22-05-2003 06:21									#61
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Here is the 1600bc save for my sim

	22-05-2003 06:26									#62
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Good job, Trip. It is good that you have demonstrated that we should not diss our opponents before their capitol falls to our forces. If they settle as you have them, and they do not move south, then they will be a much more powerful force. It remains to be seen how they will settle, and where they move.

	22-05-2003 06:27									#63
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Now we come to the basic assumption that CDG will play their turns in a logical and consistent manner, and will clear/improve to the best of their ability. Given that at the moment they seem to have little interest in workers (no city's size has dropped by just one; we can easily monitor this) I think it is unlikely that they will go on a jungle-clearing spree.

We also have the significant wildcard of what GCA will do in relation to them, and what they might do in relation to CDG. I would think that along about the time CDG gets 10-15 Immortals, they'll head south.

This is just a random thought, but we could also simply ignore CDG altogether and keep expanding. It's a reasonably safe bet that GCA (since they appear to be playing logically and methodically from what we can tell) will come north when they get Elephants. Why don't WE take the land from THEM, rather than us fearing the same in reverse? We could plan a knight-based attack on that theory, much the same as we fear they would hit us with elephants when we came in and gobbled up CDG ourselves.

	22-05-2003 08:55									#64
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Trip, did you takes CGD's current Settler and move him all the way to the choke point and build that city first?

That is what CDG is doing.

Anyways, I've built my own combo sim. Bother CDG and APO are on it, you can play play both Civs in Hot Seat mode. I'll post results when I'm done. Then other's are welcome to play it.

	22-05-2003 09:00									#65
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I continue to be confused...

Aren't we best off planning as if war with CDG would be optimal in appr. 40 turns, as Trip suggests?

Aren;t the philosophical disagreers saying we wll be better off later, whether at 60 or 80 turns?

I do not see that much difference in near-term non-military production.

The wild card, of course, is CDG's actual performance in building, production, commerce, and research. As Trip has done, for the moment, I'd prefer we assume the worst (i.e., their best), and focus our efforts in maximizing our capabilities to gauge relative strength. In fact, shouldn't that awareness perhaps be our main political goal with GCA?

	22-05-2003 09:04									#66
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If we assume too much from CDG we will never feel like we can beat them.

We need need our predictions to be realistic; so we can plan a realistic war.

	22-05-2003 09:14									#67
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree Trip, did you takes CGD's current Settler and move him all the way to the choke point and build that city first? That is what CDG is doing.

Yes I did.

The major factor in their growth was my decision to build another Settler in Elucidium and Workers in their other cities as SOON as I started the scenario to account for the wasted Settler going to the chokepoint. It's not likely they'll do this, but it's a possibility.

	22-05-2003 09:55									#68
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I ran my own tests with NYE's scenario to see what Apolyton is capable of.

code:
turn year    research City Sett Work Warr Arch Merc Swrd Hors Gall GNP MFG Unit
 16  1200    CoL in 5   6    0    7    9    0    5    0    0    0   24  22   5
 29   975   Rep in 36   6    1   10   12    0    7    2    0    0   29  24   9
 32   900       in 33   7    1   10   12    0    8    2    0    0   33  23  10
 37   775       in 28   9    1   10    8    0    9    6    0    1   38  25  15
 36   690       in 24  10    1   10    5    0   10   10    0    1   47  30  20
 41   570       in 17  11    2   10    2    0   14   14    0    1   54  32  28
 47   490       in 11  12    1   13    2    0   15   15    0    1   60  35  30
 52   390       in 05  13    0   13    2    0   19   17    0    1   70  43  36
 57   290     Anarchy  13    0   13    2    0   22   21    0    1   73  48  43
 62   190   HBR in 01  13    0   13    2    0   24   22    0    1  133  54  46
 68   70    Con in 10  13    0   13    2    0   31   25    1    1  144  58  57
 72   10 AD     in 06  13    0   13    2    0   33   25    6    1  159  60  64

	22-05-2003 10:03									#69
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree If we assume too much from CDG we will never feel like we can beat them. We need need our predictions to be realistic; so we can plan a realistic war.

BF, was that a response to my post?

I'm not saying that at all... I'm trying to say that if you read ALL of the posts on this issue from the last several days, it seems people are looking at the trees and not the forest.

Without a formal internal declaration, for instance in the stated strategy, there seems to be a leaning towards war with CDG.

Well, fine. That said, the issue seems to be WHEN do we achieve optimal relative strength, and for what window of turn-time.

Heck, if anything, I'd say we are OVER-assuming that we will actually have tht relative strength... but assuming such to be true, it seems to me that the key issue is monitoring CDG, not modeling / assuming / guessing what they are going to do over 40 - 80 turns.

We can do our thing, but how do we best monitor CDG?

	22-05-2003 10:07									#70
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus We can do our thing, but how do we best monitor CDG?

Watch their settlements pop up. If they continue to be spread out and marginal, we are all good. If they begin to veer towards Trip's layout, we will have more problems.

	22-05-2003 10:09									#71
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I'm looking for more than that... I think it intel should be a HUGE priority for the FAM.

	22-05-2003 10:16									#72
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Very nice scientific spirit, Trip!

Although it feels weird getting all this out of the MoW, I was egging you on to do the sims, and you've given us all numbers to mull over.

Let's take a step back and look at things from a wider angle:

1. We have a defensive UU, CDG has an offensive UU. Their UU could give us some headaches on defense, however (since they'll always get a chance to attack us before we them). But our UU does very little on offense against them. There is an asymmetry there. All other things being equal (which they never are, but anyway), the UUs dictate that we should not be the aggressors.

2. We have more land to exploit than CDG. They will feel like they're being hemmed in pretty soon; we will not. Our Commercial trait lets us make a very efficient empire (not to mention our apparently better economic practices). CDG needs to strike to remain competitive. Do we? I'm thinking no, depending on how much land GCA and CFC have available.

3. We may have a very good opportunity for seriously injuring if not crippling CDG coming up soon. I'll grant that at this point. The questions we now have to ask are: 1) at what cost a war? and 2) can we do better by waiting? My opinion concering the first question is that we can seriously mess up CDG with some Merc. tactics, but we will have a hard time wiping them out entirely. All the while GCA is laughing, because they can just join in on the war anytime and grab some of the best land for themselves (they're adjacent to the best CDG lands, while we'll be conquering the worst). Concerning the second question, I believe the best way to fight CDG will be defensively. Notice that this is not just Dominae being a peacemonger/builder: I'll gladly wipe CDG off the planet. Yet we need not take the initiative in the war! If we can get them to attack us when we're good and ready, we should do extremely well. The defender is always at the advantage in Civ3. If we can defeat their offensive army, it should be a relatively simple matter to counter-attack and wipe them out.

4. There is still the matter of GCA to consider. Even if we have a chance to do some damage to CDG soon, why not let GCA do the deed for us? If CDG is going to attack GCA, an even better opportunity opens up, one which we would not be available if we were to initiate the hostilities. When the smoke clears and CDG is defeated, there is no more border agreement, and we suddenly have a bunch more land to expand into (subject to GCA's own new borders). One of the best tactics in SP is to let the AIs do the fighting for you. I'm hoping this will translate into this game. And even if CDG and GCA never fight, we should be fine, because we'll be defensively prepared (see point 3).


It's hard to not answer opportunity when it comes a-knockin'. But if we consider the wider picture, I believe we can do better by playing this slow, methodical and defensive. This is, after all, why we picked Carthage!


Dominae

	22-05-2003 10:16									#73
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There is very little we can get from a game vs other sites, Theseus. Everyone is very close mouthed.

	22-05-2003 10:24									#74
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I just looked at Trip's 10ad for CDG.

I really think we should compare apples to apples. 14 out 22 of those immortals are regulars, as are 11 of the 12 spear. Considering that regs lose 25% to 33% of their effectiveness vs vets...

I suspect the same is true of the 64 units he just racked up in the Poly sim.

His prioritisation of workers/settlers seems to add some kick though.

	22-05-2003 10:30									#75
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quote: Originally posted by Dominae It's hard to not answer opportunity when it comes a-knockin'. But if we consider the wider picture, I believe we can do better by playing this slow, methodical and defensive. This is, after all, why we picked Carthage!

That would be great if we had not drawn CDG next to us. These guys are going to cause trouble, they already have and show every prospect of continuing to do so.

The best MP tactic when dealing with a nearby 'problem' when you have the better layout of land, is to max your own capability soonest and strike before they can max theirs.

If they do not veer seriously towards Trips layout, they are up the creek. The way their roads are being laid out, I doubt they are going to veer towards a better lay out. 3 of the cities in Trip's sim will likely never see the light of a settler being built.

	22-05-2003 10:35									#76
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither There is very little we can get from a game vs other sites, Theseus. Everyone is very close mouthed.

??

I mean we should be actively using our FAM relations to get a constant pciture of CDG and their military.

	22-05-2003 10:39									#77
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nye, do you think CDG threatens us offensively, even after they've been given a chance to build up? I mean, them attacking and us defending.

I think my comments on our UUs gives the answer. We can beat them most efficiently by absorbing their punch, then launching a counter-blow.

Plus, getting your enemy to attack you on your terms (on terrain favorable to you, etc.) sounds a lot like Sun Tzu. Who here can question that authority?!?


Dominae

	22-05-2003 10:43									#78
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus ?? I mean we should be actively using our FAM relations to get a constant pciture of CDG and their military.

How? Are they going to tell us if we ask nicely? Sorry if I seem snide, that is not my intent. However, these guys don't tell us the time of day unless they feel they can gain an advantage in it, and then they are likely to switch the AM and PM.

	22-05-2003 10:52									#79
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quote: Originally posted by Dominae nye, do you think CDG threatens us offensively, even after they've been given a chance to build up? I mean, them attacking and us defending. I think my comments on our UUs gives the answer. We can beat them most efficiently by absorbing their punch, then launching a counter-blow. Plus, getting your enemy to attack you on your terms (on terrain favorable to you, etc.) sounds a lot like Sun Tzu. Who here can question that authority?!?

Napoleon would be a fairly good authority on war. I think he would question defence only. I'm quite sure of it in fact. When one has an advantage, it is time to take the battle to your enemy at a time and on ground of your choosing, not wait for your enemy to undo your advantage.

Also, we lack the room to win this game peacefully. At least 2 other civs have much better starts than us, and likely much better land. Waiting for what the fates deliver would not be the wisest course of action, IMO. Add CDGs land (or most of it) with our industrious workers, throw in a dash of luck down the road, and we might just have a chance to win this game.

Finally, CDG is the worst neighbour I could imagine just about. I do not see them getting better once they get on their feet. rather I think they will get worse, and be harder to rid ourselves of.

	22-05-2003 11:03									#80
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nye, I think you're misunderstanding me.

1. I definitely want something to happen between us and CDG at some point. We cannot win this game peacefully with the resources available to us (like you said). But something will happen: either CDG attacks GCA (or vice versa), or they attack us. In either case our "waiting" is advantageous. I know I sound condescending when I say this, but patience is the virtue we need the most here.

2. The offensive advantage we have by striking "now" is small compared to the defensive advantage we'll have when CDG strikes us. Or, the offensive advantage we have by striking "now" is small compared to the offensive advantage we'll have when CDG and GCA go to war.

3. I realise they're placing cities badly, which leaves them open to attack in the short-term. But I still think a campaign against them is going to be costlier than we really want to afford (they'll pop rush, we'll waste our GA, GCA will benefit too much, etc.).


Could we somehow tell GCA very indirectly that CDG is at its weakest right now? That might convince them to attack first (saying that "we're not at all ready for battle"), ultimately to our benefit.


Dominae


P.S: Sun Tzu would have kicked Napoleon's butt.

	22-05-2003 11:16									#81
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Well, now you are starting a more fundamental debate, Dom. Perhaps a thread on war or building would be the place to start.

Telling GCA anything about CDG seems to be Russian roulette to me. We still do not know what their stances are vis-a-vis one another. I am adverse to trying any sort of Machavellian politics in this game simply because we know so little about the other teams, and are purely guessing about reactions. I think we are best to stealth CDG. Assemble the infrastructure and cities, then kick out an innordiante amount of units in a short period of time, and go. This assumes that they will continue to build unwisely, and gives us the benefit of escape dates if the team decides they are desired. My own guess though is that we continue to pinball between strong and average vs CDG once the 2 barracks are complete and a few swords are upgraded. We must guard against too seriously outdistancing them too soon, ironically.

PS. Napoleon did. Those who can't do, teach. Those who can't teach, write books. Sun Tzu wrote books.

	22-05-2003 11:18									#82
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I just looked at Trip's 10ad for CDG. I really think we should compare apples to apples. 14 out 22 of those immortals are regulars, as are 11 of the 12 spear. Considering that regs lose 25% to 33% of their effectiveness vs vets... I suspect the same is true of the 64 units he just racked up in the Poly sim. His prioritisation of workers/settlers seems to add some kick though.

If we wish to crush them under the weight of our industry and our numbers, then that is upon what me must rely... numbers. Building 40 shield Barracks will only reduce our numbers... our advantage.

	22-05-2003 12:15									#83
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Is there anyway we can set this up to the most current knowledge of the moment (tech wise, etc? You probably have it pretty close already) and then design this scenario for multiplayer? It might be interesting to try some different strategies to bang around with various people....

Document it, see what works against us/for us and see how we can plan for what works against us...?

	22-05-2003 12:39									#84
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quote: Originally posted by Trip If we wish to crush them under the weight of our industry and our numbers, then that is upon what me must rely... numbers. Building 40 shield Barracks will only reduce our numbers... our advantage.

Are 4 regs worth 3 vets?

How about when you throw in the gold to maintain them over 50 turns?

	22-05-2003 13:03									#85
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However, it is occurring to me that a mix of vets and regs might be quite beneficial, although I never do that in SP.

2 or 3 vets with 1 reg along has nearly the same punch and the reg can pick off cripples. In the right mix it could be quite effective...

Now, what is that mix? I would say that when a city gets to 5 or 6 shields, it should build a barracks. That way, the next 20 turns of production (4 or 5 units) get the benefit of being vet, while boosting our numbers while the smaller cities grow.

Consider also that when we hit the GA, the unit production increases by about 50% (city 5 could do 2 turn swords/horse/mercs) and we will want barracks in all major cities by D-Day.

	22-05-2003 15:59									#86
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither PS. Napoleon did. Those who can't do, teach. Those who can't teach, write books. Sun Tzu wrote books.

Watch it, bud. Some of us teach, do, and write books. Collegiate fencer, archer, am I. Keep that up and I'll show you what I can "do." Hehe.

On to the issue at hand: What exactly do we have to LOSE by talking to GCA? What, will CDG attack us? That's what we're already thinking might happen someday. We don't even have to send it officially- just an email from an underling pointing out some facts. I'd be happy to write it- speaking as a teacher and an administrator in other venues, I can be quite pleasant and diplomatic when it is called for. Even if GCA *is* currently in bed with CDG, that letter will at least make some people go "Y'know....he's right about this....." I can promise you at least that much. At best, it might have GCA launching that attack we're hoping will start between them. Come to think of it, maybe I should talk to Togas about getting some limited role within the FAM. I certainly offer opinions about what they should be doing often enough.

Don't doubt Machiavelli. You can find his fingerprints on just about everything these days. And whether GCA knows it or not, likes it or not, is in bed with CDG or not... they have a good bit to gain by wiping them out. We know what GCA may not: That it is entirely possible to wipe CDG out at the present time.

Side thought: Does GCA know "What's up here?" Did they ever get a warrior past before CDG blocked off the bottleneck? We always assumed they were only trying to block us off- could be they were going for a block the other way, too. It's possible GCA thinks CDG has lots of great land up here and is holding off as a result, if they never got a look at New Amazonia north of CDG.

	22-05-2003 16:22									#87
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I admit lots of what F-P says makes sense... we have never seen any GCA explorer North of their border... it may very well be that they know nothing about the land CDG has to their disposal. Arranging an "informal" (yet "official") chat, talking about how CDG cuts off CFC at the Northern isthmus with a remote, very corrupted city, while having only the capital and 2 pretty crappy cities in the South... not a bad idea.

Togas, what do you think? WhiteBandit seems to be a perfect person for this kind of chit-chat...

And what about asking them about a worldmap swap? (once we discover MM, which is in 9 turns max, I think). They may be as interested in knowing what the land North of CDG looks as we are in knowing what the situation of GCA is like.

Getting our map, they would certainly realize that CDG must attack somebody in order to survive... may make them more paranoid and less likely to trade with CDG... plus, they would be able to watch CDG growing... just an idea...

	22-05-2003 17:26									#88
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I'm not sure we would want it to even be informal/official. We've already had debates over whether or not that is even possible- I'd play it more as a "rogue element" leak or just a "look, here's how it is, take it or leave it" play.

The less official it is, the more deniability and "not what APO actually intended, unauthorized" blah blah blah we can throw at it if things backfire.

	22-05-2003 19:32									#89
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I think what F-P is suggesting is worth a shot. I have complete faith that WB can get to the bottom of it too!

As far a trading our WM with GCA....I'm a little sketchy; couldn't we take a screen shot of what CDG has and send that to them once we have MM? Leaving out the North of Our territorry.

	22-05-2003 19:47									#90
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Well, now you are starting a more fundamental debate, Dom. Perhaps a thread on war or building would be the place to start.

That would be interesting, but that's not what I'm getting at at all! What I've been trying to say is simply: given that we want to go to war with CDG, it may be more advantageous for them to attack us, instead of the other way around. I know this seems backward, but think about it: once their Immortals have been dealt with using our entrenched Mercs. and counter-attacking Swordsmen, we'll be in a good position to then grab their cities.

The fact that playing defensively/builder is condusive to the goal of this point, but is not equivalent to it.


Dominae