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vondrack
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Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002
time: 06:28
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quote:
As announced in the other Fresh Air thread, here is the proposed long-term strategy currently supported by the Consuls. The Consuls intend to start a grand debate with this draft, eventually leading - through an official poll - to the adoption of the Apolyton Long Term Strategy Plan (AltSp), which would be sort of a general "law" or "guideline" valid for tens of turns, binding for our representatives until changed by another Senatorial vote.
This general plan is more than open for discussion, criticism, suggestions, and changes. THIS is where EVERYBODY is supposed to comment, should it be just plain "I love it" or "it's a total crap" posts. Everybody, make yourself heard! |
The Cornerstones Of Our Strategy In The ISDG
1. The First War
Sooner or later, we are bound to fight our Southern neighbour. Inevitable primarily because of the geography of our landmass. Our "natural" share of the weirdly shaped landmass is not big enough to allow winning the game peacefully. As CDG (or anyone conquering them) is our only immediate neighbour, chances of avoiding any and all conflicts with them are virtually nil – sooner or later, we will have to fight for more land. Our long-term strategy shall thus be centered around this inevitable „First War“ – everything or almost everything we are or will be doing should actually be part of the grand preparation for it.
2. Fighting on OUR terms
The First War shall be the point of break for us in this game. Either we win, destroy our neighbour, grab his land as far as Goatville, and keep our hopes of winning this game later on, or we die fighting, losing the game. Considering the importance of The First War, we have to do anything and everything possible to ensure we win it. Thus, the timing, the ground, and the weapons shall be preferrably of our choice. Once we attack, there shall be no doubts about us winning.
As long as the war is not imminent or planned to start, we shall maintain a standing army capable of delaying reasonably "expectable" CDG attacks for 10 turns, that would be spent switching our economy from growth/expansion-oriented to fully war-oriented. Preferrably, the size of such an army shall be modest enough to save us from extensive gold upkeep (considering our worker force needs, as a rule of thumb: 2 military units per every city, most units deployed defensively along our "CDG frontline", reserves kept behind the line, covering the rear against surprise seaborne invasions at the same time). Once we decide our growth phase is over and the date of the attack set, our economy shall focus on a massive military buildup, aiming at assembling a force as strong and numerous as possible to be ready at the outbreak of the war.
On the diplomatic front, our goal shall be to ensure CDG does not attack us before we want them to, leaving us free to accomplish our growth/economic goals first. Ideally, we shall lull them into believing our only plan is to peacefully build and "flourish" in the God forgotten piece of crappy land we‘re given for starters. We shall do our best to prevent our international reputation suffering too much once we attack and we shall do our best to ensure we will be fighting just one enemy with no allies. This shall be achieved through being reliable and easy to deal with trading partners for all the teams that are not targets of The First War.
3. Winning through economic superiority
Our starting location did/does not allow for a quick, early military buildup, followed by a surprise rush. In addition, our early UU is less than optimal for winning wars - it's better suited for not losing wars. Thus, our only reasonable choice is to win the war by overwhelming military superiority, achieved through the economic superiority. We shall outnumber our enemy to such an extent that they will be unable to hold their ground. Technical superiority would be welcome, but should not be necessary. If the initial invasion fails to knock the enemy down immediately, we shall resort to the war of attrition, first crippling the economy of our enemy by massive pillaging and then wearing its thinning military down.
4. Strong war-oriented economy first, War next
Empire extent goal
Considering the relative advantage of our starting location (compared to that of CDG) and our double-granary-based expansion potential, we shall be able to build a sizeable empire faster than our enemy. This empire shall be of clearly defined extent, filling most or all of the landmass NE of the diagonal NW-SE line right in the middle between Apolyton and Elucidium) - the line also known as the 6-tile "permanent" settlement line. Our expansion shall be aimed at securing strategic resources first (iron city, horse city), establishing a firm border against CDG next, and grabbing/back-filling all the remaining land on our side of the line last.
Jungle clearing
As most of our potential territory NE of the line is jungle, we shall clear that jungle to make the best use of the land - without the jungle being cleared and resulting grassland improved, our cities would be next to useless. In order to clear the vast jungle, we shall build a strong workforce of workers dedicated to this task.
Production priorities
Until we start building up for The First War, we shall balance our production between military units ensuring a reasonable level of safety against surprise enemy attacks (roughly 2 military units per every city of ours), settlers ensuring our empire growth, and workers ensuring timely clearing of the jungle (roughly two workers per every city) – in this order. As a special priority, we shall build at least one galley that will start searching for other teams beyond those we already have a contact with.
As The First War shall be fought no later than with the arrival of Knights (see later on), we shall assume our cities will not grow beyond pop 6 (no aqueducts), often not even beyond pop 4 (no temples at 0% lux under Republic). Thus, our spacing shall be generally quite tight (3-tile, or city-tile-tile-city) and we shall build no city improvements, but barracks and granaries - other improvements to be built only in rare, well defined cases, in cities intended to become high(er)-pop production powerhouses.
Our mantra: Efficiency
As mentioned before, our starting location is mediocre at best... to keep our hope of eventually winning the game, we will have to squeeze every single food, shield, and commerce out of the land we have at our disposal. Thus, we shall focus on tight management of all our resources – workers, labourers, population, city improvements, and military. Every single worker action, every single city improvement shall have its reason and justification.
Science/Research
The First War will trigger our GA. In order to not waste it, we shall be under Republic by that time, so our primary research goal is to gain the knowledge of The Republic and successfully switch our government to it prior to attacking our enemy. Other than that, we shall adapt our research strategy considering the tentative timing of The First War (for an earlier, Swordsmen-based war, we shall aim for 0% research and hoarding upgrade gold once under Republic... for a later, Knight-based war, we shall aim for getting to Chivalry ASAP).
5. Timing
Ideally, we would attack our enemy at a moment when they could defend with D=2 units only (spears+immos), while we would be attacking with A=4 units (knights), supported by D=3 Mercs.
As that is unlikely to actually happen, requiring us to gain a big tech lead on CDG, we shall attack our enemy as soon as we (mostly) finish our growth phase and our economy and military power is able to overwhelm theirs. We shall make sure that will happen no later than with the discovery of Chivalry & introduction of the Knights, certainly before D=4 Musketmen defenders appear on the stage.
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:28
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I am of the opinion that we need to strike CDG before the onset of the Medieval Age.
Right now our economic advantage is overwhelming.
This will be the case for quite some time. We can easily outproduce them now, and that ability will only grow exponentially over the course of 30 turns. Right now they have 3 cities. Two of which are sub-par, and a fourth city will be entirely useless. All of our cities will have some potential, especially when our Workers get some jungle down. It will be a very very long time (read: Medieval Age) before they're able to make their other cities into productive unit factories. Between now and then we will have a massive economic advantage, which we must take advantage of.
Currently, we're preparing for a mass Warrior-to-Swordsman upgrade.
We have a large amount of Warriors lying around, and a fairly large amount of gold which could be increased a great deal. This gives us the ability to greatly increase the firepower of our army in a short amount of time, as long as we have some gold. Meanwhile, CDG does not have much of an economy to build up commerce with. Their capital can get up to 10 SPT and 10 GPT, but that's about all they have. Most of their cities are connected to iron, so they can't build up Warriors now anyways.
Also, the unit VS unit matchups lend themselves towards an early war as well.
3 attack Swordsmen have more of an advantage over 2 defense Spearmen than 4 attack Med Inf./Knights over 3 defense Pikemen. Thus, our offensive advantage lies sooner. Our NMs have an attack of 2 and a defense of 3. This means getting Feudalism and Pikemen doesn't help us. However, it does help them. Thus, the defensive advantage lies with attacking earlier as well, since our defensive ability will not go up, but theirs will.
Between now and then, our offensive advantage over their units diminishes some, and our defensive advantage is negated.
We can build up as many Warriors as we please, and all it will take to form them into a massive army is money. If we pull back research, then we can easily produce enough Warriors to overwhelm them, without the drawback of them becoming stronger or having our unit advantage reduced/eliminated.
Some people will not be fond of an despotic GA, but I ask them this: what is the difference between a despotic GA and a new-age government GA? More shields, more commerce. We would be at war either way, which just means we would be able to produce more Swords/Knights/NMs and more gold to upgrade. We aren't going to be using our GA to go into a mass-temple building frenzy, or building a bunch of marketplaces. We'd be using it to build units, just like we'll be using it to build units now. I believe that our economic advantage now allows us to build more units relative to them than us under Republic with a GA and them with a GA with cleared jungle and improved terrain.
30-40 turns. The timing is right. We can crush them.
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Adrian Hon
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Living in Perplex City
Nov 2001
time: 05:28
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In the new atmosphere of making our voices heard, I'd like to chime in and say that Trip's assessment is very persuasive.
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Fried-Psitalon
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Not just another pretty face.
Dec 2002
time: 00:28
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After some consideration, I think Trip may be right, but I have some reccomendations/reservations.
Half measures:
If we're going to do this, let's drop research to 10 percent NOW. We won't lose our current research on mapmaking, but we won't waste much money on it. If we're going to make this attack before they get a chance to build up, any time wasted is pointless and only helps them. We can reasonably expect they'll build one more settler - the one they're roading for at Goldville. That means for at least a little while longer, they won't have significant military production. Research down, production up now. We'll have time to explore west later, and we can use our new coastal town, compliments of CDG, to transfer back and forth between the two seas.
Tech loss: We need to plan for acquisition of the lost technologies we were going to trade.... or are we going to be so evil and savage as to time our attack immediately after the tech trade takes place?
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Dominae
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quote:
Originally posted by Trip
Right now our economic advantage is overwhelming.
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Our economic advantage is potentially overwhelming. We have no Barracks, one of our cities is still building a Granary. In units we are comparable to CDG. When you invest, you have to wait for it to pay off before spending your returns.
quote:
We can easily outproduce them now, and that ability will only grow exponentially over the course of 30 turns.
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If we stop focusing on economy, our potential to grow will not increase exponentially.
quote:
Between now and then we will have a massive economic advantage, which we must take advantage of.
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Like I said, our "massive economic advantage" is not here yet. Not by a long shot.
quote:
Currently, we're preparing for a mass Warrior-to-Swordsman upgrade.
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Huh?! Whoever said this? What we're doing is planning to upgrade Warriors to Swordsmen (in case CDG attacks) instead of building Swordsmen outright. That's a far cry from "mass Swordsmen upgrade". Which brings up the next point:
quote:
We have a large amount of Warriors lying around, and a fairly large amount of gold which could be increased a great deal. This gives us the ability to greatly increase the firepower of our army in a short amount of time, as long as we have some gold.
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First, remember that we still need to defend our cities, Workers and Settlers from Barbs, thus some of our Warriors must be left behind (once we connect our Iron for upgrades, bye-bye Warrior production unless we then cut our Iron).
Second, if we want to uprade a majority of our Warriors in a reasonable timeframe, we would have to cut all our research (as F-P points out). That is a major cost. It will prevent us from going through with our already agree-upon trade deals, and will leave us behind compared to GCA and CFC (not to mention most other teams).
Third, a good reason to delay would be to petition for funds from another team. CFC would probably not give us any money right now. Later, when the geo-political situation is clearer, we'll be in a better position to get some support for our war.
quote:
Meanwhile, CDG does not have much of an economy to build up commerce with. Their capital can get up to 10 SPT and 10 GPT, but that's about all they have. Most of their cities are connected to iron, so they can't build up Warriors now anyways.
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This further benefits us in the long run. If they want to build up their Immortals from scratch, fine. Once our economy really kicks in, our Swordsmen alone will outnumber their Immortals 2 to 1.
quote:
3 attack Swordsmen have more of an advantage over 2 defense Spearmen than 4 attack Med Inf./Knights over 3 defense Pikemen. Thus, our offensive advantage lies sooner. Our NMs have an attack of 2 and a defense of 3. This means getting Feudalism and Pikemen doesn't help us. However, it does help them.
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This is all true. My point is that an economic advantage always trumps a unit advantage (see Gathering Storm and Vox). Our economy is not ready yet for "overwhelming force".
quote:
Some people will not be fond of an despotic GA, but I ask them this: what is the difference between a despotic GA and a new-age government GA? More shields, more commerce. We would be at war either way, which just means we would be able to produce more Swords/Knights/NMs and more gold to upgrade. We aren't going to be using our GA to go into a mass-temple building frenzy, or building a bunch of marketplaces. We'd be using it to build units, just like we'll be using it to build units now.
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You're not getting the main argument against despotic GAs: it's not what you're building that matters, it's how well the GA increases your production. With few small cities, our GA will be "wasted" on only a few tiles. The more we delay, the more cities and population we get, and therefore the better our GA becomes. Of course, our GA is only so good in relation to CDG's (since we'll trigger at about the same time). But, since we'll have a better economy than them later on (guaranteed), our GA will be better too.
quote:
30-40 turns. The timing is right. We can crush them.
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I disagree. What we would probably be able to do is weaken them, but without true overwhelming force we would be weakening ourselves too much too. And CFC and GCA would just laugh their arses off.
Right now, CDG wants to attack GCA, but knows that they would have to leave their butt open to us. So they're hesitating, and my guess is either that they'll call the whole thing off, or they'll try to get at GCA but stop when they see they do not have enough of an advantage. These scenarios benefit us immensely. While CDG is preparing (badly) for a war right now, we're consolidating our resources for a war later. And that's a winning scenario.
Dominae
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:28
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They key is the relation between CDG's economy and our own. By the time the Medieval Age arrives (say, 50 turns), CDG will have had the opportunity to place some more cities, clear some jungle and irrigate some plains. That will help their economy more than the difference between a republican and a despotic GA will help our own. Before they get that done, all they'll have is Elucidia, the two cities they have placed now, a covered chokepoint which produces a Spearman every 20 turns and a whole lot of jungle. Meanwhile, we'll have what we have now (which is probably superior to what they can have in 40 turns) in addition to a few new cities, a powerful city core, a lot of cleared jungle and the ability to destroy them.
It's all about timing. We can't simply say "oh, we'll build up for a while and when we have a lot of Knights we'll attack." We give away a potentially huge advantage if we do that. I would rather face CDG with 20 Swordsmen and 10 NMs against 10 Immortals, 5 Spearmen and one useful city in 40 turns than face them with 35 Med Infs. and 15 NMs against 20 Immortals, 15 Pikemen and a stable economy which can provide many more units in 80 turns.
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Dominae
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quote:
Originally posted by Trip
They key is the relation between CDG's economy and our own. By the time the Medieval Age arrives (say, 50 turns), CDG will have had the opportunity to place some more cities, clear some jungle and irrigate some plains. |
Of course. But we will have had the opportunity to do so much more. We have two Granaries. Our first few cities are better-positioned than theirs. We have land to expand into. Etc., etc. Our economic outlook is very good compared to theirs.
Let's say our current economic/military power is 5, and CDG's is 4. We therefore have an advantage of 20%. But our economic growth over 50 turns is proportional to (say) x^3, while theirs is x^2. Then in 50 turns, we're at 125 while they're at 64, for an economic advantage of of almost 50%!!!
We can jump on them now and be somewhat successful. We can jump on them later and totally blow them away. I prefer the latter.
Dominae
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:28
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I saw you put up that post before finishing mine, but I didn't feel like going back and updating it.
Dominae, the difference between us is when we think we have the most opportunity.
Tell me, do you think CDG is going through a consolidated plan right now to clear jungle and prepare sites for the future as we are? I don't think they are. But they will. They may be stupid, but they won't sit in the middle of the jungle with 8 cities and not clear any tiles. And eventually their efforts will start to pay off. At some point we will reach the maximum capability we can reach, but they will still be building up.
My estimate:
40 turns
Apolyton
10 cities, all size 2-5, all with some production capability thanks to our intense jungle clearing efforts. Some cities will have Barracks. We will have the capability to build a large number of units, along with having a strong standing army. Estimated potential army: 20 Swordsmen, 10 NMs.
Main focus: clearing jungle for productive city sites, building up an army.
CDG
7 cities, all but two in the jungle. Very little jungle cleared, meaning only 3 or so cities will have any production. Iron hooked up, so a small number of Immortals. Maybe iron cut off to prepare for more upgrading. Estimated army: 10 Immortals, 5-8 Spearmen with very little capability to expand this in a short amount of time.
Main focus: building units, placing cities in unproductive locales.
80 turns
Apolyton
16 cities, varying in size, some up to size 6 (very few above since we have almost no cities with fresh water). Production very powerful, as is the economy. Ability to produce an army of great size and power in 12 turns or so. Estimated potential army: 30 Med Infs/Knights, 15 NMs.
Main focus: "Optimization," building up an army
CDG
12 cities, also varying in size. More jungle cleared and tiles improved to make many of these productive. More effective road network, including the capability of their capital to get up to a great size and 15 or 20 SPT. Estimated army: 18 Immortals, 15 Pikemen with the capability to build more if necessary.
Main focus: Finally making those city sites productive
Multiply the numbers by a certain factor depending on how you feel. We/they could have twice as many cities, but the conclusions are the same.
Our power peaks when our cities reach size 6. We will not have aquducts ready to get our cities up above that size without sacrificing a great deal of shields which could be spent on units. However, CDG will spend the time between turn 40 and turn 80 clearing jungle and making more productive tiles for their city. We will peak out during that time. They will continue growing. We will near our max potential near or soon after turn 40. They will reach theirs at turn 80 when we're preparing to strike. That is why I feel we need to strike sooner.
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Dominae
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Trip, you estimates for both 40 and 80 turns are way off. Although it is difficult to come up with good numbers, I can safely say that yours are "bad". As I've said before, please use realistic predictions when making proposals.
I'm not belligerent here. I think the burden of proof is on you to show us why your numbers are realistic.
For myself, I'm confident in saying that the two Granaries alone will be enough to keep us well ahead of CDG, economically. I'm not patting myself on the back, it's just something I feel is true based on my experience with Civ3 (and perfect knowledge of CDG's lands).
Dominae
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vondrack
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Praha, Czech Republic
Jan 2002
time: 06:28
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OK, as I see no numbers and no detailed plans here, mostly just "estimates" and "counterestimates", I would respectfully ask for more members to speak their minds up (Trip & Dom - I believe you have said enough, unless you plan to throw in some non-estimated figures...  ).
The plan proposed by the Consuls is (very simply said) aimed at a war shortly after switching to Republic, with the "peaceful" REX phase being finished or mostly finished first (for details, see the first post). Short, but massive military buildup under Republic, then attack - hopefully before CDG gets to Feudalism/Pikes, hopefully after CDG attacks GCA. Republican GA with a fairly developed empire filling most of the land we have at our disposal now.
The plan proposed by Trip is basically to start the military buildup RIGHT NOW and attack in about 40 turns. means despotic GA with a somewhat smaller empire.
If there are more members leaning towards his plan, fine, let's hold a quick poll and based upon the result, possibly rewrite the AltSp from scratch. If not, I would respectfully ask to steer the debate towards discussing the AltSp draft instead of arguing about a plan which is pretty much different.
Also, I would like to hear from the MoI - what are our current build queue plans? How many military units, how many settlers, how many workers in 40 turns?
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Dominae
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Let's say the 6-tile border holds. Here are the reasons why I think we'll be way ahead of CDG in 80 turns (i.e. they will not "catch up" to us economically):
1. More land. No matter how you look at it, we'll have more cities than CDG. They're hemmed in to the South, they cannot go very far to the North, and North-West is not exactly prime realestate. I estimate they'll max out at around 8 productive cities. We, on the other hand, will have 11 productive cities if we continue to grow at the same rate, and that's not even counting all the land to our South-East!
2. Willingness to use tight city-spacing. This is not much of an argument, because CDG might just decided to backfill later. But assuming they continue to play as badly as they've being playing since we met them, they will not make the best use of the land around their capital. We will.
3. Two Granaries. We will always have the population advantage. Population translates into anything you want, from tiles improved faster to more military units. This effect will still be very much present in 80 turns, since it is exponential, not linear.
4. We both have a comparable amound of Jungle to cut down. Our Granaries help us do this; their lack of Granaries does not.
5. Two Luxuries. Surely they're sending off their Settler to claim the Incense close to the isthmus. But they will not have it hooked up quite as fast as we will our Dyes. And if they do just build Roads through the Jungle, they'll be wasting valuable Worker-turns, where we have an advantage due to our Granaries.
6. Commercial trait. Their second ring will suffer from Corruption, ours will not (it's not that simple, but you get the idea). If you think Commercial is only a later-game trait, you're dead wrong.
I'm sure there's more, but they're little things. The point is that all these things give us just as much of an advantage in 80 turns as they do in 40. CDG will not catch up to us economically if we stay at peace. Ever (unless something weird happens, like they conquer GCA). So your argument that we have "more of an advantage now" is simply false. Sure, CDG will grow. Apolyton will grow better. And that translates directly into a better war for us later on.
Dominae
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BigFree
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Acampo, CA
Oct 1999
time: 21:28
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I agree with Domiae for the most part.
Number's Game
To come up with hard numbers on what CGD's producion and research capabilities are is not feasible. I feel it is obvious though that we have an approximate 50%-75% advantage in both areas right now. This advantage will continue to grow in our favor do to the land that CDG has available to them and the fact that they have no granery and then the land we have avaiable along with the fact that we have 2 graneries means that we will continue to hold and increase that advantage.
This means that CDG cannot hope to keep up with us in terms of Technology or number of units built or city improvements. I believe that these differences between our two Civs will grow as time marches on.
CDG and GCA relations
CDG would be the complete fool if they did not use their UU in the Ancient age. They would be just slightly less foolish to attack us during that time also due to our NM's. CFC ould be a target, but considering how far away they are, how likely is that?
Once you come to the conclusion that CDG has to attack someone in the Ancient Age in orde to ensure their later survival, you will see that the best choice that CDG has is to attack GCA.
- GCA is close to them and thus has the more valuable land.
- Once GCA reaches Chivalry, CDG 'knows' that GCA will come calling with "Olephants" Biggie here
- What a better ruse or battle plan (depends on how you see it) than to pretend to 'befriend' a Civ then strike when you draw them near.
- CFC is further away and their land is worthless to CDG.
- APO is further away and our land is next to worthless at this stage. APO's NM's present a next to impossible task. Add that to that fact that APO can produce twice as many units as CDG.
The "So What's"
Even if CDG didn't attack GCA,
Even if CDG didn't attack CFC,
Even if CDG attacks APO,
APO will still have the advantage mentioned earlier. APO will still out produce CDG by a long ways.
The Time Line
Imagine APO having just come out of Anarchy into a Republic; approximately 70 turns from now. We are now going to research Feudalism. We may have a possible trade of CoL and/or Philosophy and Republic to CFC for Currency and Construction.
CDG is now working on Contruction or Currency at a 40 turn pace cause they are either in the middle of a war with GCA in which CDG is building Warriors to upgrade to Immortals. Or CDG's land sucks so much that them reasearching at anything higher than the minimum is a waste of gold since at 100% they will reach Construction at over 30 turns.
Ok that was a little bit of presuming on my part. But when I tell you that CDG will be at the very least, 25 turns from achieving Feudalism, it is based on the fact that they have no land/cities that could do otherwise.
Conclusion
The fact of the matter is that CDG has to attack someone to ensure their survival. GCA is the most likely target. That being said, it would be nice if it happened that way; and I'm 99% sure it will. But, APO still has the advantage by two fold over CDG during the time period in which APO has just switched to Republic and CDG lacks Feudalism.
The time for us to attack is during this period. It preserves our GA until we can make good use of it; which will be to build more NM's to hold the territory against GCA. GCA will be getting their UU soon after this conflict, so we need to be prepared to protect the land we just annexed from CDG. A GA will very much help us do this if we are in a Republic during this period.
So, to put it simply: We don't have to count on CDG attacking GCA in order for this plan to be executed. We should wait till this time because we will be more prepared and CDG will be less. If we attack before republic we could possibly win, but do we hold the land against GCA later? If we attack before republic do we lose out oo much from a Despotic GA?
We attack after Republic but before CDG gets Feudalism.
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Adrian Hon
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Living in Perplex City
Nov 2001
time: 05:28
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Bigfree raises an interesting point - after defeating CDG, can we hold our land against an opportunistic invasion by GCA? The time will be just right for them to attack, what with their elephants and our presumably weakened state after the war.
Edit: This is presuming that CDG don't attack GCA earlier on, which would be the most realistic and desirable situation. But we still have to plan for contingencies. Indeed, in general we have to make sure that we'll still be able to defend ourselves after our war - maybe even CFC will come looking for a fight.
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20-05-2003 04:55
, this one will be much shorter. 
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