previous posts (can't remember, whose point it was ) - that we should try arranging a PRIVATE conversation between Kentonio and one of our consuls. A debate that would lack the casuality of the group meetings - no beer joking and things like that (that are perfectly fine for such casual meetings), but serious business. Not a secret talk, but one that will be conducted strictly between two individuals only. I believe that any one of our consuls would be up to such a task.
3) the timing - as posted in another thread, I believe it is still a little bit early for this "last ditch" effort. ATM, Morris is just "visually disgusting" where he is. He does not hamper our activities in any way, he is not a threat to us (btw - it would be even worse if he moved SW)... so any requests to remove him may and probably would be countered by CDG's request to remove our warrior screen located North of their territory. And to be honest, it would be reasonable and difficult to object. However, once our settler and his escort move into the position SW of the iron, it will be time to plainly inform CDG that we are going to build a city there on the next turn and that their warrior staying on the iron hill would actually do harm to Apolyton - by preventing us to improve the new city radius in the way we will see fit (our Worker 4 'EVC' will be just about ready to move onto iron and road it). IMHO, that will be the moment for a private conversation between our consul and their President. What message our consul should pass to CDG at that time, remains subject to discussion. But until that moment, let's just happily keep talking about the new NAP.
4) the message - the message Kentonio should receive at that moment should be very clear: "Apolyton prefers peace with Elucidia. However, it is deeds, not words that make friends. Leaving Morris blocking our most conveniently located iron resource (I would put it this way, yes - and politely refuse to answer any direct questions on more iron deposits within our reach) and the best tile of our new city would be harmful to Apolyton. Friends do not do harm to each other. Apolyton has never done anything that could be considered "harm" to CDG. So, we respectfully demand Morris leaves his "observatory" immediately, so that when we found our new city on the next turn, we will be able to start improving its radius. If, for whatever reason, Morris did not move, we'd not be able to believe CDG truly wanted peace and cooperation."
5) the timing again - this message should be passed in a private chat to Kentonio just before they play their turn preceding the foundation of our iron city - so that they can see we do have a settler there and remove Morris to show they want peace and no troubles. If they do not move, we spend one more turn talking to them - this time in a very cold, harsh way (maybe through a PM only): "Morris either leaves our territory at once, or we remove him forcefully." If they still not leave, we send them a quick note saying "we will act accordingly", finish the archer in Incensity and go kill Morris with no more warning, so that they know we mean business. This also fits in with the Worker 4 'EVC' schedule - he will spend the following 2 turns finishing the road in jungle, then 1 turn moving to the hill SE, then 3 turns roading it - that's 6 turns.
Timing summary:
Turn 54 - negotiating NAP, Settler moves to Bananatopia, Worker 4 'EVC' finishes the road in 2 turns, Incensity at 8S
Turn 55 - negotiating NAP, Settler moves to Bananatopia, Worker 4 'EVC' finishes the road this turn, Incensity at 10S
Turn 56 - negotiating NAP, Settler moves S (2) escorted by Mao, Worker 4 'EVC' moves SE (3) escorted by Hagbart, Incensity at 12S
Turn 57 - negotiating NAP, Settler moves S (2) again with his escort, Worker 4 'EVC' starts road (done in 3 turns), Incensity at 14S
Turn 58 - PRIVATE TALK TO CDG, Settler moves E (6) with his escort, Worker 4 'EVC' roading (done in 2 turns), Incensity at 16S
Turn 59 - COLD/HARSH NOTE TO CDG, Settler builds city, Worker 4 'EVC' finishes the road this turn, Incensity at 18S
Turn 60 - "BE IT YOUR WAY THEN" note, Incensity finishes Archer that moves N of Bananatopia... Worker 4 'EVC' either idles or starts mine
Turn 61 - Archer moves E of Bananatopia, stops after crossing the river
Turn 62 - Archer strikes, followed by Hagbart if losing (and Mao from the iron city, if Hagbart loses as well)
If we do it this way, I believe CDG would move Morris on Turn 58. If not, we would have two options on Turn 59 (based upon how the private chat would go):
a) if we see no will to accomodate us, we proceed with finishing the archer, wasting no time
b) if we see good will, but "something prevents them from moving Morris immediately" (remember what happened to nye with W2 'BigFree' recently), switch the Incensity build to Barracks
If we do not finish the archer and they still do not move, we finish or switch back to the archer on Turn 60 (wasting total of 2 shields in Incensity) and go hostile.
I do not think we can do more to prevent war and to prevent wasting our shields. In case we end up going to war, we lose just 2 shields (from the delayed Incense archer build). In case we end up with Morris leaving peacefully, we would have our iron connected 2 turns later at latest.
P.S.: Just read MWIA's note... the problem with the "border" they want is that we would have to remove our warrior screen, which we do not want to. We aim for establishing the "no units inside cultural borders allowed" only - that leaves us free to expand wherever we wish, but allows us (both parties, actually) to watch the other party.
Here is a completely new idea:
(just occured to me when talking to MWIA)
What about making an agreement with CDG, allowing us to have our screen N/NE of their cultural borders and them to have a similar screen S/SW of our cultural borders? The screens would be obliged to move every time cultural borders expand (be it from culture or new cities). That should make them feel safe(r), it would be even, fair, and hopefully making them finally trust us we mean no harm unless they do. If the screen consisted of warriors only, it could serve for purely observing reasons only, as warriors suck even against spears...
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MrWhereItsAt
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New Year's Resolution: 2005 is the year of Where It's At - come get some.
Nov 2001 time: 17:28
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Yes this last idea seems terrific, and more likely to be accepted by CDG. I just want to point out that our warrior screen stays where it is (maybe one or two minor moves), and they set up a screen between our screen and our cities. Then, when culture expands, the screens must move towards their own territory, eventually crossing paths and then staying where they are, defining a real border.
Negotiating this would involve moving Morris naturally - to form one of the screens. No need for us to demand anything, just ensure the only troops allowed in our territory (or in theirs) were the two or three warriors that constituted the screen.
A mutually beneficial agreement, involving mutual trust to a degree we can handle and cooperation to an extent. And if we DID have to demand they move Morris (we don't get this idea to work), then perhaps we should go one step more subtle, and instead of calling it our "most conveniently located Iron resource", how about "A conveniently located Iron resource". We are not as strongly implying we have more open to us this way. The less concrete info we give the better, but we want to instill some doubt in their minds at the same time that we have only one.
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vondrack

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Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002 time: 06:28
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quote: Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt
No need for us to demand anything, just ensure the only troops allowed in our territory (or in theirs) were the two or three warriors that constituted the screen. |
I would just clarify - that our before territory should be in quotation marks. We do not really wish to define anyone's outside-the-cultural-borders territory yet, as we believe we will be able to outREX CDG, grabbing a good share of the jungle between us.
quote: Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt
A mutually beneficial agreement, involving mutual trust to a degree we can handle and cooperation to an extent. And if we DID have to demand they move Morris (we don't get this idea to work), then perhaps we should go one step more subtle, and instead of calling it our "most conveniently located Iron resource", how about "A conveniently located Iron resource". We are not as strongly implying we have more open to us this way. The less concrete info we give the better, but we want to instill some doubt in their minds at the same time that we have only one. |
I am still undecided about what approach we should take... if we imply this may be our only iron, it may encourage them to make troubles, leading possibly as far as to a war. If we indirectly suggest we would be able to connect another iron, just not that conveniently, they may realize how futile their effort is... But as I said - I am undecided on this issue yet.
But thinking of this, I agree that MWIA's wording is probably the best. It says nothing about our other iron sources or lack of them.
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Adrian Hon
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Living in Perplex City
Nov 2001 time: 05:28
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I also support the double-screen affair; it is a little like the reciprocal inspection flights that occured between the US and USSR during the Cold War to monitor missile launch sites. It seems like a fair solution that will build trust.
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wervdon
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Is CDG and GCA are working together, then we don't need to tell them what we know in any unofficial or official way, GCA knows and would of already have done so. Which, incidently, could very easily explain why they are being cooperative (borders, tech deal) all of a sudden after such a long period of coldness. Put us at ease, hopefully lull us into not building up defenses, then chopping our heads off.
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002 time: 00:28
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Phase II:
This partially includes our build-up, since I haven't posted what I would like to see anywhere else. 
Before the War.
Should it come, of course. 
This is basically what I would like to see us doing:
Apolyton and Bananatopia will continue on their paths as "pumps" to produce Settlers and Workers and occasional NMs/Warriors, with the other cities (mainly Mingapulco and Incensity) being used as unit pumps. Mingapulco and Incensity can both get to 5 SPT pretty easily, and Mingapulco even has the capability of getting up to 7 at size 4.
I believe the 3 hill tiles adjacent to Apolyton should be mined before 20 turns passes, since they will be able to provide a boost to our production should we need it. This will be especially important for Incensity... when it gets to size 3, it will not be growing if at 5 SPT, or will only expand every 20 turns if at 4 SPT. We need to capitalize on this and not waste that.
"Stalliongrad" (Horse City) can also get up to 5 SPT, but it is in the same position as Incensity... not many good tiles nearby to work, and will take some time to get up to full production capability.
While Mingapulco and Incensity ideally produce Barracks first, the other cities can focus upon NMs and Warriors. After the Barracks, I would like to see a mix of NMs and Warriors from Mingapulco and Incensity, the ratio dependant upon how out treasury grows in the future (more money means more Swordsmen upgrades).
Therefore... in 20 turns, I would like to see:
Mingapulco: size 4, 5+ SPT. Incensity: size 3, 5 SPT. Stalliongrad/Horse City: size 2, ~3 SPT. Iron City: beats me. 
Barracks in Mingapulco and Incensity, 4 NMs, 2 new vet Warriors at home and enough cash to upgrade 3 or 4 Swordsmen.
We can take two different paths, the way I see it.
We can either horde gold for upgrades with Swordsmen, turning down our research and making Stalliongrad into a new production center like Mingapulco/Incensity, or we can go 100% research, finish Map Making sooner, and pre-build a Galley in Stalliongrad. This could help our scouting, since it doesn't look like that CDG Warrior on the isthmus is going anywhere any time soon.
I'm leaning towards hording gold and making Stalliongrad into another production city. Scouting with that galley can wait, especially if we're going to trade maps with CFC.
Let me know what you think.
Well, I guess I'll make the military part of the plan phase III. 
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