21-05-2003 19:31									#31
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I would like to point out that any test put forward to show that we should attack CDG now instead of later because we have a better advantage now needs to run a sim of CDG's civ as well. Although nye's test gives us a good idea of our capabilities, it tells us nothing of our capabilities relative to CDG's (which is important, given the current debate).

By the way, great job nye and vondrack in taking a more active role as Consuls.


Dominae

	21-05-2003 20:38									#32
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither This is what I came up with. I didn't do it perfectly, I am sure E_T, BFW, and Dom can do it better

I'm not sure. He's currently guarding the isthmus towards CFC now, but I'll ask him next time I see him.



BFM

	21-05-2003 21:10									#33
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Here are the times and forces built...

Reviewing your numbers:

• Where do those 9 settlers in 10AD come from?
  
• What happened to the Galley? Did it sink?
  
• 19 Workers? Isn't that a bit over-done?
  
• How did you settle cities #7 and #10? Did the settlers move and build all during the same turn?
  

	21-05-2003 21:22									#34
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quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster 19 Workers? Isn't that a bit over-done?

I would say no.


Dominae

	21-05-2003 21:43									#35
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quote: Originally posted by Dominae The problem with this plan is that it has no focus. You're just going to ask for more and more units, delay our research to get a bunch of Gold for upgrades, and call for strikes whenever you feel like it (like the one you just proposed in another thread, which was refused). With more focus on what we want to do, we'll do it better. If the team were to vote to attack CDG ASAP, we would do it (and I would support it...eventually). If the team wants to stay with the "build up for now" plan, we'll do that better. Preparing for war as though we were going to war in the next 40 turns will only hamper our overall effectiveness. Adequate defense I'm fine with; enough troops to mount an offensive at the MoW's whim, I'm not. Trip, please understand I'm being hard on you because I disagree with you on this, and for no other reason. Seriously.

Apparently you didn't read the message I put up right after that post.

Ignoring the status of CDG is a bad idea. We can "oooo" and "ahhhh" all we want at sims, but unless we know where CDG is, then all the effort is moot.

	21-05-2003 21:47									#36
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quote: Originally posted by vondrack Well, well, well... After reading everything posted since I went to bed, I feel like we are getting more participation and more debate, here, right? Great! AltSp seems to work, at least in a way... Now, I have seen a couple of fine posts here and there, but I am going to pick one and give big to nye for his sim. Now, gentlemen - THAT is how we will move with our plans. And I am valuing his simulation not only because his resulting timing is close to the 60-65 turns I mentioned earlier in this thread (I'm claiming no credits - it was just an educated estimate of mine, nye's giving a SOLID PROOF). I am valuing his effort so much because he's actually been the only one taking the time to TEST the damn thing (E_T, I know you are working on that, too - just your results have not been published yet). Trip, if you want to convince me your plan/approach is more viable and gives us better chances, do a sim, too. PLEASE. Show me your screenshot at Turn T+40 (or whenever you'd consider it sound to attack). Until then, I am not going to argue any more - everything that can be thrown in without any solid evidence has already been thrown in. Repeating it over and over gets us nowhere.

Again, I think you're focusing too much on "us but who cares about them." If CDG has Pikes then and a comparable empire, so what? People saying "oh CDG is worthless they'll never accomplish anything" or getting into a mindset of how CDG will act and react are fooling themselves. We all thought CDG was bluffing when they said they were researching Alphabet. But in the end, they did research it, for whatever reason.

My plan depends on what CDG accomplishes. At the current rate, our economic growth is very impressive. What about CDG? I can't and won't support any plan until I see where people see CDG at that point.

	21-05-2003 21:55									#37
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quote: Originally posted by Trip My plan depends on what CDG accomplishes. At the current rate, our economic growth is very impressive. What about CDG? I can't and won't support any plan until I see where people see CDG at that point.

So, like I said before, the burden of proof is on you to demonstrate that your fears of CDG's power are warranted. If you can run a scenario that explicitly shows that in 40 turns is the best time to strike them (i.e. we start mobilizing now), we'll be getting somewhere. Your current plan "depends on what CDG accomplishes", sure. But, because of this dependence, in the absence of knowledge of what CDG could really do, your plan is not a plan at all.


Dominae

	21-05-2003 22:06									#38
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And so it shall be done.

	22-05-2003 01:09									#39
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quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster I'm not sure. He's currently guarding the isthmus towards CFC now, but I'll ask him next time I see him. BFM

Oops, typo.

quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster Reviewing your numbers: Where do those 9 settlers in 10AD come from? What happened to the Galley? Did it sink? 19 Workers? Isn't that a bit over-done? How did you settle cities #7 and #10? Did the settlers move and build all during the same turn?

9 settlers in 10ad? Ditto on the typo. Fixed now. 0 settlers.

The galley did go down to about the 5th barb galley attack.

Number of workers? Not really. That's 2 per jungle city plus 3 (counting Mingapulco and Banatopia). That allows faster clearing. In the shot you don't see 9 pairs because some of them are in 3's and some are on the mountain 4 of City3 (having a road on that tile may be important).

I did not road any city target sites. All settlers had to spend a turn or part of a turn in the destination tiles.

	22-05-2003 01:16									#40
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nye, where's the scenario? So other people can test it out too?

	22-05-2003 01:48									#41
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Okay kids.

I'd like you to meet CDG 10 AD.



All Ancient Age techs researched and switch to Monarchy (and probably Medieval Age) since 270 BC.

22 Immortals, 12 Spearmen, 9 Workers and 3 Warriors.

Their cities will soon reach size 6. The jungle, for all intents and purposes, is gone. The fringe jungle tiles which still exist will all be gone within 15 turns.

Their army can grow exponentially after this point, and, as you can see, within 10 more turns they can have another 10+ Immortals.

	22-05-2003 01:52									#42
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree nye, where's the scenario? So other people can test it out too?

Will post it when I get home.

	22-05-2003 01:58									#43
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Trip, does that have them sending the current settler to the choke point?

	22-05-2003 02:00									#44
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What did you start with Trip? Where's the scenario? How did you decide what to start with?

	22-05-2003 02:04									#45
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Trip, could you provide some details as to how you set up the scenario? Better, could I borrow your scenario?

It sure is an eye-opener, but something makes me feel it is wrong somehow. As I've argued before, I cannot see how they could rival us economically. Maybe I'll just have to run tests of my own (sigh...).

Oh, and your City3 is questionable, given the border agreement. At the very least it shows us that we need to put a city on those Dyes (across from the Mountain) before they get there.

Edit: Another thing. Although you used some pretty good 3-spacing, there is no indication that CDG will do the same. Your City2 is right on top of a tile that CDG has already put a Road on, indicating that they probably do not plan to settle right there. Still, they could switch to some good city placement any time, so your testing this worst-case (as you did) is not such a big deal.


Dominae

	22-05-2003 02:09									#46
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I want to make a combined scenario where CDG and APO reside on the same map. You could play the game in debug mode so that you can control both civs or even in the HotSeat mode.

	22-05-2003 02:13									#47
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That would be great, BigFree!

Techs will remain a difficult thing to test for. I suggest all testers attempt to record Beakers accumulated instead of techs, so that we can compare numerical values. This will give us a better picture of what's going on, taking trades and such into consideration.


Dominae

	22-05-2003 02:19									#48
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I assure you, it's correct. I've played it twice since noon earlier today and got the same results from both games.

Note, CDG will have greater potential than what I had in the scenario. For my game I had all progress on units, tile improvements and research eliminated. They will have a head start on me in that area. Also, if there's any tile improvements which they've completed since the last time we uncovered their fog, then they have the advantage there also.

Start Scenario (1600 BC)
850 BC
590 BC
330 BC
10 AD

If I had to place bets on who would win if Apolyton attacked CDG in 10 AD based upon my own and NYE's sims, then I would put money on CDG.

If anyone has any ideas on how to easily defeat 22 Immortals + possibly 12 Pikemen, let me know.

[Edit]Free techs were given to CDG under the assumption that they would be able to trade for them. All the free techs do is allow them to get closer to Feudalism, which I didn't even account for.

Also, remove the 2 Warriors in the other two CDG cities at the start of the scenario. I disbanded them at the beginning because it seemed like too many.[/Edit]

Last edited by Trip on 22-05-2003 at 03:08

	22-05-2003 02:25									#49
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Looks worth considering. Trip, can you include a table similar to the one nye posted? Showing tech discoveries and such... test scenario would also be great.

BTW... what did they get Monarchy for? I know GCA is eager to help their neighbour to flourish, but still... I'd think CDG should be able to offer something.

How much money they have to upgrade their spears to pikes? How many barracks? Where? How long before they have Feudalism?

EDIT: crosspost

	22-05-2003 03:03									#50
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CDG

code:
turn year    research City Sett Work Warr Arch Sprm Immt Hors Gall
 16  1200    Math in 6   4    0    5    7    0    4    3    0    0
 20  1100    Math in 2   4    0    8    7    0    5    3    0    0
 24  1000    Phil in 12  4    0    8    4    0    5    6    0    0
 28   900        in 06   4    0    8    4    0    7    7    0    0
 32   800        in 02   4    1    9    4    0    7    7    0    0   
 36   710    Cur in 21   5    0   11    4    0    7    7    0    0
 41   610        in 33   5    0   12    4    0    7    8    0    0
 46   510        in 12   7    0   12    3    0    9    9    0    0
 51   410        in 07   7    0   13    3    0   10   11    0    0
 56   310        in 02   8    1   14    3    0   12   12    0    0
 61   210         -      9    0   13    3    0   12   12    0    0
 66   110bc       -      9    0   12    3    0   12   14    0    0
 72    10ad       -      10   0    9    3    0   12   22    0    0
 80    :P         -      10   0    8    3    0   14   31    0    0

code:
turn year    research City Sett Work Warr Arch Merc Swrd Hors Gall
 16  1200    HBR in 1   6    0    7    7    1    4    2    0    0
 20  1100    Phi in 5   7    0    8    6    1    4    4    0    0
 24  1000   CoL in 11   7    1    9    6    1    5    5    0    0
 28   900       in 05   8    0    9    6    1    6    5    0    1
 32   800       in 01   8    1   11    6    1    7    6    0    1   
 36   710   Rep in 22   9    0   12    5    1    8    8    1    1
 41   610       in 15  10    0   13    4    1   10    9    1    1
 46   510       in 09  10    2   13    4    1   10   11    3    1
 51   410       in 04  12    0   14    4    1   12   12    4    1
 56   310     Anarchy  12    0   15    4    1   12   13    5    1
 61   210   Mat in 03  12    0   16    4    1   12   14    5    0
 66   110bc Cur in 38  12    0   19    4    1   13   16    5    0
 72    10ad     in 20  12    0   18    4    1   13   19    8    0

	22-05-2003 03:18									#51
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Trip, you say that CDG will have Math in 6 turns starting at 1600. When I open the Sim it shows Math in 32 turns with a -3 in total income. How do they get it in 6 turns?

Why did you give CDG Mysticism, Polythesim, Monarchy, CoL and HBR? They will get only MM from us and posssibly Mysticism and Polytheism(16 points) from GCA for Math and Philosophy(14 points). Though GCA might not go for it.

APO will not trade CoL to CDG for anything. What would CDG have that we would need?

Why did you give CDG 17 units to start with?

	22-05-2003 03:21									#52
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Also, when did you put CDG into Monarchy? Where will they get that from? Trading Currency for it? Yeah, right!

I'm sorry Trip, you have some serious flaws in your sim.

	22-05-2003 03:24									#53
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree Trip, you say that CDG will have Math in 6 turns starting at 1600. When I open the Sim it shows Math in 32 turns with a -3 in total income. How do they get it in 6 turns?

1200. Not 1600. Please read correctly before striking down my sim.

quote: Why did you give CDG Mysticism, Polythesim, Monarchy, CoL and HBR? They will get only MM from us and posssibly Mysticism and Polytheism(16 points) from GCA for Math and Philosophy(14 points). Though GCA might not go for it.

There's still CFC and CDG could work out a deal for Monarchy with GCA involving Currency (if they're "working together" as they claim).

quote: APO will not trade CoL to CDG for anything. What would CDG have that we would need?

I was unaware that you were the one solely in charge of our foreign policy.

quote: Why did you give CDG 17 units to start with?

15 units after you disband the 2 I've pointed out. I have evidence for that number in the other thread.

	22-05-2003 03:26									#54
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree Also, when did you put CDG into Monarchy? Where will they get that from? Trading Currency for it? Yeah, right!

Possibly. In any case, by turn 80 it's not significant because the advantages gained from Monarchy for turns 65-80 are balanced out by the 5 turns of anarchy gained back by staying in Despotism.

quote: I'm sorry Trip, you have some serious flaws in your sim.

Actually, I think you're just looking for reasons to want to believe CDG is weaker.

	22-05-2003 03:46									#55
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I will build my own sim, with APO and CDG present on the same map. I will use "reasonable" number's and play both Civ's at the same time in debug mode in a hot seat game.

	22-05-2003 04:10									#56
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Hmmm, after playing with the scenarios a bit, I tend to partially agree with BF that you beefed CDG too much up, Trip. But that may be the right thing to do, after all... Though I do not believe they'd be able to get all those techs...

Nevermind.

What I find quite encouraging is that even if I accept CDG's generous starting conditions in this scenario, I believe the sim actually shows there is little difference between turns 41 and 61, as far as relative power and production potential is concerned.

Strength:

Turn 41:

CDG - 8 immos, 7 spears (15 units)
APO - 9 swords, 10 mercs, 1 horse (20 units)

Turn 61:

CDG - 12 immos, 12 spears (24 units)
APO - 14 swords, 12 mercs, 5 horses (31 units)

20:15 is almost the same ratio as 31:24

Production potential:

CDG, turns 41-51: +3 immos, +3 spears
APO, turns 41-51: +3 swords, +2 mercs, +3 horses

CDG, turns 61-72: +10 immos
APO, turns 61-72: +5 swords, +1 merc, +3 horses (+9)

And this actually assumes that they would be able to continue improving their terrain and producing units not fighting on their soil, which would not be the case.

CDG will have many more improved tiles later on, which means it will be difficult to defend them all - our pillaging forces, consisting of horses+mercs+swords shall be able to gradually push them back into the dark times... a horse covered by 3 mercs and 2 swords will pillage one undefended tile every turn. CDG will have nothing to safely defend flat tiles with, as D=2 unit would be in great danger of being slain by our A=3 swords. Many of the lost Mercs would be avenged - CDG would lose immos left in the open to our sword counterattacks...

I may be just a little bit too tired today, but I do not see this sim to be THE reason to start the war as early as in 40 turns.

And one humble request - let's STOP talking about war in 80 turns... I believe we have been able to determine that 60-65 turns is the right time frame for a Republic-based war.

	22-05-2003 04:13									#57
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quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster Other remarks/questions: What are the chances that CDG will have Pikemen in 10AD? Without them, 19 Swordsmen and 13 Merc will be hard to deal with. We might want to build the Galley sooner. We might want to build a 2nd Galley to sneak in a few troops behind their front lines. Do we need that many Horsemen? Maybe we can do with less (however... they make good pillagers). Did you irrigate diagonally through Mingapulco?! I did not know that this was possible. You mined on the other side of the proposed boundary. I don't know whether this will be a problem. Just pointing it out.

I have time now to answer these...

The debate on speed of tech advancement is ongoing. I tend to view the Republic-Feudalism window as being large, because...
1. GCA and us seem to be the only ones interested in going full speed ahead.
2. CDG as they are now are crippled.
3. CFC wants to duplicate research instead of buying.
4. Finally, both ourselves and GCA intend to research the governments before finishing the era.
Incidentally, Trip's map for CDG is impressive. I will wait to see if they settle as he has them (I give odds of 5 to 2 against). Oh, one other thing that we should note, gallies may increase the speed of progress if the continents are not isolated from each other.

Gallies are good. It is figuring where and when to slip them in.

Horsemen are of great utility in ancient warfare. Especially when they are vet against regulars; they often kill 2 defence units (55% attacking unfortified immortal in jungle; 50% attacking fortified in town without walls), and frequently retreat if they do not. They are excellent softening up units, not to mention giving a powerful mobile reserve in case we need to react to something unexpected.

Cities on plains, grass, and desert act as 'aquaducts' for irrigation. Do one side, then you can skip to the other side, the water flows through. This is not true for cities on hills.

You make an excellent point about the cultural boundaries of cities 3 and 4. The issue has been raised with the diplomats in the border thread. Thanks.

	22-05-2003 04:28									#58
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New sim ran from the point where CDG would have switched to Monarchy. Differences are:

By 10 AD, CDG ended up with 20 Immortals and 15 Spearmen (though you can basically change those Spearmen over to Immortals, since it looks like I didn't build units in the same way as I did before... oh well). They will finish 4 more Immortals the next turn. So 30 AD gives them 24 Immortals and 15 Spearmen. Thus, their industry is slightly more powerful, and their economy allowed them to finish Math + Philosophy + Currency + Construction by 10 AD.

	22-05-2003 05:16									#59
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I believe the techniques I used while playing CDG allowed me to get 95% efficiency out of their land and their cities. They would be hard-pressed to achieve the same level unless they followed a similar path and optimized each move they made. While unlikely, it is not impossible that they could do better than me.

I followed a path where right from the start of the scenario I began pumping out Workers. Workers non-stop. If you'll notice, I got CDG up to a similar number of Workers as Apolyton had in NYE's sim (~15 each). In addition to those Workers, I also sought to beef up my military, so you'll notice my CDG has a comparable number of units to NYE's Apolyton, even early on.

This led to very very high support costs (up to 8 GPT) for the first 40 or so turns before I started building new cities which could take advantage of the newly-chopped jungle and relieve the high support costs. Despite this along with the fact that I spent 10 or 15 turns at 10% research, under my direction CDG managed to research Mathematics, Philosophy, Currency and Construction during the course of the 72 turn simulation. Their economy has great potential as far as both research and overall commerce (which translates to support costs should they need it). We should not underestimate their potential economy.

As I mentioned, the first 40 turns I spent building units, especially Workers. Almost half of CDG's 9 total cities by turn 72 were produced after turn 40. Thus, the most pivotal part about their future is clearing jungle early... without that jungle being cleared, their potential industry and economy is very very limited. If the jungle falls at the same rate they expand, they can approach our power. If not, then in the future we will hold a massive advantage over them.

After running the simulation, I'm actually somewhat impressed by the potential that CDG holds. They can maintain an impressive number of units compared to us and build up a strong infrastructure. This even despite their horrible initial choices regarding which units and improvements to build (i.e. not Workers and Granaries) and poor city placement. If they follow a similar path to what I've done in this simulation, they could be a fierce enemy. If we attack near turn 40, we face a potential 15 or so front-line units (Immortals + Spearmen). If we attack near turn 60, we will face a potential 24 front-line units. Half of these would be Immortals, which hold a very powerful counter-offensive punch. With them CDG could maul our approaching stacks if they massed their Immortals in one mighty counter-attack.

Depending on how CDG plays the game, they could become a quite powerful foe. It is my belief that we should not underestimate their potential.

	22-05-2003 05:30									#60
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Here is the 10 AD save for the simulation without having changed from Despotism to Monarchy.

10 AD Remaining Under Despotism

Their unit quantities are actually greater, despite the fact that their Mfg. Goods is about 15% less. Those 5 turns not spent in Anarchy made a fair difference production-wise. Their commerce did not change between Despotism and Monarchy.